Summer Cap Space Numbers

[shrink]

Note: I edited

The trade deadline has passed, and we have a better look at where our picks will land, so I thought it was time to revisit our summer cap space numbers.

$13,000,000 Al Jefferson
$3,964,320 Ramon Sessions
$3,638,280 Kevin Love
$3,192,000 Jonny Flynn
$3,703,472 Corey Brewer
$2,333,333 Ryan Hollins
$1,078,800 Wayne Ellington
$1,000,000 (Ryan Gomes)

$2,812,200 Rights to Ricky Rubio

$3,336,800 MIN 2010 1st (currently #2)
$1,328,400 CHA 2010 1st (currently #15) ($0 if #12 or higher)
$933,500 UTA 2010 1st (currently #25) ($0 if #15 or higher)

$473,604 Minimum Roster Holds


$40,794,710 ... Total

$12,805,290 ... Expected 2010 Cap Space

However, there's some variability that could alter that number between now and then

Guaranteed Contracts (7): In an NBA system where contracts are guaranteed, it would appear that there'd be little flexibility in these numbers, but it can still occur.

First, as many of you may have noticed, I've listed Ryan Gomes at $1,000,000 for 2010. Gomes is on a partially guaranteed contract, and if he's waived before June 30, 2010, he's only guaranteed a $1 mil in 2010-11, $1 mil in 2011-12, and $750,000 in 2012-13. Its a shame to waive Gomes who is a good player on a good contract, but the additional $3.26 mil in raw cap space it brings may make it difficult to avoid.

Next, there's always the chance for a late season trade. Many people believe that once the Trade Deadline passes, a team can't trade again for the rest of the NBA season. That's not quite true. A team can't trade for the rest of "their" NBA season. As Kahn demonstrated with the Mike Miller/Randy Foye trade, we can occasionally see these late season maneuverings.

However, this won't save us much cap space. Expiring contracts can't be traded after the deadline, so we'd need to deal with a player who was guaranteed 2010-11 salary. The only way to move real money would be to deal with the teams under the 2009-10 cap or with TPE's. OKC ($2.5 mil) and MEM ($0.2 mil) don't match up or provide real savings under the cap, and the teams with TPE's have luxury tax problems and would be unlikely to deal. Perhaps a Jefferson trade could save some money within the 125% + $100,000 range, or a partially guaranteed deal could be acquired, but there are very few of those still around. A trade probably isn't going to increase our cap space - at least until 2010 free agency opens.

Euros (1): Ricky Rubio - Let me take a minute to remind people of how the Collective Bargaining Agreement works here. Since Rubio was a first round pick, he carries a cap hold until the start of the season which is equivalent to the rookie scale salary for the current year's #5 pick. Even if Rubio states that he won't come over next season, which is very likely, we will still carry that cap hold. Let me also note that 1st round picks generally get a 20% signing bonus to their rookie scale, so it would add $562,440.

Nikola Pekovic - As a second round pick, Pekovic does not carry a cap hold, and he will only count against our cap if he comes over and signs a contract. You'll note that I have not included him in our cap hold calculations, but if he comes over, which could be likely, we'll need to find money for him. I should also mention that if a team wants to use their cap space, they need to renounce all their exceptions (... to the salary cap), like the MLE, so paying Pekovic is an important issue to keep in mind.

Draft Picks (3). MIN pick. No one knows where we'll land in the lottery, and there could be big differences

1 - $4,152,900
2 - $3,715,700
3 - $3,336,800
4 - $3,008,400
5 - $2,724,300

We currently have the #2 spot before the lottery, and that looks unlikely to change. The expected value for the #2 spot, according to lottery odds, is almost exactly equal to the #3 pick, so I used that salary in the projection. Obviously, winning the lottery would happily cost us an additional $816,100 in cap space.

CHA pick (currently #15) $1,328,400. Likely Range #15-19 - $1,398,200- $1,144,900 ... ($0 if #12 or higher). The Bobcats are the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference right now, two games in front of MIL. Both teams upgraded at the deadline (and CHI slipped), but if the Bobcats come in ninth, they will likely fall within their top 12 protection, and the pick would be deferred to next year -- and save us cap space

UTA pick (currently #25) $933,500. Likely Range #20-28 - $1,099,100- $836,300 ... ($0 if #15 or higher). Since the Jazz decided not to trade Carlos Boozer, they will likely be one of the better teams in the play-offs. However, they lost Ronnie Brewer while several of their peers traded to add talent, so they could slip. Note though that picks in the 20's have only small differences in salary, so their final record won't alter our cap space figure significantly.

As I mentioned before, teams generally give their rookies a 20% increase over the rookie scale, so if we give out contracts too early, it can reduce our amount of cap space.

Minimum Roster Hold (1): The NBA requires every team to carry 12 players on its active roster. They assign a minimum salary cap hold for anything under 12, to prevent teams from artificially boosting their cap space with shortened rosters. Its important to mention that the number of roster holds we'd need will vary depending on our actions. For example, if we traded the UTA pick for a future pick, we would not save the full value of the pick, because we'd reduce our roster size, and need to add a second roster hold.

2010-11 NBA Salary Cap Estimate. This figure can't be calculated until the bean-counters add up all the money at the end of the season. Kevin Arnovitz just used $53.6 mil in a True Hoop article, that's close to what wyn's got too ($53.561). It will certainly be less than the current $57.7 mil we have now, but we'll have to wait and see. I suppose there's a chance that the NBA's revenues increase over the rest of the season, and that number could be $55 .. giving every team under the cap $1 .4 mil more in cap space.

[Devilzsidewalk]

so probably 2/3 (of your 10.7 number) after Pekovic

[Worm Guts]

Kahn seems to think we'll have 12-13 million. I don't doubt your numbers shrink, I'm just curious where the discrepency is.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Kahn seems to think we'll have 12-13 million. I don't doubt your numbers shrink, I'm just curious where the descrepency is.

He doesn't realize his split personality signed Hollins to 3 mil a year

[shrink]

Since Pekovic is probably coming over, the next question would be -- How do we clear more cap space? Here's a list:

1. Late Season Trade. Many people believe that once the Trade Deadline passes, a team can't trade again for the rest of the NBA season. That's not quite true. They can't trade for the rest of "their" NBA season. As Kahn demonstrated with the Mike Miller/Randy Foye trade, rarely we can see these late season maneuverings.

However, this won't save us much cap space. Expiring contracts can't be traded after the deadline, so we'd need to deal with a player who was guaranteed 2010-11 salary. The only way to move real money would be to deal with the two teams under the 2009-10 cap, and OKC ($2.5 mil) and MEM ($0.2 mil) don't match up or provide real savings. Perhaps a Jefferson trade could save some money within the 125% + $100,000 range, or a partially guaranteed deal could be acquired, but there are very few of those still around. A trade probably isn't going to help much.

2. Waive Ryan Gomes. I already factored that in. It would be a shame, because Gomes is a decent player and on a good contract.

3. Pekovic stays in Europe. Its unlikely, but I factored this in already. As a second rounder, he carries no cap hold. He could cost $4-5 mil of our space if he comes over.

4. Rubio stays in Europe. This is already factored in, but I wanted to be thorough. If he comes over, we'd lose a slight bit more cap space. His cap hold is based on 100% of the rookie scale, but we'd pay him 120% if he was here, so it would add $562,440.

5. PICKS -- this has the largest variation, so I'll try to break them up.

5a. Lottery - we're the #2 seed now, but we could finish as low as #5. A drop from #2 to #5 would add $1.77 mil. My estimate is based around a pick between #2 and #3. Obviously, winning the lottery would happily cost us an additional $0.9 mil cap space.

5b. Utah or Charlotte picks are protected. CHA 2010: Top 12 protected. UTA 2010: Top 15 protected.

5c. Trade it for a future pick. I could certainly see MIN do this (or combine picks to trade up), since they may not want to add three rookies to such a young team. Keep in mind that trading a pick doesn't save the full amount listed above -- it adds an open roster spot, which would also add another $450,000 cap hold

6. NBA Salary Cap Number Comes in higher. This figure can't be calculated until the bean-counters add up all the money at the end of the season. I've used an estimate of $54 mil, but I suppose there's a chance that the NBA's revenues increase over the rest of the season, and that number could be $56 .. giving every team under the cap $2 mil more in cap space.


Overall, there's not a lot of optimism to be had here for making a major increase in our cap space. With Pekovic probably coming over, the chances are very good that we won't have enough money to offer a max deal.

[shrink]

so probably 2/3 (of your 10.7 number) after Pekovic

I think that's extremely likely.

Kahn seems to think we'll have 12-13 million. I don't doubt your numbers shrink, I'm just curious where the discrepency is.

My guess is Rubio's cap hold, or not accounting for minimum roster holds.

[prefuse73]

so are we saying that it would have been better to cash in all our expirings now and go for say AI2 and Dalembert.

What kind of player can we sign for less than max money. Will that be, for lack of a better word, gay territory. I assume our goal will be to find two impact wing players via the draft and free agency. Hopefully Darko works out.

Darko - Jefferson - Hollins
Jefferson - Love
Gay - Turner
Turner - Brewer - Ellington
Flynn - Sessions

[Worm Guts]

I would hope Kahn's smart enough to know how to calculate cap space. I'd be incredibly disappointed if this board knows the cap better than he does. Like fire him on the spot disappointed.

[Krapinsky]

I don't think it's quite so bleak.

Two things that I think can likely happen --

1. We don't have to buy out Gomes. We can trade him to a team with raw cap space. This saves us $1M.

2. We can sign Pekovic after a major free agent acquisition has been signed, thus using the the MLE.

Here we would have $11.7M in cap space using Shrink's number. If we trade the Utah pick for a future pick, then that puts us near $12.5M.

[Worm Guts]

2. We can sign Pekovic after a major free agent acquisition has been signed, thus using the the MLE.

.

You have to renounce the MLE to sign a free agent using cap space. Although we could possibly use the cap space via trade, then use the MLE, if that's legal.

[PeeDee]

I thought you didn't get a MLE if you had capspace...

[Devilzsidewalk]

I thought you didn't get a MLE if you had capspace...

you get both if you do a fingers crossed double psyche

[shrink]

1. We don't have to buy out Gomes. We can trade him to a team with raw cap space. This saves us $1M.

Well, we can't do it before the July 1, because no team has enough cap space.

This summer during free agency? Maybe, but I'm not optimistic, and I think teams will look elsewhere with their raw cap space. or charge a premium to a team trying to add to their own cap space.

[Krapinsky]

2. We can sign Pekovic after a major free agent acquisition has been signed, thus using the the MLE.

.

You have to renounce the MLE to sign a free agent using cap space. Although we could possibly use the cap space via trade, then use the MLE, if that's legal.

I didn't realize that. In other words that means we couldn't use the MLE for the entire cap year even if later moves brought us to the cap?

Then I think perhaps it is bleak and I think Kahn may have messed up by not using our expiring contracts when we had a chance. That's a lot less flexibility than I thought.

An Al Jefferson trade might be mandatory then. His impact does not justify him taking 1/4 of our available cap space. IMO, that's a negative contract for a team currently faced with the limitation of the salary cap. Without the ability to sign a free agent at least as good as Gay, in my opinion, pretty much means we would need a rookie to have a Brandon Roy like impact next year or the year after. That seems highly unlikely, with the exception of Wall or Tuner (40% chance). And if that's the case I don't see enough talent on the roster to get us into the playoffs in the next two years.

[Krapinsky]

Ah man this is really depressing.... Just not what i need to hear right now in the middle of another losing streak. The Twins season can't start soon enough.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Ah man this is really depressing.... Just not what i need to hear right now in the middle of another losing streak. The Twins season can't start soon enough.

you mean that team that plays in a financially rigged league?

[Biff Cooper]

1. We don't have to buy out Gomes. We can trade him to a team with raw cap space. This saves us $1M.

Well, we can't do it before the July 1, because no team has enough cap space.

This summer during free agency? Maybe, but I'm not optimistic, and I think teams will look elsewhere with their raw cap space. or charge a premium to a team trying to add to their own cap space.

It looks like there are about 6 teams that might have TPEs large enough to possibly take on Gomes prior to 6/30 (CHA, Den, LAC, Utah, Orl, NOH). Does the 25%+100K rule apply for matching salaries to TPEs?

[Krapinsky]

Ah man this is really depressing.... Just not what i need to hear right now in the middle of another losing streak. The Twins season can't start soon enough.

you mean that team that plays in a financially rigged league?

As opposed to a league with a rigged lottery system and referees that fix games?

[Devilzsidewalk]

Ah man this is really depressing.... Just not what i need to hear right now in the middle of another losing streak. The Twins season can't start soon enough.

you mean that team that plays in a financially rigged league?

As opposed to a league with a rigged lottery system and referees that fix games?

for the record there was only one ref that fixes game, the rest are just wildly incompetent

[Krapinsky]

Nah uh. Prove it.