Is Kohl's Plan To Pay $70M+ Next Season?

[europa]

Based on the numbers above, the Bucks are looking at a salary of around $70M based on what the reports indicate Hammond has been preparing to do. .

Right, but if you don't make those trades, you are not able to retain either Ramon or CV without having the payroll go OVER $70mm.

I'm aware of that. My point here is that based on what we've been told thus far, Kohl is prepared to pay at least $70M next season and possibly more than that.

[LUKE23]

I don't see how you can say there is evidence when neither trade was done. Rumors do not qualify as evidence for me.

That's not saying Kohl couldn't go over, but just because deals were rumored doesn't mean he definitely will, IMO.

I will judge him solely on how he handles the CV/Sessions decision. If he rides both out to try and get the 8th seed without the intention of setting aside the payroll to retain them, then Hammond will have had a miserable first year in my opinion.

This isn't a playoff team next year, barring a miracle, with Redd starting the season on the shelf and probably not being 100% all season long. Hammond needs to make moves accordingly.

[europa]

The reports we have are evidence of moves Hammond has wanted to make. If you wish to discount all of the rumors, then there's no reason for you to post updates about how Mike Conley is doing.

Again, my reasoning is based on what we've been told thus far. I stipulate that I and nobody else here has full knowledge of what Hammond intends to do. I'm simply going off the reports as a means to ascertain what might be going on. And based on the reports thus far, there is strong evidence which suggests Kohl is prepared to pay $70M and maybe even more than that in team salary next season. Or at least he was prepared to do that prior to Redd being injured. Again, I also stipulate that Redd's injury very well may have changed Hammond's plans completely.

[paulpressey25]

I'm aware of that. My point here is that based on what we've been told thus far, Kohl is prepared to pay at least $70M next season and possibly more than that.

The first part is a reasonable point. He was prepared to pay up to $70mm, with I'm sure reserving the right to dump salary at the trade deadline if the team was playing crappy. But as of a month ago they were looking at scenarios to fill out the roster at $70mm and not lose Ramon and CV for nothing.

The second bolded part is the one where we have past experience that has shown he'll avoid the luxury tax at all costs. i.e. dumping Scott Williams one year left and paying the price of a future #1 to do it. The second part is wishes and fishes that might occur if CV continues to blow up and the team has a great playoff appearance that shows hope like the 2000 Indy series did.

[jerrod]

There is one other thing that Herb might have taken some notice of recently. There's a small market team who are similar to the Bucks in many ways currently leading the nba in Cleveland who this season have around $90m in salary on their books. I don't know like I said, but does anyone think it's impossible that Herb sees that and thinks 'well if that's what I've got to do to get this team to contend before my time is done, then that's what I'll do' .

imo, we're absolutely nothing like cleveland. they have their star, they're legitimately contending for a title, and they have the revenue lebron brings in. we're none of those things

[europa]

But we don't know what the luxury tax for next year is - at least I'm not aware that we do. If we do, will someone please post it? Again, the last report I saw was that it was projected to be $74M. If that's the projection, then exceeding $70M is an option for Kohl.

[paul]

There is one other thing that Herb might have taken some notice of recently. There's a small market team who are similar to the Bucks in many ways currently leading the nba in Cleveland who this season have around $90m in salary on their books. I don't know like I said, but does anyone think it's impossible that Herb sees that and thinks 'well if that's what I've got to do to get this team to contend before my time is done, then that's what I'll do' .

imo, we're absolutely nothing like cleveland. they have their star, they're legitimately contending for a title, and they have the revenue lebron brings in. we're none of those things

Sorry jerrod I should have clarified I was talking about the markets being similar.

[thetown]

Based on the numbers above, the Bucks are looking at a salary of around $70M based on what the reports indicate Hammond has been preparing to do. .

Right, but if you don't make those trades, you are not able to retain either Ramon or CV without having the payroll go OVER $70mm.

I'm aware of that. My point here is that based on what we've been told thus far, Kohl is prepared to pay at least $70M next season and possibly more than that.

Based on the substantial insurance money he will be receiving from Redd's injury, it wouldn't shock me either if Kohl was prepared to go over $70M. Also, I tried looking this up and couldn't find an answer, but when is it determined when a team is over the luxury tax?? What I'm getting at is could the Bucks go into next season over the threshold and continue to try to trade players to get under the tax.

[Fight the Tank]

Hammond definitely has his work cut out for him. I still like the idea of trading RJ at or near the deadline. If this team could still grind out the playoffs that would be a great step forward for the organization. Imagine if we even got playing time for the No. 8 pick in the draft.

[paulpressey25]

a) the luxury tax this season is $71.1mm.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3479183

Odds are that either stays the same or goes down for next year. Even if Kohl wants to spend $71.1mm, he still can't keep either Ramon or CV with that lux tax number.

b) We had a thread this week, where the insurance Kohl gets for Redd being out only starts to run at the start of next season. He'll get 80% of Redd's pro-rated salary for each game he misses.

Redd is due $17.1mm next year. Divide by 82 games you get $208,000 per game roughly. If Redd misses the first 35 games, Kohl pockets $5.8 million in insurance proceeds. Is that enough to cover his tax cost for one guy (CV or Ramon). Maybe.

[jerrod]

Sorry jerrod I should have clarified I was talking about the markets being similar.

i don't think that matters when you have have lebron though, they're selling out games (i think) and lebron is bringing in a lot of money in merchandise. if you're selling out games and you've got people all over the world buying jerseys, your team could play in albany and it wouldn't matter

[LUKE23]

If we don't bring back Ersan and no trades are made, then we could afford CV's QO next year, but that is about it. Again, that is if Kohl doesn't want to go over the lux tax. You can pencil in $67M with the first rounder (with no trades). That leaves $4.1M before you hit the lux tax to spend on CV/Sessions. I think both could very well get deals starting at more than that per year, especially CV.

[paul]

Sorry jerrod I should have clarified I was talking about the markets being similar.

i don't think that matters when you have have lebron though, they're selling out games (i think) and lebron is bringing in a lot of money in merchandise. if you're selling out games and you've got people all over the world buying jerseys, your team could play in albany and it wouldn't matter

I agree, but I'm sure it related to my point about Kohl seeing a team in a similar market spending over $20m more on their payroll.

Anyway was just a side thought to my post, not worth getting into.

[trwi7]

I have a question. If Hammond comes out and says we'll match any offer for CV and Sessions would other GM's be more inclined to go out and make them a ridiculous offer or would they be more inclined to just say "Well if they're going to match any offer, why even bother making one?"

I could see arguments both ways and I really don't know. I don't think they'd offer a fair value contract because we probably would match it. I'd be more inclined to say they wouldn't make an offer because if they way overbid Hammond could easily just let them go (talking about an insane offer like $10 million.)

[thetown]

I guess what this all boils down to for me is that I hope the Bucks have a plan and are making this decision now when they still have flexibility (I'm always haunted by Bill Simmons' statement (paraphrasing) that the Bucks have only had a series of one year plans in recent memory).

The decision about next season needs to be made now. If the Bucks are prepared to go over the tax and re-sign CV and Sessions, then there is no need to trade RJ for cap relief. However, if Kohl decides the lux tax is his limit, then all efforts should be made to trade RJ, even if we have to give up some other assets (like one of CV/Sessions) to do so. I can't imagine anything more depressing then going into next season with this same team minus Redd, CV, and Sessions AND having no flexibility to make changes.

[paulpressey25]

That leaves $4.1M before you hit the lux tax to spend on CV/Sessions. I think both could very well get deals starting at more than that per year, especially CV.

When you look at the play of both guys, can't you see both of them easily getting a two-year MLE deal with a player option after year one? That works out to salaries of $5.5mm and $6.0 million along the lines of the deal Duhon got from the Knicks.

There will be at least 8-10 teams that will offer those deals to Ramon and CV. So to keep them around you've got to lock them up longer term with deals that guarantee them more money than that in some form or at a minimum have the payroll room to match both those deals.

The Bucks got a bonus because both of these guys are Restricted Free Agents. So unless some team wants to pay them Tim Thomas type money, odds are that you can let the market determine their value. It is quite possible you get a gift and they only get a 2-3 year MLE deal that you can then match. But we may not be in a position payroll wise to take advantage of their RFA status.

[InsideOut]

I'd say no way Kohl does it. Why go over the cap to try and play .500 ball and get an 8th seed? Why go over the cap to keep guys that aren't going to be core pieces on a contender? At least that is what I'd be thinking if I had this team and attendance was down. Redd and Bogut have missed quite a bit of time this month and CV takes off. You see stuff like this all the time. Garcia and Martin are out at the start of the season and all off a sudden Salmons the next coming. Hammond has a tough job figuring out what a guy like CV is worth. I hope he doesn't pay for January CV and end up with November CV. Either way if I don't see CV being a Hammond/Skiles type of player.

[paulpressey25]

Redd and Bogut have missed quite a bit of time this month and CV takes off. You see stuff like this all the time. Garcia and Martin are out at the start of the season and all off a sudden Salmons the next coming.

This is a good point. But who is to say that Redd wasn't putting up his numbers under the same principle? We didn't have Joe Johnson or an Amare that was on this team to hold Redd's scoring numbers down. I know you concur with this.

I agree that Salmons fills the void and get's "stats" under that premise, but as you know, Salmons only makes $5mm a year. CV at $6mm a year on a three-year deal isn't a bad thing for a team to have. That's why you hedge yourself with Landry, Haslem, Varajao, etc. And that other PF if big enough is a hedge against Bogut as well.

[MilBucksBackOnTop06]

If Kohl wasn't planning to have a payroll in excess of $70M, how come Hammond wasn't planning to trade Redd and RJ and how come the two moves he did try and make (Landry and Conley) would have pushed the team salary beyond $70M?

Now maybe Hammond was going to unveil a Redd or RJ trade even if Redd hadn't gotten hurt and Bogut hadn't missed so much time. But this team when healthy was heading for a 42-45 win pace. That's a rather significant improvement so I'm not sure Hammond would have gutted the team by removing its best scorer and removing someone like RJ if the team was playing well. That's a pretty big risk to take when you're looking at a much better season than this team has had in recent seasons.

I agree with MD, we'll know where things are at the deadline. But at this time, the current belief is RJ won't be traded and Redd wasn't going to be. We've had reports saying Villanueva and/or Sessions could be traded but the two trades we know Hammond was working on would have lifted the salary over $70M for next season.

Am I the only one who is seeing this? Clearly, if Hammond is making moves that will push the salary in excess of $70M, then Kohl has told him that's a level he's prepared to pay. Otherwise, he'd be trying to dump Villanueva and/or Sessions for expirings. But he hasn't been trying to do that to this point.

I am confused...how do you what hammonds has or has not been trying to do?

In fact, his Conley deal was knocked down by Kohl...and so was the Landry deal if I am not mistaken.

To me, the bottom line is he should not have traded for Jefferson at all. And if he was going to keep Redd and not trade him for a pick and a player like he should have, before the season started, then they overestimated again how good this team would be.

They thought for some silly reason that adding Jefferson, Alexander and Ridnour would make this a playoff team when Ridnour and Sessions a second round pick with 10-15 meaningless, mop up end of the year games under his belt, is a worse defender then Mo was!

If they had kept Mo Williams and got a healthy Simmons who for all the people who knock him do not remember we NEVER SAW HEALTHY FOR A FULL SEASON...and kept Mason and Yi Jinalian for depth or even moved Villanueva instead they perhaps would have made the playoffs more then this team here, but not gone very far.

I wanted a complete overhaul. COMPLETELY. Not a band-aid tweak...

Mo, Mason, Yi and Simmons and a DECENT DRAFT PICK would do more then Jefferson and Ridnour are doing now! If it did not work then you could have made this trade at the deadline...and got better players back.

Hammond did not need to mess with this team at all, if what he wanted to do was get in the playoffs.
The only move he should have made was if there was a guy out there he could have gotten for Redd who would have pushed them past the first round...and who also expired.

I think Hammond played the wait and see game at the deadline and it backfired. Kohl did not have a plan to increase anything although he too overestimated this team and Jefferson and the effects he would have making the adjustment here.

You should have kept together a more familiar team if you wanted to make a run. What Hammond did as a rookie GM was come in and make moves just to make a move and make a splash and do cosmetic changes for good publicity to get fans who don't know better a 'name toy' in Jefferson to get some ooh's and ahhh's...around the league.

Two deals you did not have to do once you hit the home run with Scott Skiles...Once they decided to keep Redd they should have left the team alone and just made a better lottery selection then Joe Alexander and we would be just fine...and a little above mediocore with some good health.

[thetown]

I have a question. If Hammond comes out and says we'll match any offer for CV and Sessions would other GM's be more inclined to go out and make them a ridiculous offer or would they be more inclined to just say "Well if they're going to match any offer, why even bother making one?"

I could see arguments both ways and I really don't know. I don't think they'd offer a fair value contract because we probably would match it. I'd be more inclined to say they wouldn't make an offer because if they way overbid Hammond could easily just let them go (talking about an insane offer like $10 million.)

In the hands of a team that is certain to match an offer (like Portland ($$$) or Memphs (cap room)), it is a very powerful weapon because the team can wait up to seven days to match, effectively freezing the other team from making moves. As the team is guaranteed to match, no one would want to go through the pointless effort of making the RFA offer, especially this year when there are a number of very good UFA's who probably will not be signed by their teams.

However, in the Bucks case, if we are up against the tax, teams probably won't believe us, or will try to structure the contracts to make it even harder for us to match, such as more $ in the first year. If we get cap relief (e.g. trading RJ), then our threat is credible and I doubt CV/Sessions would get any offers.