Woelfel on WSSP - 1/29

[ReasonablySober]

I just looked quick, we were 12-10 with all three of Redd/RJ/Bogut playing. Small sample, but projects to around 45 wins I think. I will say I thought this team was playing pretty damn good overall basketball when all three of those guys were on the floor, definitely a playoff team and probably would have at least gave a good fight in the first round. Redd's injury has to change Hammond's thinking though, because you can't go into next season with a $65M payroll when Redd is starting the year on the sidelines.

Honest question because I don't know, but who did they play in those 12 wins?

[LUKE23]

@OKC
@NYK
CHI
CHA
IND
@MIA
@NYK
LAC
UTA
@SAN
CHA
@WAS

[trwi7]

I just looked quick, we were 12-10 with all three of Redd/RJ/Bogut playing. Small sample, but projects to around 45 wins I think. I will say I thought this team was playing pretty damn good overall basketball when all three of those guys were on the floor, definitely a playoff team and probably would have at least gave a good fight in the first round. Redd's injury has to change Hammond's thinking though, because you can't go into next season with a $65M payroll when Redd is starting the year on the sidelines.

Honest question because I don't know, but who did they play in those 12 wins?

Wins: @ Oklahoma City, @ New York, vs Chicago, vs Charlotte, vs Indiana, @ Miami, @ New York, vs New York, vs Utah (without Boozer and Williams I believe), @ San Antonio, vs Charlotte, @ Washington

Losses: @ Chicago, vs Toronto, @ Los Angeles Lakers, @ Phoenix, @ Golden State, @ Philadelphia, vs Detroit, @ Houston, @ Minnesota, vs Miami

[ReasonablySober]

So three wins against .500 or better teams.

ETA: Thanks for looking it up.

[LUKE23]

So three wins against .500 or better teams.

ETA: Thanks for looking it up.

Yes, but if you think about it, you play maybe slightly over half your games against sub .500 teams. If the Bucks won 44-45, 30+ of those wins were likely going to be against .500 or less teams. If we were going to be beating .500+ teams consistently, then you're going to be pushing 50 wins.

[kebzach]

Talking about Redd's injury. Talked to people around the league who say it takes a full year to recover from that injury.

Gee, that's breaking news. He could have talked to the 10,000 people per year that tear their ACL's and they could have told him that too. In fact, 12 months is more like the minimum before a guy is back to 100%. Redd could be "back" in November for example, but he won't be back and 100% before 1-24-2010. Since that's my birthday, it won't be hard for me to remember the date of the injury or the date of his return to 100%ness.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

From the Portland board here... Portland's beat writer today said in an interview that Pritchard is in discussions with an Eastern Conference team for a player the Blazers have been trying to get for awhile, but that the Eastern Conference team has just added a "sweetener" player to the deal. He said that a PG and SF would be coming to the Blazers and that it would potentially turn the Blazers into a contending team, perhaps by next year.

Portland has been after Richard Jefferson for about a year now. Ramon Sessions is a guy the Blazers liked a lot before the draft and could be the "sweetener." The beat writer said that Portland would be sending our LaFrenz's expiring, plus two of its bench rotation players. Speculation is Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez.

What do you guys think?

Well, this does sound plausible.

It kills me to have to add Sessions to THIS deal though if that's what we're getting back, and I'm not a fan of this deal, but this would be interesting, I suppose.

Of course, Kohl could very well butt-in and block this deal too if he blocked the Conley deal.

I fell like each trade we hear about gets progressively worse. The Landry deal, then the Conley deal, and now this deal.

We'd need to add in more salary to make this work, such as Malik Allen or Elson or Lue. Those players are inconsequential enough to just be considered "filler" and might not have been mentioned in whatever rumor is floating around there. It is more likely that would be the deal rather than people concluding that since the original deal DevilDetails mentioned didn't work, that it would be significantly altered by substituting Sessions for Ridnour or Gadzuric, or changing one of the young Portland players coming back.

Thanks for passing this along, DevilDetails

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

If we're looking at our record with everyone healthy, we should only be comparing it against the records of other teams who also have everyone healthy. It doesn't make any kind of point to say that our selective healthy record is better than the complete record of other teams, injuries included.

[Rockmaninoff]

How can anyone watch RJ and not think that an expiring contract alone wouldn't be a gift from the gods? My worry is Hammond would go to Pritchard with RJ for Raef, get laughed off the phone and have to throw in Sessions or JA.

Had the same idea as you concerning a straight up deal of LaFrentz for RJ in a salary dump for the good of the team's future.

I watched the Portland game on DirectTV and listened to the Portland announcers. They made mention of the fact that Portland had Sessions in for workouts year before last and had Alexander in for workouts prior to this year's draft. They also mentioned that both players performed well during workouts.

Your point is well-taken, just drop RJ in a salary dump and work with our young players. Don't get trapped into including other young talent on our team. If we could get another young player from Portland in the deal for RJ fine, but if not just accept a straight up deal.

People won't like it, but then they aren't watching the same games I've been watching, nor do they know the salary restrictions RJ's contract has on the Bucks - fans should understand though.

I still think Jefferson for LaFrentz/Webster is plausible.

Webster has been out since the first game of the season, and it's not like they've missed him much. Their GM Pritchard might say that he wouldn't make an in season trade, but I do think he is itching to use LaFrentz's expiring in some capacity.

They have no one on the roster with playoff experience. Steve Blake doesn't really count. Jefferson has 2 NBA Finals appearances. I'm guessing he would look better in Portland, because he wouldn't have to be one of the main cogs. Just a really good role player. Would probably average 30 or so minutes per game.

It would probably take about 10 games for Jefferson to acclimate himself. What he could add as a steadying influence, on a team poised to make noise, is worth LaFrentz and Webster. The Bucks wouldn't be asking for that much.

LaFrentz and Webster isn't a whole lot different from Simmons and Yi. I would say it is close to the same value. Two broken down vets and two young players who haven't shown a lot thus far. Maybe LaFrentz contract is better than Simmons, but that isn't a huge deal.

I guess I just don't see the downside/risk for Portland. They have the money and capspace, and they've got enough young players. Why not bring in a veteran with big playoff experience, when the team is about to become a contender?

[paulpressey25]

Yeah, even if they sent the Bucks Webster, that is a gamble for us not Portland, and could be a case of Portland unloading a guy who has a stress fracture and has a long-term contract. Could you imagine if Kohl took on Webster's deal and the guy never got over the foot injury, which is plausible.

Webster has reduced value right now IMO given his type of injury and contract. And while he's a nice piece, he hasn't shown anything in three years in the league that they would be parting with a future all-star. We might be doing them a favor clearing out a semi-injured guy who may only be their 3rd SG and who they have $4.5mm a year allocated to the next three seasons.

Edit: Portland guys know about stress fractures. Sam Bowie, Bill Walton. And we all know about Grant Hill. Guys with stress fractures in their foot at age 22 like Webster can be toxic.

[midranger]

Can you imagine if the eventual outcomes of Hammond's blundering is...

Simmons, Yi, and Sessions for Raef Lafrentz? Had someone suggested that was Hammond's big move over the summer, the pitch forks would have come out.

[paul]

Can you imagine if the eventual outcomes of Hammond's blundering is...

Simmons, Yi, and Sessions for Raef Lafrentz? Had someone suggested that was Hammond's big move over the summer, the pitch forks would have come out.

The fact that this board has gone insane over Jefferson and he hasn't been playing his best DOES NOT mean he's (and Ramon) only worth the Lafrentz expiring, as much as some here continually try to convince us of that.

[midranger]

Can you imagine if the eventual outcomes of Hammond's blundering is...

Simmons, Yi, and Sessions for Raef Lafrentz? Had someone suggested that was Hammond's big move over the summer, the pitch forks would have come out.

The fact that this board has gone insane over Jefferson and he hasn't been playing his best DOES NOT mean he's (and Ramon) only worth the Lafrentz expiring, as much as some here continually try to convince us of that.

To you perhaps. To NBA GMs perhaps not. We had a view into RJ's worth last summer and since then he's obviously declined as a player.

[paulpressey25]

To you perhaps. To NBA GMs perhaps not. We had a view into RJ's worth last summer and since then he's obviously declined as a player.

I never was a subscriber to Europa's thought that Redd had some value around the league. But I still think RJ does. I might be naive, but RJ is a perfect fit in Portland. When asked to be the man, RJ can't do it. But he's a capable playoff tested vet who's contract is bad but not toxic. At least with RJ, you sometimes get other things on the court.

The other thing is that everyone does better once they get traded from the Redd Bucks. People around the league know that.

[midranger]

RJ does have value around the NBA.

It's Simmons and Yi, minus whatever damage he's done with his declining play, minus the leverage that other teams hold knowing or salary cap issues.

Set you ceiling at Simmons and Yi and then look further down, that's where you'll find RJ's value around the NBA.

[paul]

To you perhaps. To NBA GMs perhaps not. We had a view into RJ's worth last summer and since then he's obviously declined as a player.

I never was a subscriber to Europa's thought that Redd had some value around the league. But I still think RJ does. I might be naive, but RJ is a perfect fit in Portland. When asked to be the man, RJ can't do it. But he's a capable playoff tested vet who's contract is bad but not toxic. At least with RJ, you sometimes get other things on the court.

The other thing is that everyone does better once they get traded from the Redd Bucks. People around the league know that.

RJ is the perfect fit on any one of 3-4 teams on the brink right now. He'd be a fantastic fit in possibly NO (depending on Peja), Pheonix, Dallas where Howard is clearly on the outs, SA, Portland, Toronto, even Utah. All those teams would feel they can still contend with a few smart additions save for maybe Toronto, all those teams have issues at SF or plain don't have one, all those teams have one or two very strong leaders and star type players, all those teams could use RJ.

There are half a dozen posters who talk like it's a fact that RJ is worth no more than an expiring when it's anything but. These things get repeated so many times that people just start to believe it. I would think all or some of those teams and possibly others would love to have him.

[paul]

RJ does have value around the NBA.

It's Simmons and Yi, minus whatever damage he's done with his declining play, minus the leverage that other teams hold knowing or salary cap issues.

Set you ceiling at Simmons and Yi and then look further down, that's where you'll find RJ's value around the NBA.

Aren't you the same guy who's been telling us how valuable Simmons contract was because it expires in 2010? Or was that someone else?

[midranger]

RJ does have value around the NBA.

It's Simmons and Yi, minus whatever damage he's done with his declining play, minus the leverage that other teams hold knowing or salary cap issues.

Set you ceiling at Simmons and Yi and then look further down, that's where you'll find RJ's value around the NBA.

Aren't you the same guy who's been telling us how valuable Simmons contract was because it expires in 2010? Or was that someone else?

That was probably someone else, but I can tell you about how much MORE valuable Raef Lafrentz's contract is than Bobby Simmons.

[midranger]

To you perhaps. To NBA GMs perhaps not. We had a view into RJ's worth last summer and since then he's obviously declined as a player.

I never was a subscriber to Europa's thought that Redd had some value around the league. But I still think RJ does. I might be naive, but RJ is a perfect fit in Portland. When asked to be the man, RJ can't do it. But he's a capable playoff tested vet who's contract is bad but not toxic. At least with RJ, you sometimes get other things on the court.

The other thing is that everyone does better once they get traded from the Redd Bucks. People around the league know that.

RJ is the perfect fit on any one of 3-4 teams on the brink right now. He'd be a fantastic fit in possibly NO (depending on Peja), Pheonix, Dallas where Howard is clearly on the outs, SA, Portland, Toronto, even Utah. All those teams would feel they can still contend with a few smart additions save for maybe Toronto, all those teams have issues at SF or plain don't have one, all those teams have one or two very strong leaders and star type players, all those teams could use RJ.

There are half a dozen posters who talk like it's a fact that RJ is worth no more than an expiring when it's anything but. These things get repeated so many times that people just start to believe it. I would think all or some of those teams and possibly others would love to have him.

Those teams all had a shot at RJ over the summer. They offered less than Simmons and Yi if they offered anything at all. After watching a half season of declining and quite frankly below average or worse play, now all of sudden the light bulb went on? I don't think so.

Also, I'm not saying that RJ is worth Lafrentz's contract, I'm actually saying that he's worth less tahn Lafrentz's contract.

[pilprin]

This works:

Damon Jones
6-3 PG / SG from Houston
1.5 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.5 apg in 8.8 minutes
Richard Jefferson
6-7 SF from Arizona
17.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.2 apg in 35.4 minutes
Outgoing Players
Martell Webster
6-7 SF from Seattle Prep (HS)
0.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg, 0.0 apg in 2.6 minutes
Raef LaFrentz
6-11 PF / C from Kansas
0.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg, 0.0 apg in 0.0 minutes


Isn't that pretty!