Orlando Magic Playoff EPM

[Knightro]

I don’t think Isaac is particularly tradable.

Teams won’t give up good value because of his injury history, so you’d almost for sure being getting somebody who won’t impact the team as much as Isaac will even if he’s limited to like 20 MPG next year.

I say you just ride it out one more year and see how healthy if he can stay. If he’s just able to play 55 games and 15 MPG then you just move on or resign him to a lot less.

[Bensational]

Ingles: −2.5 Offensive EPM, −1.1 Defensive EPM, −3.5 Total EPM
Cole: −4.3 Offensive EPM, +0.4 Defensive EPM, −3.9 Total EPM

these two stick out to me the most. Ingles was brought in to score and somewhat run a 2nd unit. Cole was given an extension on the fact that he could be a bench microwave. Neither had any positives in the playoffs and honestly, both could easily be replaced by players with more room for growth.

I love Ingles, but I don’t think he will be of any more benefit than playing some youth next season. I hope they keep him on the coaching staff or something though as I really like his presence and the team seem to like him.

Cole is tricky, as his influence on culture and chemistry might make him hard to extract. I know a lot of fans hate factoring that in but management seem to regard it pretty significantly at this stage. But I agree that they’d have to be disappointed with his output as the season progressed and his minutes shrank significantly. But I imagine the FO also give weight to him being part of one of the league’s top 2nd units.

I think Black takes Ingles’ minutes and Jett and Cole battle for guard minutes with the hot hand getting lead.

[JoshuaPotter]

JI gets more passes from this fan base than any other player in history aside from maybe Fultz.

I agree. Let’s cut him now and save that 17 million.

Why not trade him?

He plays the same exact position as our major cornerstone. He can only be on the floor for 8min stretches and at most 16mpg. Is Orlando getting the most value out of him now?

People like the idea of Isaac more than what he actually provides relative to his trade value.

Adding to what you say. The challenge is, like with all values of anyone not in our big three. It, well...floats.

It was probably highest at the end of the season, little bit lower after the playoffs, normalize around free agency, will be higher probably after the 1st 10 games of the season where stats are inflated. And so on.

Whether or not he is tradable I think at this point really does depend on the deal. If you think the deal is good enough you take it. If you don't. You don't. I don't like bringing up player contracts because 140+- million cap and contracts for the top players ballooning has made me not access value as good as I used to numbers wise.

Funny enough, you can erase all I just said. If there are any suitors, they have to say "nah" the moment he misses more then 2 games. So if the goal is to trade him you likely need to strike while the iron is hot or don't do it at all and use that to access his value. Even if he plays 82 games next season, I have NO IDEA where his contract value would land.

[purpleswordfish]

The core three in the positive isn't shocking as they all had decent efficiency and played solid defense. The blowout wins at home probably help pad those numbers a bit.

As for the players in red, some are expected like WCJ. WCJ puts up a nice box score but is pretty average overall. Players like that usually regress a bit in the playoffs and it makes sense. Isaac is a bit of a surprise as I thought he'd be passable on offense and have a higher defensive number. But, he just didn't make the impact in the playoffs that he did in the regular season on the defensive end. I'm not ready for the Magic to give up on him yet, though. I've been critical of the Magic giving him that contract in the past, but he slotted well into a bench role as a defensive stopper. That's probably what he should have been all along, honestly. I expect his next contract will reflect that.

Cole Anthony had an awful series shooting the ball and performed better than expected on defense. His year was up and down, especially at the start of the season. He's another player that I don't think the Magic should give up on just yet. He's a good guard off the bench and could still grow a bit in that role.

Personally, I think the only rotation players on the roster that 100% shouldn't be coming back are Gary Harris and Fultz. Harris is showing signs of regression and is 29 years old. I can't imagine things will be better for him next season and he clocked in at 0.3 VORP for the year. Fultz hasn't grown at all, has struggled with health and was at 0.1 VORP. Probably time to move on from those players and see if an upgrade is out there in free agency or via the draft.

[MagicMatic]

Non negotiable, shouldn’t be on the team whatsoever :
Gary Harris and Markelle Fultz should be gone 100%. Not even worthy of discussion. If the FO bring either of them back it’s a joke. Two worst playoff EPM's on this list. Gone next season.

Players that should be moved, declined, or expired :
Ingles and Okeke. Chuma you could argue belongs in the group above this one with Harris and Fultz. The only thing saving him from that group is his position, but he’s also expiring. Ingles is absolutely cooked. His playmaking was good in the second unit, but his defense is nowhere to be seen. On some level I’d rather see Houstan or Jett get those minutes considering the Magic’s weaknesses. Goga also goes on this list because he’s an expiring contract and literally doesn’t see the court unless there’s an injury. He will cost too much to retain as a third option backup big. Too bad.

Test the market but ultimately will keep :
Isaac and Cole. Is there a team that offers the FO a very good player in return for Isaac? Is it ideal to have your highest paid player playing the same exact position as your best player? No. Is Orlando getting the most out of Isaac on the roster? Probably not. Doubt they move him anyway. Cole dropped off a Cliff mid season this year. Maybe he bounces back after an offseason of training and going back to not splitting minutes in ridiculous lineups that never made sense. He’s also a culture locker room guy so moving him probably isn’t ideal right now.

Trade for an upgrade anywhere :
Wendell Carter is the most frustrating player to watch on this roster. Some players are inconsistent game to game. Carter is inconsistent play to play. He makes some of the worst decisions and mistakes sometimes that barely offset the positives. I originally thought he was going to be better next to Paolo but boy was I wrong. He simply doesn’t protect the rim. He lacks defensive awareness. He gives up WAY too many offensive rebounds because he’s parked on the perimeter 70% of the time on offense. He struggles finishing under the rim. He doesn’t fit. If I’m the FO I’m moving him yesterday for any back court upgrade or even another Center. Orlando could even use their first for a better fit at Center and resign Goga and it would make more sense.

Too young. Likely not being moved :
Jett and AB are just not likely being moved by Orlando. They aren’t the type of organization to do that unless there is some huge splashy blockbuster deal that Weltman would never make. Houstan kind of fits in this category too to a much lesser extent.

Retain :
Mo Wagner. Not much else needs to be said.

Forget about it :
Paolo, Franz, Suggs. Off the table.

[The Real Dalic]

The based move is to not be too critical of any of the three guys who were net positives and part of our young core. This was their first playoffs, which we all said was needed for this group for the experience alone. What do you guys think that experience entails? Sunshine and roses and a finals appearance?

Banchero had massive amounts of turnovers, Franz struggled badly in a few games including a game 7, Suggs had shooting stinkers on the road. Guess what? Guys like Doncic, Embiid, Paul George, etc also struggled in their first round. A lot of things happen in a 4-7 game sample size.

Right now it just seems like a pissing match between fans who tend to be more critical of one player more than others during the season. Happened all year with some people harping on Suggs more, some harping on Franz more, some harping on Paolo more.

This is why I don't go on here as often. It's just people complaining every game and hating on players for no reason just to be proven right. It gets grating after hearing all the crying every game.

[JoshuaPotter]

JI gets more passes from this fan base than any other player in history aside from maybe Fultz.

Grant Hill would like a word...

[eyriq]

Non negotiable, shouldn’t be on the team whatsoever :
Gary Harris and Markelle Fultz should be gone 100%. Not even worthy of discussion. If the FO bring either of them back it’s a joke. Two worst playoff EPM's on this list. Gone next season.

Players that should be moved, declined, or expired :
Ingles and Okeke. Chuma you could argue belongs in the group above this one with Harris and Fultz. The only thing saving him from that group is his position, but he’s also expiring. Ingles is absolutely cooked. His playmaking was good in the second unit, but his defense is nowhere to be seen. On some level I’d rather see Houstan or Jett get those minutes considering the Magic’s weaknesses. Goga also goes on this list because he’s an expiring contract and literally doesn’t see the court unless there’s an injury. He will cost too much to retain as a third option backup big. Too bad.

Test the market but ultimately will keep :
Isaac and Cole. Is there a team that offers the FO a very good player in return for Isaac? Is it ideal to have your highest paid player playing the same exact position as your best player? No. Is Orlando getting the most out of Isaac on the roster? Probably not. Doubt they move him anyway. Cole dropped off a Cliff mid season this year. Maybe he bounces back after an offseason of training and going back to not splitting minutes in ridiculous lineups that never made sense. He’s also a culture locker room guy so moving him probably isn’t ideal right now.

Trade for an upgrade anywhere :
Wendell Carter is the most frustrating player to watch on this roster. Some players are inconsistent game to game. Carter is inconsistent play to play. He makes some of the worst decisions and mistakes sometimes that barely offset the positives. I originally thought he was going to be better next to Paolo but boy was I wrong. He simply doesn’t protect the rim. He lacks defensive awareness. He gives up WAY too many offensive rebounds because he’s parked on the perimeter 70% of the time on offense. He struggles finishing under the rim. He doesn’t fit. If I’m the FO I’m moving him yesterday for any back court upgrade or even another Center. Orlando could even use their first for a better fit at Center and resign Goga and it would make more sense.

Too young. Likely not being moved :
Jett and AB are just not likely being moved by Orlando. They aren’t the type of organization to do that unless there is some huge splashy blockbuster deal that Weltman would never make. Houstan kind of fits in this category too to a much lesser extent.

Retain :
Mo Wagner. Not much else needs to be said.

Forget about it :
Paolo, Franz, Suggs. Off the table.

I love this post

[eyriq]

Do we think the JI at center experiment gets revisited next season?

[Knightro]

Do we think the JI at center experiment gets revisited next season?

Yes, for sure. Especially if his body allows him to uptick from 16 MPG to like 22-24.

I don't think it's a full time thing, but I think it works in small doses and they'll continue to use it next season.

[jezzerinho]

Do we think the JI at center experiment gets revisited next season?

Yes, for sure. Especially if his body allows him to uptick from 16 MPG to like 22-24.

I don't think it's a full time thing, but I think it works in small doses and they'll continue to use it next season.

Well, he better figure out what the center position involves in the off-season, because he didn't have a clue when he played there. Understandable of course, he was new to it.

[fendilim]

Do we think the JI at center experiment gets revisited next season?

Yes. But I don’t think it will work. Poor rebounder.

[eyriq]

The offense ran through Paolo, Franz, and Suggs at an unprecedented level in the playoffs. Considering it went seven games and the core did so well I think this cements another season with these three as the focal points in the office.

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