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Optimus_Steel wrote:Monk is really a no brainer.
BadMofoPimp wrote:Reached for a 2nd round talent in Nicholson.
Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:basketballRob wrote:Simmons, Windhorst, Russilo, and more have said Franz isn't a max player.
Ok so what’s the number is it 35-40 when the full max is 43-45? I don’t think he gets a dollar under 35. There are enough bad teams that need a forward that would give him full max next year.
Franz's max is 25% of the 2025-2026 cap. That is projected to be right around 155M.
So a full max for Franz would start at 38.75M.
Assuming it's a 5-year deal with standard 8% raises...
25-26 (age 24 season): 38.75M on a 155.1M cap - 25% of cap
26-27 (age 25 season): 41.85M on 170.6M cap - 24.5% of cap
27-28 (age 26 season): 45.19M on 187.6M cap - 24.0% of cap
28-29 (age 27 season): 48.80M on 206.3M cap - 23.6% of cap
29-30 (age 28 season): 52.70M on 226.9M cap - 23.2% of cap
Total: 5 years, 227.29M - 45.45 AAV
His contract wouldn't be a flat 25% of the salary cap all five years because the cap is projected to increase by more on a year-to-year basis than Franz's contract would increase (10% v. 8%).
Interesting options on there, nice workdoct3r dr3 wrote:Going into free agency, there seems to be agreement that the Magic need accurate, volume 3-point shooting from the guard position, without compromising their defensive identity. (Essentially, an upgrade at the Gary Harris position). I've compiled below some of the top 3-point shooting guards in free agency and sorted them by DBPM (an estimated measure of defensive impact).
Some players that stand out:
Gary Harris - At least according to DBPM, he is actually the best defender of the bunch by a good deal. The Magic would be wise not to sacrifice too much in the way of perimeter defense in the pursuit of upgrading the volume 3-point shooting, as this was a major part of the team's identity.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - A two-time NBA Champion, this 31-year-old veteran has the next-best DBPM of the bunch. His 3-point volume and accuracy are a bit better than Gary Harris'.
Buddy Hield - Seems to have the best combination of volume (6.8 3PA/G) and accuracy (.436 3P%), with above-average DBPM for this group.
Luke Kennard - A pretty stunning .450 3P%, on fairly high volume.
Klay Thompson - Four-time NBA Champion with the greatest pure shooting reputation of the bunch. Shot the highest volume, but not the greatest percentage, and DBPM was poor this year.
...
To my mind, it's not the end of the world if the Magic miss out on Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk. There's still a chance to upgrade at guard with someone like KCP, Buddy Hield, or Luke Kennard, and maybe even have enough room to swing for a big like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein.
$26-28m to start.bigdogdylan5 wrote:Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:Ok so what’s the number is it 35-40 when the full max is 43-45? I don’t think he gets a dollar under 35. There are enough bad teams that need a forward that would give him full max next year.
Franz's max is 25% of the 2025-2026 cap. That is projected to be right around 155M.
So a full max for Franz would start at 38.75M.
Assuming it's a 5-year deal with standard 8% raises...
25-26 (age 24 season): 38.75M on a 155.1M cap - 25% of cap
26-27 (age 25 season): 41.85M on 170.6M cap - 24.5% of cap
27-28 (age 26 season): 45.19M on 187.6M cap - 24.0% of cap
28-29 (age 27 season): 48.80M on 206.3M cap - 23.6% of cap
29-30 (age 28 season): 52.70M on 226.9M cap - 23.2% of cap
Total: 5 years, 227.29M - 45.45 AAV
His contract wouldn't be a flat 25% of the salary cap all five years because the cap is projected to increase by more on a year-to-year basis than Franz's contract would increase (10% v. 8%).
Sorry poorly worded I meant to ask Rob if it’s not a max what would you be comfortable giving Franz? If the max is 45.5 with the estimated cap and that is too much what should we offer?
eyriq wrote:Weltman mentioned that our top 3 scorers are 22 and younger. Mentioned the impact of internal development as 34 -> 47. Mentioned not sacrificing our DNA.
To me, that reads as a vote of confidence in Paolo, Franz, and Suggs.
I 100% expect rotation turnover. However, I do not expect us to bring in someone that disrupts who our top three scorers are. The implications of this is that we say no to George, Monk, Murray, Trae, Russell, etc.
Which leaves Claxton, Hartenstein, Tyus, Klay, etc.
Bergmaniac wrote:basketballRob wrote:Simmons, Windhorst, Russilo, and more have said Franz isn't a max player.
How many of these "experts" have actually watched Franz outside of the few times he plays against their favourite team?
doct3r dr3 wrote:Going into free agency, there seems to be agreement that the Magic need accurate, volume 3-point shooting from the guard position, without compromising their defensive identity. (Essentially, an upgrade at the Gary Harris position). I've compiled below some of the top 3-point shooting guards in free agency and sorted them by DBPM (an estimated measure of defensive impact).
To my mind, it's not the end of the world if the Magic miss out on Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk. There's still a chance to upgrade at guard with someone like KCP, Buddy Hield, or Luke Kennard, and maybe even have enough room to swing for a big like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein.
eyriq wrote:Weltman mentioned that our top 3 scorers are 22 and younger. Mentioned the impact of internal development as 34 -> 47. Mentioned not sacrificing our DNA.
To me, that reads as a vote of confidence in Paolo, Franz, and Suggs.
I 100% expect rotation turnover. However, I do not expect us to bring in someone that disrupts who our top three scorers are. The implications of this is that we say no to George, Monk, Murray, Trae, Russell, etc.
Which leaves Claxton, Hartenstein, Tyus, Klay, etc.
eyriq wrote:Weltman mentioned that our top 3 scorers are 22 and younger. Mentioned the impact of internal development as 34 -> 47. Mentioned not sacrificing our DNA.
To me, that reads as a vote of confidence in Paolo, Franz, and Suggs.
I 100% expect rotation turnover. However, I do not expect us to bring in someone that disrupts who our top three scorers are. The implications of this is that we say no to George, Monk, Murray, Trae, Russell, etc.
Which leaves Claxton, Hartenstein, Tyus, Klay, etc.
Knightro wrote:doct3r dr3 wrote:Spoiler:
Several of the options on this list - specifically George, Russell, Monk and Jones - provide far more than they shooting and defense you've turned this list into.
The case could certainly be made that the Magic would benefit much more from a player who can do something off the dribble than trying to upgrade Gary with another "3&D" type of player.
BadMofoPimp wrote:Reached for a 2nd round talent in Nicholson.
I suspect the vision is to be contenders by the '27 post-season. I think the timing of this allows them to set player development as their key '25 objective. The 34 -> 47 driven by player development reinforces the belief in organic growth. Moves focused on making life easier for Paolo, Franz, and Suggs likely take priority over moves that increase the top line wins. I also think that an objective for '25 is to get AB and Jett into the rotation. To achieve this you avoid blockers.Black and Blue wrote:eyriq wrote:Weltman mentioned that our top 3 scorers are 22 and younger. Mentioned the impact of internal development as 34 -> 47. Mentioned not sacrificing our DNA.
To me, that reads as a vote of confidence in Paolo, Franz, and Suggs.
I 100% expect rotation turnover. However, I do not expect us to bring in someone that disrupts who our top three scorers are. The implications of this is that we say no to George, Monk, Murray, Trae, Russell, etc.
Which leaves Claxton, Hartenstein, Tyus, Klay, etc.
Interesting take. You very well may be right. The 'sacrificing our DNA' statement is a bit nebulous, because only he and the front office know for sure what they prioritize above all else. I took it to mean their identity as a defensive-minded team, full of young players (especially the 3 he kept referencing), with a large amount of flexible contracts that can easily be traded/voided. For the reasons I outlined and more, I think they will take into account the following attributes more than the fans expect:
-Defensive ability
-Age
-Ability to sign/trade for shorter term deals
-Personality to fit in with group
-Players who have the ability to become an alpha in a pinch
I do actually think they will leave no stone unturned as far as vetting players for trade/signing, but if a players falls outside of 2 or more of those attributes they won't go out of their way to bog down the cap with them.
On a side note, I think our rookies from last year are real wildcards this offseason. I could see the team clearing time for both of them just as much as I could see both players being jettisoned as part of a trade. I don't particularly feel strongly either way, especially if it helps the team long term. The team has to huddle with the G-League and developmental coaches and have some serious discussions of how far each are from contributing and the ramifications of spending too much time while Paolo is showing he is ready to compete now.
doct3r dr3 wrote:Going into free agency, there seems to be agreement that the Magic need accurate, volume 3-point shooting from the guard position, without compromising their defensive identity. (Essentially, an upgrade at the Gary Harris position). I've compiled below some of the top 3-point shooting guards in free agency and sorted them by DBPM (an estimated measure of defensive impact).
Creation and playmaker is just as important as 3pt percentage. This focus on 3pt% isn’t enough. Team can impact the defensive stats a great deal.
Some players that stand out:
Gary Harris - At least according to DBPM, he is actually the best defender of the bunch by a good deal. The Magic would be wise not to sacrifice too much in the way of perimeter defense in the pursuit of upgrading the volume 3-point shooting, as this was a major part of the team's identity.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - A two-time NBA Champion, this 31-year-old veteran has the next-best DBPM of the bunch. His 3-point volume and accuracy are a bit better than Gary Harris'.
Buddy Hield - Seems to have the best combination of volume (6.8 3PA/G) and accuracy (.436 3P%), with above-average DBPM for this group.
Luke Kennard - A pretty stunning .450 3P%, on fairly high volume.
Klay Thompson - Four-time NBA Champion with the greatest pure shooting reputation of the bunch. Shot the highest volume, but not the greatest percentage, and DBPM was poor this year.
...
To my mind, it's not the end of the world if the Magic miss out on Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk. There's still a chance to upgrade at guard with someone like KCP, Buddy Hield, or Luke Kennard, and maybe even have enough room to swing for a big like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein.
Knightro wrote:doct3r dr3 wrote:Going into free agency, there seems to be agreement that the Magic need accurate, volume 3-point shooting from the guard position, without compromising their defensive identity. (Essentially, an upgrade at the Gary Harris position). I've compiled below some of the top 3-point shooting guards in free agency and sorted them by DBPM (an estimated measure of defensive impact).
To my mind, it's not the end of the world if the Magic miss out on Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk. There's still a chance to upgrade at guard with someone like KCP, Buddy Hield, or Luke Kennard, and maybe even have enough room to swing for a big like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein.
Several of the options on this list - specifically George, Russell, Monk and Jones - provide far more than they shooting and defense you've turned this list into.
The case could certainly be made that the Magic would benefit much more from a player who can do something off the dribble than trying to upgrade Gary with another "3&D" type of player.
doct3r dr3 wrote:In fairness, the Magic were 30th in 3PM, whereas they were 28th in AST and 24th in TO, so as bad as the playmaking numbers were, the shooting numbers were even worse. That said, I wouldn't disagree entirely with adding playmaking, but I also think there's some logic to forcing Paolo, Suggs and Franz into that playmaking role for the sake of their development, as they did with Victor Oladipo. Adding more floor spacing should allow them to flourish as playmakers, as they'd have more space to operate, and more shooting threats to pass to.
eyriq wrote:Interesting options on there, nice workdoct3r dr3 wrote:Going into free agency, there seems to be agreement that the Magic need accurate, volume 3-point shooting from the guard position, without compromising their defensive identity. (Essentially, an upgrade at the Gary Harris position). I've compiled below some of the top 3-point shooting guards in free agency and sorted them by DBPM (an estimated measure of defensive impact).
Some players that stand out:
Gary Harris - At least according to DBPM, he is actually the best defender of the bunch by a good deal. The Magic would be wise not to sacrifice too much in the way of perimeter defense in the pursuit of upgrading the volume 3-point shooting, as this was a major part of the team's identity.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - A two-time NBA Champion, this 31-year-old veteran has the next-best DBPM of the bunch. His 3-point volume and accuracy are a bit better than Gary Harris'.
Buddy Hield - Seems to have the best combination of volume (6.8 3PA/G) and accuracy (.436 3P%), with above-average DBPM for this group.
Luke Kennard - A pretty stunning .450 3P%, on fairly high volume.
Klay Thompson - Four-time NBA Champion with the greatest pure shooting reputation of the bunch. Shot the highest volume, but not the greatest percentage, and DBPM was poor this year.
...
To my mind, it's not the end of the world if the Magic miss out on Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk. There's still a chance to upgrade at guard with someone like KCP, Buddy Hield, or Luke Kennard, and maybe even have enough room to swing for a big like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein.
