Guano wrote:j4remi wrote:snip
we're going to need your break down on this coming main event.
I honestly don't care who wins. I have a hard time separating the art from the artist and I've learned more about Masvidal than I'd care to know. I'll probably root for him because he is the "lesser of two weevils". That said, I think he gets worked in this fight. Colby's pressure and control are exceptional. And Masvidal is noted for coasting in fights giving away rounds. It's one of the reason his record is has so many losses. Masvidal is dangerous and can end a fight at any time. I just don't see it happening against Colby.
fight i'm most excited is the Barboza vs Mitchell fight great stylistic match up
I'm in a similar boat as you in not really liking the behavior of either guy in the main event. The Fiziev injury really took the wind out of my sails on this one, because I was so hyped for that match-up. But the match-ups overall aren't bad, especially that Barboza/Mitchell fight and Holland/Oliveira which should be guaranteed fireworks.
- For Colby vs Masvidal, the interesting part will be finding out how far they've come since being tight. Every clip of them training that I've seen has been Colby sorta rag dolling Masvidal, but these are from ages ago and both guys have grown since then. On paper, they're kinda reciprocals. Colby's at his best when he's throwing volume and constantly pushing forward. Masvidal is at peak when he's baiting opponents into counters. Masvidal has the added benefit of training for a similar style to Colby with his multiple fights with Usman. But Colby has enough familiarity with Jorge that I wouldn't stress over it too much.
Basically, I'm with you. I think Colby's pressure and wrestling will work similar to how Usman's did. But Colby doesn't have the KO power that Usman does, so that at least keeps this fight in the territory of being interesting. I lean Covington, but I think the odds are too wide from Vegas.
- The Mitchell vs Barboza fight seems like it plays into Bryce Mitchell's strengths. Barboza is pretty bad when he's moving backwards and he's not great when he's forced into grappling matches. He doesn't have the footwork to keep guys from backing him up to the cage. But hasn't exactly fought elite strikers and Barboza is even a notch above the elite guys. Barboza also seems to seriously dislike Bryce Mitchell which I've never seen before. He's a nice guy.
I think we'll know who wins this fight within the first couple of minutes. If Mitchell can take down Barboza early, the whole complexion changes and Bryce will own it. If Mitchell can't get his hands on Barboza, then he'll get pieced up badly.
- Holland vs Oliveira is where I think the FOTN falls. Oliveira will try to get the fight to the ground, but he's not at the level of other wrestlers who have dominated Holland. I edge Holland in striking and Oliveira in power, but I think Cowboy's gotta get the fight to the ground. What makes this especially interesting is that Oliveira will fight dirty if he's losing...so even if Holland avoids grappling early, when things get dicey Oliveira might test him in other ways.
- RDA vs Moicano is a mismatch, but he's quietly submitted three of his last four opponents. Those guys were wrestlers though. I think RDA is at least as good a grappler and also the superior striker.
- Hardy vs Spivak belongs on the early prelims of a free card...or in a weaker league. Hardy isn't good, Spivak isn't good...but Hardy's contract and NFL fame means that he gets way too many chances to keep failing. I think they chose Spivak because he's beatable even for a Hardy. Spivak's a vet though, he beat Tai Tuivasa when the big man was still raw. So if Hardy is still half-assing then he'll lose again.
The Prelims got some hype too- Jalen Turner is a really good prospect. Huge for his weight class and only sporting losses to true UFC talent. He's young and developing, with a lot of experience for his age. His opponent is Jamie Mularkey, fresh off upsetting two promising striking prospects ironically. So this is an interesting match-up with two guys trying to launch into a higher level.
- Yan Xionan just lost to Carla Esparza in a number one contender eliminator. She's legit enough to get that close to a title fight with Rose, and has KO power in a division where it's rare...but so does her opponent. Marina Rodriguez is fresh off putting the beats on Mackenzie Dern and Michelle Waterson back to back. These women are both killer strikers, so this could be another FOTN candidate.
Lastly some names on the early prelims:While the main and co-main are disappointing, at least this card has some depth. Tim Elliott is 2-4 in his last 6 fights, but he only fought monsters. He's still a quality fighter with a TUF title. His opponent has a nice record, but I'm not familiar.
Then the other fight which honestly should switch with Hardy vs Spivak and be on the PPV is Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov is a very good prospect, Khabib's cousin. He's really talented, but young and green. Kelleher only loses to guys that are pushing into the rankings and has a MASSIVE experience advantage. He's fought contenders and former champs. He's exactly the type to upset a prospect that gets caught sleeping. Kelleher's a perfect test for Umar!
So we got hella fights worth looking at. But I'm not sure about the PPV price tag when both main events seem light to me.