06/19 ESPN & DX.com Speculation

[xTitan]

PP....my private messages don't work, can't send.

[europa]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK. So if you can trade back or trade the pick and get a proven vet, that could end up doing your team much more good than just keeping the pick and hoping you get a good player and not a decent role player.

[ReasonablySober]

pp, the only team you're hearing that wants to straight deal their pick away is Portland. Other teams are simply interested in moving up or down.

[LUKE23]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK. So if you can trade back or trade the pick and get a proven vet, that could end up doing your team much more good than just keeping the pick and hoping you get a good player and not a decent role player.

Not many teams are trying to trade back, many teams are trying to trade up, there is a difference. You get better players the higher you pick, it's just how it is.

I have zero interest in just amassing average depth. The teams that are trying to move up are not giving us good or impact players to do so, so I'll take the guy who has a better chance of being special.

[paulpressey25]

pp, the only team you're hearing that wants to straight deal their pick away is Portland. Other teams are simply interested in moving up or down.

But last year no one wanted to move down....that is what I'm getting at. Durant and Oden were untouchable. This year Beasley is apparently touchable. We couldn't move up for Conley or Horford. Philly couldn't get up to Yi even though they reportedly offered us three #1's and Yi said he wasn't playing here.

[smauss]

Luke, I'm also interested (2nd Rnd) in this Gary Forbes kid from UMass. Sounds like he's put up some huge numbers at the camps. Do you or anyone else know much about him?

[europa]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK. So if you can trade back or trade the pick and get a proven vet, that could end up doing your team much more good than just keeping the pick and hoping you get a good player and not a decent role player.

Not many teams are trying to trade back, many teams are trying to trade up, there is a difference.

The Heat and Timberwolves are reportedly trying to trade back. I don't recall the last time the teams with the second and third pick were looking to move back in the draft. This is pretty unprecedented - at least in recent memory. The Grizzlies are another team that may be looking to move back. The Bucks are another team that has been receptive to inquiries about moving back. That's 3-4 teams in the Top 8 (and three in the Top 5) that are at least open to the idea of trading back. This rarely happens in an NBA draft. Now maybe none of them do eventually trade down, but I think it's rather significant that so many teams are considering it. That isn't the norm for an NBA draft.

[ReasonablySober]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK.

The odds are better that Miami ends up with Mayo than Beasley. That doesn't happen in a draft with only two clear stars.

[LUKE23]

Luke, I'm also interested (2nd Rnd) in this Gary Forbes kid from UMass. Sounds like he's put up some huge numbers at the camps. Do you or anyone else know much about him?

If this is directed at me I didn't get to see any full UMass games this year, don't know much about the kid.

[bango_the_buck]

Bingo. They are not moving Oden, Roy, Aldridge, and IMO there is nothing else on that team I'm that interested in that I'd move back five spots for and miss out on Alexander. No thanks.

I don't get the "I want to move back in the draft" crowd at all. There are better players at 8 than there are in the mid teens, and we are not going to get an impact player by moving back anyway.

Improve the talent-base of this team, don't add just a bunch of ok but not impact players.

Keep 8, move up in the draft, or make a package to land a star. No other scenarios need apply.

I'd strongly consider Simmons/Gadz/#8 for LaFrentz/#13. And if we could somehow get them to throw in the rights to Rudy Fernandez (not likely), I'd be all over it... At #13 we would likely be assured one of either Randolph/Rush...

[LUKE23]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK. So if you can trade back or trade the pick and get a proven vet, that could end up doing your team much more good than just keeping the pick and hoping you get a good player and not a decent role player.

Not many teams are trying to trade back, many teams are trying to trade up, there is a difference.

The Heat and Timberwolves are reportedly trying to trade back. I don't recall the last time the teams with the second and third pick were looking to move back in the draft. This is pretty unprecedented - at least in recent memory. The Grizzlies are another team that may be looking to move back. The Bucks are another team that has been receptive to inquiries about moving back. That's 3-4 teams in the Top 8 (and three in the Top 5) that are at least open to the idea of trading back. This rarely happens in an NBA draft. Now maybe none of them do eventually trade down, but I think it's rather significant that so many teams are considering it. That isn't the norm for an NBA draft.

Well, from everything that has come out, it's more that the teams are open to moving back, not that they are explicitly looking to get rid of the pick and move back. I think there is a difference. The Clippers are reportedly offering #7/next years first (protected) and the pick back in the Jaric deal for #3 (this was on a Minny radio station, my buddy called me with the rumor). Obviously McHale would be dumb to turn down three firsts for one, IMO.

It's all in the context of what is being offered, we don't know. But teams aren't just saying, "man I just don't want to use this pick".

This is a good draft in the top 9 or so. There is a definite dropoff after that, IMO.

[ReasonablySober]

Maybe it was Katz or Ford but the quote today was '...the whole world is trying to move up to three'.

[europa]

Luke, can you remember the last time 3 of the Top 5 teams in an NBA draft were reportedly actively trying to trade down? I've been following this game for a long time and I can't remember the last time that happened - at least in the recent lottery era. Again, maybe Thursday night nobody trades down so all of this will be rendered meaningless. But I still don't recall the last time there were so much speculation that centered on the top teams in the lottery all wanting to trade down. Now granted, two of the teams (Minnesota and Memphis) have incompetent GMs who made two absolutely horrible trades within the past year. But even taking their GM's ineptitude into consideration I still think this is pretty unprecedented.

[LUKE23]

I forget which reporter said or wrote it but his comment recently about this draft is that it isn't necessarily deep in impact players, but deep in solid starters and role players. That's been my belief as well. I think that's a big reason why so many teams in the Top 10 are trying to trade their pick. You have two clear stars in the draft and then a large number of guys who could be good but might also just be OK.

The odds are better that Miami ends up with Mayo than Beasley. That doesn't happen in a draft with only two clear stars.

I don't know that the odds are better. I will predict right now that Miami will draft Beasley.

[El Duderino]

I agree. We rag on CV here but his trade value has to be significantly higher than Morrison's. .

I agree. The other thing that you hinted at above was the way these guys from slots 3-15 have gyrated up and down the past three months. I still maintain that all of us on this board are too hard wired from how good last years draft was and are equating all these 2008 guys with the guys in slots 3-15 from last year's draft.

I just don't think they match up. And given that the reports keep rolling the last month (and getting louder each hour) that so many teams want to deal their top ten pick, you understand that this draft is a crapshoot. Sure, there will be a couple gems but I think fewer than last year and who knows which guys those will be.

Last year we didn't hear any of this stuff about the teams in slots 3-15 wanting to deal their pick. Everyone just hoped like hell the guy they wanted would somehow, someway slip to them. If not, they knew there were 3 other decent guys on a lower tier they would love to have.

Looking back though at last years draft, it may have been over hyped

After Oden/Durant/Horford

Conley--I still like his potential, but he was far from dazzling as a rookie

Green--I thought he was overrated going into the draft. He'll likely be a solid pro, but i'd bet against him being anything special.

Yi-- He no doubt flashed some promising things early on and he had multiple issues that worked against him succeeding greatly as a rookie, but his second half collapse and age questions are legit concerns.

Brewer-- He was the one guy i wanted the Bucks to avoid at all costs and he had an ugly rookie season. Yet another McHale mistake.

Wright-- He's still a toothpick trying to develop into a quality starting PF one day, it's going to take time before we know how good he ends up, but i'm very skeptical that he becomes anything special.


It wouldn't shock me if the players drafted 4-8 in this years draft end up being as good or better than last years.

[LUKE23]

Luke, can you remember the last time 3 of the Top 5 teams in an NBA draft were reportedly actively trying to trade down? I've been following this game for a long time and I can't remember the last time that happened - at least in the recent lottery era. Again, maybe Thursday night nobody trades down so all of this will be rendered meaningless. But I still don't recall the last time there were so much speculation that centered on the top teams in the lottery all wanting to trade down. Now granted, two of the teams (Minnesota and Memphis) have incompetent GMs who made two absolutely horrible trades within the past year. But even taking their GM's ineptitude into consideration I still think this is pretty unprecedented.

I don't see them as "actively trying to trade down". I see them listening to offers for the pick. Like I said, what the Clippers are reportedly offering for 3 is a deal that you really can't turn down. It's all in the context of the deal. If someone is offering a ton to get that pick, then it's in the best interest of the team with the high pick to make the move. But it seems that some are trying to portray this as teams looking to move their pick if at all possible, when that is not the case.

I think there will be deals made, possibly involving the higher picks. But IMO you will see quite a bit given up for those picks.

[paulpressey25]

Maybe it was Katz or Ford but the quote today was '...the whole world is trying to move up to three'.

It is because the perceived price for #3 this year isn't that steep. If McHale truly believed there was a sure fire difference maker there (ala Horford last year or Carmelo in 2003) he wouldn't have the window open for business.

[ReasonablySober]

Horford's a good player in that Oakley role but I doubt he ever leads a team or makes an All Star game. There's a reason West looked like he just slept with sister lotto night last year. It was a two player draft followed by maybey the biggest drop in draft history.

[Simulack]

Horford's a good player in that Oakley role but I doubt he ever leads a team or makes an All Star game. There's a reason West looked like he just slept with sister lotto night last year. It was a two player draft followed by maybey the biggest drop in draft history.

I agree. Horford is a nice player but in general I think he is overrated. I watched many Hawks games and he was exactly what I expected - very solid rookie who I'd love to have on my team but never really does anything that extraordinary. The fact that he got serious consideration for ROY only shows how weak the much hyped 2007 class was its rookie year. Lots of lottery picks didn't play (B. Wright) or played poorly (Yi and Conley at times) so there wasn't a ton of competition.

If he was in this draft, he'd still go 3 at best (although Minny would be unlikely to draft him)- no team in their right mind would take him ahead of Rose or Beasley.

Again, nothing against him. I'd love to have him as he projects to be a solid starter for the next 10 years. But when people evaluate him, he benefits from being the steady player in a draft class that has been a disappointment so far.

[bango_the_buck]

Someone put a link to an article by J.D. Mo on sportsbubbler.com (I'm not familiar with either) in the comments to the "Hammond considers No. 8" post on the Bucks Blog on JSonline. He claims to have been at the Alexander/Randolph workout and said that Randolph stole the show and is likely our pick...

http://community.sportsbubbler.com/blogs/the_bob_boozer_jinx/archive/2008/06/23/randolph-is-the-pick.aspx