PG Cavs - Bucks Survive

tedbrogen · Post #81 » by **tedbrogen** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:07 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
Bucksmaniac wrote:
If the Cavs shoot an average pct from 3 they win this by double digits, I know you’re one of the rosy posters on here but it’s fair to address concerns down the road for this team given they seem to be getting off the hook in the regular season. Somewhat of a continuation of last season in that sense, their Net Rating/Margin of Victory was underwhelming considering they had the best record in the league and then they get exposed in the Playoffs. Worried about a similar fate but an inverse type of team with great offense and questionable at best defense.

If the Cavs shoot an average pct from three and JA shoot his normal average from two, Bucks still win. Or if Cavs shoot an average pct from three and Giannis doesn’t miss all those dunks/layups in the first half, Bucks still win.

We can do this what if all day. The difference in the game was the Bucks turning it on in the third to put up 40.

Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

Post the shot quality stats from last night then.

Daver · Post #82 » by **Daver** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:11 pm

tedbrogen wrote:
jimmybones wrote:Moving Beasley to the bench completely negates his best trait, hitting these wide open threes he's getting due to the enormous gravity of Giannis and Dame's existence.

This. He’s an absolute killer on those corner threes and even if the opponent closes out in time, he side steps it and buries it anyways.

Also, he’s giving by far the most effort on D for the starters and is nowhere near the most abused guy in the starting lineup.

Taking nothing away from allen but damn beas shoots that ball so much quicker than allen his release is so fast n ill tell you when ges shooting from the corner its like its a given its going in 47% from 3 is astounding

jimmybones · Post #83 » by **jimmybones** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:16 pm

tedbrogen wrote:
jimmybones wrote:Moving Beasley to the bench completely negates his best trait, hitting these wide open threes he's getting due to the enormous gravity of Giannis and Dame's existence.

This. He’s an absolute killer on those corner threes and even if the opponent closes out in time, he side steps it and buries it anyways.

Also, he’s giving by far the most effort on D for the starters and is nowhere near the most abused guy in the starting lineup.

Yep, a lot of guys can hit wide open looks but I've been really impressed by that side step and quick release you reference, not all spot up guys have that ability. Defenses are already in hell when Giannis, Dame and Middleton are on the floor that any others sharing the floor with them are by default are not going to be the focus of the defense, we don't need shot creation out of that spot, just a dude that makes scrambling defenses pay and he's been damn good at that.

tedbrogen · Post #84 » by **tedbrogen** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:19 pm

Beas is shooting 58% on corner threes.

When Giannis or Dame drive teams have to choose between helping and that. lol.

MVP2110 · Post #85 » by **MVP2110** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:22 pm

tedbrogen wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
If the Cavs shoot an average pct from three and JA shoot his normal average from two, Bucks still win. Or if Cavs shoot an average pct from three and Giannis doesn’t miss all those dunks/layups in the first half, Bucks still win.

We can do this what if all day. The difference in the game was the Bucks turning it on in the third to put up 40.

Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

Post the shot quality stats from last night then.

Per NBA.com the Cavs were 0/22 on wide open 3s last night. They were 4/10 on open 3s and 2/11 on tightly guarded 3s. Now I'd imagine most night the Cavs shoot much better than 0/22 on wide open 3s. The fact they shot that bad is insane

Daver · Post #86 » by **Daver** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:22 pm

tedbrogen wrote:Beas is shooting 58% on corner threes.

When Giannis or Dame drive teams have to choose between helping and that. lol.

58% wtf absolutely amazing got to be top 5 yes?

randy84 · Post #87 » by **randy84** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:29 pm

Bucks Def. Rating:
Lopez: 112.3
Middleton: 112.9
Beasley: 113.3
Giannis: 113.4
AJ Green: 113.8
Beauchamp: 114.2
Lillard: 114.6
Payne: 115
Connaughton: 115
Portis: 115.5
AJJ: 118.3

Net Rating:
Middleton: 10.6
AJ Green: 8.4
Giannis: 8.2
Beasley: 7.8
Lillard: 7.1
Portis: 6.4
Lopez: 5.4
Connaughton: 5.1
Beauchamp: 4.6
Payne: 1.6
AJJ: -5.1

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612749/players-advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING

MiltownHawkeye · Post #88 » by **MiltownHawkeye** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:30 pm

My favorite thing about Beasley this season continues to be the fact that LeBron and the Lakers completely failed to make him work

Daver · Post #89 » by **Daver** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:36 pm

MiltownHawkeye wrote:My favorite thing about Beasley this season continues to be the fact that LeBron and the Lakers completely failed to make him work

And unless i missed something over beas 7 years in the league never ever geard him being a dick beaing hard to work with bad locker room guy.Listening to him talk hes very happy to be here in milwaukee said he felt welcome from day 1.HES been the perfect fit here a better O version on allen.

Daver · Post #90 » by **Daver** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:37 pm

randy84 wrote:Bucks Def. Rating:
Lopez: 112.3
Middleton: 112.9
Beasley: 113.3
Giannis: 113.4
AJ Green: 113.8
Beauchamp: 114.2
Lillard: 114.6
Payne: 115
Connaughton: 115
Portis: 115.5
AJJ: 118.3

Net Rating:
Middleton: 10.6
AJ Green: 8.4
Giannis: 8.2
Beasley: 7.8
Lillard: 7.1
Portis: 6.4
Lopez: 5.4
Connaughton: 5.1
Beauchamp: 4.6
Payne: 1.6
AJJ: -5.1

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612749/players-advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING

Forgive me dont know how that works but is this saying beas is the 3rd worst or 3rd best on D rating

German Athens · Post #91 » by **German Athens** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:38 pm

MiltownHawkeye wrote:My favorite thing about Beasley this season continues to be the fact that LeBron and the Lakers completely failed to make him work

The list is much longer than just Beasley, too.

randy84 · Post #92 » by **randy84** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:53 pm

Daver wrote:
randy84 wrote:Bucks Def. Rating:
Lopez: 112.3
Middleton: 112.9
Beasley: 113.3
Giannis: 113.4
AJ Green: 113.8
Beauchamp: 114.2
Lillard: 114.6
Payne: 115
Connaughton: 115
Portis: 115.5
AJJ: 118.3

Net Rating:
Middleton: 10.6
AJ Green: 8.4
Giannis: 8.2
Beasley: 7.8
Lillard: 7.1
Portis: 6.4
Lopez: 5.4
Connaughton: 5.1
Beauchamp: 4.6
Payne: 1.6
AJJ: -5.1

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612749/players-advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING

Forgive me dont know how that works but is this saying beas is the 3rd worst or 3rd best on D rating

3rd best.
Apparently, Griffin's defensive scheme works for him.

Post #93 » by **Prez** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:58 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

Post the shot quality stats from last night then.

Per NBA.com the Cavs were 0/22 on wide open 3s last night. They were 4/10 on open 3s and 2/11 on tightly guarded 3s. Now I'd imagine most night the Cavs shoot much better than 0/22 on wide open 3s. The fact they shot that bad is insane

Yeah, I saw that 0/22 on wide open 3s stat too, and I was curious how much of that stat was BS so I watched the play-by-play clips of every 3 that Cleveland missed. And while there were a few that I wouldn't consider "wide open", I counted around 19 missed 3s by Cleveland that were definitely open and clean looks. We got a big gift from the shooting variance gods last night which canceled out their 64 points in the paint and masked another wack defensive game overall.

RRyder823 · Post #94 » by **RRyder823** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:06 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
Bucksmaniac wrote:
If the Cavs shoot an average pct from 3 they win this by double digits, I know you’re one of the rosy posters on here but it’s fair to address concerns down the road for this team given they seem to be getting off the hook in the regular season. Somewhat of a continuation of last season in that sense, their Net Rating/Margin of Victory was underwhelming considering they had the best record in the league and then they get exposed in the Playoffs. Worried about a similar fate but an inverse type of team with great offense and questionable at best defense.

If the Cavs shoot an average pct from three and JA shoot his normal average from two, Bucks still win. Or if Cavs shoot an average pct from three and Giannis doesn’t miss all those dunks/layups in the first half, Bucks still win.

We can do this what if all day. The difference in the game was the Bucks turning it on in the third to put up 40.

Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

1 question

Why the **** are we useing a predictor for a game after we know the result?

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

MVP2110 · Post #95 » by **MVP2110** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:11 pm

RRyder823 wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
If the Cavs shoot an average pct from three and JA shoot his normal average from two, Bucks still win. Or if Cavs shoot an average pct from three and Giannis doesn’t miss all those dunks/layups in the first half, Bucks still win.

We can do this what if all day. The difference in the game was the Bucks turning it on in the third to put up 40.

Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

1 question

Why the **** are we useing a predictor for a game after we know the result?

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

Because allowing an NBA team to shoot 22 wide open 3s(and another 10 open 3s) is generally not a recipe for success. It worked last night which is good(and lord knows the Bucks have been on the wrong side of shooting variance plenty of times) but there are still legitimate reasons to be worried about our defense. Understanding when a team gets lucky or unlucky is important

RRyder823 · Post #96 » by **RRyder823** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:19 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

1 question

Why the **** are we useing a predictor for a game after we know the result?

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

Because allowing an NBA team to shoot 22 wide open 3s(and another 10 open 3s) is generally not a recipe for success. It worked last night which is good(and lord knows the Bucks have been on the wrong side of shooting variance plenty of times) but there are still legitimate reasons to be worried about our defense. Understanding when a team gets lucky or unlucky is important

Ok but then normalize everything for both teams and just look at the spreadsheet

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

MVP2110 · Post #97 » by **MVP2110** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:26 pm

RRyder823 wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:
1 question

Why the **** are we useing a predictor for a game after we know the result?

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

Because allowing an NBA team to shoot 22 wide open 3s(and another 10 open 3s) is generally not a recipe for success. It worked last night which is good(and lord knows the Bucks have been on the wrong side of shooting variance plenty of times) but there are still legitimate reasons to be worried about our defense. Understanding when a team gets lucky or unlucky is important
Ok but then normalize everything for both teams and just look at the spreadsheet

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

All I'm saying is it is important to recognize when the Bucks are lucky or unlucky. We just saw a direct example of this last week when the Bucks had a shooting variance game go in their favor in game 1 vs the Knicks and then when the shooting normalized on Xmas day the Bucks lost by a decent margin. It's important to understand the underlying reasons of a W or a L and not just look at Wins and Losses

Finn · Post #98 » by **Finn** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:52 pm

tedbrogen wrote:
jimmybones wrote:Moving Beasley to the bench completely negates his best trait, hitting these wide open threes he's getting due to the enormous gravity of Giannis and Dame's existence.

This. He’s an absolute killer on those corner threes and even if the opponent closes out in time, he side steps it and buries it anyways.

Also, he’s giving by far the most effort on D for the starters and is nowhere near the most abused guy in the starting lineup.

But we were all told multiple times that this wasn't possible. :dontknow:

Bucksmaniac · Post #99 » by **Bucksmaniac** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:58 pm

RRyder823 wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
tedbrogen wrote:
If the Cavs shoot an average pct from three and JA shoot his normal average from two, Bucks still win. Or if Cavs shoot an average pct from three and Giannis doesn’t miss all those dunks/layups in the first half, Bucks still win.

We can do this what if all day. The difference in the game was the Bucks turning it on in the third to put up 40.

Normalized shooting is a thing and is usually a better predictor of games. If you normalized last night's shooting performances then the Bucks lose pretty handidly. We saw this a couple week ago, the Bucks had a massive shooting advantage against the Knicks on Dec 23 but on Xmas shooting was basically even and the Bucks lost handidly. Shooting Variance is a very real thing that should be accounted for when judging a game

1 question

Why the **** are we useing a predictor for a game after we know the result?

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

We are using it to assess our overall play and realize we did not really have the great road effort the score indicates. We did have a great 3rd quarter and that along with shooting variance sure masked the rest of the game.

greekbuck34 · Post #100 » by **greekbuck34** » Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:34 pm

randy84 wrote:
Daver wrote:
randy84 wrote:Bucks Def. Rating:
Lopez: 112.3
Middleton: 112.9
Beasley: 113.3
Giannis: 113.4
AJ Green: 113.8
Beauchamp: 114.2
Lillard: 114.6
Payne: 115
Connaughton: 115
Portis: 115.5
AJJ: 118.3

Net Rating:
Middleton: 10.6
AJ Green: 8.4
Giannis: 8.2
Beasley: 7.8
Lillard: 7.1
Portis: 6.4
Lopez: 5.4
Connaughton: 5.1
Beauchamp: 4.6
Payne: 1.6
AJJ: -5.1

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612749/players-advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING

Forgive me dont know how that works but is this saying beas is the 3rd worst or 3rd best on D rating

3rd best.
Apparently, Griffin's defensive scheme works for him.

I think it's mostly because our offense is much better with him, so we make more shots and we throw less bricks so in the end the opponent has less chances to hurt us in the fastbreak.