Ty's Blog:Is Sessions a better 2-guard than Redd?

[Epicurus]

Also the difference between the top and the bottom is around 9%. I suspect a particularl bad or good week or so could thus change a rank rather handily.

[power4wardjinx]

Let's add it up.

14 games w/out Redd: Opponents shot 29.8 % (78-262) on 3-pointers.


25 games w/ Redd: Opponents have shot 39.1% (168-429)

That's quite a difference.

Overall, Bucks opponents are at 35.6% (246-691)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

EDIT: Oops, actually erred in Redd's favor 1st time and left out 4 made opponent 3's.

[ReasonablySober]

Let's add it up.

14 games w/out Redd: Opponents shot 29.8 % (78-262) on 3-pointers.


25 games w/ Redd: Opponents have shot 38.2% (164-429)

That's quite a difference.

Overall, Bucks opponents are at 35.6% (246-691)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

Great work!

[paulpressey25]

14 games w/out Redd: Opponents shot 29.8 % (78-262) on 3-pointers.
25 games w/ Redd: Opponents have shot 38.2% (164-429)
That's quite a difference.
Overall, Bucks opponents are at 35.6% (246-691)

Gold Jerry. Pure Gold.

And it backs up my belief from watching the games where I constantly see Redd doing his lazy D work where he sort of sits back just outside the side lane markers. Almost like he thinks he's playing zone when the rest of the team is playing man to man.

When the ball comes into the lane, he tries to pack in and help, but usually avoids contact. When the ball gets kicked out to the three man, Redd is usually caught flat footed about 12 feet away from that guy.

[Joana]

Our defense has been declining because Bogut has been out, but it actually improved since Redd came back from injury.

As Skiles said, Bogut isn't defending the perimeter. Seems to me that've had 3 or 4 games since Redd came back that the defense has been good but more lousy ones than good ones. When Bogut went out in November (Atl, Det, Cle), the defense remained solid w/ the exception of containing Iverson off the bench.

Can you prove that the perimeter D improved when Redd came back?

What I said was that the defence improved. It's true.

[power4wardjinx]

On double check, it's even worse than 1st tabulated. The Opponent 3-point% in games Redd played is 39.1%, not .382. (I lost 4 made 3's somewhere). I corrected it in the OP.

[Joana]

Also the difference between the top and the bottom is around 9%. I suspect a particularl bad or good week or so could thus change a rank rather handily.

That's way too complex for anyone who thinks perimeter defense is measured by 3pt% allowed, that Croshere would be our best backup center and that NBA coaches don't understand that basketball players don't rebound with the top of their head.

[paulpressey25]

On double check, it's even worse than 1st tabulated. The Opponent 3-point% in games Redd played is 39.1%, not .382. (I lost 4 made 3's somewhere). I corrected it in the OP.

I broke it down on a game by game basis:

Without Redd:

5.57 made per 18.7 attempts

With Redd

6.72 made per 17.16 attempts per game.

So if you boil it down, teams are getting four points more per game with Redd in there and in the meantime getting 1.6 extra possessions per game on top of it, because they are saving those possessions by being more efficient with the threes they are shooting.

[blueedwards]

Redd is coasting through games since he became max doogan. lol Rather trade Redd for Webster and LaFrentz. LaFrentz is pretty much done as a expiring contract. But that money could help resign Sessions and CV. Ya we will be a bad scoring team. But we are now with Redd. Damon Jones will just get some minutes and Session would have to log some major minutes at sg. Would be nice to trade RJ and Gadz then for either Matrix or Starbury. We have plenty of cap with both deals. We wont land a top free agent. But could get lucky on free players traded to us like Camby went to Clippers for nothing. We could be in that boat with that cap. But Knicks wont part with Marbury. Heat probably want Matrix expiring deal so they can go after Boozer.

[AussieBuck]

As much as I like a Redd bashing and would play Sessions over him, RJ is just as dumb a perimeter help defender if maybe a little less lazy.

[Joana]

I went to read the entire article, and the author really likes Sessions defense, I guess:

Therefore, using Ramon Sessions full time at the point would net the Bucks something like 5.7 additional wins above replacement level. A prudent general manager would be willing to pay full market value for those wins (technically, the market value is set for ALL wins, but I wouldn't pay market value for any of the wins below replacement level).

Thus, the Bucks could match an offer sheet for Sessions up to roughly $10.2 million without overpaying for him.

Is he sponsored by Sessions agent? He thinks Sessions is a better player than Ridnour, than Redd and that wouldn't be overpaid with a $10.2 million salary. Or maybe there are guys so open-minded that the brain falls out. Who knows?

[AussieBuck]

Per 36:
Redd 20.6 points 3.5 boards 2.8 assists $16 million a year
Jefferson 17.7/5/2.1 $14 million a year
Sessions 15.8/4.1/6.6
I guess the joke is on the Bucks.

[Joana]

Per 36:
Redd 20.6 points 3.5 boards 2.8 assists $16 million a year
Jefferson 17.7/5/2.1 $14 million a year
Sessions 15.8/4.1/6.6
Croshere 16.8/11.2/2.8
I guess the joke is on the Bucks; if they were open-minded they'd have offered AC a $10 million contract instead of waving him

Fixed.

[europa]

I went to read the entire article, and the author really likes Sessions defense, I guess:

Therefore, using Ramon Sessions full time at the point would net the Bucks something like 5.7 additional wins above replacement level. A prudent general manager would be willing to pay full market value for those wins (technically, the market value is set for ALL wins, but I wouldn't pay market value for any of the wins below replacement level).

Thus, the Bucks could match an offer sheet for Sessions up to roughly $10.2 million without overpaying for him.

Is he sponsored by Sessions agent? He thinks Sessions is a better player than Ridnour, than Redd and that wouldn't be overpaid with a $10.2 million salary. Or maybe there are guys so open-minded that the brain falls out. Who knows?

I can't believe this guy's blog gets so much play in this forum. I like Sessions a lot but saying he wouldn't be overpaid at $10.2M is absurd. The only thing more absurd is saying he's a better SG than Redd.

As far as the "gold" statement with regard to the team's defense with Redd compared to without him, I'd counter with the more pertinent statistic -

5-9 (Bucks' record without Redd)
13-12 (Bucks' record with Redd)

I'll take the one with the higher winning percentage. That's my kinda gold, Jerry.

[trwi7]

5-9 (Bucks' record without Redd)
13-12 (Bucks' record with Redd)

I'll take the one with the higher winning percentage. That's my kinda gold, Jerry.

Now let's look at that in context. How many times have we played Boston with and without Redd? How about Cleveland? Denver? Orlando? Atlanta? Were we also without Bogut a few of those games?

[Joana]

5-9 (Bucks' record without Redd)
13-12 (Bucks' record with Redd)

I'll take the one with the higher winning percentage. That's my kinda gold, Jerry.

Now let's look at that in context. How many times have we played Boston with and without Redd? How about Cleveland? Denver? Orlando? Atlanta? Were we also without Bogut a few of those games?

Don't be so narrow-minded. Since when is context needed? I mean, like correcting the 3pt allowed to the opponents general 3pt efficiency in a sample? People who understand more about basketball than Kevin McHale don't need that stuff, they just compare raw numbers. Open your mind.

[europa]

5-9 (Bucks' record without Redd)
13-12 (Bucks' record with Redd)

I'll take the one with the higher winning percentage. That's my kinda gold, Jerry.

Now let's look at that in context. How many times have we played Boston with and without Redd? How about Cleveland? Denver? Orlando? Atlanta? Were we also without Bogut a few of those games?

Were the defensive statistics posted taking all of these things into account? I'm genuinely asking because I don't know.

The bottom line is even if Redd's presence on the court makes the Bucks weaker defensively, his presence clearly makes them a more successful team. And at the end of the day, I'll take the victories. My preference would be both and I think that can be done given how the Bucks have had good defensive games this season with Redd in the lineup.

[power4wardjinx]

and at Utah ... and at Detroit w/out Bogut On the road for all of those losses except one home game vs. Boston that went into OT and a loss to Shaq and Phoenix.

[jeremyd236]

If you're going to compare Redd and Sessions at the 2, then it's stupid to use stats instead of observations.

If Sessions is playing the 2 and those are the stats you are using (by using something like per 36 minutes or per 48 minutes compared with Redd), chances are that Sessions is playing against the other team's 2nd unit or in garbage time. Redd plays massive minutes at the 2, and when he's not in it's Charlie Bell.

When Sessions is playing the 2 he's playing against far lesser competition and when you aren't playing 38 minutes per game, I'd think the quality of minutes you do play would inflate your "per 48 minute" stats entirely.

[Mags FTW]

If Sessions is playing the 2 and those are the stats you are using (by using something like per 36 minutes or per 48 minutes compared with Redd), chances are that Sessions is playing against the other team's 2nd unit or in garbage time.

I'm not too sure about that, When Redd was out there was that stretch where Skiles liked to use that Ridnour/Sessions backcourt, even in crunch time.