Some research I did on CV31 (interesting results)

HeroicKennedy · Post #1 » by **HeroicKennedy** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 6:59 am

Something I shared on the Detroit board:

HeroicKennedy wrote:A just for fun comparison of Amar'e, Bosh, and Charlie V per 36 minutes (so take it with massive grains of salt)

Bosh: 21.5 points, 9.5 rebounds with a TS% of .569
Amar'e: 21.0 points, 7.9 rebounds with a TS% of .617
Villanueva: 21.7 points, 8.9 rebounds with a TS% of .529

I think the difference is TS% is big, but here's something even more interesting.

Inside shooting:
Bosh: Attempts - 36%, eFG%: .591
Amar'e: Attempts - 45%, eFG%: .658
Villanueva: Attempts - 34%, eFG%: .534

While there's significant differences in eFG%, I caught me off guard how CV31 and CB4 both spend about the same amount of time in the post. I wonder, if you bring in a quality big man coach to work with Villanueva, if he could really become a high quality big man. I mean, especially if we're only paying $6-7 million a year.

trwi7 · Post #2 » by **trwi7** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 7:03 am

I'm so glad we'll have the option of making him a qualifying offer!

paul · Post #3 » by **paul** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 7:12 am

Yeah thanks for the info but you aren't going to surprise anyone here. We all know he's a very very talented offensive player and a solid rebounder (and citizen it should be said), it's on the other end of the floor where his problems are.
I think Charlie will do some good things for whoever picks him up despite his obvious deficiences, but I highly doubt it will be us.

AussieBuck · Post #4 » by **AussieBuck** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 7:40 am

David West per 36: 19.2 points, 7.8 rebounds with a TS% of .540

Villanueva: 21.7 points, 8.9 rebounds with a TS% of .529

I guess if we had West we'd let him walk for nothing too.

HeroicKennedy · Post #5 » by **HeroicKennedy** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 7:49 am

paul wrote:Yeah thanks for the info but you aren't going to surprise anyone here. We all know he's a very very talented offensive player and a solid rebounder (and citizen it should be said), it's on the other end of the floor where his problems are.
I think Charlie will do some good things for whoever picks him up despite his obvious deficiences, but I highly doubt it will be us.

But here's the thing: neither Bosh or Amar'e are good defenders, either. In fact, I'd say Amar'e is a pretty poor defender. While he makes up for it by being ridiculously efficient offensively, the gap between these three players might not be as wide people make it out to be.

Nowak008 · Post #6 » by **Nowak008** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 8:27 am

trwi7 wrote:I'm so glad we'll have the option of making him a qualifying offer!

We will decline to even take that option. :noway:

coolhandluke121 · Post #7 » by **coolhandluke121** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 10:25 am

CV's a lot more like Big Dog than either of those two. Relatively inefficient, jumpshot-centric, and not getting to the line enough to have a solid TS%. Still an asset no matter how you spin it, but not a guy the Bucks would miss terribly.

Post #8 » by **paulpressey25** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 12:51 pm

There are going to be nights next January when Mbah a Moute or Potsie or RJ for that matter will be clanging off wide open 10 foot jumpers and we'll lose. Simply because we needed one extra bench player who could light it up at the forward spot for 20 points.

The hard part though with projecting CV per 36 is that on nights he sucked, Skiles would give him the hook, so he would not play many minutes. Also, that relatively low shooting percentage on inside shots tells you he can't finish at the hoop like a typical power player would.

europa · Post #9 » by **europa** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 1:53 pm

This reminds me of the glorious summer of 2005 when so many Per-esque stats were trotted out that made Dan Gadzuric look like a competent NBA center. Unfortunately, the Bucks were among those fooled by these stats and ignored what the eyes and common sense had told us for quite some time.

I'm not saying Villanueva stinks like Gadz but I'd say he's as far removed from stars such as Stoudamire and Bosh as Gadz is from being a competent NBA center.

LUKE23 · Post #10 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 1:57 pm

Zero similarities between Gadz and CV. Gadz had no talent, CV does, Gadz was a second round pick for a reason, CV was a lottery pick for a reason. I don't see the comparison.

While CV had deficiencies on the defensive end, it always amazes me how many Bucks fans failed to realize there are two ends of the court. You can mark it in stone right now that the Bucks will lose the PF battle MANY nights next year, regardless of whether they go LRMAM, Ersan, or the #10 pick there. No matter what we are not going to be very good offensively at PF this year (and no, we're not trading for a big upgrade at PF, we don't have the assets to do so).

europa · Post #11 » by **europa** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:02 pm

The similarity is not about talent as I clearly stated. It's about using certain stats to make someone look better than he really is. Many folks made that mistake with Gadz and unfortunately the Bucks were one of them. I hated the PER discussions the summer of 2005 because so many people in my opinion were ignoring the realities about Gadz's game and using those stats to make him out to be something more and better than he was. I prayed the Bucks wouldn't fall victim to that mistake. Unfortunately, they did. I believe these stats paint Villanueva in a light that he doesn't belong in. If people want to think he's close to the players Bosh and Stoudamire are, be my guest. Good luck finding anybody around the league who agrees with that sentiment.

LUKE23 · Post #12 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:04 pm

No, they don't. They paint him in the light that he's a very good offensive player, good rebounder, and very poor defender, which is exactly what he is.

We'll see what people are saying when we're outscored at the PF spot nearly every night next season (and trust me, we will be).

jerrod · Post #13 » by **jerrod** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:07 pm

europa, you can say that gadz has sucked since then, and he has. but that doesn't mean that he didn't play well before the contract, and it certainly doesn't mean that that per stats are useless.

WRau1 · Post #14 » by **WRau1** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:08 pm

That would happen no matter if CV was here or not. You think CV will get anywhere near the amount of touches next year w/ a healthy Redd and Bogut that he got this year?

LUKE23 · Post #15 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:10 pm

WRau1 wrote:That would happen no matter if CV was here or not. You think CV will get anywhere near the amount of touches next year w/ a healthy Redd and Bogut that he got this year?

I'm talking more the totality of the position next year. Barring a major trade, we're going to have some combination of LRMAM/Ersan/#10 pick/Allen/Alexander manning PF minutes. None of those can touch CV offensively. That also doesn't take into account the fact that LRMAM is much better at guarding 2/3's than he is at guarding 4's. I expect PF to be a monumental problem next year.

europa · Post #16 » by **europa** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:13 pm

jerrod wrote:europa, you can say that gadz has sucked since then, and he has. but that doesn't mean that he didn't play well before the contract, and it certainly doesn't mean that that per stats are useless.

Not useless. Like all stats, it has strengths and weaknesses. But - and this is just my opinion - when I see a stat that clearly projects a player in a light I don't believe he belongs, I lose faith in it. The PER stats in 2005 were saying things about Gadz that attempted to contradict what all of my years of watching him were telling me. So I didn't trust the stat. And I argued hard against it both here and on the J/S forums when the subject of Gadz's value came up. I trusted what I saw and what I saw told me Gadz was not a quality backup center and not someone who should receive a big contract. Unfortunately, the Bucks screwed the pooch and they've been paying for it ever since.

Same with these stats with Villanueva. I don't question his ability to put up nice numbers. But my eyes have told me far more things about Villanueva's game and they include significant issues that have hurt this team. So there is no way in hell I believe he's close to the player Bosh and Stoudamire are. If others want to believe that, that's cool. I simply choose not to.

jerrod · Post #17 » by **jerrod** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:14 pm

my problem with that is that your view of gadz post contract is not letting you believe that he did actually play well in that season before. which he did

europa · Post #18 » by **europa** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:17 pm

jerrod wrote:my problem with that is that your view of gadz post contract is not letting you believe that he did actually play well in that season before. which he did

I thought his production was inflated by playing time, not as a result of quality ability. I argued at the time he was going to regress in production and likely regress badly. I also said the stats didn't show the (in my opinion major) defensive issues he had because he was not a physical interior defender - he was an athletic shot blocker. I argued all of these things before he got his contract.

WRau1 · Post #19 » by **WRau1** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:19 pm

It was that damn 20/20 game against Boston that got him that contract!

blueedwards · Post #20 » by **blueedwards** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 2:28 pm

First time we could get a pf at a decent price and we cant even bother signing him. Other years we wasted time and money on TT,Caffey,Anthony Mason,KVH,Traylor. CV is the last piece of the big 3 trade pieces that came back our way. Figuring in the first round we got in the big dog trade was Ford then traded for CV. I suppose we could reach and say Ray Allen piece is Ridnour cause we got the glove and cowboy. Then later cowboy was dealt for Ridnour.

I still think we have to trade Redd soon as hes healthy. I still say Redd to Philly for Dalembert,Green,Evans. Then have Bogut play pf alot. Move RJ to sg then have Prince start at sf. It probably a very weak starting line up for scoring. But we have two stud muffin blocking alot of shots in Prince and Dalembert. Bogut might even get in on that I hope. RJ will have to pick it up even more this year. Session might have to become a huge chucker to and Bogut will have to get close to 20 a night also. Plus Bell and who ever off the bench will have to pick it up. Also our draft picks this year will have to be excellent right out of the gates. I would make sure we land McNeal with #41. Gonna be desperate for shooters after Redd is dealt. Plus when Dalembert takes a break. Bogut can slide over to center. Then Prince,Ersan,Evans,Allen play pf. Then RJ back to sf and Sessions slide to sg and McNeal at pg.