WCSF Discussion

younggunsmn · Post #41 » by **younggunsmn** » Thu May 2, 2024 9:53 am

Right now it's almost a coinflip who wins the series in my mind.
The teams are so evenly matched and well coached, know each other so well from the top to the bottom of the organization.

Denver has the experience and has been there before and been through the fire and come out with a title.
The Wolves have the youth and hunger and crazy momentum.

Denver beat the Lakers, but it was a little below their standards, they trailed more than they lead even though they won 4-1.
Wolves LEVELED UP from their regular season selves against the Suns and played 4 of their best games over the last 20 years all in a row.

I know one thing for sure, Denver's defense is going to be much much tougher than Phoenix's.
Their main ballhandlers Jokic and Murray will be more surehanded and confident, and their coach is going to have counter punches ready for what we throw at them.
We beat Phoenix without ever having to double team. We will need to be more creative to slow down Jokic.

How well KAT is able to defend Jokic, and how well he is able to stay out of foul trouble, are probably the keys to the series.
That means we can't afford any offensive fouls from him or silly fouls fighting for rebounds. Zero.

How physical are the brand managers going to let us be? How are they going to ref Jokic?
Does Ant's rise towards superstardom change the equation for how the league allows their brand managers to ref the Timberwolves?

Denver doesn't use their bench a ton, but it's better than I thought it would be.
It's a lot better than when we played them in November.
They play hard, they defend, and they can hit an open shot.
The weakness of their bench is their big men behind Joker.
If he gets into any kind of foul trouble, they will need to go small.

They are probably going to throw every look and every defender they can at Ant.
Porter and Gordon can bother him with their size and length on switches and at the basket.
They will probably hide Murray on Jaden or Mike, but Jokic is the guy I think we should attack, tire him out and force Denver into giving him help which should tilt their defense enough to get us some open looks.

To me, the key to the Phoenix series, besides our insanely good defense, was our ability to take care of the ball (which also really helped our defense). We didn't have a lot of live ball turnovers or miss a lot of shots at the rim that lead to run outs.

There was a lot of that happening in our loss at Denver the last week of the season that blew open an otherwise very tight game.
If we take care of the ball and take good shots, it should allow our half court defense to suffocate them enough to win any game we play against Denver.

To me this is the finals right here.
With Porzingis hurt for Boston, I don't think there is another team that can even win 3 games in a series against Denver if we can't beat them.
And if we can beat Peak Jokic and a fully healthy Denver, I would favor us against OKC/Dallas and Boston.

winforlose · Post #42 » by **winforlose** » Thu May 2, 2024 10:45 pm

Calling it now Wolves in 6.

Note30 · Post #43 » by **Note30** » Thu May 2, 2024 11:48 pm

Does anyone know what time the game is on Saturday or when it will be announced? ESPN and NBA are showing TBD?

winforlose · Post #44 » by **winforlose** » Fri May 3, 2024 12:04 am

Note30 wrote:Does anyone know what time the game is on Saturday or when it will be announced? ESPN and NBA are showing TBD?

I think we will know when the next team is eliminated.

shrink · Post #45 » by **shrink** » Fri May 3, 2024 1:54 am

I think if you asked people before the playoffs to list the four toughest teams for MIN to beat, they would be PHX, DEN, OKC, BOS

That’s exactly who we may face to win a championship. And you know what? I say: Bring. It. On.

Too often we see teams advance in the playoffs because they had an easy path. The Lakers last year, or the Kings the year before. People remember. I want us to face every one of these contenders in a seven game series, and see if they have the stuff to beat us. I want a ring that decades later, people will remember, and will announce to the world that Ant and the Timberwolves time is now.

winforlose · Post #46 » by **winforlose** » Fri May 3, 2024 3:09 am

shrink wrote:I think if you asked people before the playoffs to list the four toughest teams for MIN to beat, they would be PHX, DEN, OKC, BOS

That’s exactly who we may face to win a championship. And you know what? I say: Bring. It. On.

Too often we see teams advance in the playoffs because they had an easy path. The Lakers last year, or the Kings the year before. People remember. I want us to face every one of these contenders in a seven game series, and see if they have the stuff to beat us. I want a ring that decades later, people will remember, and will announce to the world that Ant and the Timberwolves time is now.

I agree with the sentiment, but we cannot exactly play the Suns in a seven game series. Some team already swept them

Saltine · Post #47 » by **Saltine** » Fri May 3, 2024 9:00 am

Note30 wrote:Does anyone know what time the game is on Saturday or when it will be announced? ESPN and NBA are showing TBD?

18:00 Central Time

TimberKat · Post #48 » by **TimberKat** » Sat May 4, 2024 2:48 pm

shrink wrote:I think if you asked people before the playoffs to list the four toughest teams for MIN to beat, they would be PHX, DEN, OKC, BOS

That’s exactly who we may face to win a championship. And you know what? I say: Bring. It. On.

Too often we see teams advance in the playoffs because they had an easy path. The Lakers last year, or the Kings the year before. People remember. I want us to face every one of these contenders in a seven game series, and see if they have the stuff to beat us. I want a ring that decades later, people will remember, and will announce to the world that Ant and the Timberwolves time is now.

Wolves need to shine brighter than the Sun, more valuable than gold, louder than thunder and luckier than a Leprechaun. Man, that is no easy feat

Clav · Post #49 » by **Clav** » Sat May 4, 2024 6:15 pm

I am so ready for this game this afternoon (for me). Let's go Wolves!

Truly, was happy to see DEN break through and win it last year, but gutted that my two primary teams didn't make it that far. And The Wolves had so many unfortunate injuries last season. This year, KAT is the only question but looked fine vs PHX overall.

I'm picking MIN in 6 but definitely think this could go 7, just hoping we wear them down and Murray plays like trash in a couple of games because we have length to bother him for sure. Ant 'winning us 2 games' would be lovely because the bench and rest of team can win us 2 as well. I'm using the common parlance that a player can 'win you a game' if you catch my drift, of course it's a team game. But if they will us to victory in the critical moments which this series will be full of.... Getting to 1-1 would be great on the road.

winforlose · Post #50 » by **winforlose** » Mon May 6, 2024 8:00 am

The Wolves did not lose 3 in a row in the entire regular season. If they take game 2, the odds of losing 4 out of 5 including at least 2 at home seem very low. They need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. You may not close out Denver with this win, but you put them on life support.

FrenchMinnyFan · Post #51 » by **FrenchMinnyFan** » Mon May 6, 2024 9:46 am

I agree. Game 2 is very important. If we back home with 2 wins, i don't see them come back. But i still see the series going to 7. Denver is just too good and they will adjust from previous game. Go Wolves !

KGdaBom · Post #52 » by **KGdaBom** » Mon May 6, 2024 1:27 pm

winforlose wrote:The Wolves did not lose 3 in a row in the entire regular season. If they take game 2, the odds of losing 4 out of 5 including at least 2 at home seem very low. They need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. You may not close out Denver with this win, but you put them on life support.

I want to give you a +1, but I don't believe we need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. We need to play with the urgency that every playoff game should be played at.
What are the stats on teams winning the first two on the road winning the series?

KGdaBom · Post #53 » by **KGdaBom** » Mon May 6, 2024 1:41 pm

I would hope that KAT's play so far in the 2024 playoffs has been enough to put to rest the notion that he should be benched in favor of Naz. I'm guessing it hasn't though. Some are probably holding on to that notion.

BlacJacMac · Post #54 » by **BlacJacMac** » Mon May 6, 2024 1:58 pm

KGdaBom wrote:
winforlose wrote:The Wolves did not lose 3 in a row in the entire regular season. If they take game 2, the odds of losing 4 out of 5 including at least 2 at home seem very low. They need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. You may not close out Denver with this win, but you put them on life support.

I want to give you a +1, but I don't believe we need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. We need to play with the urgency that every playoff game should be played at.
What are the stats on teams winning the first two on the road winning the series?

Only four teams have ever won playoff series after losing the first two games at home, and the only time it was out of the first round was Houston beating the Suns in the semis in 1994.

(The others were Houston over Dallas in 2005, Boston over Chicago in 2017, and Clippers over the Mavs in 2021.)

KGdaBom · Post #55 » by **KGdaBom** » Mon May 6, 2024 2:00 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:
winforlose wrote:The Wolves did not lose 3 in a row in the entire regular season. If they take game 2, the odds of losing 4 out of 5 including at least 2 at home seem very low. They need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. You may not close out Denver with this win, but you put them on life support.

I want to give you a +1, but I don't believe we need to play with the urgency of an elimination game. We need to play with the urgency that every playoff game should be played at.
What are the stats on teams winning the first two on the road winning the series?

Only four teams have ever won playoff series after losing the first two games at home, and the only time it was out of the first round was Houston beating the Suns in the semis in 1994.

(The others were Houston over Dallas in 2005, Boston over Chicago in 2017, and Clippers over the Mavs in 2021.)

Thanks. Any idea how many opportunities to come back from losing the first two games at home there have been? I'm guessing it doesn't happen very often. I need to know that to calculate the percentage of times it happens.

winforlose · Post #56 » by **winforlose** » Mon May 6, 2024 2:52 pm

I keep hearing Ant say he wants to kill what is in front of him. I also keep hearing that Ant has become the full team leader. So this is a likely summary of Ant’s speech to the team before home games.

Watch on YouTube

TimberKat · Post #57 » by **TimberKat** » Mon May 6, 2024 3:08 pm

Some stats from Google: Of the 312 times that a team has gone down 0-2 in a seven-game series in NBA history, the team trailing has comeback to win the series just 27 times (8.7 percent). Of those 27 teams to complete the comeback, only five of them went down 0-2 while holding home-court advantage in the series.

A win tonight at DEN, would basically finish the series. Puppies, don't play with your food. Let's get it done.

KGdaBom · Post #58 » by **KGdaBom** » Mon May 6, 2024 4:18 pm

TimberKat wrote:Some stats from Google: Of the 312 times that a team has gone down 0-2 in a seven-game series in NBA history, the team trailing has comeback to win the series just 27 times (8.7 percent). Of those 27 teams to complete the comeback, only five of them went down 0-2 while holding home-court advantage in the series.

A win tonight at DEN, would basically finish the series. Puppies, don't play with your food. Let's get it done.

What this shows is as expected the higher seeded team will take a 2-0 far more often than the lower seeded team.

TimberKat · Post #59 » by **TimberKat** » Tue May 7, 2024 2:58 pm

Is it too soon to talk about next round? Yes, it is but I now hope DAL beat OKC even though I hate DAL, Kyrie, and their Guitar logo under the basket (so distracting). I think OKC maybe the most difficult match up now because they are deep, our Ant pick and roll game doesn't work well with Holmgren, SGA has been unstoppable.

Colbinii · Post #60 » by **Colbinii** » Tue May 7, 2024 3:20 pm

TimberKat wrote:Is it too soon to talk about next round? Yes, it is but I now hope DAL beat OKC even though I hate DAL, Kyrie, and their Guitar logo under the basket (so distracting). I think OKC maybe the most difficult match up now because they are deep, our Ant pick and roll game doesn't work well with Holmgren, SGA has been unstoppable.

I disagree for a few reasons.

1) SGA has been extremely mortal in this post-season and he doesn't actually have a 3P shot. This allows us to really suck up space with McDaniels/ANT/NAW.
2) I think OKC's bench is overrated. Giddey should be unplayable in a playoff series against us while Wallace/Wiggins/Joe are all worse than NAW/Reid/SlowMo. OKC has a regular season bench where they are NBA rotation players but not really high-end playoff rotation players like Naz/NAW/SlowMo.
3) Luka/Kyrie are much more potent than SGA/JDub as scorers AND playmakers
4) Dallas has decent size, OKC has no size