DOESN'T IT SEEM TOO QUIET ON OUR FRONT?

[3pt_chucker]

Portland wants expiring contracts, so unless we recruit a 4th team, any deal for Herro coming to Brooklyn would mean Spencer leaving. Dinwiddie is better than Tyler right now, and I want us to be good this season. Plus, MIA expects any team taking Herro to flip more than a 1st to POR. I would rather keep the 1st, and the better player.

Herro will of course be better than Spencer in a few years, he's much younger and has a bright future. But by then, Cam Thomas might be that dude. It makes little sense to me to worsen our present roster AND block our potential in the future. If we didn't already have a quality lead guard prospect, or if the guard were trading for were unquestionably better than Dinwiddie right now, then I would feel differently.

portland can get all expirings. something like this i think makes sense for all parties involved. the philly pin gets spun as a good pick but it's most likely a bottom half pick and if philly is really bad then it probably never conveys.

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

[Netaman]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

this is literally almost the exact frame work of what shams has been reporting for portland/miami for 2 weeks - as he's also reported nobody else in the league is engaging with portland because everyone knows lillard wants miami. i believe his latest was that portland prefers jacquez to jovic.

Read on Twitter

no team has been reported more as the 3rd team taking herro, which doesn't mean it's going to happen but your 5% is literally nothing more than a guess. miami beats and brooklyn beats have connected them to herro since the day lillard request went public.

not sure how you see the philly pick as anything more than moderately lotto protected. if philly is worse than .500 play in team because embiid is gone they can easily manipulate that pick into 2 seconds and 2m.

Read on Twitter

there is an argument (that i would make) that the philly 2027 pick is probably the worst future pick the nets own. the phoenix picks are all obviously unprotected, same with dallas, and their own picks have swaps with houston but no protections and id say it's still a lot more like houston continues to stink than philly. i dont think houston is better than philly in 2025, 2027 who knows but the philly pick is protected. If nets and houston both stink in 2027 that can be a top 8 pick. philly pick cant.

philly pick is also the only first they own that may not even end up a first at all.

[ChuckS]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

I admit to having felt the same about giving up DFS and Royce. And it seemed like a great thing at the time, but I realized we dumped everyone else who could have been used for salary match purposes early in the off season, so we have no one left except them, to trade, except Spencer, who I will get to next, or our untouchables and Simmons, who may or may not be.

I'm still not sure how much losing them will ultimately hurt, if at all, since they are low volume scorers, and we added Mikal and Cam J, for like defense. But I believe we have lost too much offense and currently need more points to be competitive. Our defense should still be good, particularly if we get a "real" big eventually.

Using Dinwiddie in trade for Herro, though, is another matter. It seems counter intuitive if we need more shooting to give up a nearly equal offensive player, and expect more than breaking even, and at $7 mil more. Last year (after the loss of KD and Kai) Spencer had the team's 2d (to Bridges) best own versus opponent +5.2, and second (to Nic) on/off court +3.5. He averaged 2.8 points less than Herro, at nearly identical efficiency, but offset that with more assists at an ATO ratio of 3.61 to a relatively mediocre 1.75.. In their last playoffs Tyler (in 22) averaged 12.6 points, versus his in season 20.7, shooting 40.9/22.9%. (He was hurt in 2023). Spencer (in 23) averaged the same as in the regular season (with us), 16.5, at 43/39%.

My point is not that Tyler is bad, or even that Spencer is better. I think they are both good. It just doesn't make sense to me, if we need more offense, to give up an almost equal amount in trade, when we could have both, and accomplish our objective.

[3pt_chucker]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

this is literally almost the exact frame work of what shams has been reporting for portland/miami for 2 weeks - as he's also reported nobody else in the league is engaging with portland because everyone knows lillard wants miami. i believe his latest was that portland prefers jacquez to jovic.

Read on Twitter

no team has been reported more as the 3rd team taking herro, which doesn't mean it's going to happen but your 5% is literally nothing more than a guess. miami beats and brooklyn beats have connected them to herro since the day lillard request went public.

not sure how you see the philly pick as anything more than moderately lotto protected. if philly is worse than .500 play in team because embiid is gone they can easily manipulate that pick into 2 seconds and 2m.

Read on Twitter

there is an argument (that i would make) that the philly 2027 pick is probably the worst future pick the nets own. the phoenix picks are all obviously unprotected, same with dallas, and their own picks have swaps with houston but no protections and id say it's still a lot more like houston continues to stink than philly. i dont think houston is better than philly in 2025, 2027 who knows but the philly pick is protected. If nets and houston both stink in 2027 that can be a top 8 pick. philly pick cant.

philly pick is also the only first they own that may not even end up a first at all.

Obviously 5% is a guess but I'm using that as a proxy to say it's a slim to no chance it happens. In that framework, the Nets will be sending a pick + dinwiddie's expiring. No reason for Nets to go hard to help Miami. The initial buzz for Herro to Nets was when it could have still been looped into Joe + Patty expiring which would've made it easier to acquire Herro for peanuts. However, all that buzz from reliable/non-Miami sources has (rightfully IMO) died down.

Also you are missing that DFS can at bare minimum fetch a FRP (won't be a juicy pick(s) but still a good assets). Royce could also be flipped for something good as well at the deadline. So essentially you are advocating giving up 3 assets for Herro, who I as I said before (and many agree), just doesn't move the needle that much and his contract just does not fit for what the books look like rn.

Yes, the Philly pick has low odds of actually conveying because it hinges on Embiid staying on Philly or staying healthy. However, as of right now it has good value because it's far enough into the future and there is 2 seasons to bet on Philly being bad/average for the pick to convey.

The overall point here is the Nets have loftier short-medium term goals than Tyler Herro. They are not going to give multiple assets for a player who (a) does not make them a fringe contender/2nd round team and (b) is on a big contract that will complicate moving him again down the line. Hanging onto DFS and Royce makes sense in the short term and will be moved for the right price to add to treasure trove of picks/young players.

[3pt_chucker]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

I admit to having felt the same about giving up DFS and Royce. And it seemed like a great thing at the time, but I realized we dumped everyone else who could have been used for salary match purposes early in the off season, so we have no one left except them, to trade, except Spencer, who I will get to next, or our untouchables and Simmons, who may or may not be.

I'm still not sure how much losing them will ultimately hurt, if at all, since they are low volume scorers, and we added Mycal and Cam J, for like defense. But I believe we have lost too much offense and currently need more points to be competitive. Our defense should still be good, particularly if we get a "real" big eventually.

Using Dinwiddie in trade for Herro, though, is another matter. It seems counter intuitive if we need more shooting to give up a nearly equal offensive player, and expect more than breaking even, and at $7 mil more. Last year (after the loss of KD and Kai) Spencer had the team's 2d (to Bridges) best own versus opponent +5.2, and second (to Nic) on/off court +3.5. He averaged 2.8 points less than Herro, at nearly identical efficiency, but offset that with more assists at an ATO ratio of 3.61 to a relatively mediocre 1.75.. In their last playoffs Tyler (in 22) averaged 12.6 points, versus his in season 20.7, shooting 40.9/22.9%. (He was hurt in 2023). Spencer (in 23) averaged the same as in the regular season, 16.5, at 43/39%.

My point is not that Tyler is bad, or even that Spencer is better. I think they are both good. It just doesn't make sense to me, if we need more offense, to give up an almost equal amount in trade, when we could have both, and accomplish our objective.

Agree with most things here. Nets are trying and doing a good job so far of managing present and future assets while staying competitive and attractive to upper echelon players. Nets have a skeleton/template of a top team. They just missing a true #1 player who is also in the right age range (mid-late 20s). Having numerous assets and tradeable contracts, allows them to compete evenly with OKC, Jazz, Spurs and Knicks for any superstar of the right profile for the next 2-3 seasons.

Some things leading off what you said:

1. DFS is going to be valuable for the rest of his contract unless something devastating happens. Just look at the landscape of what solid starting role players are getting paid right now: $18-25M. DFS is making ~14M for the next 3 yrs. What a bargain. There will always be contending or playoff teams who will be interested in him. His contract also makes it so much easier to salary match with the new cba. His value is probably at its peak (1 good FRP or 2-3 low end FRPs) right now, so it's highly likely he gets moved and with the number of big wings/forwards Marks has signed, the Nets are hoping one of them pan out so it's easier to stomach trading him.

2. Royce is in the same boat as DFS. His contract is a bargain and would be a great fit on a contender/playoff team. His expiring contract would normally reduce his value but in this case it's so cheap, the Nets can just keep/extend him and retain his value. He's prob worth a low end 1st. Given that, he might be more valuable to be kept long term on a ~10-12M per (3yrs?) contract.

3. I agree with the Din vs Herro so won't rehash them as talents. I would say though I hope he gets moved. With him being a FA, I reallyyy don't want the Nets to re-sign him because he could fetch in the $18-22M per range, especially with the trash FA next offseason. He's 30, so I see him wanting 1 last bag (FVV got how much again???). So, I'm in the boat of trading him for something decent (pick or young player) and not a bloated contract. Unfortunately, there prob won't be too many suitors since the league is flush with good guards and 20M might be hard to match in season, so there might be no trade. This is really a tough position for the Nets.

[Netaman]

they shopped dfs and royce at the draft aggressively and got back nothing. im not sure they can actually get a decent pick for either of them. Royce has 1 less year of control than he did last year when the nets got him for a first, DFS maybe have had better value at the trade deadline but then he shot poorly and teams that needed 3 and D wings went out and signed Strus, Grant Williams, Bruce Brown, in FA.

im not saying they need to give up on either player but if either had any value they would have been moved already this offseason.

[3pt_chucker]

they shopped dfs and royce at the draft aggressively and got back nothing. im not sure they can actually get a decent pick for either of them. Royce has 1 less year of control than he did last year when the nets got him for a first, DFS maybe have had better value at the trade deadline but then he shot poorly and teams that needed 3 and D wings went out and signed Strus, Grant Williams, Bruce Brown, in FA.

im not saying they need to give up on either player but if either had any value they would have been moved already this offseason.

As I mentioned DFS's value should be relatively the same over the life of his contract. Teams get desperate due to injuries or trying to add missing piece and make trades before/at the deadline all the time. No need to trade him for less his value. Same goes for Royce.

The reports were that the Nets were asking for a crazy return for both, so it's not like they had no suitors.

[Rastas]

Hold pat on this POR/MIA deal till the deadline - hope another team does not jump in and let Miami struggle through to the deadline with no bench depth.
Spencer/DFS/Royce only get traded now or deadline for an upgrade and one of DFS and Royce are needed to stay for wing depth.
If the team is not performing so great its ok this year as were not contenders and only need to finish ahead of Houston.
I'm looking forward to a fun season and hope JV does not lock out a bunch of players I'm interested in seeing progress.

[JKiddy]

I understand this perspective.

I am fine giving up the PHI pick if we get something of value in return. But, I do not think it makes sense to give up 3 assets for Herro.

If we give up 2 I think it would be fine. I think it would be in our best interest to keep two of Dinwiddie/DFS/RO if we give up this 1st. If we do not give up the 1st and give up two of them that is fine as well.

DFS has more value than assumed. Watch what he can do this year when he is healthy and acclimated to this team. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THIS MAN.

[Netaman]

there's a reason they shopped DFS + Royce hard, and it's because they just don't fit well with this current roster. Each of them have been 30 mpg full time starters for the last 4 seasons or more on playoff teams. It's hard to see a path to starting for either of them, or a path to getting 30 mpg.

there are 240 minutes in a game.

bridges, cam j, dinwiddie, claxton are getting 125 minutes.

if simmons is healthy, that's 155-160.

now you have 80-85 minutes left for royce, dfs, dennis smith jr, walker, cam t, bazley.

specifically re walker and dsj, im not sure how they got those guys to sign here for the minimum unless they committed to giving them playing time. you would think those guys wouldn't sign anywhere they couldn't get 20+ minutes. and with where the organization is now it seems like a smarter move to try to develop early/mid-20's lotto picks who still have upside vs 30 year old role players.

depth is depth, maybe they think they can adapt into more limited roles or that they will be able to get picks for Royce/DFS at the deadline because everyone needs extra wings, but as of now they haven't done much to rebalance the roster from the muddled rotation post-deadline.

[vincecarter4pres]

I understand this perspective.

I am fine giving up the PHI pick if we get something of value in return. But, I do not think it makes sense to give up 3 assets for Herro.

If we give up 2 I think it would be fine. I think it would be in our best interest to keep two of Dinwiddie/DFS/RO if we give up this 1st. If we do not give up the 1st and give up two of them that is fine as well.

DFS has more value than assumed. Watch what he can do this year when he is healthy and acclimated to this team. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THIS MAN.

As Netaman has touched on, Idk that we should call Royce or DFS true assets. Could we get a late first for each of them? Absolutely. But as 3pt has also alluded to, their asking price was reportedly delusional. That doesn’t make them valuable, that makes the FO… delusional.

[vincecarter4pres]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

I admit to having felt the same about giving up DFS and Royce. And it seemed like a great thing at the time, but I realized we dumped everyone else who could have been used for salary match purposes early in the off season, so we have no one left except them, to trade, except Spencer, who I will get to next, or our untouchables and Simmons, who may or may not be.

I'm still not sure how much losing them will ultimately hurt, if at all, since they are low volume scorers, and we added Mikal and Cam J, for like defense. But I believe we have lost too much offense and currently need more points to be competitive. Our defense should still be good, particularly if we get a "real" big eventually.

Using Dinwiddie in trade for Herro, though, is another matter. It seems counter intuitive if we need more shooting to give up a nearly equal offensive player, and expect more than breaking even, and at $7 mil more. Last year (after the loss of KD and Kai) Spencer had the team's 2d (to Bridges) best own versus opponent +5.2, and second (to Nic) on/off court +3.5. He averaged 2.8 points less than Herro, at nearly identical efficiency, but offset that with more assists at an ATO ratio of 3.61 to a relatively mediocre 1.75.. In their last playoffs Tyler (in 22) averaged 12.6 points, versus his in season 20.7, shooting 40.9/22.9%. (He was hurt in 2023). Spencer (in 23) averaged the same as in the regular season (with us), 16.5, at 43/39%.

My point is not that Tyler is bad, or even that Spencer is better. I think they are both good. It just doesn't make sense to me, if we need more offense, to give up an almost equal amount in trade, when we could have both, and accomplish our objective.

As far as I’m following you here, you’re comparing Spence’s efficiency post trade to BK to Herro’s past season?

If so, they surely aren’t nearly identical efficiency. Dinwiddie was wretchedly inefficient post trade.

Also, raw +/- is a nearly useless stat tbh.

[Netaman]

I understand this perspective.

I am fine giving up the PHI pick if we get something of value in return. But, I do not think it makes sense to give up 3 assets for Herro.

If we give up 2 I think it would be fine. I think it would be in our best interest to keep two of Dinwiddie/DFS/RO if we give up this 1st. If we do not give up the 1st and give up two of them that is fine as well.

DFS has more value than assumed. Watch what he can do this year when he is healthy and acclimated to this team. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THIS MAN.

As Netaman has touched on, Idk that we should call Royce or DFS true assets. Could we get a late first for each of them? Absolutely. But as 3pt has also alluded to, their asking price was reportedly delusional. That doesn’t make them valuable, that makes the FO… delusional.

im more inclined to believe the offers were just that weak compared to the FO being delusional.

for example the mavs were a team we all talked about a lot as a possible landing spot for DFS since they had that exact need and he's a known quantity to them. they got grant williams at the same price without giving up an asset. knowing how things went, wouldnt it have been crazy for them to give up one of their few FRPs they have left to deal for DFS? hard to see any deal they'd do now other than just dumping worse contracts.

pacers were another, they got bruce brown. magic signed ingles. cavs signed strus. lakers signed vincent. memphis did the smart deal.

[vincecarter4pres]

I understand this perspective.

I am fine giving up the PHI pick if we get something of value in return. But, I do not think it makes sense to give up 3 assets for Herro.

If we give up 2 I think it would be fine. I think it would be in our best interest to keep two of Dinwiddie/DFS/RO if we give up this 1st. If we do not give up the 1st and give up two of them that is fine as well.

DFS has more value than assumed. Watch what he can do this year when he is healthy and acclimated to this team. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THIS MAN.

As Netaman has touched on, Idk that we should call Royce or DFS true assets. Could we get a late first for each of them? Absolutely. But as 3pt has also alluded to, their asking price was reportedly delusional. That doesn’t make them valuable, that makes the FO… delusional.

im more inclined to believe the offers were just that weak compared to the FO being delusional.

for example the mavs were a team we all talked about a lot as a possible landing spot for DFS since they had that exact need and he's a known quantity to them. they got grant williams at the same price without giving up an asset. knowing how things went, wouldnt it have been crazy for them to give up one of their few FRPs they have left to deal for DFS? hard to see any deal they'd do now other than just dumping worse contracts.

pacers were another, they got bruce brown. magic signed ingles. cavs signed strus. lakers signed vincent. memphis did the smart deal.

I think that’s just it right? A player is only worth what he is ultimately traded for.

It’s like baseball cards on Ebay. So a bunch of sellers have a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie for sale asking $500. But they’ve been listed for months and the ones that have sold in identical condition from other sellers went for say $210. So they can keep turning down offers for a lot less than $500 saying that’s what the card is worth, but until one sells higher than $210, that is quite literally what the card is worth.

Because us as fans speculated the Mavs would give up the 10th overall for DFS, doesn’t make that his value. Because the Nets FO thought DFS was worth the 10th overall and say the 22nd, does not make it his value.

If they couldn’t find a deal with the other 28 teams in the league, guess what? He ain’t worth much of anything.

Or, if the kind of offers they were getting was the 29th overall pick and a bad contract, well that is his worth.

I don’t think DFS is worthless, but if as we’ve discussed and agreed, he needs to be moved to open up room for younger players to get burn, and because he will always underperform and continue destroying any trade value he still has when on a weaker offensive roster, they should move him for what they can get if it’s legitimately reasonable, instead of the delusions of thinking they’re getting a lottery pick for him, imho.

[Netaman]

I don’t think DFS is worthless, but if as we’ve discussed and agreed, he needs to be moved to open up room for younger players to get burn, and because he will always underperform and continue destroying any trade value he still has when on a weaker offensive roster, they should move him for what they can get if it’s legitimately reasonable, instead of the delusions of thinking they’re getting a lottery pick for him, imho.

agreed with 2 minor additions:

1. they are good insurance policies for injuries. dfs was a good insurance policy if Cam Johnson had gotten signed away. so i can understand not settling for a weak return before cam got signed. we've had a lot of seasons where starters got hurt early and had no options so having 2 starters on the bench isn't the worst thing.

2. if there's a trade out there for a younger player they like, as reported with herro, it would be foolish to assign much value to them beyond being non-negative value salary filler. if they can bring in a FRP from a 3rd team as part of the trade comp, great, if they can't like you said that's their value.

depth > future second round picks, so if the offers weren't there they didn't have much of a decision to make. i think it's more likely no teams were offering FRPs for either of them than they were holding out for a lotto pick.

[ChuckS]

Royce + DFS + 1 FRP(Philly t8 protected) = Herro, is a massive L trade for the Nets...

The only Herro trade that makes sense from a Nets perspective is Din + Lottery protected 1st = Herro.

Miami could probably do better than this (Spurs?), plus portland would want more than that, so Herro to Nets has less than <5% chance happening.

I admit to having felt the same about giving up DFS and Royce. And it seemed like a great thing at the time, but I realized we dumped everyone else who could have been used for salary match purposes early in the off season, so we have no one left except them, to trade, except Spencer, who I will get to next, or our untouchables and Simmons, who may or may not be.

I'm still not sure how much losing them will ultimately hurt, if at all, since they are low volume scorers, and we added Mikal and Cam J, for like defense. But I believe we have lost too much offense and currently need more points to be competitive. Our defense should still be good, particularly if we get a "real" big eventually.

Using Dinwiddie in trade for Herro, though, is another matter. It seems counter intuitive if we need more shooting to give up a nearly equal offensive player, and expect more than breaking even, and at $7 mil more. Last year (after the loss of KD and Kai) Spencer had the team's 2d (to Bridges) best own versus opponent +5.2, and second (to Nic) on/off court +3.5. He averaged 2.8 points less than Herro, at nearly identical efficiency, but offset that with more assists at an ATO ratio of 3.61 to a relatively mediocre 1.75.. In their last playoffs Tyler (in 22) averaged 12.6 points, versus his in season 20.7, shooting 40.9/22.9%. (He was hurt in 2023). Spencer (in 23) averaged the same as in the regular season (with us), 16.5, at 43/39%.

My point is not that Tyler is bad, or even that Spencer is better. I think they are both good. It just doesn't make sense to me, if we need more offense, to give up an almost equal amount in trade, when we could have both, and accomplish our objective.

As far as I’m following you here, you’re comparing Spence’s efficiency post trade to BK to Herro’s past season?

If so, they surely aren’t nearly identical efficiency. Dinwiddie was wretchedly inefficient post trade.

Also, raw +/- is a nearly useless stat tbh.

I apologize. It appears you were not following me. I'll try to be more precise. I thought it would be mathematically disingenuous to compare the approximate 30 game schedule, in a dysfunctional offense with 4 new starters to a full year for Tyler. So I used NBA.com because Basketball Ref separated the two team stats and I did not feel like doing the math. Because, later in the season, Spencer's playoff numbers with us were much closer to those he had with the Mavs, I believe I did the right thing.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?PlayerPosition=G

The FG% for Tyler was 43.9 and that for Spencer was 43.8. The 3pt% was 37.8 for Tyler to 36.9 for Spencer. I hope no one else thinks me devious for honestly believing that a tenth of a point, and 9 tenths of a point were negligible.

I've studied most of the advanced stat formulas and personally prefer to use actual box score numbers whenever possible. I think that the difference between the relatively static nature of baseball, which made such stats famous, compared to the infinite changes from second to second in basketball, gives mathematicians fits. I will sometimes use them, however, as a guideline when something better is not available. They are so popular, however, that I certainly understand your belief. The league is now using cameras as a source of data, which I see as a vast improvement.