Is Kohl's Plan To Pay $70M+ Next Season?

[europa]

I've posted this several times but it's fallen on deaf ears so instead of it being lost in a thread I thought I'd try this option since I think this is something worth discussing and it's being overlooked. Here's what I posted in the Villanueva/Sessions thread:

I wonder if Kohl is prepared to push into the $70M range in team salary next season. If Hammond was prepared to keep Redd and RJ past the deadline this year (and at this point that appears to have been the plan), then the team would already be around $70M. Toss in the first-round pick, possibly Ilyasova and then either Villanueva or Sessions and now you've exceeded $70M in team salary. Is it possible Hammond has been operating with the knowledge that Kohl was set to go that high next year? Could that be why (or one of the reasons why) he's refrained from trading Redd and/or RJ? Perhaps Kohl has told him if the team makes the playoffs he'll pay in that range and then whatever moves Hammond makes next summer will be done to bolster the roster even if it doesn't mean reducing salary.

I think that's possible when you look at the fact neither Redd nor RJ have been traded and when you look at the other moves Hammond has been trying to make (i.e. the Landry and Conley trades). If the Bucks keep Redd and RJ and if Hammond had acquired Landry and Conley, the team's salary (someone correct me if I'm wrong) would be at $71M for next season. Throw in the first-round pick and maybe Ilyasova and it goes up even higher. So I'm wondering if Kohl has already given a green light for a $70M salary and that's one of the reasons that Hammond hasn't rushed out to trade Redd and RJ. Even if Villanueva and Sessions had been removed as Hammond planned, the Bucks would be looking at a team salary in excess of $70M next season. That leads me to believe the moves he's making are being done with the understanding Kohl is prepared to pay that much.

And if this is the case, I'm not people here need to be up in arms about getting the salary under that level. If Kohl wants to pay $70M-plus it's his money. Let him do it and let Hammond make whatever moves he can to improve the team. Seems sensible to me.

Also, does anyone have an updated projection on the luxury tax for next season? The last report I saw was in December and the projection was $74M.

[MickeyDavis]

I don't think Kohl or anyone from the team has publicly talked about the luxury tax but there have been unconfirmed reports that Kohl will not go over it.

Personally I don't think he will go over it. He might be tempted with a contending team. But we're not that.

I think we will get a good indication by what is, and is not, done by the trade deadline.

[LUKE23]

I wouldn't think so, but you never know. To me, it makes zero sense to go into next season with a payroll of $65M+ when Redd is going to be either out or gimpy all season long.

In reality, the next three weeks Hammond should be amassing possible trade offers for RJ that help us clear salary. There is no way they can keep both Sessions/CV without moving him, and it is possible they could lose both.

I guess my main point is that Hammond should not NOT make moves just because it might cost us 2-3 wins this year, he has to have the future in mind.

Worst possible scenario is keeping RJ, and then losing Sessions/CV because we don't have the money for them.

But to answer your question directly, no, I do not think Kohl will have a payroll over $70M next year.

[europa]

If Kohl wasn't planning to have a payroll in excess of $70M, how come Hammond wasn't planning to trade Redd and RJ and how come the two moves he did try and make (Landry and Conley) would have pushed the team salary beyond $70M?

Now maybe Hammond was going to unveil a Redd or RJ trade even if Redd hadn't gotten hurt and Bogut hadn't missed so much time. But this team when healthy was heading for a 42-45 win pace. That's a rather significant improvement so I'm not sure Hammond would have gutted the team by removing its best scorer and removing someone like RJ if the team was playing well. That's a pretty big risk to take when you're looking at a much better season than this team has had in recent seasons.

I agree with MD, we'll know where things are at the deadline. But at this time, the current belief is RJ won't be traded and Redd wasn't going to be. We've had reports saying Villanueva and/or Sessions could be traded but the two trades we know Hammond was working on would have lifted the salary over $70M for next season.

Am I the only one who is seeing this? Clearly, if Hammond is making moves that will push the salary in excess of $70M, then Kohl has told him that's a level he's prepared to pay. Otherwise, he'd be trying to dump Villanueva and/or Sessions for expirings. But he hasn't been trying to do that to this point.

[pilprin]

Is there any way to dump Gadz contract? Even if Sessions is added? It just seems like that contract has to go, someway, anyway possible.

[LUKE23]

Landry makes less per year than CV's QO would have been, and Conley makes only slightly more than Alexander. Those two moves wouldn't have increased payroll much.

It comes down to having a big picture frame of mind though. Keeping RJ while allowing young talent to walk when we're going into next season without Redd healthy, that would be loony. I think both Sessions/CV are top backups at their positions, they are worth keeping.

But I don't think people should be expecting RJ not traded AND Sessions/CV brought back. With the those two brought back and the first rounder and maybe Ilyasova, then you're pushing $75M.

Trading RJ in a salary clearing move just makes too much sense after Redd went down.

[europa]

Landry makes less per year than CV's QO would have been, and Conley makes only slightly more than Alexander. Those two moves wouldn't have increased payroll much.

Unless my math is wrong, if Landry and Conley had been added and Redd and RJ weren't traded, the salary for next season would have been at $71M. And that's not counting a first-round pick, maybe a second and maybe Ilyasova.

If that was the plan Hammond was working on then Kohl has clearly given him a green light to exceed $70M in salary for next season.

[paul]

Europa I've asked the exact same question a couple of times but the answers have always been a resounding 'no'.

Not knowing a lot about Kohl's spending habits it's difficult to know, but given the moves so far (acquiring RJ and paying some vets etc), the lack of moves before the deadline so far (not moving Redd RJ CV or Ramon) and the team's salary situation heading into next season I think it would be foolish to totally rule it out as a possibility.

There is one other thing that Herb might have taken some notice of recently. There's a small market team who are similar to the Bucks in many ways currently leading the nba in Cleveland who this season have around $90m in salary on their books. I don't know like I said, but does anyone think it's impossible that Herb sees that and thinks 'well if that's what I've got to do to get this team to contend before my time is done, then that's what I'll do' .

Like I said I might be way off base but it sure seems like Herb has been taking a bit of a 'last swing' recently by firstly hiring Hammond and then giving him more power, appointing a high priced coach etc. Paying Luxury Tax would seem to kinda fit with those moves to me, but that's just me.

[LUKE23]

Unless my math is wrong, if Landry and Conley had been added and Redd and RJ weren't traded, the salary for next season would have been at $71M. And that's not counting a first-round pick, maybe a second and maybe Ilyasova.

If that was the plan Hammond was working on then Kohl has clearly given him a green light to exceed $70M in salary for next season.

We are at 64.6M committed now.

Minus 2.583M for Alexander, he's going out in a trade.
Plus 3.883M for Conley
Plus 3.0M for Landry

So that is like 68.7M. With our first rounder, we'd be slightly over $70M.

But the problem is that those moves didn't actually go down, so it's hard to say.

I will say without question if I had my choice of two more years of RJ at $13M or CV/Sessions combined for 3-4 years at $13M per or so, that is an easy choice for me.

[paulpressey25]

The Bucks committed salaries are $64 million.

Landry and Conley take it to $70.8mm as you noted.

I'd have no doubt that back last summer/fall Kohl was prepared to pay $70mm or right up to the luxury tax. But the world changed drastically since then and continues to change.

1. Economy worse
2. Ticket sales horrible
3. Even with the $70mm payroll the team was still a few games under .500.
4. Luxury tax level may drop slightly this season with lower NBA revenues.

I'm sure these guys had a bunch of moves ready to choose from at the trading deadline involving a Redd salary dump or a Ramon/CV dump for a cheaper asset and/or draft picks. As part of that, I'd hazard to guess that Hammond and Kohl had in their back pocket one or two pure salary dump trades for Redd that they wanted to sit on until the deadline. If the team is doing well, Kohl pays the money and keeps Redd and trades CV/Ramon. If the team is struggling along, Redd goes.

I do not see Kohl paying over the luxury tax.

[LUKE23]

You need to take Alexander's salary out, he was in the proposed Conley deal.

[europa]

Europa I've asked the exact same question a couple of times but the answers have always been a resounding 'no'.

And given the moves we know Hammond has been working (i.e. Landry and Conley), saying "no" makes no sense. Now, we don't know everything that's going on obviously but at this time we know the following based on reports:

1. Villanueva and Sessions are available and Landry and Conley were two targets Hammond wanted.
2. Redd was unlikely to be traded prior to his injury.
3. There have been no rumors of RJ being traded.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is the plan Hammond has been working on. If it is, then he clearly has been told by Kohl he can exceed $70M in salary for next season. If that wasn't the case, then there's no way Hammond would have tried to trade for Landry and Conley, shot down Redd trades and shown no reported indication of moving RJ.

That simply wouldn't make sense.

It seems to me the people bitching the most about the team's salary are people in this forum. Obviously, Hammond is aware of how messed up it got under the previous regime and he's already taken strong steps to help it in that regard. But at this point based on what we know, it strongly appears Kohl is prepared to pay in excess of $70M in team salary next season.

And if he is, why should people here get so worked up about it? It's not our money. Let Kohl spend it and let Hammond use it to improve the team however he can.

[europa]

You need to take Alexander's salary out, he was in the proposed Conley deal.

Good catch. I missed that. OK but even if we do that, the team salary is right around $70M. And again, that's not including one and possibly two draft picks and maybe Ilyasova. So again, we're pushing the salary beyond $70M even after removing Alexander's contract.

[LUKE23]

Yes, if we don't move RJ, we are going to be pushing $70M regardless (assuming we do bring in Ersan). Without Ersan and just the 1st rounder added, we'll be at like $67M or so.

But Hammond's biggest decision by far is CV/Sessions. You can't ride their salaries out and let them disappear for no compensation.

[europa]

Yes, if we don't move RJ, we are going to be pushing $70M regardless (assuming we do bring in Ersan). Without Ersan and just the 1st rounder added, we'll be at like $67M or so.

But Hammond's biggest decision by far is CV/Sessions. You can't ride their salaries out and let them disappear for no compensation.

But he hasn't been planning to. That's what I'm saying, Luke. The two trades we know he's tried to make brought back salary. So again, everything we know to this point in time points to a team salary of $70M or more being in place for next season. Does anyone here honestly think Kohl isn't aware of that? If Hammond is making moves that would result in the Bucks having a team salary of more than $70M next season than it stands to reason Kohl has told him that's a salary he's prepared to pay.

Are Paul and I the only ones seeing this?

[paulpressey25]

Europa, I think Luke's got the math. If we assume $70mm is the tax number, and you send out Alexander in that trade, you bring this thing in at $70mm on nose with the Conley/Landry deals.

With CV and Ramon, you have to budget a worst case scenario that each guy get's an RFA offer with a starting salary of at least $6-7mm a year to force the Bucks not to match. That means they would cost about $12 to $14mm. That puts the payroll at $78 million next year.

Add in a dollar for dollar tax and we are talking about Kohl then really paying $86 million in salaries next year and losing whatever sharing pool funds are available for teams who are under the cap.

Kohl's not going there. He never was. If he does, that would be great. I can't see his revenues coming anywhere close to supporting that however. This wouldn't be like 2001 where he's got a sold out BC and only needs to spend an extra $5mm.

Remember this is the owner who paid the price of a future #1 draft pick (Josh Smith) just for the right to trade our ECF spiritual leader Scott Williams and his one-year, $5mm remaining contract so that he could avoid the luxury tax back then.

[LUKE23]

Those trades didn't happen though man. Lots of trades are rumored, and lets also remember the Conley deal was SHOT DOWN BY KOHL according to reports. I don't think you can use trade rumors as evidence that Kohl will go over a certain payroll.

[paulpressey25]

But both of those trades were being considered because they would lock in $3 and $3.5mm salaries for your PF and backup PG for next year rather than taking a chance we lose Ramon/CV or get caught paying them $12 to $14mm combined next year. That whole plan was leaked by the team to Enlund for that column from three weeks ago.

You did the math right. Those deals put it at $70mm on the nose with a first round pick added.

[europa]

The trade rumors are all we have to work on as far as trying to ascertain what Hammond might be doing. Here are the numbers:

Bucks salary for next season based on current players: $64.4M

Bucks salary for next season if the Conley and Landry trades have gone through: $68.7M

Bucks salary for next season if Landry trade went through but Conley didn't: $67.4M

Bucks salary for next season if Conley trade went through but Landry didn't: $65.7M

So if Redd and RJ weren't traded, the Bucks were looking at a salary of between $66M and $69M for next season. And that's before any draft picks and possibly Ilyasova. Include around $2M (maybe slightly less) for the first-round pick alone and you're inching closer to $70M in salary or exceeding it. And again, that's not taking into account whatever salary Ilyasova would require. It stands to reason he won't come back unless he's getting decent money.

Based on the numbers above, the Bucks are looking at a salary of around $70M based on what the reports indicate Hammond has been preparing to do. Now Redd's injury may have changed everything. I don't dispute that. But let's say Hammond doesn't make any moves. I think we can begin drawing an assumption which indicates Kohl has been prepared to pay upwards of $70M next season and maybe more and that Hammond has been working with that knowledge this entire time.

[paulpressey25]

Based on the numbers above, the Bucks are looking at a salary of around $70M based on what the reports indicate Hammond has been preparing to do. .

Right, but if you don't make those trades, you are not able to retain either Ramon or CV without having the payroll go OVER $70mm.

Guaranteed Payroll next year (with no trades) when you add in the draft picks will be about $67 million. That leaves you $3 million to play with and not blow the $70mm luxury tax budget.

Both Ramon and CV will at a minimum get a 2-year full MLE offer from some team that will start at $5.2mm a year. So to keep even just ONE of them, you've blown the $70mm budget and possibly are into the luxury tax.

You've got to clear out up to $14 million in salary space to ensure you keep both those guys. This again is why my latest insanity bout the last 30-days was dealing with the Michael Redd contractual mess.

Trading him for "cash" solved ALL of these problems and allowed you to maybe add an MLE guy if indeed Kohl was feeling ok with a $70mm payroll for next year.