Leafs 2015-16 Regular Season thread

[whysoserious]

Absolutely love the moves the Leafs have made the past few weeks. Love moving Phaneuf (even though I think he handled his time here well and wasn't the main issue) and love the small deals of getting picks for Matthias, Polak and Spalling.

[LLJ]

It's like an NHL version of the Sam Hinkie tank plan right now. At this point it really is the best plan for the Leafs to go for.

[Dr Positivity]

Tank god level

[Bankai]

Looks like the fire sale already started in Leaf land.

[whysoserious]

I'm glad Lou and the team are getting the jump on the deadline and clearing this stuff out. Reiner is a good goaltender but his swings of highs and lows is tough to predict. I sense they still may re-sign him this off-season unless one of their young goalies shows something in the last 20 games or so.

[LLJ]

I still blame Reimer in part for that Game 7 collapse, even though there was plenty of blame to go around. So I'm not sad to see him go. He's a nice guy and more consistent than Bernier but I'm not even sure the actual potential gap between Bernier and Reimer was all that big. At one time Bernier was considered to have better upside.

[Mike Hunt]

Watched the Leafs lose to Ottawa last night, but was pleased with what I saw from the youth. It's a weirdly hopeful season.

[LLJ]

Yah, the kids are competitive but still losing games. That's what you want to see for now. I have no idea how many of these kids will still be here when they're an actual good team again, but you definitely want a young team to look competitive in the pros even if they're losing.

On that note, shouldn't it be about time the Oilers got good already with all the #1 draft picks they've won? They've been tanking for so many years now. Are they only a few pieces away or are their picks simply not good enough?

[Mike Hunt]

On that note, shouldn't it be about time the Oilers got good already with all the #1 draft picks they've won? They've been tanking for so many years now. Are they only a few pieces away or are their picks simply not good enough?

Honestly, this is the first year that their young players have all played a decent chunk of the season. They've also really failed to surround their young guys with any semblance of "character" veterans who can still play. I don't think any of their high picks have been terrible. There just haven't been as many home runs as you'd hope, Yakopov is probably the biggest recent disappointment. Other than him, only Pajarvii, several years, ago was a big miss. I think Nugent-Hopkins is a bit of a disappointment due to injuries, but he's still showing enough offensive flair (0.6-0.7 PPG) to give you hope. Taylor Hall has had a couple huge seasons when healthy. Draisaitl looks well on his way. Nurse can become a decent blue liner. Obviously, McDavid will be great.

I don't think it's a lost cause. If they commit to getting a few vets who still have a pulse, especially on the blue line, they could be one of those quick turnaround teams.

When you really think about it, The Oilers have had RIDICULOUS luck in the lottery, but only moderate luck in the draft. If you look back at their first round picks, they've pretty much always picked BPA according to the general consensus (I suppose you can criticize for not making gutsier moves, but it's hard to argue with the moves given context). Let's look at them:

-McDavid was the obvious #1 in 2015.

-In 2014, they picked Draisaitl at 3 (only better option was Ekblad who went #1). Many had Bennett ranked ahead of him but so far,
Edmonton seems to have made the right move.

-In 2013, they picked Nurse at 6 who was the best D available after Jones and ranked right around there (Jones has been ok, but nothing amazing, nor has Ristolainen who was the next pick).

-In 2012, Yakopov was considered a big risk/reward guy. General consensus was that, if healthy, he would have been the clear-cut #1 (Galchenyuk was also injured that year). It was a defenseman heavy draft and they could have probably only justified taking Murray at #1 who after a few years of injuries has finally started to show a little promise. Would they be better with Murray, today? Maybe, but not by that much.

-2011 was a 4 horse race for #1 for most of the year between the top-3 guys and Couturier who ended up going #7. Couturier was seen as not offensively gifted enough for #1 (which was fair but he's definitely had a reasonably good career). Huberdeau was always the also-ran who would be ranked at #3 but experts would say "but don't be surprised if..." about him. Landeskog was the early favourite for #1 but general consensus as the draft approached was that Nugent-Hopkins just had too much playmaking ability to pass up at #1. I think that Landeskog's 2-way play, slightly better durability and PPG production being on par with RNH gives him a clear edge, but it's hard to fault a decision that most would have also made.

-2010 was the Hall/Seguin debate and while the Seguin pick looks better of late, the Hall pick looked better until last season's injury shortened season and this year's struggles. I'm not convinced this one's over. While it was always considered to be a tough decision, it's another case where the consensus agreed with Edmonton's decision.

So, in 6 drafts, I would say that they picked the consensus choice at their spot 5 times. One of them was a no doubter, the remaining 4 were all debatable. The only pick where I think they bucked the consensus a bit was Draisaitl, which seems like a good decision so far.

[Dr Positivity]

I saw a good point that what Oilers are really the worst at in the league is drafting out of the 1st round. They routinely get nothing out of 2nd/3rd/4th round.

Not that their 1st round picks are amazing either. The ROI for Hall, RNH and Yakupov is pretty bad for 3 straight #1s. It's not all their fault but some of it has to be. While he was fairly consensus #1 when a pick turns out as bad as Yakupov that falls on the team for not seeing it, especially a team where skill first winger was so the last thing they needed, that they really had to be convinced he was outright BPA to take him. RNH didn't have to go #1, he had soft hold on it IIRC in what was originally the Adam Larsson draft, who I think is now looking like the strongest asset in the top 4 (23 year old top line D in NJD, started slow but many D do compared to forwards) I think RNH is looking like he could be as weak a #1 as Erik Johnson, who possibly could have still be a star defensemen if not for golf cart accident. Hall vs Seguin they still got a good player but Seguin was the better pick of the two.

[LLJ]

Guys, Nylander may be really good! Not just a run of the mill "good" player, but maybe "top 5 of his position" good someday! He may well be the most promising Leafs prospect I've seen in my lifetime thus far (I am old enough to have seen Wendell Clark, but only after he had been in the league a few years. Never saw his rookie year).

Can't wait until Marner is ready. We're still years off, but seeing a player like Nylander who has a real "it" factor that screams out "we can build around this" is really exciting for Leafs fans, for the first time in almost 2 decades. Unfortunately, Nylander is starting to help us win games lately and we can't win too much. But it's better to have your prospects show something early on so you know you're getting the right guys, rather than eternally tanking and getting multiple "Oh, he's just OKAY" kind of players like the Oilers (McDavid is definitely going to be really good though)

[Mohanad]

Reilly is good, I wouldn't say he's a lock to be an elite true #1 defensemen. Not that he can't be, he;s just going to have to a major step to reach that level. Right now he seems projected to be a number 1 or 2 defensemen. He;s got a long way to being elite and being talked about on the level of Karlson, Subban, Doughty and few others.

Karlsson is the worst defenseman in the league defensively by a LONG shot. He's not a defenseman, he's a forward who lines up on the back end. He literally has no idea what he's doing defensively. The Norris has been an offensive defenseman award, but other guys like PK and Keith at least play defense

[Mohanad]

What qualities has Reilly displayed that makes some of you think he's going to be an elite defenseman in this league? Not saying he can't, but there's still a lot to be worked on.

It's hard to know what "qualities" a player has when you probably don't watch the team play. Anybody that watched the Leafs this season know's what Reilly brings to the club. Reilly is extremely fast, and a solid skater. He's good at driving offense, once he gets some better players to play with and improves his D a little bit, he's going to be that top tier defenseman. If he had PP time before February, he's likely in the 40-45 point range and competing for the top 10 in D scoring

He struggled a bit when Dion left though. You could tell extended minutes were gassing him. Still some growing pains with Reilly's player development.

I wouldn't say he's "elite" but far better than "okay". The Leafs have a star here

I hope for Reilly's sake they acquire a legit top pairing d-man to play with and don't saddle him with guys like Hunwick. Keep in mind he's play top pairing minutes now without much help.

Also - Yes, the Leafs are are tanking, but they for the most part play a fairly competitive game.

The way they are losing is different IMO from the way Buffalo tanked.

If you look back on the season they haven't really been blown out much.

Lots of close, hard fought losses.

I honestly don't think they are 5 years away from being a playoff team.

Once better players start coming in playing that style over guys like PA or Grabner, we should have something exciting.

[Dr Positivity]

Wow, the tank is in danger. Ws minus Ls (good way to measure record independent of GP):

Edmonton: -11
Toronto: -8
Winnipeg: -7
Columbus: -6
Calgary: -5

Definitely hope they at least hold on to 2nd last

[Mohanad]

You're forgetting about Vancouver. They lost 6 straight and dropping like flies in the standings. The Canucks are outright pathetic at this point with no decent prospects to speak of either, outside of Boeser. That organization is a disaster top to bottom.

The Leafs just grabbed points in 7 out of their last 10 games ffs. This is working out well......

[Ong_dynasty]

I want to win the Matthews Sweepstakes. start sucking again...
Outside of Nylander can anyone tell me who of the young prospects are also looking good?

[bballsparkin]

^^The two Finnish players are rated highly. A top 3 pick should yield a nice player from my understanding. Also, I read Arizona would love to get their hands on home town Mathews and might try to make a rich offer to the team that wins first.

I think Edmonton and Leafs have the bottom 3 locked up and I am hoping the third team is Vancouver. The Canucks play Chicago and then have 4 games against California teams. That's 5 tough opponents. The final games should be some massive tank games against Edmonton twice and the Flames. As mentioned the Canucks are in much need of talent. They have never picked first either.

[Ong_dynasty]

^^then lets win first..

[Dr Positivity]

Happy to see Kessel playing well for PIT

[Dr Positivity]

Great night for the tank, Leafs lose to Sabres, Canucks beat Sharks