DICK BAVETTA STATS IN BUCKS GAMES SINCE 1991-92

[SCassell19]

I have records going back to the 1991-92 season of every Bucks game (except 2 I cant find boxscores from) played with the final score, free throws, fouls called ect. I have records of who reffed each game as well. Since all this broke on Bavetta, and since Ive always thought he was the main game fixer in the NBA, I took a look at his records and stats when he reffed Bucks games. Some of it is interesting.

Record by year (Playoffs included):

91-92: 1-5
92-93: 3-2
93-94: 1-5
94-95: 3-3
95-96: 1-2
96-97: 0-2
97-98: 2-1
98-99: 1-2
99-00: 3-6
00-01: 0-7
01-02: 1-5
02-03: 3-2
03-04: 1-5
04-05: 1-5
05-06: 0-1
06-07: 2-2
07-08: 1-1

Overall: 24-56
Playoffs: 1-5

Notice how Bavetta's "worst" year was also the Bucks best percentage wise. The Bucks had a 16 game losing streak in games reffed by Bavetta. This happened from 2000-2002 (playoffs included). Keep in mind what the Bucks record was during that time (especially in 2000-01). Its not like that was a 16 game losing streak when the Bucks were horrible.

The Bucks are 31-48-1 against the spread in games reffed by Bavetta.

The Bucks are 13-20 Straight Up when they are favored in a Bavetta reffed game.

12-29 Overall on the road
12-27 Overall at home.

I wanted to know what the Bucks record was when they were the better team (record wise). The records I used for this research were the records for both teams at the end of the regular season. So if the Bucks finish 42-40 and played an opponent that was 39-43 at the end of the year...the Bucks were the "better team" even though its possible the other team had the better record at the time the game was played.

The Bucks are 11-19 when they are the "better team"

The Bucks are 4-8 when they are the "better team" and at home.

The Bucks are 9-27 when they are .500 or better at the end of that season.

The Bucks are 14-18 when their opponent is below .500 at the end of the season.

The Bucks are 10-38 when the opponent is .500 or better at the end of the year.

The Bucks are 11-26 in games decided by 6 or less

The Bucks are 6-13 in games decided by 7-10

The Bucks are 4-4 in games decided by 20+

In the 80 games the Bucks were outscored by 307 total points (3.84 per game). The Opponents shot 319 (3.99 per game) more free throws than the Bucks in those same 80 games.

48 times the opponent shot more free throws than the Bucks
23 times the Bucks shot more free throws than the opponent.
9 times it was equal.

24 times the opponent shot 10+ more free throws than the Bucks
8 times the Bucks shot 10+ more free throws than the opp.

21 times the opponent shot 60%+ of the total free throws shot in the game.
6 times the Bucks shot 60%+ of the total free throws in the game.

I also looked at games where the free throw differantial was greater than or equal to the point differential in the game. So if the Bucks shot 15 fewer free throws in a game and lost by 10 then it would qualify. I call these "fishy" games. Another rule is that the free throw differential must be 10 or more. So if the Bucks lose by 1 and the opponent shoots 1 more free throw...this doesnt count as a fishy game. They would have had to at least been outshot by 10 at the line for that to count.

There were a total of 20 "fishy" games. 16 were in favor of the opponent. 4 in favor of the Bucks.

The 3 refs in the infamous Sac-LAL game were Bavetta, Ted Bernhardt and Bob Delaney. Two of these guys were called "company men" by Donaghy...always doing things in the NBA's interest. It was obvious that it was in the NBAs interest to have the Lakers advance and send the Kings home.

Was it in the NBA's interest to keep the Bucks out of the 2001 Finals and have the 76ers in it? The key game in that series was game 4. The Bucks were up 2-1 at home and a 3-1 lead would have been very commanding. Dick Bavetta and Ted Bernhardt also reffed that game. Philadelphia shot twice as many free throws as the Bucks in that game. Im just saying...

So to recap...

16 game losing streak when Bavetta refs (just happens to be during the best few years in this 17 year study.

Bucks win 30% of the games Bavetta refs.

Bucks shoot more free throws only 28.8% of the time

Bucks only win 37% of the time when they are the "better" team.

Bucks only win 30.7% of the time AT HOME.

Bucks are 9-27 .250 when they are .500 or better at the end of that season.

In games where one team shoots 10+ more free throws, it is the Bucks opponent that shoots those extra ones 75% of the time.

When there is a "fishy" game (as described above) it is the opponent who is the benefit 80% of the time.

When one team shoots 60% or more of the total free throws it it the opponent that benefits 78% of the time.

Im not saying the word "fix", but perhaps theres too many people that have blinders on that need to take them off.

Any feedback? Any other refs I should research?

[europa]

I'm not sure what it all means but that's pretty damn good research. Well done.

I wish I could say it's fun to see things like this but it's actually pretty depressing. Not to go all Fox Mulder but there's so much smoke here that it's pretty hard to discount the possibility something has been going on and that Stern's fingerprints may be on at least some of it.

[paulpressey25]

You have the potential to really do some interesting things with what you have started. The problem with your current data is that it doesn't tell us how the Bucks did with other refs.

What I think I would do is make a spreadsheet with every ref who worked a Bucks game the last 15-years. Then put in what our "record" is with said ref being part of the crew each night. Then figure out 1 to 60 (or however many refs worked Bucks games over that period) who we did best with and who we did worse with W-L wise.

From that data then start looking at the FT discrepancy and where guys like Bavetta, Javie and Mauer rank.

Your data on it's surface indicates Bavetta has a bias against Milwaukee. Whether that is Stern induced or just Bavetta we don't know. But I think you need more analysis with other refs for a good comparison.

[Bernman]

God bless you for your research, son.

0-7 when we had 52 wins is pretty damning. If my calculation is correct, the chances of that happening at random is .14 percent. It couldn't have been he just reffed our toughest games. We were 8-0 against the top 4 in the west. Nobody outclassed us that regular season. Stern was putting on the heat when we were the most dangerous.

Do Kenny Mauer next.

[SCassell19]

You have the potential to really do some interesting things with what you have started. The problem with your current data is that it doesn't tell us how the Bucks did with other refs.

What I think I would do is make a spreadsheet with every ref who worked a Bucks game the last 15-years. Then put in what our "record" is with said ref being part of the crew each night. Then figure out 1 to 60 (or however many refs worked Bucks games over that period) who we did best with and who we did worse with W-L wise.

From that data then start looking at the FT discrepancy and where guys like Bavetta, Javie and Mauer rank.

Your data on it's surface indicates Bavetta has a bias against Milwaukee. Whether that is Stern induced or just Bavetta we don't know. But I think you need more analysis with other refs for a good comparison.

Ill post the Bucks record with every other ref in that same time period later tonight. Other stats (FT Diff, records in certain situations) will take longer. But I have the data and will do the research as long as theres interest. I can tell you Bavetta is one of the top refs in terms of losing percentage. Nolan Fine (who retired after 03-04 was 18-42 (same percentage as Bavetta). Others were worse but didnt ref nearly as much in that span. Bill Oakes was 7-28 but retired after 97-98 and didnt have to "go through" the Bucks winning seasons that might have made is record not as bad. Other refs have better records like Bernhardt at 27-34, but he had a lot higher percentage of "fishy" games. Sometimes in the Bucks favor sometimes not....he just liked to fix...i mean appear to fix...games.

[THE DINJ]

My dad's going to go nuts when he sees these numbers. He's been suspicious of Bavetta in particular for many, many years.

[Bernman]

You should forward this post general board into both the "NBA investingating Bavetta" and "Bucks-Sixers 2001 series also rigged" threads. Some of those rationalizing Sixers' fans need to be put in their place.

Here are the links:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=798108

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=798431

[andonewheel]

Wow. I was a bit of a skeptic but this is really overwhelming evidence. It's hard to argue with numbers. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

[bigkurty]

Where are you getting these states anyway? This is amazing stuff. Seriously I don't know how you are analyzing these numbers but if you can make it easy to work with in a database of some sort so where conditions could be applied, that would be a hell of a tool to demonstrate how crooked the NBA is. I don't know how much time you want to spend but say you make something really easy to work with, like say I want to look at the bottom 10 sized markets in the NBA and see how they compare with FT's attempted versus the top 10 markets, etc. Something like that has the potential to make you semi famous given the current state of the NBA. I could just picture Fam posting about your easily and verifiable (this is key) stats on brewhoop, then having true hoop catch onto it and ultimately E60 doing a piece on it or something. Hell you could almost write a book on your research if you spent the time on it and if you were somehow able to statistically prove fixing was taking place. This is actually possible if you are good at statistics. Or you could work with someone else who has written about sports statistics and make a pretty penny if you wanted. The possibilities of where this could lead are endless.

[SCassell19]

:o Where are you getting these states anyway? This is amazing stuff. Seriously I don't know how you are analyzing these numbers but if you can make it easy to work with in a database of some sort so where conditions could be applied, that would be a hell of a tool to demonstrate how crooked the NBA is. I don't know how much time you want to spend but say you make something really easy to work with, like say I want to look at the bottom 10 sized markets in the NBA and see how they compare with FT's attempted versus the top 10 markets, etc. Something like that has the potential to make you semi famous given the current state of the NBA. I could just picture Fam posting about your easily and verifiable (this is key) stats on brewhoop, then having true hoop catch onto it and ultimately E60 doing a piece on it or something. Hell you could almost write a book on your research if you spent the time on it and if you were somehow able to statistically prove fixing was taking place. This is actually possible if you are good at statistics. Or you could work with someone else who has written about sports statistics and make a pretty penny if you wanted. The possibilities of where this could lead are endless.

I spent some hours last summer going through the boxscores on databasebasketball.com and recorded the info as far as score, refs, ft count and what not. I have all the data but its not organized like i would like it so it will take some time to do stats like that and make a spreadsheet on each ref. im adding in last years record for each ref right now and ill have every refs w-l record posted later. lol i dont know about being famous. these numbers wont prove a fix. it will be hard for anyone to prove that because hes all he said she said. hard to get concrete evidence unless someone (stern) left a paper trail. Ill work on making a spreadsheet for each ref and get data on all so we can compare.

[rilamann]

Great work,the numbers dont lie.

[Bernman]

Jim Rome has been very supportive of the Bucks in their cry that they were jobbed in the 00-01 season (see Rilamann's youtube video). He's also always been outspoken about thinking there is an NBA reffing conspiracy. His show may be a good forum to get the message out. Send him these #'s via email and he may bring it up on air.

Epic Take. Rack 'em!

[paulpressey25]

If you can quantify this all in a spreadsheet that can be audited and also has all the other refs, I like Kurty's idea about Fam's blog.

Frank can maybe help you put the data in a defensible format and I'm sure he could get a link then to TrueHoop or somewhere else with this data.

I'm sure Mark Cuban has all this on his laptop. Bavetta versus every team. Bavetta with big markets, etc.

[SCassell19]

OK...

In this post ill list the active refs records from 91-92, but only those which have reffed a minimum of 50 games in that span. Playoffs count. Sorted from worst PCT to best PCT.

ACTIVE REFS (MINIMUM 50 GAMES)

DICK BAVETTA 24-56 .300
SCOTT WALL 19-36 .345
LUIS GRILLO 25-45 .357
TOMMY NUNEZ 24-42 .364
TOM WASHINGTON 22-37 .373
DAVID JONES 28-47 .373
BILL SPOONER 25-40 .385
DERRICK STAFFORD 32-51 .386
MICHAEL SMITH 25-38 .397
JACK NIES 31-47 .397
JOE FORTE 31-47 .397
TONY BROTHERS 25-37 .403
GREG WILLARD 33-46 .418
JOE DEROSA 31-43 .419
BENNETT SALVATORE 31-43 .419
KEN MAUER 34-46 .425
JOE CRAWFORD 34-45 .430
DAN CRAWFORD 41-53 .436
RON GARRETSON 36-46 .439
STEVE JAVIE 36-44 .450
ED F RUSH 40-48 .455
BENNIE ADAMS 25-30 .455
JIM CLARK 36-43 .456
MONTY MCCUTCHEN 30-35 .462
DEREK RICHARDSON 24-28 .462
SEAN CORBIN 28-32 .467
BOB DELANEY 38-42 .475
MIKE CALLAHAN 32-35 .478
MARK WUNDERLICH 39-38 .506
JAMES CAPERS 31-29 .517
JESS KERSEY 39-33 .542
RON OLESIAK 39-32 .549
SCOTT FOSTER 34-24 .586

[midranger]

Great, yet horrifying thread.

Absolutely ridiculous that the split can be that large between refs with good sample sizes.

BTW, SCassell19 wins ballboy of the year for this work.

[midranger]

BTW, what was the Bucks overall winning % during this time?

My guess would be ~.445 though I could be very off.

[SCassell19]

This time im listing refs records only in years when the Bucks finished with a record of .500 or better. So 98-99 through 03-04. Active refs only. Minimum 25 games reffed in those 6 seasons. Sorted Worst Pct to Best Pct.

REF RECORDS ONLY COUNTING GAMES IN SEASONS WHICH BUCKS FINISHED .500 OR BETTER.

Dick Bavetta 9-27 .250
Scott Wall 11-18 .379
Jack Nies 16-23 .410
Phil Robinson 12-14 .462
Tony Brothers 12-14 .462
Ken Mauer 12-14 .462
Joe Forte 13-14 .481
Jim Clark 13-14 .481
Ed F Rush 16-16 .500
Bennie Adams 13-13 .500
Mark Wunderlich 14-14 .500
Derek Richardson 14-13 .519
Joe Crawford 17-15 .531
Greg Willard 16-13 .552
Bob Delaney 15-12 .556
James Capers 15-12 .556
Dan Crawford 19-15 .559
Bennett Salvatore 18-14 .563
Sean Corbin 16-12 .571
Ron Garretson 15-10 .600
Marc Davis 15-10 .600
Steve Javie 18-11 .621
Joe Derosa 17-10 .630
David Jones 18-8 .692
Ron Olesiak 20-8 .714

[msiris]

Don't need stats, since a lot of us have felt that way for a while now. Even in the late 70s and early 80s
playoff games the Bucks could never get a call. It was always Boston or Philly who got the calls. I would be sitting there wondering what kind of hell call was that. Always so close. But wow. The numbers are huge. But did not the Bucks pretty much suck during that time frame anyways?

[msiris]

Would be nice to know where each Ref was born and where they lived at that time. What is that too much too ask?

[SCassell19]

This time its each refs 2000-01 record (By far the best Bucks season in the study). Sorted by losses (most to fewest). Ill post more tomorrow including other refs that didnt qualify with the 50 game minimum (in previous post) and retired refs.

2000-01 REF RECORDS:

Dick Bavetta 0-7
Ted Bernhardt 3-5
Luis Grillo 3-4
Bernie Fryer 4-4
Jim Clark 2-4
Terry Durham 4-4
Marc Davis 2-4
Bill Kennedy 1-3
Monty Mccutchen 3-3
Joe Forte 1-3
Bennie Adams 2-3
Joe Crawford 5-3
Dan Crawford 2-3
Bennett Salvatore 4-3
Steve Javie 4-3
Jim Kinsey 3-3
Ronnie Nunn 5-3
Nolan Fine 1-2
Kevin Fehr 1-2
Phil Robinson 2-2
Ed F Rush 5-2
Mark Wunderlich 3-2
Michael Smith 2-2
Greg Willard 5-2
Bob Delaney 6-2
Dee Kantner 2-2
Derrick Stafford 3-2
Mike Callahan 4-2
Ron Garretson 4-2
Joe Derosa 7-2
Don Vaden 7-2
Ron Olesiak 4-2
Hugh Evans 5-1
George Toliver 2-1
Scott Wall 2-1
Violet Palmer 2-1
Jack Nies 5-1
Tony Brothers 4-1
Tommy Nunez 0-1
Courtney Kirkland 4-1
Derek Richardson 2-1
Scott Foster 3-1
Tom Washington 2-1
Leon Wood 3-1
Leroy Richardson 3-1
James Capers 4-1
Rodney Mott 4-1
Blaine Reichelt 1-1
Sean Corbin 5-1
Hue Hollins 5-1
Jess Kersey 3-1
Tim Donaghy 3-1
David Jones 2-1
Hank Armstrong 2-1
Gary Benson 4-0
Bill Spooner 2-0
Jason Phillips 4-0
Mike Mathis 3-0
Rashan Michel 2-0