What level of success would make the Gobert trade acceptable?

[urinesane]

Previously posted in the Gobert thread, but added a poll here for funzies.

OK, so I had a thought.

Nobody is getting anywhere arguing about the trade. The Wolves obviously over spent for Gobert, there is no arguing against that.

What I want to ask, is what level of success makes it a trade that was worth doing? Even if it was an overpay (which it was), what is the metric of success that would make people not believe it was the worst thing ever and Tim Connely should go to jail?

I am not saying any of this WILL happen, but IF one of the above happens, at what point does the trade become worth it to this franchise?

I would honestly take multiple 2nd round appearances + a WCF appearance (or anything above obviously) as a win for the Wolves in this trade. After years of lottery picks leading to nothing but losing or at it's best mediocrity, making the WCF for the 2nd time in franchise history would be a pretty big improvement.

If you say that nothing could make this trade worth it, then I am not really interested in your reply, because you've obviously made up your mind to the point that you'd somehow say winning an NBA Championship isn't enough to trade some veteran players, a really good defender, a solid rookie center, and some sh*tty draft picks (which is what they would be if they had that success).

Again, let's not argue about IF this sh*t will happen. I see nothing but long diaries about how horrible the trade was in every comment section of everything Wolves related, I get it. What I AM interested in is what people think the line is where this trade stops being horrible and ends up actually being worth it. There HAS to be a line right?

What you do you think it is?

Keep in mind that ALL of the above (outside of hating Gobert no matter what) would be new ground for the franchise and would be more success than they've ever had.

[Battletrigger]

IDGAF about second rounds. It will only worth it if we get what Toronto got.

[Calinks]

For me it would be deep playoff runs. We don't have to win a chip with Gobert but I would want the team to be on a high competitive level that garners us lots of big time game experiences and sharpens our players into playoff caliber vets. Something like the Suns of the early aughts, the Miami Heat in recent, years or even the Utah Jazz of recent years. A team that is constantly in the conversation of contention.

[urinesane]

IDGAF about second rounds. It will only worth it if we get what Toronto got.

The Wolves have only made it to the 2nd round in the playoffs once.

Not that it's a super high bar, but it's sadly true.

So are you saying that the expectation of those 5FRP combined with Vando, PatBev, Beasley, Balmero, and Kessler with the current roster is a championship?

Or does the math change when we don't consolidate these assets into one player?

[urinesane]

For me it would be deep playoff runs. We don't have to win a chip with Gobert but I would want the team to be on a high competitive level that garners us lots of big time game experiences and sharpens our players into playoff caliber vets. Something like the Suns of the early aughts, the Miami Heat in recent, years or even the Utah Jazz of recent years. A team that is constantly in the conversation of contention.

How dare you bring sound logic and a reasonable opinion into this conversation!

[bluethunder0005]

I want regular season success, home court in at least 1 round if not 2, and multiple 2nd round appearances. Probably a WCF visit as well. Winning a ring is tough, and honestly over the last 15 years you need one of the best players in the league on your team to do it. If the team has sustained success then those picks we gave up are 20 or later and those likely aren't very valuable.

[shrink]

The Wolves have only made it to the 2nd round in the playoffs once.

I was just about to say the same thing. We often hear the “oh but MIN gave up too many draft picks!” .. and that’s 100% true. However, we have had 33 seasons worth of draft picks .. sometimes more than one, and usually better picks in the lottery .. and with 33 picks, we’ve made it to the second round ONCE.

Now, whatever answer people give to this is fine .. it’s their opinion. But for me, getting to the second round twice would make this the most successful playoff team in Wolves history, and I believe that this group, if they use Gobert well, has a chance to do even better.

[Dalvin]

If Jaden blossoms into an all star, consistently becomes an All Defense team and Ant/Jaden continually have deep post season runs, then the overpay is definitely worth it.
I'd rather have Jaden than two or three of those picks we gave up to get Gobert.

[younggunsmn]

The Wolves have only made it to the 2nd round in the playoffs once.

I was just about to say the same thing. We often hear the “oh but MIN gave up too many draft picks!” .. and that’s 100% true. However, we have had 33 seasons worth of draft picks .. sometimes more than one, and usually better picks in the lottery .. and with 33 picks, we’ve made it to the second round ONCE.

Now, whatever answer people give to this is fine .. it’s their opinion. But for me, getting to the second round twice would make this the most successful playoff team in Wolves history, and I believe that this group, if they use Gobert well, has a chance to do even better.

We don't judge this trade against 33 years of failure.
We judge it against the contracts and assets we held on July 5th 2022 before we made the trade and the 46 wins we had the year prior.
And the window should be the 4 years Rudy Gobert had remaining on his contract at that point.
That doesn't change if or until Gobert is again traded.

So to me, the trade would only be acceptable with either one championship or 2 finals appearances over the next 3 years, since year one was a clear failure. And even then I would harbor doubts about what could have been long term.
Because we are going to still be paying the price for this trade for 3 years after that initial 4 year window.

These are the assets we held at the time:
C: KAT, Kessler, NAZ, Knight
PF: Vanderbilt, Anderson, Minott
SF: McDaniels, Prince, Moore
SG: Edwards, Beasley, Nowell
PG: Russell, Beverly, McLaughlin, Bolmaro

1st round Draft Picks:
2023(16th overall)
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

Take All of those things highlighted in pink (plus the swap in green), along with the opportunity cost of everything they could provide either on the court or in trade, weighed against the impact of Rudy Gobert this season and over the next 3 years.

4 years of Walkers Kessler dirt cheap plus a potential rookie extension alone is enough to make me regret it already.

So one title or 2 finals appearances to even be neutral for me.
Because I think the players and assets we had on July 5th 2022 would have easily gotten us to the 2nd round a couple of times over the following 4 years with even conservative management.

So tough watching Jarred Vanderbilt chase around Ja Morant and Steph Curry in the playoffs plus he's locked up next year for 4 million. Guys don't have to be stars or even great on both ends of the floor if they know their role and are really really good at it and not making a ton of money.
And we knew that about him and threw him in anyway.
Where was the 1st round pick we didn't have to give up to include him?

[Note30]

For every major news outlet to call us a championship contender for 3 years atleast

[Domejandro]

If by the end of his tenure, Minnesota reaches the Western-Conference Finals at least once, it'll be worth it.

[urinesane]

The Wolves have only made it to the 2nd round in the playoffs once.

I was just about to say the same thing. We often hear the “oh but MIN gave up too many draft picks!” .. and that’s 100% true. However, we have had 33 seasons worth of draft picks .. sometimes more than one, and usually better picks in the lottery .. and with 33 picks, we’ve made it to the second round ONCE.

Now, whatever answer people give to this is fine .. it’s their opinion. But for me, getting to the second round twice would make this the most successful playoff team in Wolves history, and I believe that this group, if they use Gobert well, has a chance to do even better.

We don't judge this trade against 33 years of failure.
We judge it against the contracts and assets we held on July 5th 2022 before we made the trade and the 46 wins we had the year prior.
And the window should be the 4 years Rudy Gobert had remaining on his contract at that point.
That doesn't change if or until Gobert is again traded.

So to me, the trade would only be acceptable with either one championship or 2 finals appearances over the next 3 years, since year one was a clear failure. And even then I would harbor doubts about what could have been long term.
Because we are going to still be paying the price for this trade for 3 years after that initial 4 year window.

These are the assets we held at the time:
C: KAT, Kessler, NAZ, Knight
PF: Vanderbilt, Anderson, Minott
SF: McDaniels, Prince, Moore
SG: Edwards, Beasley, Nowell
PG: Russell, Beverly, McLaughlin, Bolmaro

1st round Draft Picks:
2023(16th overall)
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

Take All of those things highlighted in pink (plus the swap in green), along with the opportunity cost of everything they could provide either on the court or in trade, weighed against the impact of Rudy Gobert this season and over the next 3 years.

4 years of Walkers Kessler dirt cheap plus a potential rookie extension alone is enough to make me regret it already.

So one title or 2 finals appearances to even be neutral for me.
Because I think the players and assets we had on July 5th 2022 would have easily gotten us to the 2nd round a couple of times over the following 4 years with even conservative management.

So tough watching Jarred Vanderbilt chase around Ja Morant and Steph Curry in the playoffs plus he's locked up next year for 4 million. Guys don't have to be stars or even great on both ends of the floor if they know their role and are really really good at it and not making a ton of money.
And we knew that about him and threw him in anyway.
Where was the 1st round pick we didn't have to give up to include him?

Why do you follow this team if your margin for happiness is so incredibly small?

Seriously, if the only way you will be "neutral" is if they win a championship or appear in multiple championships... just save that time in your life and get a new hobby, this clearly makes you miserable.

You are upset that we gave up assets that in your estimate would be a 2nd round contender for years and have now somehow turned that into expecting championship appearances or a win in the next 3 seasons?

I started this thread partially because I had a theory that a good amount of Wolves fans want to be miserable. They forget the past and move the goal posts just far enough to justify their misery.

You should step away from this and work on being happier in your personal life, this is not healthy for you.

I'm being serious, this isn't just some internet snark. We have so little time on this Earth, spend your time doing things you enjoy. This is clearly not one of them.

[Calinks]

One thing I keep thinking about is how hugely important fit and cohesion is. We have a serious amount of talent on this team. We have had a lot of talent in the last 8 years. Names like Butler, Towns, Lavine, Wiggins, Vanderbelt, Russell, have played here but we never had great success with them. Now we see these guys in big games on other teams. Wiggins has a ring and was a major player. Butler is carrying the Heat. Vando and Dlo are in the second round and may make the conference finals as key pieces. Lavine has been a known name and a recognizable star.

None of those guys are horrible players. We just didn't have teams around them or had enough time with them to build something really good. Gobert we already know, is an all time defender. We have to find a way to get pieces that fit and we have to keep them together so they can grow. That doesn't mean we shouldn't make another trade but we really need to start putting something cohesive together and we need stop blowing everything up every year.

Most of the teams that are in the second round right now have largely been built for years. The Lakers have a ton of new pieces but they still have their core of Lebron and AD who have been there for some time and are vet players. The Wolves need to start doing that.

[TimberKat]

If we kept all the pieces, what's our chance getting to the finals?

I voted for getting to the finals at least once but it's not all on Gobert but assuming other players also contribute. On the contrary, if Gobert sits on the bench all year and we get to the final, the trade is also a failure.

[urinesane]

One thing I keep thinking about is how hugely important fit and cohesion is. We have a serious amount of talent on this team. We have had a lot of talent in the last 8 years. Names like Butler, Towns, Lavine, Wiggins, Vanderbelt, Russell, have played here but we never had great success with them. Now we see these guys in big games on other teams. Wiggins has a ring and was a major player. Butler is carrying the Heat. Vando and Dlo are in the second round and may make the conference finals as key pieces. Lavine has been a known name and a recognizable star.

None of those guys are horrible players. We just didn't have teams around them or had enough time with them to build something really good. Gobert we already know, is an all time defender. We have to find a way to get pieces that fit and we have to keep them together so they can grow. That doesn't mean we shouldn't make another trade but we really need to start putting something cohesive together and we need stop blowing everything up every year.

Most of the teams that are in the second round right now have largely been built for years. The Lakers have a ton of new pieces but they still have their core of Lebron and AD who have been there for some time and are vet players. The Wolves need to start doing that.

This. I can't think of times where we've had a roster that was consistent for more than 2 years (and usually not even that). Sure, there were reasons (often times being a lack of talent/vets/guys to build around), but this team has plenty of talent, so that clearly isn't the issue this time.

Factor in how often we've changed coaches, it's kind of confusing to see all of the people calling for Finch's job (or even putting him on the hot seat for a tough season where they STILL made the playoffs). I think a lot of it is that Wolves fans (and MN sports fans in general) have been programmed to react emotionally (and want to make decisions based on those emotions) and in the past there hasn't been strong enough ownership/leadership to block out that noise and push forward through the adversity all teams face on their way to relevancy.

This isn't just MN sports fans obv, but is a symptom of many fan bases that have had a long stretch of mediocrity/futility (I'm sure plenty of people wanted Thibs gone in NY after they missed the playoffs last season). It's a symptom of losing and creates a feedback loop/vicious cycle that continues the outcomes that those fans so desperately are looking to avoid.

[frankenwolf]

I was just about to say the same thing. We often hear the “oh but MIN gave up too many draft picks!” .. and that’s 100% true. However, we have had 33 seasons worth of draft picks .. sometimes more than one, and usually better picks in the lottery .. and with 33 picks, we’ve made it to the second round ONCE.

Now, whatever answer people give to this is fine .. it’s their opinion. But for me, getting to the second round twice would make this the most successful playoff team in Wolves history, and I believe that this group, if they use Gobert well, has a chance to do even better.

We don't judge this trade against 33 years of failure.
We judge it against the contracts and assets we held on July 5th 2022 before we made the trade and the 46 wins we had the year prior.
And the window should be the 4 years Rudy Gobert had remaining on his contract at that point.
That doesn't change if or until Gobert is again traded.

So to me, the trade would only be acceptable with either one championship or 2 finals appearances over the next 3 years, since year one was a clear failure. And even then I would harbor doubts about what could have been long term.
Because we are going to still be paying the price for this trade for 3 years after that initial 4 year window.

4 years of Walkers Kessler dirt cheap plus a potential rookie extension alone is enough to make me regret it already.

So one title or 2 finals appearances to even be neutral for me.
Because I think the players and assets we had on July 5th 2022 would have easily gotten us to the 2nd round a couple of times over the following 4 years with even conservative management.

So tough watching Jarred Vanderbilt chase around Ja Morant and Steph Curry in the playoffs plus he's locked up next year for 4 million. Guys don't have to be stars or even great on both ends of the floor if they know their role and are really really good at it and not making a ton of money.
And we knew that about him and threw him in anyway.
Where was the 1st round pick we didn't have to give up to include him?

Why do you follow this team if your margin for happiness is so incredibly small?

Seriously, if the only way you will be "neutral" is if they win a championship or appear in multiple championships... just save that time in your life and get a new hobby, this clearly makes you miserable.

You are upset that we gave up assets that in your estimate would be a 2nd round contender for years and have now somehow turned that into expecting championship appearances or a win in the next 3 seasons?

I started this thread partially because I had a theory that a good amount of Wolves fans want to be miserable. They forget the past and move the goal posts just far enough to justify their misery.

You should step away from this and work on being happier in your personal life, this is not healthy for you.

I'm being serious, this isn't just some internet snark. We have so little time on this Earth, spend your time doing things you enjoy. This is clearly not one of them.

I agree. It's very premature to draw the conclusion that Kessler is going to be a better deal than Gobert over the next four years just because Kessler had one productive year. He very well could turn into Shawn Bradley or Greg Oden. As was stated earlier, we've had all kinds of picks and they have gotten us (practically) no where. You guys know me, I'm eternally optimistic about the wolves and think that this year would have been better than last year with out KAT missing 50+ games. I thought D'lo would work with Gobert and he didn't. Now we have Mike who has worked well with Gobert before and should continue to do so. With our current squad, this team can contend in the western conference and win it a couple of times before Gobert's contract is up. They should be able to win an NBA championship, but those are tough.

[Calinks]

One thing I keep thinking about is how hugely important fit and cohesion is. We have a serious amount of talent on this team. We have had a lot of talent in the last 8 years. Names like Butler, Towns, Lavine, Wiggins, Vanderbelt, Russell, have played here but we never had great success with them. Now we see these guys in big games on other teams. Wiggins has a ring and was a major player. Butler is carrying the Heat. Vando and Dlo are in the second round and may make the conference finals as key pieces. Lavine has been a known name and a recognizable star.

None of those guys are horrible players. We just didn't have teams around them or had enough time with them to build something really good. Gobert we already know, is an all time defender. We have to find a way to get pieces that fit and we have to keep them together so they can grow. That doesn't mean we shouldn't make another trade but we really need to start putting something cohesive together and we need stop blowing everything up every year.

Most of the teams that are in the second round right now have largely been built for years. The Lakers have a ton of new pieces but they still have their core of Lebron and AD who have been there for some time and are vet players. The Wolves need to start doing that.

This. I can't think of times where we've had a roster that was consistent for more than 2 years (and usually not even that). Sure, there were reasons (often times being a lack of talent/vets/guys to build around), but this team has plenty of talent, so that clearly isn't the issue this time.

Factor in how often we've changed coaches, it's kind of confusing to see all of the people calling for Finch's job (or even putting him on the hot seat for a tough season where they STILL made the playoffs). I think a lot of it is that Wolves fans (and MN sports fans in general) have been programmed to react emotionally (and want to make decisions based on those emotions) and in the past there hasn't been strong enough ownership/leadership to block out that noise and push forward through the adversity all teams face on their way to relevancy.

This isn't just MN sports fans obv, but is a symptom of many fan bases that have had a long stretch of mediocrity/futility (I'm sure plenty of people wanted Thibs gone in NY after they missed the playoffs last season). It's a symptom of losing and creates a feedback loop/vicious cycle that continues the outcomes that those fans so desperately are looking to avoid.

Yep. I get the talk of firing Finch. We have had a lot of the same issues, his apparent lack of a gameplan to close games out frustrates me. I think he has made mistakes. At the same time I think he is a really talented coach, the players seem to like him and let him coach them, he has done a lot of good. I'd like to stick with Finch for the long haul and let him grow with this team.

Mike Malone has had to grow, Spolestra has been with the Heat forever, there is definitely something to be said for longevity.
Part of a team having an identity is having an established coach that sets a tone. The Heat always have an identity as a team that will be fit, and push other teams hard. Part of that is Spolstra.

As for trades, I also think we need to start developing and keeping guys. That said, the two bigs things, I don't know if we can make it work with KAT and Rudy so I am not against making a trade there but in general I want to stop blowing everything up every year. Let's get an identity and build it up over the course of time.

[Baseline81]

This. I can't think of times where we've had a roster that was consistent for more than 2 years (and usually not even that). Sure, there were reasons (often times being a lack of talent/vets/guys to build around), but this team has plenty of talent, so that clearly isn't the issue this time.

Factor in how often we've changed coaches, it's kind of confusing to see all of the people calling for Finch's job (or even putting him on the hot seat for a tough season where they STILL made the playoffs). I think a lot of it is that Wolves fans (and MN sports fans in general) have been programmed to react emotionally (and want to make decisions based on those emotions) and in the past there hasn't been strong enough ownership/leadership to block out that noise and push forward through the adversity all teams face on their way to relevancy.

This isn't just MN sports fans obv, but is a symptom of many fan bases that have had a long stretch of mediocrity/futility (I'm sure plenty of people wanted Thibs gone in NY after they missed the playoffs last season). It's a symptom of losing and creates a feedback loop/vicious cycle that continues the outcomes that those fans so desperately are looking to avoid.

Care to explain Milwaukee firing its coach?

By your reasoning, the organization reacted too emotionally as he led the Bucks to the best record in the league.

[Klomp]

Care to explain Milwaukee firing its coach?

By your reasoning, the organization reacted too emotionally as he led the Bucks to the best record in the league.

They did. Firing him was pretty dumb. Only reason that would make it a smart move is if Bud and Giannis had a falling out.

I do wonder if it's a move made that they want to keep assistant Charles Lee from moving on to Toronto or Detroit, but that's just my speculation.

Read on Twitter

[urinesane]

This. I can't think of times where we've had a roster that was consistent for more than 2 years (and usually not even that). Sure, there were reasons (often times being a lack of talent/vets/guys to build around), but this team has plenty of talent, so that clearly isn't the issue this time.

Factor in how often we've changed coaches, it's kind of confusing to see all of the people calling for Finch's job (or even putting him on the hot seat for a tough season where they STILL made the playoffs). I think a lot of it is that Wolves fans (and MN sports fans in general) have been programmed to react emotionally (and want to make decisions based on those emotions) and in the past there hasn't been strong enough ownership/leadership to block out that noise and push forward through the adversity all teams face on their way to relevancy.

This isn't just MN sports fans obv, but is a symptom of many fan bases that have had a long stretch of mediocrity/futility (I'm sure plenty of people wanted Thibs gone in NY after they missed the playoffs last season). It's a symptom of losing and creates a feedback loop/vicious cycle that continues the outcomes that those fans so desperately are looking to avoid.

Care to explain Milwaukee firing its coach?

By your reasoning, the organization reacted too emotionally as he led the Bucks to the best record in the league.

The coach is always the easiest scapegoat and change. Though the two situations are completely different as with the Bucks they have sort of seen the full range of his coaching/system and want to move in a different direction. He had 5 seasons with Giannis (since he was 23 years old), that's a much larger sample size to judge a coach than 2.5 years with a patchwork roster and a ton of youth. Not saying that firing Bud was the right choice, but the logic is much more easy to understand than the Finch hate.

Finch has barely scratched the surface of what he is capable of as a HC imo. How did the expectation of Timberwolves coaches suddenly become that they don't make mistakes or they should be replaced?

Players make mistakes, EVERYONE makes mistakes. The most important two things when it comes to mistakes is:

1.) Does the person recognize and own this mistake?
2.) Is this person willing and capable of addressing this mistake, so that it doesn't become a trend?

I'd say yes to both of those when it comes to Finch. He isn't Thibs saying "My way or f*ck you.".

You never expect a player to be a finished product in their first years. The main factor is awareness of areas that need to be improved and a willingness/work ethic/ability to improve in those areas.

Why are coaches treated as if they are static? Finch has had A LOT thrown at him in his first 2.5 seasons and of course he hasn't navigated it all perfectly, but he's done a pretty damn good job (and has shown not only the ability to own mistakes, but also to adapt).

Take every single coach the Wolves have ever had and try to think how they would have dealt with the same rosters and adversity that Finch has dealt with so far. I can't think of a single coach in Wolves history that would have handled it better.

1.) He took over a team that was 7 - 24 and LAST in the NBA and had them looking somewhat competent by the end of the season.
2.) He took a team with MASSIVE weaknesses and created systems that helped them overachieve and make the playoffs for the first time since Butler took a dump on the franchise.
3.) He took a roster that the new FO completely revamped that was now built for a style that ISN'T EVEN ATTEMPTED in the modern NBA, had his best player (KAT was the best player on the roster coming into the season) miss 52 games AND STILL made the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row, which was the first time since KEVIN F*CKING GARNETT was here nearly 20 years ago.

Holy sh*t guys. Did you get a lobotomy to forget how TERRIBLE we've been for the past 20 years?

I mean I know it's a "What have you done for me lately?" league, but so many of you have suddenly turned into mindless Laker-esque fans after 1 playoff season?