Bogut:5-yr/$60mm Guaranteed + $12.5mm possible bonuses (OLD)

[Simulack]

The Bucks made the playoffs with a Ford/Redd/Simmons/rookie Bogut/Magloire/Bell/Smith/Williams top 8 and Porter as coach. This teams top 3, Redd/Jefferson/4th year Bogut is clearly better than that teams top 3 and has a superior coach. It will all come down to Skiles ability to instill defense.

I've never understood that kind of logic. Are we going to somehow be playing 2005-2006 teams next year?

Its totally irrelevant to compare our roster to some roster that made the playoffs years ago. We shouldn't be measuring our team vs. some Bucks team of the past but measuring our roster relative to what other teams in the East will be putting on the court next year. IMO its looks like there isn't going to be any massive decline in any of last years playoff teams... and that if a non-playoff team is going to take one of those teams spots next year, it isn't going to be the Bucks (Miami for instance has more reason for optimism).

[midranger]

At this point, a fair deal for Bogut is 11 million. However, the Bucks should feel no obligation to signhim this year unless he agrees to some discount. I'd be looking at a 10 million per deal as good value for both sides. 12 miilion per is already overpaying by 2 million. Add in the incentives and it's asinine.

[El Duderino]

[Scott even said himself,why was I buried on the bench of a 22 win Sixer team but a starter and major player on a championship caliber team in Milwaukee in 2001.

Scott Williams was only paid $5 million a year. That's the point. You need those "better than their stats show" glue guys but only at reasonable contract prices and for a reasonable acquisition price via trade or draft.

With Bogut we expended the #1 overall and we may be paying him a contract that in the later years hits the $17mm a year range. In contrast, Scott Williams was a throw-in on the TT deal. And Scott Williams worked because we had used our top lotto picks on talented guys like Glenn and Ray.

Bogut has got to be an 18/12/3/2 player to justify those numbers. I actually think he might be able to do it. But I'd have waited a year if the actual contract is 5/$72mm.

Yep

But i think we could have given Bogut 80 million and rilamann would have supported it and called it a great deal because Andrew is a "winner".

As others have said, until the exact structure of the deal come out, it's hard to comment accurately. A 5YR/60 million deal seems reasonable, but if there are 12 million in incentives, what those incentives are aren't clarified at this point.

[rilamann]

[Scott even said himself,why was I buried on the bench of a 22 win Sixer team but a starter and major player on a championship caliber team in Milwaukee in 2001.

Scott Williams was only paid $5 million a year. That's the point. You need those "better than their stats show" glue guys but only at reasonable contract prices and for a reasonable acquisition price via trade or draft.

With Bogut we expended the #1 overall and we may be paying him a contract that in the later years hits the $17mm a year range. In contrast, Scott Williams was a throw-in on the TT deal. And Scott Williams worked because we had used our top lotto picks on talented guys like Glenn and Ray.

Bogut has got to be an 18/12/3/2 player to justify those numbers. I actually think he might be able to do it. But I'd have waited a year if the actual contract is 5/$72mm.

I agree Bogut must put up better numbers than Scott Williams did but the point im making is that Bogut & Scott Williams are both big men and are both in that same ''better on a good team than bad team'' mold.

Like I said though I agree Bogut has to be more than just a glue guy and a better player than Scott was without a doubt and he will be.Bogut will be like a rich man's Scott Williams or an all star caliber Scott Williams once Bogut find his jumper.

Another guy in this mold is David Lee even Barkley said it during the rookie game about Lee ,Barkley said and I qutoe ''He (David Lee) would be a monster on a good team''.

I actually have the Scott Williams talk about himself and the whole ''some guys are better on a good team than bad team'' topic,Scott & Jim & Jon actually talked about this thoery for a couple mminutes during the Wolves game,maybe some of you remember it it was the final game of the year.The topic caught my attention because its something I and a few others have preached for sometime with Bogut.

I recorded that game so i'll youtube it maybe tonight or in the next day or two.Only thing is I cant remember at which point in the game they talked about all of this which means i'll have to watch that classic (sarcastic) agian to find the point in the game.

[LUKE23]

The 8th seed was 8 fricking games under .500 last year in the East. The East is still not very good. There is absolutely no reason with improved D the Bucks can't win between 43-45 games next year given offensive talent level (looking at current roster). People keep saying that the East is so improved and the Bucks have no chance at the playoffs. Well, the standings say otherwise, it's still very mediocre.

Skiles is going to make a difference on this teams defense/intensity, how much is the question right now. He has on every team he's coached.. I understand people being pessimistic by nature, but to think this team has no shot at the playoffs given everything we have in front of us is just ludicrous.

[Simulack]

The 8th seed was 8 fricking games under .500 last year in the East. The East is still not very good. There is absolutely no reason with improved D the Bucks can't win between 43-45 games next year given offensive talent level (looking at current roster). People keep saying that the East is so improved and the Bucks have no chance at the playoffs. Well, the standings say otherwise, it's still very mediocre.

Again, which teams that made the playoffs last year aren't going to next year? And why should I think the Bucks have more of a chance to steal one of those spots than a team like Miami who has a superstar in Wade, a perennial all-star in Marion, the much adored (on the Bucks board anyway) Udonis Haslem and just added Beasley who had one of the most dominant freshmen seasons in NCAA history?

Regarding the 8th seed Hawks, how sad is it that they were 8 games under .500 and still looked like a much better basketball team than us? Considering how much young talent they have on their roster, I'd think they have more reason to be hopeful for improvement than we do.

Maybe its too early to talk about this since major roster changes could be in store. We could make changes, the Hawks could lose Smith, etc. But as currently constructed, I'll be shocked if we make the playoffs. I'm still in the camp that believes this team is a total mess.

[LUKE23]

http://blogs.jsonline.com/bucks/archive ... nsion.aspx

5-year deal worth UP TO $72.5M with bonuses, which is what I thought. This is why people need to settle down until the details come out, it's not $72.5M guaranteed. I'm guess the incentives are all-star/win/playoff related as well, all things that will make Bogut worth the full amount of the deal should he reach it.

Simulack, we will agree to disagree. If you don't think the team has any chance to make the playoffs, why even follow them? Getting RJ was big, we haven't had a SF that good for a long time. Bogut isn't done improving. We finally have a legit coach. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we are better than teams like Atlanta, Toronto next year.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

And aside from the discussion of fair, is the discussion of whether the risk/reward of waiting one more year to evaluate him make this contract sensible. I think there was almost no risk of him blowing up to a contract worth more than this.

The bigger risk from Bogut would be Bogut deciding to play the 09-10 season on his respectably sized QO and then become an unrestricted free agent for the 2010 offseason.

That is an offseason that a number of teams are scrambling to set up cap space for, in hopes of getting LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and a number of other potential premium free agents. Teams that strike out on those other targets could easily turn their attention to UFA Bogut, at which point he leaves without us having a choice.

We take that option off the table by signing him to an extension.
Considering we also take off the table the risk that you mention, it's not a bad strategy, when considering those two factors together (I agree with you that by itself, the risk you mention does not warrant doing this extension now at this amount).

Most players wouldn't go the QO route, but Bogut is a unique case in especially unique circumstances. For one thing, most players do not have a QO that pays as well as Bogut's does (by virtue of being the #1 pick in a draft at 120% of scale)

[Simulack]

Simulack, we will agree to disagree. If you don't think the team has any chance to make the playoffs, why even follow them?

I guess I just can't kick the habit. I've been a Bucks fan since I was a kid; obviously I'm gonna continue to follow and support the team no matter how much we suck. It has to turn around someday, right?

The years we suck I try to just concentrate on watching the younger players (Bogut and Yi last year) and investing most of my emotion in the team into hoping guys like that can improve or really show something instead of investing it into playoff hopes.

I actually remember saying something like "Each year we get so optimistic about changes in the off-season only to have our hopes extinguished as we are treated to yet another year of below .500 Bucks basketball" in the opening game thread and I remember you saying that was "too true" or something like that. For now on, I'm taking a guilty until proven otherwise stance regarding the Bucks.

[El Duderino]

The 8th seed was 8 fricking games under .500 last year in the East. The East is still not very good. There is absolutely no reason with improved D the Bucks can't win between 43-45 games next year given offensive talent level (looking at current roster). People keep saying that the East is so improved and the Bucks have no chance at the playoffs. Well, the standings say otherwise, it's still very mediocre.

Skiles is going to make a difference on this teams defense/intensity, how much is the question right now. He has on every team he's coached.. I understand people being pessimistic by nature, but to think this team has no shot at the playoffs given everything we have in front of us is just ludicrous.

I agree that with even just moderate improvement on defense and Jefferson replacing the trainwreck we had at SF last year, the team will be quite a bit better. If Alexander can provide quality minutes off the bench and another solid bench player is acquired, a playoff berth should be realistic.

[Sigra]

So how much is going against our salary cap? If Bogut earns 70 millions is that going against our salary cap?

[LUKE23]

I agree that with even just moderate improvement on defense and Jefferson replacing the trainwreck we had at SF last year, the team will be quite a bit better. If Alexander can provide quality minutes off the bench and another solid bench player is acquired, a playoff berth should be realistic

I agree. SF has been an abomination for this team since the ECF year, and that is a position that is pretty stacked league-wide. Getting a legit 20 ppg guy there that can get to the line and play defense (it suffered last year, but RJ can play it) is really big.

It's going to come down to defense, obviously. While he has had better defensive rosters than this one (obviously), Skiles has never finished out of the top 10 for defensive efficiency on the teams he's coached. I think getting the Bucks to the 15-18 range in defensive efficiency is a realistic goal. If that happens, I think we're in the playoffs given offensive talent.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

adamcz....you can put this on your site, im willing to risk my credibility on this one.

Haha I don't wait for permission, but I appreciate having it anyway. Perhaps you can get a gold star for being the first to predict something accurately.

If you're giving out gold stars for being the first to leak contract details, looks like I would get the gold stars for being the first with last offseason's contracts of Mo Williams and Charlie Bell.
Just sayin'

But MartyConlonOnTheRun's original information was correct, it should be pointed out.
He said $60 mil plus bonuses.
That he didn't post that the bonuses equaled $12.5 mil doesn't make his OP incorrect.


PP25, I suggest editing the title again.

5 years, $60 mil plus $12.5 mil incentives

or something to that effect.

[Debit One]

I think getting the Bucks to the 15-18 range in defensive efficiency is a realistic goal. If that happens, I think we're in the playoffs given offensive talent.

I hate, hate, hate the fact that we seem to be resigning ourselves to the same putrid defensive backcourt that we had last season.

[Fort Minor]

PP25, I suggest editing the title again.

5 years, $60 mil plus $12.5 mil incentives

or something to that effect.

Ah. That's much easier to look at.

Props to fam and MCotR.

[LUKE23]

I think getting the Bucks to the 15-18 range in defensive efficiency is a realistic goal. If that happens, I think we're in the playoffs given offensive talent.

I hate, hate, hate the fact that we seem to be resigning ourselves to the same putrid defensive backcourt that we had last season.

I wouldn't call that a foregone conclusion yet, but if it is still Mo/Redd at this time next week, I'd start to worry.

[DH34Phan]

Richard Jefferson alone won't make this team a playoff team.

This is basically the same team as last year, and we expect to make the playoffs?

I think getting to 35 wins should be a goal this season (which maybe would get us in the playoffs). Winning more than 35 games seems unlikely to me seeing how the roster is presently.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

If you're giving out gold stars for being the first to leak contract details, looks like I would get the gold stars for being the first with last offseason's contracts of Mo Williams and Charlie Bell.
Just sayin'

Sorry GAD, but my tracking of this stuff only began on 6/30/08. It would seem that this Bogut contract will provide us with two simultaneous winners, but I'm not sending out any stars until you confirm the contract details. Then again, me trusting you to confirm those details I guess acknowledges your prior leaks. So you can have a star too if you want. But I'm sending it COD.

But MartyConlonOnTheRun's original information was correct, it should be pointed out.
He said $60 mil plus bonuses.
That he didn't post that the bonuses equaled $12.5 mil doesn't make his OP incorrect.

Does that mean you already confirmed the portion which is guaranteed vs performance based? And will you likely find out the terms of the bonus?

[GrandAdmiralDan]

So how much is going against our salary cap? If Bogut earns 70 millions is that going against our salary cap?

Whatever Bogut actually earns will obviously be what we pay him, but it will also be what counts when determining the team salary figure at the end of each season as it pertains to luxury tax exposure.

During an offseason, if you are trying to calculate possible space under the salary cap, the incentives only get forecast as part of your team salary if they are classified by the NBA as being likely to be achieved.

The league office has some flexibility when determining if an incentive is likely to be achieved, but generally they just base it on the prior year.

If the Bucks win 45 games this season, and Bogut has an incentive in his contract for if the Bucks win 46 games, that will not be classified as likely to be achieved for the 09-10 season.

But that would really only matter if we were pursuing space under the salary cap next offseason, which is something we are very unlikely to do (and something that would require massive overhaul of our current payroll).

[LUKE23]

Richard Jefferson alone won't make this team a playoff team.

This is basically the same team as last year, and we expect to make the playoffs?

I think getting to 35 wins should be a goal this season (which maybe would get us in the playoffs). Winning more than 35 games seems unlikely to me seeing how the roster is presently.

It's not even close to the same team as last year.

They have lost Yi/Simmons and gained RJ/Alexander as far as core-type players.

They went from LK to Skiles.

Further improvement from Bogut is expected.

I can pretty much guarantee the teams goal is more than 35 wins, and realistically.