Do you think Franz Wagner should get a Max or not?

[eyriq]

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[drsd]

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Smith not in the top10: ouch

[JBSouthpaw]

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Pretty big disparity between Franz and #2.

[eyriq]

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Pretty big disparity between Franz and #2.

Franz is leading his team to wins.

[RichCollab]

Be careful what you ask for.

[Knightro]

Franz is a fascinating case between analytics and the eye test.

Analytics say he's a superstar. An efficient, two-way player who doesn't make many mistakes. And the Magic have played tremendously better any time he's on the floor and significantly worse any time he's off the floor.

Eye test says he can't make threes, doesn't really do anything in the midrange and struggles against better competition, specifically defenses that are capable of being very physical with him.

So which side is more correct?

[basketballRob]

Franz is a fascinating case between analytics and the eye test.

Analytics say he's a superstar. An efficient, two-way player who doesn't make many mistakes. And the Magic have played tremendously better any time he's on the floor and significantly worse any time he's off the floor.

Eye test says he can't make threes, doesn't really do anything in the midrange and struggles against better competition, specifically defenses that are capable of being very physical with him.

So which side is more correct?

I saw a guy who couldn't make shots this season and at many times resembled Markelle on offense.

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[Knightro]

I saw a guy who couldn't make shots this season and at many times resembled Markelle on offense.

Oh Rob.

I get that you were not a big fan of Franz's 3PT regression, none of us were, but to suggest he "many times resembled Markelle on offense" just feels wildly over the top.

[eyriq]

Three point regression is really the only soft spot on his resume, alongside concerns about being a front-runner.

Considering his success in the world cup I'm not really that concerned about him being a front-runner.

Considering he shot 35 & 36 percent from three the last two seasons, I'm not really concerned about his three point shooting.

Even with those concerns, he projects as a top 50 player and a top 10 small forward. If he addresses those concerns? He's top 20, an all-star, and a top 4 small forward.

[The-Stallion70]

Franz is a fascinating case between analytics and the eye test.

Analytics say he's a superstar. An efficient, two-way player who doesn't make many mistakes. And the Magic have played tremendously better any time he's on the floor and significantly worse any time he's off the floor.

Eye test says he can't make threes, doesn't really do anything in the midrange and struggles against better competition, specifically defenses that are capable of being very physical with him.

So which side is more correct?

There are a ton of variables here that could explain one thing or another but Franz is a big wing who mainly scores by driving to the basket. When he doesn't drive to the basket he usually takes a three(still more efficient at 28% than most midrange shots overall). This can make his ts% look better.

However, Franz relies extremely heavily on his ability to get to the basket. The Cavs executed the gameplan of taking away his drive at all costs so I believe this is mainly why he struggled once he was forced to take other shots. He will simply pass the ball if he doesn't get all the way to the basket.

Paolo by comparison doesn't get to the basket as easily as Franz because of footspeed or whatever but the shots he does take instead, midrange or whatever, are harder for the defense to take away so it is easier for him to get his 22ppg on 54ts%.

[The-Stallion70]

he projects as a top 50 player and a top 10 small forward.

He is probably within these thresholds right now rather than projecting to be.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-top-100-player-rankings-nikola-jokic-stephen-curry-giannis-eye-no-1-lebron-james-falls-out-of-top-10/

CBS Had him above Paolo at 47 at the beginning of the season, so based on last year's stats.

[basketballRob]

I saw a guy who couldn't make shots this season and at many times resembled Markelle on offense.

Oh Rob.

I get that you were not a big fan of Franz's 3PT regression, none of us were, but to suggest he "many times resembled Markelle on offense" just feels wildly over the top.

I was watching something different. He would, at times, pass on the outside shot and drive into a wall of defenders. It was painful to watch.

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[Residual-Heat]

Franz is a fascinating case between analytics and the eye test.

Analytics say he's a superstar. An efficient, two-way player who doesn't make many mistakes. And the Magic have played tremendously better any time he's on the floor and significantly worse any time he's off the floor.

Eye test says he can't make threes, doesn't really do anything in the midrange and struggles against better competition, specifically defenses that are capable of being very physical with him.

So which side is more correct?

For me, the eye test still puts him near the top if not the best in his draft.

He's not a superstar for sure, but really not that far from being an all-star either. I think if he can just get back to his normal 3pt% and the Magic are a top 4 seed, he'll likely make the all-star team. Add a midrange game maybe in a few years and he has potential to become a 25-5-5 guy. we only saw this for a couple of NBA games (and when he plays for the German national team), but he needs to bring this back:

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[Knightro]

It can't be overstated how much some of the advanced stats absolutely love Franz.

RAPTOR (which no longer exists through 538, but was updated manually by Neil Payne on substack here: https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings) had Franz as the 22nd best player in the NBA.

LEBRON had him as the 25th best player in the NBA.

EPM had him as the 32nd best player in the NBA.

[pepe1991]

Jamal Murray is neither allstar nor superstar yet he is awesome player. This "boxing" players in categories is usless and pointless.

Franz is our at times best player.

[basketballRob]

Jamal Murray is neither allstar nor superstar yet he is awesome player. This "boxing" players in categories is usless and pointless.

Franz is our at times best player.

So was Jonathan isaac.

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[Knightro]

Jamal Murray is neither allstar nor superstar yet he is awesome player. This "boxing" players in categories is usless and pointless.

Franz is our at times best player.

So was Jonathan isaac.

I mean... yes?

Jonathan Isaac absolutely was the Magic's most impactful player on a per minute basis in many games this past season.

Obviously his overall impact and ceiling is capped due to the fact he was only able to play 58 games and 16 MPG, but he was insanely productive in those 58 games and 16 minutes per game.

[MagicFan101]

Franz is a fascinating case between analytics and the eye test.

Analytics say he's a superstar. An efficient, two-way player who doesn't make many mistakes. And the Magic have played tremendously better any time he's on the floor and significantly worse any time he's off the floor.

Eye test says he can't make threes, doesn't really do anything in the midrange and struggles against better competition, specifically defenses that are capable of being very physical with him.

So which side is more correct?

Why not both?

I think the eye test is a better indicator of the reality of today whereas the advanced analytics more heavily weight key factors which matter on a longer term trajectory. The features in these analytics models might be applied on point in time, game wise or annual data but they are created and aggregated over long running periods.

It is a good sign for future development that the advanced stats favor Franz. Let’s hope he keeps up the fight and continues to work hard.

[eyriq]

he projects as a top 50 player and a top 10 small forward.

He is probably within these thresholds right now rather than projecting to be.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-top-100-player-rankings-nikola-jokic-stephen-curry-giannis-eye-no-1-lebron-james-falls-out-of-top-10/

CBS Had him above Paolo at 47 at the beginning of the season, so based on last year's stats.

Hmmm, true, lol he's already there. It's wild he's so good

[RichCollab]

Franz eye test is good to great on defense and good on offense if you don’t focus on the small percentage of times he struggled.