Sessions Update:Ramon signs T-Wolves OS (page 310 update)

[Max Green]

We'd be a 50 win team if we were able to somehow get Lee while also keeping Ramon.

[paulpressey25]

I don't think Lee has a lot of leverage at this point when it comes to getting him interested in a deal.

I agree. Sure, he could take some one-year/$8mm deal from the Knicks, as the Knicks would love him to do. But let's say the Bucks presented him with a 4/$32 and a player option after year three (again the "TJ contract")

I think in this economy, he'd grab the guaranteed $32 million. I'm not sure what other teams are out there that want to pay him even that much.

From the Knicks standpoint, they can't afford Lee on a multi-year deal at $8mm a year and still have the pipe dream of chasing LeBron and most likely another PF (Amare or Bosh). And they've got Hill.

[BDUB_30]

Last year Bogut and Lee had basically the same rebounding rate. Defensively, Lee allowed a 21+ PER at PF. I dont' know where rankings are, but that is monumentally horrendous.

You've stated this numerous times in this thread but have completely taken it out of context in order for it to better fit your own argument. What you neglected to mention is that Lee played 4% of the available minutes at PF and 66% of the available minutes at Center. 4% is a minute sample size, and without overtimes factored in, that's 157 minutes throughout the 82 game season. When you average that out, that comes to LESS THAN TWO MINUTES PER GAME AT POWER FORWARD. Therefore, when you sit there and use that as data to support your argument, you're reaching, and you're reaching really far here.

The New York defensive system forces it's big men to switch on nearly every screen often leaving guys like Lee out on the perimeter to defend ones, twos, and threes. Obviously, that's a terrible matchup for 99% of the big men in this league as they'll either bite hard on a pump fake or simply be blown past off of the dribble. This is another reason why Lee's defensive shortcomings are overly exposed by the data for this particular season.

As a rookie in 2005-2006, Lee allowed a 19.7 opponent PER to opposing power forwards. During the 2006-2007 season, David Lee allowed a 13.7 opponent PER to power forwards. In 2007-2008, David Lee posted an 18.0 opponent PER at the power forward position. In saying things like, he's a bottom 5 defender in the league, or at least as a big man, you're once again, drastically overstating your own point.

In my opinion, and it is no secret, Lee is far below average defensively at center which is a position he won't be needed much at if Bogut stays healthy and we've got guys like Elson, Johnson, and Gadzuric to provide valuable backup minutes. Despite his shortcomings at that position, I believe him to be an average defender at the power forward, ESPECIALLY when being paired with a guy like Bogut who can rotate over and block some shots if needed.

What you are seemingly failing to realize is that by bringing in his top notch rebounding to our ball club, we become better defensively by cleaning up the glass and really limiting 2nd chance opportunities for the opposing teams while adding a few of our own. With Skiles help, I think Lee could make himself into a slightly above average NBA defender.

You consitantly make excellent points on this forum man , great stuff . KEEP POSTING !!!!

[skones]

I don't think Lee has a lot of leverage at this point when it comes to getting him interested in a deal.

I agree. Sure, he could take some one-year/$8mm deal from the Knicks, as the Knicks would love him to do. But let's say the Bucks presented him with a 4/$32 and a player option after year three (again the "TJ contract")

I think in this economy, he'd grab the guaranteed $32 million. I'm not sure what other teams are out there that want to pay him even that much.

From the Knicks standpoint, they can't afford Lee on a multi-year deal at $8mm a year and still have the pipe dream of chasing LeBron and most likely another PF (Amare or Bosh). And they've got Hill.

Which is why I think he'd more than likely jump at a three year deal. At this point in time, I think three year deals are ideal for most teams around the league.

[europa]

Even if Lee would take a three-year deal from the Bucks, it's a very complicated process as outlined by GAD to coordinate a S&T involving him and Sessions. Using the example GAD provided (and I realize it was just an example), I don't see any way the Knicks part with Galinari.

[LUKE23]

As a rookie in 2005-2006, Lee allowed a 19.7 opponent PER to opposing power forwards. During the 2006-2007 season, David Lee allowed a 13.7 opponent PER to power forwards. In 2007-2008, David Lee posted an 18.0 opponent PER at the power forward position. In saying things like, he's a bottom 5 defender in the league, or at least as a big man, you're once again, drastically overstating your own point.

Ok, so two of the three years he was terrible (18.0 PER and 19.7 PER are both really bad), one year he was good, and the small minutes he played there again this year he was terrible.

I don't think you're really making your point skones, but that is just me. If he had posted a few seasons of 13.7, then I would agree. I'd also like to see what the average PF opponent PER is for starting PF's. Maybe bottom 5 is a stretch, but my guess is 18.0, 19.7 and his 21 this year all rank bottom 10 for starting PF's. Don't know if that information is available.

[trwi7]

For reference, these are CV's opponent PER's at PF.

08-09: 18.3
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 19.8
05-06: 20.0

[Newz]

For reference, these are CV's opponent PER's at PF.

08-09: 18.3
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 19.8
05-06: 20.0

CV isn't nearly the defensive rebounder that Lee is... And despite people attempting to ignore it, rebounding is a big part of what happens on the defensive side of the ball.

[LUKE23]

For reference, these are CV's opponent PER's at PF.

08-09: 18.3
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 19.8
05-06: 20.0

vs.

08-09: 21.8 (very limited minutes, but he was bad)
07-08: 18.0
06-07: 13.7
05-06: 19.2

It's clear Lee isn't bad as CV, but if people think CV is the worst PF defender in basketball, then Lee is unquestionably bottom 10.

[Newz]

For reference, these are CV's opponent PER's at PF.

08-09: 18.3
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 19.8
05-06: 20.0

vs.

08-09: 21.8 (very limited minutes, but he was bad)
07-08: 18.0
06-07: 13.7
05-06: 19.2

It's clear Lee isn't bad as CV, but if people think CV is the worst PF defender in basketball, then Lee is unquestionably bottom 10.

Does that stat factor in defensive rebounding?

[LUKE23]

Does that stat factor in defensive rebounding?

It factors in your opponent's production, so yes, it does. If your rebounding kept your man off the glass, his PER obviously wouldn't be as high. But that would assume you stopped your man in the first place.

[Newz]

Does that stat factor in defensive rebounding?

It factors in your opponent's production, so yes, it does. If your rebounding kept your man off the glass, his PER obviously wouldn't be as high. But that would assume you stopped your man in the first place.

So it assumes that Lee is always responsible for one player on every single possession? So when he switches on pick n' rolls and such, it doesn't factor that in?

[LUKE23]

So it assumes that Lee is always responsible for one player on every single possession? So when he switches on pick n' rolls and such, it doesn't factor that in?

No it doesn't, but if that is the case, then we can't use opponent PER at all to evaluate. Lee would help because of his rebounding, but I also see a ton of CV-like nights in terms of the opposing PF going off. Like I said earlier, you have to stop your man before a rebound is available.

[Newz]

So it assumes that Lee is always responsible for one player on every single possession? So when he switches on pick n' rolls and such, it doesn't factor that in?

You're talking about something completely different. Nobody is saying he's not a better rebounder than CV, we're talking about individual D here.

I'm talking about how good of a defensive player David Lee is...

He isn't that great of a defender, but his defensive rebounding makes him very valuable on the defensive end... Far more valuable than the 10th worst defensive power forward in the league when it comes to that side of the ball.

What do you mean I'm talking about something different? If you are trying to factor how good of a defender he is, shouldn't a ton of things be taken into account?

How often does his team switch? How often does that switch create a mismatch? Is he playing out of position? How often is he being asked to help and leave his man? That stat you guys are using doesn't really seem to take any of that into account.

And this is coming from someone who doesn't even like David Lee that much, especially on the defensive end. I'm just annoyed because people are trying to say he is in the bottom 10 defensive players at his position and that couldn't be farther from the truth. Bottom 10 starting PFs, maybe.

[LUKE23]

When I said bottom 10, I meant bottom 10 starters, not bottom 10 overall.

[Newz]

When I said bottom 10, I meant bottom 10 starters, not bottom 10 overall.

Oh, that could certainly be the case then, I agree.

[BucksRUS]

With the Knicks, Lee was playing center last year. Harrington was the PF, what were the center defensive PER's?

[skones]

Ok, so two of the three years he was terrible (18.0 PER and 19.7 PER are both really bad), one year he was good, and the small minutes he played there again this year he was terrible.

I don't think you're really making your point skones, but that is just me. If he had posted a few seasons of 13.7, then I would agree. I'd also like to see what the average PF opponent PER is for starting PF's. Maybe bottom 5 is a stretch, but my guess is 18.0, 19.7 and his 21 this year all rank bottom 10 for starting PF's. Don't know if that information is available.

If you don't think I'm making my point, fine, but I'm providing far more analysis than you have with regards to Lee's defense, so please feel free to make yours. Simply stating he's bottom 5, bottom 10, or an opponent PER of 21.7 while only playing 4% of the available minutes at that position isn't going to cut it.

He's also had guys like Eddy Curry, Al Harrington, Zach Randolph, and Channing Frye playing along side him. That's very little help in the frontcourt. Playing with guys like Marbury and Crawford doesn't help his defense either.

Take this list for example of guys who played extended starter minutes at the four.
Josh Smith 19.7
Tyrus Thomas 18.3
Anderson Varejao 18.4
Kenyon Martin 19.4
Troy Murphy 18.5
Zach Randolph 17.9
Darrell Arthur 21.7
Charlie Villanueva 18.3
Kevin Love 19.1/Ryan Gomes 19.9
Yi 20.3
Jeff Green 18.0
Jason Thompson 18.9
Matt Bonner 18.1
Carlos Boozer 22.5
Antawn Jamison 17.8

Obviously, a PER around 18 is by no means bottom 10 in the league. In fact, an opponent PER around 18 is closer to average than anything else. Another thing to look at, is the change in opponent PER when going from one situation to another.

For instance:
From 2007-2008 to 2008-2009 Charlie Villanueva's opponent PER went from 20.4 to 18.3. We all know, LRMAM and Bogut helped transform this team into one that was pretty sound on the defensive end with help from Skiles as a coach. That, in turn, made Villanueva's defense look much better statistically but we all saw Villanueva do many of the some things he had done in previous years.

Rashard Lewis. He's a classic example of how getting put next to a defensive minded big will do to your opponent PER. Playing 68% of the available minutes at PF for the Magic, Lewis posted an opponent PER of 14.2. Is anyone going to claim he's an ALL-NBA caliber defender? No, because that's the effect of a guy like Howard challenging shots behind him. Thaddeus Young had much of the same benefits with Dalembert behind him. Zach Randolph's opponent PER improved by nearly a full point while playing next to a guy like Camby and Kaman for a limited amount of time and he did it on a team that was worse than the one he had played with in the season prior.

Antawn Jamison's opponent PER slipped from 16.7 in the 2007-2008 season to 17.8 in the 2008-2009 season. His frontcourt mate, Brendan Haywood (one of the better defensive centers in the game) was absent.

Corey Maggette played 27% of the available minutes at PF for Golden State and posted a 16.2 opponent PER in a system which is supposed to be notoriously bad for defensive numbers..... Biedrins anyone?

[skones]

With the Knicks, Lee was playing center last year. Harrington was the PF, what were the center defensive PER's?

He posted a 19.7 opponent PER at center whilst playing out of position.

[skones]

For reference, these are CV's opponent PER's at PF.

08-09: 18.3
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 19.8
05-06: 20.0

vs.

08-09: 21.8 (very limited minutes, but he was bad)
07-08: 18.0
06-07: 13.7
05-06: 19.2

It's clear Lee isn't bad as CV, but if people think CV is the worst PF defender in basketball, then Lee is unquestionably bottom 10.

Again, it boggles my mind why you insist on using that 21.8 number for Lee. You're reaching when you use it, because he posted an opponent PER nearly two points better playing OUT OF POSITION all year long.