How good is Mo Williams?

[paulpressey25]

-= So instead of repeating myself ad nauseam, I'll talk about Mo. I've always been a big fan of his but realistically what chance is there that he moves out of the slightly above average tier?.

I went through a bunch of John Hollinger stats this morning to try and figure out where Mo fits into this.

On a PER basis among PG's, his PER is 17.21 which ranks him 13th. For comparison, Paul is number one with a 28.6. Billups is second with 24.5 and Nash is third at 22.8. (TJ and Calderon come in 4th and 5th BTW at approx 22)

True Shooting Percentage:
Looking at traditional stats like ppg, apg, and shooting percentage, Mo's got good ones. The problem is that there is nothing he does that is top tier or elite when you look at categories a PG should excel in. I know many of you are talking up Mo's FG percentage this year. Hollinger uses a formula that takes into account not only your FG%, but how many 3's you hit and how much you get to the line and calls it True Shooting percentage. i.e. how effective a scorer are you?

In TS percentage, Mo ranks 17th at .556%. Daniel Gibson is #1 at .640 but then Nash is at .638% and Billups is right behind him at .617%.

I think Mo is clearly improving his shooting this year, but the fact he doesn't take and make enough 3's or get to the line much is one reason why he isn't perceived as being an elite scoring PG. These other guys do that. They either hit 3's at a high rate or draw fouls or both.

Turnover Percentage:
Then I looked at Turnover percentage that measures what percentage of a players possessions end in a turnover. Mo is the 37th PG in TO's whereby 12.2% of his possessions end in a turnover. He's got some good company down there as Nash is at 42nd with 12.4%

But, after you discount Chris Quinn as the leader here with 6.4%, you see in the top ten guys like Calderon, Chris Paul, Billups, etc all in that 6.9% to 8% range.

What it means is that Mo doesn't do a good job of taking care of the ball. You can forgive Nash for being down there because of the Sun's fast pace but the top tier PG's by and large take care of the ball much better than Mo.

Assist Percentage:
The last major PG stat category is the assist percentage or how many of a player's possessions end in an assist. Calderon is #1 at 42.4% and Nash is second at 42.3%. Mo Williams ranks 29th at 28.7%. He's bookended by Chris Quinn and Rafer Alston. This stat isn't so damning because we know Mo's team-mates suck and Deron Williams and Chauncey are at about 31%, at least somewhat close to Mo's 28.7%. The problem is though that guys like Deron and Chauncey bring to the table an elite defensive skill that Mo doesn't have. And an elite skill in not turning the ball over.

But you can see that Mo isn't close to being a top-tier guy in making things happen with the ball. We can blame to supporting cast here to some extent but not totally. Chris Duhon in Chicago feeds a bunch of bricklayers but he's ranked 12th at 34.3% for example.

Summary:
Mo's doing ok as a PG, but he doesn't have one elite PG skill in any of these categories that you want your PG to rank high in. He's not in the top tier at creating, scoring, or taking care of the ball. And none of this stuff takes into account positional defense where we have to play a zone at times in part to stop Mo from getting abused on the screen and roll plays as admitted by Brian James the other night.

The positives though are that Mo is 25 and should continue to improve, as I think he's a better player this year. But if some of you are wondering why there is a subset of guys here who have their doubts on Mo as the future starting PG, these numbers help explain why. Mo's not the problem with this team by a long-shot, but he may not be the answer either.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Mo's an average or slightly above average starting point, and he's paid accordingly. He's neither a problem nor a solution here in Milwaukee. I like watching him because he plays hard and does a little of everything, but I also don't expect him to become much more than he currently is.

Live everyone else on the Bucks, if he were surrounded by better players, he'd look better. If the 2 and 3 in the starting lineup were great defenders, it wouldn't bother us that Mo is a poor one.

[unklchuk]

I believe Mo is a better than average guard - but not a core player and not a player who at this point has major developed skills in making his teammates better.

[upnorthfan]

Again my fellow Buck fan, stats lie. What are his stats in crunch time? Dominque Wilkens was the greatest player ever to play the first 44 minutes of a game, but always choked in crunch time.

Remember Game two this year against Charlotte? Mo doesn't know the there is five seconds left in the game (on an out of bounds play!!) and he stands there doing his normal over dribble stance as time expires.

Against the knicks he sees Yi wide open on the baseline from fifteen feet but passes to Redd as game clock is expiring. Redd is double teamed and luanches one of his patented off balance misses.

Mo is not a good decision maker. He definitely shows flashes but Mo basically is a two guard in a little mans body.

He and Redd have combined for 9 chocking acts late in games this season and the outcome undecided. As I said in a thread on here a month ago (and even in preseason) that the backcourt of Redd and williams will not win you much in the regular season much less the playoffs.

They are the worst defensive starting guard duo in the NBA.

One must go, I prefer to keep Mo and make him a 2, at least half his playing time.

[coolhandluke121]

Excellent post. It's not news of course, but it's nice to get some of the facts to support what most of us already know.

One thing in Mo's defense, true fg% is a little bit of an unfair stat because a player who gets fouled on a shot doesn't get credited with a fg attempt if he misses. (I'm not 100% positive about that but I think it's the case) So that really skews his scoring efficiency and true fg% stat. If one player goes 1-5 but gets fouled on the 4 shots he misses and makes all his free throws, the box-score will say he was 1-1 for 10 points and he'll have better efficiency stats than a player who goes 5-5 but doesn't go to the line at all. Is that fair?

This phenomenon allows some players to completely dominate the ball and the scoring and become total chuckers without seeing their stats suffer. In fact they end up looking like great players if you don't actually watch the game, but we all know their teams are in a bad place when this starts happening (not that it's the players fault, usually this happens when the team has no supporting cast). Anyway, I think a player should get a fg attempt if he misses the shot but got fouled. His fg% may suffer but his scoring shouldn't if he makes his free throws, so it balances out. The way it is now, there's no counterbalance; a player's stats actually benefit more from getting fouled on missed shots and making the ft's more than they benefit from making shots without getting fouled, but the end result is the same. Why should that be?

[upnorthfan]

Do some research on how the opposing backcourt does against our starting pair.

They at minumum always are a wash. Sometimes a scrub will look like a Hall of Famer against Redd and Mo. Whatever they get in numbers they give back to the opossing guards.

I should just copy and paste. Beating a dead horse.

[paulpressey25]

Here is how Hollinger defines True Shooting Percentage:

TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player

[paul]

For mine, and most others i assume, defense is the major issue with Mo. I'm happy with the improvements to his PG play this year, he's obviously working at it which shows he's coachable. He is now less often playing like a short SG and seems to be trying to involve his teammates more, but unfortunately his defense has become a real issue.
The fact as adam mentioned that our 2 spot is an average defender as well has made this problem all the more glaring, and the fact that his backup Ivey is a better defender has probably highlighted it as well. Many times this season we've been burnt from the perimeter by opposition teams, so our improved interior defense hasn't been able to help that much, and our defense overall has therefore not improved.
Much like you PP I agree that he's neither the problem or the solution as such, he's a nice piece, unforutately like a few other guys on this team he just needs to be surrounded by better pieces.
All that being said I like Mo, but if you could do me a deal for Kidd I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[upnorthfan]

Doesn't that meely mouth Charlie Bell post on here? What a waste of a roster spot.

[unklchuk]

Lack of anticipation and court vision are my view of Mo's shortcomings on offense. He currently adds less to team intelligence than you expect from a PG. But I've set aside my once-frequent comparisons of Mo to a "true" point guard - since we don't have one.

I think the team can win with Mo, but only if A) their shots are going in, or B) the individuals learn to play together, becoming good as a team at moving the ball and playing intelligently. Mo can be a happy part of that; he just IMO can't make it happen on his own.

[Chapter29]

Very nice post Press.

I posted the other night that I though Mo would start on maybe 1/2 the teams. Maybe. So he's right now a middle of the road starting PG imo. But thats ok. It really then just comes down to the rest of the team. How do they fit in with each other. In this case not so good.

Despite the stats, I am very happy with Mo's shooting and scoring ability. Perhaps not elite, but down right effective.

Passing, I feel he is improving. At least he is looking to get players involved. Its not his fault no one else outside of Redd can score.

Mo is learning to run this team and this time not as a scoring PG/SG. I like what he has done.

The problem is his defense. It continues to be poor and PG is a position where you don't want a weak defender.

From my perspective Mo - Redd need to be broken up whether that means Mo to the bench or a trade of either. As a Bucks GM every player on my team would be declared available. Including Mo. I would institute at least a small shake up right now. I would take the best offer available. The only 2 players I say we are frugal with are Yi and Bogut.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

The problem is his defense. It continues to be poor and PG is a position where you don't want a weak defender.

lol, which positions do you want weak defenders at?

[paulpressey25]

-=

lol, which positions do you want weak defenders at?

I get his point. I think PG is one of the more critical areas. If you get into the PG's head, he has a harder time setting up the offense. It throws everyone off on the other team.

But I'm not faulting Mo for all our defensive problems....no one on this team really wants to play defense anymore....even Bogut and Yi have fallen off the wagon. I think we really miss Desmond....he was the one guy who seemed to understand how to rotate.....

[upnorthfan]

Very nice post Press.

I posted the other night that I though Mo would start on maybe 1/2 the teams. Maybe. So he's right now a middle of the road starting PG imo. But thats ok. It really then just comes down to the rest of the team. How do they fit in with each other. In this case not so good.

Despite the stats, I am very happy with Mo's shooting and scoring ability. Perhaps not elite, but down right effective.

Passing, I feel he is improving. At least he is looking to get players involved. Its not his fault no one else outside of Redd can score.

Mo is learning to run this team and this time not as a scoring PG/SG. I like what he has done.

The problem is his defense. It continues to be poor and PG is a position where you don't want a weak defender.

From my perspective Mo - Redd need to be broken up whether that means Mo to the bench or a trade of either. As a Bucks GM every player on my team would be declared available. Including Mo. I would institute at least a small shake up right now. I would take the best offer available. The only 2 players I say we are frugal with are Yi and Bogut.

In the playoffs teams will shut Williams down. How? By putting length on him on defense and posting his a$$ up on offense (opposing team).

Sixth man has always been his best suited role, one he would never consider because of his name, Me Williams.

[Chapter29]

lol, which positions do you want weak defenders at?

lol?

Well since your PG is on the point off attack more often then probably any other player, yes I think its more important. Ideally of course you don't want weak defenders anywhere, but you can try and hide them at other positions. The C position is pretty important too because of course a good defender here can compensate for his teammates as the last line of defense.

So since you don't want poor defenders anywhere why is Mo starting then?

[europa]

I think Mo has improved to being an average starting PG in this league. I think he has made great strides in terms of his PG play and his understanding of the PG position - two things that were huge weaknesses for him in the past. Those are positives. Conversely, his defense remains atrocious and I agree with the point xTitan has made many times that Mo's Basketball IQ isn't always very high (a huge problem on this team with nearly every player - this really is a dumb basketball team) and that's why I'm not sure he's the right type of leader for this team. As much as anything, I think the Bucks need to get smarter players. I also think his contract is an issue since I don't believe he's worth the nearly $9M a year he'll be receiving from now on considering that's more than nearly every other young PG has received in recent years. So if the Bucks do decide to blow this team to smithereens, I'm not sure keeping Mo and his contract makes much sense.

[Chapter29]

In the playoffs team will shut Williams down. How? By putting lenth on him on defense and posting his a$$ up on offense (opposing team).

Sixth man has always been his best suited role, one he would never consider because of his name, Me Williams.

OK, well thats fine if they want to concentrate on Mo. Mo shouldn't be our best player, so thats great if they focus at all on him. Mo is a well balanced player. He can still make basketball plays being focused on.

I just I don't see Mo as a tiny PG. He's pretty strong and over 6 feet. He wont get abused in the post the way TJ did thats for sure and with 2 shot blockers around the basket that really doesn't worry me that much. If this team gels enough to get to the playoffs, Mo will be fine.

I would much prefer him as a 6th man, even at his salary. But right now there really isn't a PG on our roster even close to being worthy of starting. I would sooner just throw Sessions in there and hope for the best.

[Simulack]

I posted my opinion on him in the post-game thread:

"I've always been a big fan of his but realistically what chance is there that he moves out of the slightly above average tier?

Let's define that as top 10 at his position. Right now I'd probably rank him around the 12/13 area of starting PG's. How does he move into the top 10 in the next 2-3 years? There is just no way. The PG position has a lot of young talent right now in the NBA and there are only a few guys who are going to drop out of there due to age... and then there a lot of young guys who will probably move up like Conley...

You can't just say: Mo's slightly above average and only 25 so eventually he will be even better.. You have to look and evaluate him relative to other NBA PG's. I don't see a lot of upward mobility there.

The reason I like Mo is because, although he isn't an essential piece for a young rebuilding team, he is at least compatible with one. He's fairly young, coachable and has a reasonable contract. IMO Redd is an obstacle to a rebuilding team despite being a superior player. But there's no way Mo is ever the 6thish best PG in the NBA like Redd is in terms of SG's.

[paulpressey25]

Mo is similar to Bogut IMO....there are a lot of nice things he does but no one top-tier thing.

At the Center spot, I'd like either an elite scorer, rebounder or shotblocker. At the PG spot, I'd like an elite creator, ballhandler, defender or maybe scorer (along the lines of a Nash or Billups type).

Both these guys are just average middle of the pack virtually everything (and Mo's bad on defense and Bogut can't hit FT's)....yet in the NBA, the wins are produced by guys who can make game altering plays with some elite skill.

[Simulack]

Mo is similar to Bogut IMO....there are a lot of nice things he does but no one top-tier thing.

At the Center spot, I'd like either an elite scorer, rebounder or shotblocker. At the PG spot, I'd like an elite creator, ballhandler, defender or maybe scorer (along the lines of a Nash or Billups type).

Both these guys are just average middle of the pack virtually everything (and Mo's bad on defense and Bogut can't hit FT's)....yet in the NBA, the wins are produced by guys who can make game altering plays with some elite skill.

I agree on Bogut. He's a nice young player to have but I don't necessarily view him as a core piece because I don't think our team will be very successful unless he is the 3rd or 4th best player on the team.

The big issue with Bogut will be his contract. Right now he's a valuable player but he could easily move into the obstacle category if he gets a 10 million plus a year contract and doesn't significantly improve.

I really do think he is a pretty comparable player to Haywood right now and the Wizards have that guy for 5-6 million a year. Bogut at twice that would not be a good thing for the Bucks.

When you throw Yi into the mix with all his age questions, you start to wonder if we have ANY prospects that you can project to be more than "slightly above average" at their position.

The young talent on this team really sucks despite having a few lottery picks and a #1 thrown in there. Of course you can interpret that in many ways: need a new GM (maybe find one who doesn't draft based on who wears a suit?), shows the futility of playing the lottery game, shows the need for more lottery picks, etc...