2023-2024 Regular Season Game 68: Toronto Raptors (23-44) at Orlando Magic (39-28) - 6pm

[Bensational]

Yeah, lineups have tended to do better with Goga than WCJ and there isn't much room for doubt.

I’m a big Goga fan, but I’m happy to admit there’s justifiable room for doubt. Like, right now with WCJ/Harris posting a drtg of 97.5 I think we should embrace that as we charge for the playoffs.

I do find it really interesting that Goga is a worse individual offensive player than WCJ but he helps create better offensive results. And conversely, I’m surprised that Goga’s rim protection is less defensively impactful than WCJ in lineup data.

[SOUL]

"Goga lineups are the best!"

False news. The one with AB was fine, and basically negligible to the WCJ/Fultz ones, which I am NOT advocating for whatsoever, so it's not much of an argument from me to debate those.

This shows me that the Isaac/Moe lineups are very good, driven by Isaac. And the current starting lineup is very good and there is no evidence that it would be better with a center that can't stretch the floor.

[SOUL]

I'm not trying to diminish Goga's abilities. He's a solid player and I would love to have him back, but he either needs to slot into Moe's role or WCJ's role and we would need an upgrade in the guard position.

I just think WCJ gets scapegoated for a lot. I haven't been happy with him this year at all, but there are reasons why his presence alone helps certain lineups, even if his play is wildly up and down.

[Optimus_Steel]

"Give the fans what the want" Moment

This doesn’t look good…

Read on Twitter

?s=46

They fired him for that? Wow our organization is certified ****

A day that will live on in infamy lol

[Bensational]

I'm not trying to diminish Goga's abilities. He's a solid player and I would love to have him back, but he either needs to slot into Moe's role or WCJ's role and we would need an upgrade in the guard position.

I just think WCJ gets scapegoated for a lot. I haven't been happy with him this year at all, but there are reasons why his presence alone helps certain lineups, even if his play is wildly up and down.

But, you are trying to diminish his abilities. I mean, he played in a lineup with a rookie PG and produced better results than WCJ did with the same lineup (netrtg of 9.2 vs netrtg of 1.5), and Goga/Black even outperformed Wendell with a veteran PG.

He has a comparable netrtg to our current WCJ/Harris lineup, but you excluded that from your lineup comps for some reason?

Isaac/Moe are great, but also playing against 2nd units. Neither could be relied upon to be a starter every night.

If Goga takes WCJ’s spot, the numbers say we wouldn’t need to make any other improvements and we’d either be the same or potentially better. Wendell gets more criticism than he deserves, but that doesn’t mean Goga should be criticised even more harshly to level the playing field.

[SOUL]

But, you are trying to diminish his abilities. I mean, he played in a lineup with a rookie PG and produced better results than WCJ did with the same lineup (netrtg of 9.2 vs netrtg of 1.5), and Goga/Black even outperformed Wendell with a veteran PG.

So I'm to believe that every criticism of WCJ is valid and a concern and Goga is a precious little lamb that can't have pushback when things start getting attributed to him that shouldn't be attributed to him?

People cant make wild statements like "Goga lineups have been the best" with zero data to back it up, while saying WCJ is not good for us, we have to move on, etc. If we're moving on from someone, there literally has to be ZERO doubt that the replacement is going to be better.

Come on, Ben.

He has a comparable netrtg to our current WCJ/Harris lineup, but you excluded that from your lineup comps for some reason?

Nothing is excluded, this is from Cleaning The Glass. If there are lineups out there that aren't included, then there probably wasn't enough minutes. Also I'm not sure what you mean by "he" has it. A one man lineup has comparable net ratings?

Isaac/Moe are great, but also playing against 2nd units. Neither could be relied upon to be a starter every night.

If Goga takes WCJ’s spot, the numbers say we wouldn’t need to make any other improvements and we’d either be the same or potentially better. Wendell gets more criticism than he deserves, but that doesn’t mean Goga should be criticised even more harshly to level the playing field.

If you are talking about replacing a solid center with a good contract, there has to be damn good reason to replace him. A small sample size of Goga games isn't enough for that. I'm pointing out that you can't just put Goga out there because we had a 9 game winning streak with him. He can't stretch the floor, he gets exposed on switches. Those are two big reasons why.

If people are questioning having Claxton to replace WCJ, then Goga being questioned is completely fair.

If you're saying that Isaac/Moe benefit from 2nd units more, that's fine, but wouldn't you also say that Goga benefited by catching teams by surprise for a few games because he wasn't scouted like the regular 10-11 people in our lineups?

[Bensational]

But, you are trying to diminish his abilities. I mean, he played in a lineup with a rookie PG and produced better results than WCJ did with the same lineup (netrtg of 9.2 vs netrtg of 1.5), and Goga/Black even outperformed Wendell with a veteran PG.

So I'm to believe that every criticism of WCJ is valid and a concern and Goga is a precious little lamb that can't have pushback when things start getting attributed to him that shouldn't be attributed to him?

People cant make wild statements like "Goga lineups have been the best" with zero data to back it up, while saying WCJ is not good for us, we have to move on, etc. If we're moving on from someone, there literally has to be ZERO doubt that the replacement is going to be better.

Come on, Ben.

He has a comparable netrtg to our current WCJ/Harris lineup, but you excluded that from your lineup comps for some reason?

Nothing is excluded, this is from Cleaning The Glass. If there are lineups out there that aren't included, then there probably wasn't enough minutes. Also I'm not sure what you mean by "he" has it. A one man lineup has comparable net ratings?

Isaac/Moe are great, but also playing against 2nd units. Neither could be relied upon to be a starter every night.

If Goga takes WCJ’s spot, the numbers say we wouldn’t need to make any other improvements and we’d either be the same or potentially better. Wendell gets more criticism than he deserves, but that doesn’t mean Goga should be criticised even more harshly to level the playing field.

If you are talking about replacing a solid center with a good contract, there has to be damn good reason to replace him. A small sample size of Goga games isn't enough for that. I'm pointing out that you can't just put Goga out there because we had a 9 game winning streak with him. He can't stretch the floor, he gets exposed on switches. Those are two big reasons why.

If people are questioning having Claxton to replace WCJ, then Goga being questioned is completely fair.

If you're saying that Isaac/Moe benefit from 2nd units more, that's fine, but wouldn't you also say that Goga benefited by catching teams by surprise for a few games because he wasn't scouted like the regular 10-11 people in our lineups?

Here is the lineup data straight from NBA.com

I mean, if you want to say that Black is a horrible rookie who handicaps the team, why is it that Goga was able to win with him? If WCJ is this versatile wunderkind then why are his lineup numbers worse next to Black? Why are his lineup numbers worse with a veteran PG instead? Why do lineups have worse offensive numbers with him in compared to Goga? Let’s not pretend WCJ is giving us zero reason to doubt him. As much as Goga has to earn the starting spot, WCJ has to earn keeping it.

There is a substantial double standard at play in the way you’re evaluating the two. Chalking the win streak up to luck and poor opponent scouting is just dismissive. If Harris doesn’t come back next season then WCJ loses his best lineup, and Goga looks better with the rest of our young core.

[eyriq]

Yeah, lineups have tended to do better with Goga than WCJ and there isn't much room for doubt.

I’m a big Goga fan, but I’m happy to admit there’s justifiable room for doubt. Like, right now with WCJ/Harris posting a drtg of 97.5 I think we should embrace that as we charge for the playoffs.

I do find it really interesting that Goga is a worse individual offensive player than WCJ but he helps create better offensive results. And conversely, I’m surprised that Goga’s rim protection is less defensively impactful than WCJ in lineup data.

I think Goga comfortably clears. Here are ten lineups they've both played in. 7 of these played better with Goga vs WCJ.

A. Black, F. Wagner, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 9.2, with WCJ 1.5
A. Black, F. Wagner, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -3.7, with WCJ -36.8
F. Wagner, G. Harris, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 19.1, with WCJ 19.6
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 41.4, with WCJ -3.5
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -2.2, with WCJ -29.7
F. Wagner, J. Suggs, M. Fultz, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -36.2, with WCJ 7.2
A. Black, C. Anthony, F. Wagner, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -35, with WCJ 9.3
A. Black, J. Ingles, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 28.5, with WCJ -63.6
J. Ingles, J. Suggs, M. Fultz, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 32.1, with WCJ -32.5
C. Anthony, C. Houstan, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 41.2, with WCJ 27.1

If you look at the entire set of lineups they shared, put them in a bag and put in more of the lineups that have seen more minutes, and pulled lineups from that bag a bunch of times and took the average difference in net rating you'd see that Goga makes a lineup better by 13.8 points, and that with 95% confidence you can say his lift over WCJ ranges from 27.5 - -0.2. So at best WCJ is even and most likely we get a boost from playing Goga. That is a major advantage per this analysis.

[SOUL]

Read on Twitter

Here is the lineup data straight from NBA.com

I mean, if you want to say that Black is a horrible rookie who handicaps the team, why is it that Goga was able to win with him? If WCJ is this versatile wunderkind then why are his lineup numbers worse next to Black? Why are his lineup numbers worse with a veteran PG instead? Why do lineups have worse offensive numbers with him in compared to Goga? Let’s not pretend WCJ is giving us zero reason to doubt him. As much as Goga has to earn the starting spot, WCJ has to earn keeping it.

There is a substantial double standard at play in the way you’re evaluating the two. Chalking the win streak up to luck and poor opponent scouting is just dismissive. If Harris doesn’t come back next season then WCJ loses his best lineup, and Goga looks better with the rest of our young core.

Sorry, I'm still misunderstanding, what was left out? I already said the WCJ/Fultz vs AB/Goga one is negligible, and that if I was arguing that Fultz/WCJ is better and something I want to see in the future, you'd definitely have a point... but it's not what I want to see, so if those two lineups are similar in net ratings, it's not enough for me to argue.

The times I have argued it was because people were saying it was a better lineup and it literally had the same/slightly worse rating of WCJ/Fultz. I think the final game of Fultz/WCJ together they played awful so it pushed them below the AB/Goga one, but they were basically the same minutes/rating and therefore another gross manipulation of overreactions spurred by the 9 game winning streak.

Also, what rating is there that is equivalent in minutes and rating from Goga that I'm missing? I don't think that exists? If you're saying the one with AB, it's in the graphic I showed.

Quite frankly, the numbers alone to me are irrelevant, but if people are making numbers based arguments to start Goga, I will have to push back with numbers based data that also shows WCJ has lineups just as good if not better. I'm already on record saying I'd like Isaac to be our future C.

I'm looking at functionality more than anything. If you feel comfortable fielding a center that can only finish plays and can't stretch the floor, a SF shooting sub-30% from three, a #1 option that is still below league average in TS%, AB who hasn't shown to create his own shot off the dribble, and Suggs.. it's going to be tough sledding to expect us to ever be realistic contenders because of that offense. If you tell me where the improvements happen, then maybe it'll make more sense in my head.

It's fun to say "Literally everybody on our team will improve", but it's not realistic either. Suggs took a big step forward, Franz took a step back with his threes. Harris struggled for half of the year and then found his footing. WCJ's three pointers look better, but seems weaker in other areas, Fultz turned into a pumpkin but Isaac is showing signs of offense now, etc.

[RookieStar]

This doesn’t look good…

Read on Twitter

?s=46

They fired him for that? Wow our organization is certified ****

A day that will live on in infamy lol

What??? Is this true??? Lol

Wow have PC...

[eyriq]

They fired him for that? Wow our organization is certified ****

A day that will live on in infamy lol

What??? Is this true??? Lol

Wow have PC...

I actually don't think its true. I heard the job posting was listed 3 days ago.

[basketballRob]

I prefer a center that can dunk.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

Not Jokic then

I can make a few exceptions.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[SOUL]

Also, what it boils down to, the argument of Goga vs WCJ is entirely based on who you intend to play with them. Their advanced stats are actually similar, with the same exact win shares (3.5) and Goga being way higher in DBPM while WCJ is higher in OBPM. One has 50 more blocked shots (Goga) and the other has 50 more threes (WCJ).

It's amazing how similar of an impact they have while being basically inverse players.

If we bring in a Simons sort of guy to the team, or specific PGs that thrive with rim runners/finishers, Goga is better. WCJ just has more flexible options he can work with, especially if we're trying to get Franz/Paolo working inside.

[eyriq]

Posted this in the wrong thread cause I'm a noob

Here's a question. Why doesn't Goga start?

Lineup analysis suggests Goga makes the team better. Goga's advanced stats are better across the board. Goga's play-by-play stats are better.

Goga is great at protecting the paint and offensive rebounding, two team pillars.


BUT... WCJ is paid more and on a controllable contract

I think, regardless of how often they are injured or if the team plays better without them the coaches have decided that the rotation established in training camp is the rotation and they'll reevaluate during the next training camp. Black and Goga never really had a real shot at making the rotation.

[basketballRob]

Also, what it boils down to, the argument of Goga vs WCJ is entirely based on who you intend to play with them. Their advanced stats are actually similar, with the same exact win shares (3.5) and Goga being way higher in DBPM while WCJ is higher in OBPM. One has 50 more blocked shots (Goga) and the other has 50 more threes (WCJ).

It's amazing how similar of an impact they have while being basically inverse players.

If we bring in a Simons sort of guy to the team, or specific PGs that thrive with rim runners/finishers, Goga is better. WCJ just has more flexible options he can work with, especially if we're trying to get Franz/Paolo working inside.

I think Paolo works better with a center in the dunker's spot.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

Bold (obvious) prediction is that WCJ, Fultz, and Harris are gonski after this off-season.

[RookieStar]

Also, what it boils down to, the argument of Goga vs WCJ is entirely based on who you intend to play with them. Their advanced stats are actually similar, with the same exact win shares (3.5) and Goga being way higher in DBPM while WCJ is higher in OBPM. One has 50 more blocked shots (Goga) and the other has 50 more threes (WCJ).

It's amazing how similar of an impact they have while being basically inverse players.

If we bring in a Simons sort of guy to the team, or specific PGs that thrive with rim runners/finishers, Goga is better. WCJ just has more flexible options he can work with, especially if we're trying to get Franz/Paolo working inside.

I think Paolo works better with a center in the dunker's spot.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

THe way PB gets the ball and he pounds/drives it through the paint suggest that he needs less defenders there. That kinda means he needs a C that spaces the floor aka drag the opposing C that threatens to meet him at the rim away from it.

[RookieStar]

A day that will live on in infamy lol

What??? Is this true??? Lol

Wow have PC...

I actually don't think its true. I heard the job posting was listed 3 days ago.

Oh... alright then. Could be a F U before leaving? Lol just joking.

[Bensational]

Also, what it boils down to, the argument of Goga vs WCJ is entirely based on who you intend to play with them. Their advanced stats are actually similar, with the same exact win shares (3.5) and Goga being way higher in DBPM while WCJ is higher in OBPM. One has 50 more blocked shots (Goga) and the other has 50 more threes (WCJ).

It's amazing how similar of an impact they have while being basically inverse players.

If we bring in a Simons sort of guy to the team, or specific PGs that thrive with rim runners/finishers, Goga is better. WCJ just has more flexible options he can work with, especially if we're trying to get Franz/Paolo working inside.

I think this is closer to getting to the core than parsing lineup data. But to answer your question on the lineup you were leaving out, it was the comp of Paolo/Franz/Harris/Suggs playing with either WCJ or Goga. Both lineups have a netrtg of 19+, which is exceptional either way. I was saying previously that it’s surprising that Goga, the rim protector, has an inverse effect on that lineup and they score more, while WCJ as a versatile scorer leads the better defensive lineup. Both bring a 19 point spread either way.

I'm looking at functionality more than anything. If you feel comfortable fielding a center that can only finish plays and can't stretch the floor, a SF shooting sub-30% from three, a #1 option that is still below league average in TS%, AB who hasn't shown to create his own shot off the dribble, and Suggs.. it's going to be tough sledding to expect us to ever be realistic contenders because of that offense. If you tell me where the improvements happen, then maybe it'll make more sense in my head.

This is where you get a bit too reductive for me. Why would we think the team is capped? Are people actually worried that Franz is a sub 30% shooter? Will Paolo never improve his TS%? Suggs has already reinvented himself from a sub 30% shooter to 40%+ shooter in 2 seasons, so it’s worth leaving room open for Black to do the same - especially since he’s already improved in that area between college and the pros.

For me, if Black can study Ingles and learn to bring his playmaking to games, whilst improving as a shooter and remaining a high-end defender, we’ll get a huge boost. Paolo’s game will refine in time, especially his passing and playmaking. Franz will continue to improve, I’m not sure why we’d start doubting him now. Suggs has emerged as a legit #3 option. And Goga will give us a rim rolling connective piece. Maybe those names aren’t sexy enough for people, but for me they’re good enough to put W’s on the board whilst developing.

[Bensational]

Yeah, lineups have tended to do better with Goga than WCJ and there isn't much room for doubt.

I’m a big Goga fan, but I’m happy to admit there’s justifiable room for doubt. Like, right now with WCJ/Harris posting a drtg of 97.5 I think we should embrace that as we charge for the playoffs.

I do find it really interesting that Goga is a worse individual offensive player than WCJ but he helps create better offensive results. And conversely, I’m surprised that Goga’s rim protection is less defensively impactful than WCJ in lineup data.

I think Goga comfortably clears. Here are ten lineups they've both played in. 7 of these played better with Goga vs WCJ.

A. Black, F. Wagner, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 9.2, with WCJ 1.5
A. Black, F. Wagner, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -3.7, with WCJ -36.8
F. Wagner, G. Harris, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 19.1, with WCJ 19.6
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 41.4, with WCJ -3.5
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -2.2, with WCJ -29.7
F. Wagner, J. Suggs, M. Fultz, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -36.2, with WCJ 7.2
A. Black, C. Anthony, F. Wagner, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga -35, with WCJ 9.3
A. Black, J. Ingles, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 28.5, with WCJ -63.6
J. Ingles, J. Suggs, M. Fultz, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 32.1, with WCJ -32.5
C. Anthony, C. Houstan, G. Harris, P. Banchero | Net Rating with Goga 41.2, with WCJ 27.1

If you look at the entire set of lineups they shared, put them in a bag and put in more of the lineups that have seen more minutes, and pulled lineups from that bag a bunch of times and took the average difference in net rating you'd see that Goga makes a lineup better by 13.8 points, and that with 95% confidence you can say his lift over WCJ ranges from 27.5 - -0.2. So at best WCJ is even and most likely we get a boost from playing Goga. That is a major advantage per this analysis.

Nice breakdown. This is what I was seeing, but I was too lazy to copy it all out on my phone.

I do think that for the rest of this season it’s worth is sticking with what’s working well right now in WCJ + Harris. Next season? I think there will be some preseason battles for roles.