Do you think Franz Wagner should get a Max or not?

[Knightro]

Even without going into all the reasons why I would still view him, even without a 3-point shot, as a vastly superior longterm offensive player and hub of an offense, Paolo is viewed incredibly highly by his peers. For a small market team that matters. He is going to attract players and provide financial benefit beyond basketball to this franchise. He's already banked an All-Star selection and was Rookie of the Year. He averaged 27 PPG and piggybacked his team on the road to a Game 7 at 21.

To me, Paolo has already earned his max contract. Franz has not and had not through 2 years. His second year was setting him up for what we expected to be a Year 3 jump. Instead, it was a Year 3 stagnation at best.

If Franz had the accolades and had shown what Paolo has shown through two years as a potential face of a franchise and playoff performer, this year 3 wouldn't be an issue for me. It is one because this year was supposed to be the jump that Paolo had in year 2.

Am I correct in assuming you're not much for advanced stats?

[SOUL]

I feel like people are re-writing the reasons why young guys get maxed. Superstars get maxed because of their past play, young players get maxed because they're years away from their prime but have shown obvious talent and consistent enough play to give ownership enough confidence to pay to retain them, or at least be a tradable asset in the future. There is only one area he regressed in, and the rest he either got better in or stayed the same. His defense is very underrated.

If we could get him for less than the max, would I advocate for it? Hell yeah. But if people are saying he didn't prove he's a max player.. then you can say that for a lot of these young guys. Barnes and Cunningham and Sengun and Mobley will also have to get paid by their teams despite very specific holes in their games as well, but none of these teams want to lose young talent.

In a way, it is unfair leverage for a young player, always banking on progress, but that's the risk you take with rebuilding with young guys.

Advanced stats favor Franz as an extremely valuable player even with his decline in three point shooting. Even with a horrendous game 7 which is still just ONE playoff game.

So, again, the Magic aren't in the business of nickel and diming a player who has traded off being a 1st/2nd option when Paolo was struggling just because of a down three point year.

[SOUL]

And paying him obviously also means more pressure is on Franz to fix that shot. But some people are acting like he's 32 and regressing and has TOS.

[eyriq]

Franz is already a top ten SF as a junior. He's our win shares leader, second leading scorer, second in sweater vest points, playoff sweater vest point champion, and best defender. He's also fluent in German.

Small forwards he's better than already as a junior and their salaries:

Michael Porter Jr. $35.9M AAV
Brandon Ingram $31.6M AAV
Kris Middleton $31.0M AAV

And then consider the AAV of recent extensions.

Broski is getting paid because he's our 1b and likely a top 20 multiple time All-Star.

[basketballRob]

I think he takes a contract starting at $28m.

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[Knightro]

I think he takes a contract starting at $28m.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

There is no way on earth Franz Wagner accepts a contract extension beginning at $28M. That absolutely will not happen, and if it does his agent should be immediately launched into the sun for malpractice.

All he would have to do is play out one more season and he'll get maxed by somebody in restricted free agency.

Franz signing for a deal starting at 28M would cost him over 63 million dollars. It will not happen.

[PrimeThyme]

Am I correct in assuming you're not much for advanced stats?

Come on, Knightro. I've been posting here for almost ten years now. If you want to make an advanced metrics point regarding my post, just make it in response, and we can debate it rather than making a condescending assumption about me not valuing analytics based on my position.

Just as an aside, I've always had immense respect for the mods on this board, and still do, but have noticed similar interactions from a few since I started frequenting the boards again, and I'm not sure why things seem to be even less friendly than they were when we were winning 25 games a year, lol. There's always been some division, naturally, it can make things interesting, but I think the community aspect of this board was always partly what attracted me to it over some of the larger Magic spaces like Reddit. Some of that seems to be lost these days, at least from a few tone setters.

I've always been into contextualizing advanced stats. I understand people's feelings on Paolo and some of the questions regarding his impact and advanced metrics, but I'm confident, and the league seems to be as well, that he's on a trajectory to becoming a top 15 valued player in this league. He's probably already at the cusp of it heading into next season. Franz and Paolo are in two completely different buckets for me, so it's difficult even to make the comparison that you asked me to.

[Knightro]

Am I correct in assuming you're not much for advanced stats?

Come on, Knightro. I've been posting here for almost ten years now. If you want to make an advanced metrics point regarding my post, just make it in response, and we can debate it rather than making a condescending assumption about me not valuing analytics based on my position.

Just as an aside, I've always had immense respect for the mods on this board, and still do, but have noticed similar interactions from a few since I started frequenting the boards again, and I'm not sure why things seem to be even less friendly than they were when we were winning 25 games a year, lol. There's always been some division, naturally, it can make things interesting, but I think the community aspect of this board was always partly what attracted me to it over some of the larger Magic spaces like Reddit. Some of that seems to be lost these days, at least from a few tone setters.

I've always been into contextualizing advanced stats. I understand people's feelings on Paolo and some of the questions regarding his impact and advanced metrics, but I'm confident, and the league seems to be as well, that he's on a trajectory to becoming a top 15 valued player in this league. He's probably already at the cusp of it heading into next season. Franz and Paolo are in two completely different buckets for me, so it's difficult even to make the comparison that you asked me to.

For the record, my remark about advanced stats was less of a Paolo criticism and more of a Franz defense.

My opinion is that Franz is significantly better than a lot of people on this board, yourself included apparently, seem to think he is at this point.

[drsd]

He's also fluent in German.

Before someone says, "so what", don't forget that Jeff Weltman's boss is Alex Martins. And Mr. Martins gets a say in this, as all money decisions are ultimately Martin's and not Weltman's.

Martin will look at F-Wagner (and the "brothers") as a new revenue stream for Orlando. I am 100% certain that Martin's is tracking jersey sales of Magic gear, and related swag, in Germany. Germany is a good basketball country (yes association football/soccer is king)*. There is a lot of money for Orlando to make in the German market by resigning F-Wagner.


* = I went to a LOT of Cologne games to watch the Polish hammer-Gortat before he joined Orlando; it was great.

[pepe1991]

People are prisioners of a moment when it comes to recent playoffs, especially game 7, and lot of things aren't taken in considiration.

Cavs lost Allen ( literlly, allstar, top 10 center in nba) and it forced them to play bunch of undersized guys on Paolo full time.
Shifting on defense from Mobley on Banchero to 6'4 Okoro and fat 6'7 Niang opened game for Banchero.

It took me a while to find exect numbers, but optics about Banchero's peformances, in contrast of Franz and his changed in moment Allen got hurt.

Mobley, for a majority of the series, was lined up with Paolo Banchero, an All-Star, who proved himself as a growing weapon in this year’s playoffs but not against Mobley. Banchero was 16 of 50 from the field and 4 of 13 from 3-point range, along with nine turnovers in his matchup minutes against Mobley. Wendell Carter Jr., when Mobley had to switch over to him, especially with Allen missing the final three games of the series, Carter scored a grand total of 18 points against Evan Mobley on 8 of 23 from the field and 2 of 9 from 3-point range.

And Paolo shot naer 50% from mid range, 40% from 3 and despite all that it was still just enough for rather mediocre 54% TS.
Franz was pathetic at 3, had one of worst game 7s in recent history, and still shot 54% TS.

This idea that Paolo is now so much better and impactful than Franz, based on one lobsided matchup he had ( and kind a took adventage of ) is silly. In most games we played Franz was up there with him in terms of importance, especially on defense.

Also playmaking and passing was , in playoffs, better from Franz than Paolo.
Franz 31 assists, 9 turnovers.
Banchero 28 assists, 32 turnovers.

Yet nobody talks about Banchero's turnovers. Nobody. But people love to throw that " point forward" label onto him, in mean time Josh Hart had more assists in playoff series ( in 6 games) than Paolo in 7 , on like 20 turnovers less.

[SOUL]

They're both deserving.. don't like how it's turning into being critical of Franz and Paolo.. both have obvious things in their game they need to work on. But yeah, it wasn't a guarantee that Paolo would shoot well this series.. and if he didn't, would people say he doesn't deserve max? Well maybe, cause Magic fans are weird like that lol. Game 7 is leaving too much of a bad taste on people's minds.

[The-Stallion70]

If Cam Johnson got $108M then that is probably the best recent comparison point for Franz considering his age and position they play.

And ya Franz is probably going to get a Max then.

Their age?

Franz is 22 years old.

Cam Johnson was a 23 year old rookie and signed his extension at age 27.

You missed my point, you don't have to attack everything you see on here.

I'm saying he should get max considering they play the same position and him being 4 years younger and is a better player. $108M for Cam really helps set the market for rookie SF extensions.

[Skybox]

I feel like people are re-writing the reasons why young guys get maxed. Superstars get maxed because of their past play, young players get maxed because they're years away from their prime but have shown obvious talent and consistent enough play to give ownership enough confidence to pay to retain them, or at least be a tradable asset in the future.

Maybe I AM off in my assessment of rookie max extension vs “Max” vet…which players in recent draft classes got max rookie extensions? Perhaps it’s more common than I realized.

My thought process (perhaps incorrect about rookie extensions) is along the lines of “How can you possibly say a non-All-Star is among the realm of max contract players?”. Advanced statistics are always a consideration…but this is a business and, to me, you kind of know a max player when you see one. There’s a tremendous affect on your cap if you start throwing around big contracts…the idea that Franz is as impactful on the Magic’s success as Paolo takes a pretty serious deep dive through a narrow lens. Paolo has clearly advanced to a different level of stardom. Comparing to MPJ, for example, is a fallacy because that was a mistake…if MPJ is a max player, idk what that makes Jamal Murray (let alone Jokic). Gordon is more important to DEN’s success than MPJ.

*let me just head off the inevitable polarizing responses (or hope to)…I’m not saying Franz isn’t great, shouldn’t get paid anything, or should be put on the bus with Fultz I’m pondering whether only the very best players in the league are max players. He’s not there yet. Maybe I’m underestimating the % of players that get max deals and force their teams to fill in much of their roster with vet mins and Bol Bols.

[SOUL]

My thought process (perhaps incorrect about rookie extensions) is along the lines of “How can you possibly say a non-All-Star is among the realm of max contract players?”. Advanced statistics are always a consideration…but this is a business and, to me, you kind of know a max player when you see one. There’s a tremendous affect on your cap if you start throwing around big contracts…the idea that Franz is as impactful on the Magic’s success as Paolo takes a pretty serious deep dive through a narrow lens. Paolo has clearly advanced to a different level of stardom. Comparing to MPJ, for example, is a fallacy because that was a mistake.

For the most part, our front office does seem to value at least having flexibility in the deals they sign players to, whether front-loading it or making something team-option. If we could get Franz and Suggs at fair deals that also don't cause issues in their camps, it's a win-win.

I think realistically it'll be a near-max, like what Bane got. Not sure about total $ because of cap changes, but same percentage. Maybe a bit less even? I'm just saying if there is back and forth there, if push came to shove, I think they would max him versus letting there be a contract dispute. Franz' game isn't perfect, but if he gets back to 35-36% and gets a mid-range game.. what else could we really ask from him?

Deals are just wonky right now because of the ever rising cap. Tatum isn't the 40th best player and Brown isn't 1st in terms of salaries, but that's how they're paid. It's more related to when your extension is up rather than the skill ceiling of some of these guys.

No team is ever really getting a deal on their best two players, and if they are it's because of weird injury stuff or when they were extended, so that the cap jump of what they initially signed suddenly looks like a bargain.

Perfect example was WCJ when we first signed him, people were clowning that deal.. a year later people were saying it was one of the best center deals out there. Obviously him kinda just sucking this year made it whatever, but things change quick.

[zaymon]

People are prisioners of a moment when it comes to recent playoffs, especially game 7, and lot of things aren't taken in considiration.

Cavs lost Allen ( literlly, allstar, top 10 center in nba) and it forced them to play bunch of undersized guys on Paolo full time.
Shifting on defense from Mobley on Banchero to 6'4 Okoro and fat 6'7 Niang opened game for Banchero.

It took me a while to find exect numbers, but optics about Banchero's peformances, in contrast of Franz and his changed in moment Allen got hurt.

Mobley, for a majority of the series, was lined up with Paolo Banchero, an All-Star, who proved himself as a growing weapon in this year’s playoffs but not against Mobley. Banchero was 16 of 50 from the field and 4 of 13 from 3-point range, along with nine turnovers in his matchup minutes against Mobley. Wendell Carter Jr., when Mobley had to switch over to him, especially with Allen missing the final three games of the series, Carter scored a grand total of 18 points against Evan Mobley on 8 of 23 from the field and 2 of 9 from 3-point range.

And Paolo shot naer 50% from mid range, 40% from 3 and despite all that it was still just enough for rather mediocre 54% TS.
Franz was pathetic at 3, had one of worst game 7s in recent history, and still shot 54% TS.

This idea that Paolo is now so much better and impactful than Franz, based on one lobsided matchup he had ( and kind a took adventage of ) is silly. In most games we played Franz was up there with him in terms of importance, especially on defense.

Also playmaking and passing was , in playoffs, better from Franz than Paolo.
Franz 31 assists, 9 turnovers.
Banchero 28 assists, 32 turnovers.

Yet nobody talks about Banchero's turnovers. Nobody. But people love to throw that " point forward" label onto him, in mean time Josh Hart had more assists in playoff series ( in 6 games) than Paolo in 7 , on like 20 turnovers less.

There is a lot of recency bias. Nobody questioned Franz after game 4.
Banchero is great scorer but he is not great at organizing offense. He is also benefiting from volume becouse when you look at Cavs series, Wagner was actually more efficient in isolation which i dont think anybody even considers.
He was also MUCH better in pick and roll in the playoffs.
When you also consider his defense and slighly tougher matchups than Banchero i would say that outside 3 point shooting Franz had overall better series than Paolo. He is also the only forward you could mistake for a point forward. Banchero so far showed little to be named anything other than iso forward. I am a big fan of Banchero and his talent but he is more Karl Towns than Lebron which is not a bad thing glancing at Minnesota but we need to build a team with him accordingly with more decision makers than pure finishers.

[Skybox]

People are prisioners of a moment when it comes to recent playoffs, especially game 7, and lot of things aren't taken in considiration.

Cavs lost Allen ( literlly, allstar, top 10 center in nba) and it forced them to play bunch of undersized guys on Paolo full time.
Shifting on defense from Mobley on Banchero to 6'4 Okoro and fat 6'7 Niang opened game for Banchero.

It took me a while to find exect numbers, but optics about Banchero's peformances, in contrast of Franz and his changed in moment Allen got hurt.

Mobley, for a majority of the series, was lined up with Paolo Banchero, an All-Star, who proved himself as a growing weapon in this year’s playoffs but not against Mobley. Banchero was 16 of 50 from the field and 4 of 13 from 3-point range, along with nine turnovers in his matchup minutes against Mobley. Wendell Carter Jr., when Mobley had to switch over to him, especially with Allen missing the final three games of the series, Carter scored a grand total of 18 points against Evan Mobley on 8 of 23 from the field and 2 of 9 from 3-point range.

And Paolo shot naer 50% from mid range, 40% from 3 and despite all that it was still just enough for rather mediocre 54% TS.
Franz was pathetic at 3, had one of worst game 7s in recent history, and still shot 54% TS.

This idea that Paolo is now so much better and impactful than Franz, based on one lobsided matchup he had ( and kind a took adventage of ) is silly. In most games we played Franz was up there with him in terms of importance, especially on defense.

Also playmaking and passing was , in playoffs, better from Franz than Paolo.
Franz 31 assists, 9 turnovers.
Banchero 28 assists, 32 turnovers.

Yet nobody talks about Banchero's turnovers. Nobody. But people love to throw that " point forward" label onto him, in mean time Josh Hart had more assists in playoff series ( in 6 games) than Paolo in 7 , on like 20 turnovers less.

There is a lot of recency bias. Nobody questioned Franz after game 4.
Banchero is great scorer but he is not great at organizing offense. He is also benefiting from volume becouse when you look at Cavs series, Wagner was actually more efficient in isolation which i dont think anybody even considers.
He was also MUCH better in pick and roll in the playoffs.
When you also consider his defense and slighly tougher matchups than Banchero i would say that outside 3 point shooting Franz had overall better series than Paolo. He is also the only forward you could mistake for a point forward. Banchero so far showed little to be named anything other than iso forward. I am a big fan of Banchero and his talent but he is more Karl Towns than Lebron which is not a bad thing glancing at Minnesota but we need to build a team with him accordingly with more decision makers than pure finishers.

I don’t have stats at hand, but it felt like PB was gaining a lot of ground in game management/assists mid-year and then regressed into more sloppy (but admittedly dominant) iso scoring later in the season & playoffs. Maybe he (short-sightedly) felt like he had to go full- MJ for them to win, maybe he lost faith in his shooters not being able to shoot…whatever the reason, we saw glimpses of his best version earlier …to me, him as a triple-double threat is his best self, MVP candidate some day. If he’s just banging bodies & hoisting inefficient shots, he’s more Julius Randle than the “Point Forward” we all claim he is. Just because every possession begins with him dribbling between his legs 25 feet out doesn’t make him any kind of PG…I want him to be that kind of player and he’s shown it’s a real possibility but I felt like he drifted away from that. He’s young and fearless- it’s easy to believe he just let his youthful ferocity drag him away from his best self temporarily. He and Franz are, potentially, a revolutionary pairing IF they continue to refine their game management rather than just taking turns iso scoring.

PB, scoring 25ppg in a more efficient manner but adding 7+ apg would be a winning machine. He needs to be watching less tape of his homeboy, Jamal Crawford and more Jokic this summer.

[Knightro]

Franz Wagner had a bad year shooting the three point shot. There’s no denying that. It is something that must tick back up moving forward.

But some of y’all are acting like he’s Markelle Fultz or something.

Our *second* best guy who is 22 year old just put up a 20-5-4 season with very good defense and also managed to increase his usage while lowering his turnovers and people are suggesting he regressed because he made 0.3 fewer three pointers per game on the same volume?

Like what?

If he didn’t have already two full seasons of 36% 3PT shooting and three full seasons of 85% FT shooting, then perhaps I’d be a little concerned. But otherwise I’m not at all. Not whatsoever.

[Knightro]

If Cam Johnson got $108M then that is probably the best recent comparison point for Franz considering his age and position they play.

And ya Franz is probably going to get a Max then.

Their age?

Franz is 22 years old.

Cam Johnson was a 23 year old rookie and signed his extension at age 27.

You missed my point, you don't have to attack everything you see on here.

I'm saying he should get max considering they play the same position and him being 4 years younger and is a better player. $108M for Cam really helps set the market for rookie SF extensions.

I apologize for misunderstanding.

It just didn’t seem like Johnson was all that good of a comparison *because* of their ages.

Cam also didn’t get an extension and instead went all the way into restricted free agency.

But I get what you were saying and see where I got mixed up.

[basketballRob]

I think he takes a contract starting at $28m.

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There is no way on earth Franz Wagner accepts a contract extension beginning at $28M. That absolutely will not happen, and if it does his agent should be immediately launched into the sun for malpractice.

All he would have to do is play out one more season and he'll get maxed by somebody in restricted free agency.

Franz signing for a deal starting at 28M would cost him over 63 million dollars. It will not happen.

He should've worked on his outside shot more. I think everyone outside of Magic fans is saying Franz shouldn't get the max.

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[tiderulz]

People are prisioners of a moment when it comes to recent playoffs, especially game 7, and lot of things aren't taken in considiration.

Cavs lost Allen ( literlly, allstar, top 10 center in nba) and it forced them to play bunch of undersized guys on Paolo full time.
Shifting on defense from Mobley on Banchero to 6'4 Okoro and fat 6'7 Niang opened game for Banchero.

It took me a while to find exect numbers, but optics about Banchero's peformances, in contrast of Franz and his changed in moment Allen got hurt.

Mobley, for a majority of the series, was lined up with Paolo Banchero, an All-Star, who proved himself as a growing weapon in this year’s playoffs but not against Mobley. Banchero was 16 of 50 from the field and 4 of 13 from 3-point range, along with nine turnovers in his matchup minutes against Mobley. Wendell Carter Jr., when Mobley had to switch over to him, especially with Allen missing the final three games of the series, Carter scored a grand total of 18 points against Evan Mobley on 8 of 23 from the field and 2 of 9 from 3-point range.

And Paolo shot naer 50% from mid range, 40% from 3 and despite all that it was still just enough for rather mediocre 54% TS.
Franz was pathetic at 3, had one of worst game 7s in recent history, and still shot 54% TS.

This idea that Paolo is now so much better and impactful than Franz, based on one lobsided matchup he had ( and kind a took adventage of ) is silly. In most games we played Franz was up there with him in terms of importance, especially on defense.

Also playmaking and passing was , in playoffs, better from Franz than Paolo.
Franz 31 assists, 9 turnovers.
Banchero 28 assists, 32 turnovers.

Yet nobody talks about Banchero's turnovers. Nobody. But people love to throw that " point forward" label onto him, in mean time Josh Hart had more assists in playoff series ( in 6 games) than Paolo in 7 , on like 20 turnovers less.

not true. its brought up a lot, and brought up that he shouldnt really be playing Point Forward, and thats why we need a real point guard.