The Anthony Black Thread

[eyriq]

He's better than I expected.

He's... different than I expected him to be.

I was pretty confident he's step in defend well and even show flashes of being a great defender. He fouls a lot, but he's got quick feet to go with his big body.

But offensively it's been al ot different than I thought it would be.

He's shooting the ball way better than I expected him to shoot it, but he's not really doing anything in terms of dribbling or shot creation for himself or others right now.

For all intents and purposes, offensively he's basically just a catch-and-shoot guy only, but he's been quite good at that (albeit on low volume) particularly from the corners.

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

Yeah, his defense is ahead of schedule and his shooting is way ahead of schedule. He's inching closer to having a higher ceiling than Suggs.

[Knightro]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

[MagicMatic]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

We will see. He's usually on the toughest assignment defensively when Suggs isnt on the floor.

The other thing is that outside of guys like Paolo he looks really good for a rookie when hes sharing the court with the starters. He's much further along than Suggs was in year 1 and I consider Suggs to be a large part of the core for winning basketball games on defense.

IF he can add that dimension of playmaking/ drawing fouls consistently, along with the spot up shooting/defense, we got a VERY good starter with a high ceiling.

[JoshuaPotter]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

We will see. He's usually on the toughest assignment defensively when Suggs isnt on the floor.

The other thing is that outside of guys like Paolo he looks really good for a rookie when hes sharing the court with the starters. He's much further along than Suggs was in year 1 and I consider Suggs to be a large part of the core for winning basketball games on defense.

IF he can add that dimension of playmaking/ drawing fouls consistently, along with the spot up shooting/defense, we got a VERY good starter with a high ceiling.

I see Black often sitting next to Isaac in rooms. Makes me wonder if he is getting his defensive lessons from him. It's when my mind started to change the narrative around Isaac and that maybe he is a good mentor / veteran type. Even with his injury woes and concerns.

[JF5]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

I think for Black his playmaking/dribbling will get better over time. But it's not going to be dramatically better.

That Bruce Brown projection I made when we drafted him looks right on the money though, lol.

[basketballRob]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

I think for Black his playmaking/dribbling will get better over time. But it's not going to be dramatically better.

That Bruce Brown projection I made when we drafted him looks right on the money though, lol.

Black's handle has been good. He just isn't asked to run the point. Brown was 2.5 years older than Black whendrafted. Black will be a much better player.

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[neuraldarwinism]

still love him, looks like a batum floor which is an awesome deep playoff level starter, but I think he's going to be more than that

[eyriq]

I just want to spam this, so perfect

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[Bensational]

He seems to be playing as expected, except for the shooting. He is living up to the term coined by Weltman as him being a “connector”.

This might be a little nitpicky, but IMO Black *projects* out to be more of a connector piece than he's actually been a connector piece.

Guys who don't dribble and basically do nothing but stand in the corner and wait for a pass aren't really connector pieces.

Theoretically the passing and BBIQ and foul drawing ability he showed in college will eventually shine though, but he's really shown none of that yet.

We will see. He's usually on the toughest assignment defensively when Suggs isnt on the floor.

The other thing is that outside of guys like Paolo he looks really good for a rookie when hes sharing the court with the starters. He's much further along than Suggs was in year 1 and I consider Suggs to be a large part of the core for winning basketball games on defense.

IF he can add that dimension of playmaking/ drawing fouls consistently, along with the spot up shooting/defense, we got a VERY good starter with a high ceiling.

While Black hasn’t shown much with the starters, he has had small runs at point and playmaking here and there with the 2nd and 3rd units. The skills are still there, he could be doing more with the starters but I don’t think we want him to. We’ve already got a 2nd year Point Forward, 3rd year Point Forward and 3rd year PG out there learning the game. He’ll get his shot next season.

[Knightro]

I want to caveat what I'm about to say by recognizing that not every player develops the same way and also where a team happens to be in their competitive process absolutely plays a factor in this.

That said...

When it comes to player development, I tend to prefer "feed a young player as much as they can handle, figure out what they can't do and then pull some of it back" than "give them very little to start out and slowly increase the size of their bites" as a development method.

Anthony Black's USG this year is just 12.5%. The history of NBA rookies with usage rates that low generally speaking do not increase significantly over the course of their careers.

Andre Iguodala: 12.8% rookie, 16.9% career
Mikal Bridges: 12.2% rookie, 17.3% career (he's a 25% USG guy now, but also not doing particularly well in that role)
Justise Winslow: 12.5% rookie, 17.1% career
Boris Diaw: 11.4% rookie, 16.3% career
Dorian Finney-Smith: 11.6% rookie, 13.1% career
Jaden McDaniels: 12.8% rookie, 14.8% career
OG Anunoby: 12.4% rookie, 17.1% career
Bruce Brown: 11.5% rookie, 15.6% career
Matisse Thybulle: 11.2% rookie, 10.2% career

Jalen Suggs was a 25% USG as a rookie and the first couple of months of his 2nd year. He struggled with a lot of things, including health, but the Magic were still able to figure out some of the things he could handle and some of the things he couldn't handle. Ultimately his role adjusted downward accordingly and he's settled into a really nice 20% USG spot that we all like.

Cole Anthony was a 24% USG as a rookie and 25% USG as a 2nd year player, and then that shifted down to 21.5% for Year 3 which was the best year of his career by a lot.

Franz started out at 21.2 USG%, handled it really well, and kept getting more and more and is now 26 USG%.

I don't want this to come off like I'm knocking Black. I'm not. Several of the names on the list above were or still are extremely valuable NBA players on teams that won championships or are planning to make deep playoff runs.

I just don't think Black's ever going to be a high usage player. And that's ok! He can still make an unbelievable amount of money as a floor raising player. But since he doesn't project - at least to me - to be more than a floor raising, connector role player type, I would still be looking for a capable point guard in both the short and potentially long term while keeping Black.

[Skybox]

I want to caveat what I'm about to say by recognizing that not every player develops the same way and also where a team happens to be in their competitive process absolutely plays a factor in this.

That said...

When it comes to player development, I tend to prefer "feed a young player as much as they can handle, figure out what they can't do and then pull some of it back" than "give them very little to start out and slowly increase the size of their bites" as a development method.

Anthony Black's USG this year is just 12.5%. The history of NBA rookies with usage rates that low generally speaking do not increase significantly over the course of their careers.

Andre Iguodala: 12.8% rookie, 16.9% career
Mikal Bridges: 12.2% rookie, 17.3% career (he's a 25% USG guy now, but also not doing particularly well in that role)
Justise Winslow: 12.5% rookie, 17.1% career
Boris Diaw: 11.4% rookie, 16.3% career
Dorian Finney-Smith: 11.6% rookie, 13.1% career
Jaden McDaniels: 12.8% rookie, 14.8% career
OG Anunoby: 12.4% rookie, 17.1% career
Bruce Brown: 11.5% rookie, 15.6% career
Matisse Thybulle: 11.2% rookie, 10.2% career

Jalen Suggs was a 25% USG as a rookie and the first couple of months of his 2nd year. He struggled with a lot of things, including health, but the Magic were still able to figure out some of the things he could handle and some of the things he couldn't handle. Ultimately his role adjusted downward accordingly and he's settled into a really nice 20% USG spot that we all like.

Cole Anthony was a 24% USG as a rookie and 25% USG as a 2nd year player, and then that shifted down to 21.5% for Year 3 which was the best year of his career by a lot.

Franz started out at 21.2 USG%, handled it really well, and kept getting more and more and is now 26 USG%.

I don't want this to come off like I'm knocking Black. I'm not. Several of the names on the list above were or still are extremely valuable NBA players on teams that won championships or are planning to make deep playoff runs.

I just don't think Black's ever going to be a high usage player. And that's ok! He can still make an unbelievable amount of money as a floor raising player. But since he doesn't project - at least to me - to be more than a floor raising, connector role player type, I would still be looking for a capable point guard in both the short and potentially long term while keeping Black.

I think this is very fair analysis...I also think an important part of "feed them as much as they can handle" has to involve giving the player (especially a PG or a football QB) a simplified game plan/role to gain early success and efficiency (maybe that's what Mose has done, but I also think it's lazy to assume a guy has huge upside and simply hasn't done more ONLY because the Coach told him not to ). The NFL comparison would be short screen passes and handoffs for a young QB to pick up yards and confidence before asking them to throw long or check down multiple receivers...and then add complexity with success. Not sure this is a good comp as Mosley's offense appears to be "give it to Paolo or Franz". I really like AB and he's a very hard guy to peg - as far as ceiling and even position, but that's fun. I also love his disposition lately...he really looks like he's getting comfortable, talking a little smack, taking shots without looking around for the OK, etc. He's always scrapped defensively but, early in the season, even during THE winning streak, his body language was often deflated or uncertain. He's got a bright future, IMO.

That is not me saying he and Suggs are an ideal starting backcourt.

[richi_v25]

He literally quit being a teenager a few weeks ago, i think he'll pan out ok. After watching Suggs develop I'm no longer so doom and gloom.

[JoshuaPotter]

What's really challenging in all the projection narratives. Including my own. The fact is he started the season with 0 role. I do not think the plan was for him to even touch the hardwood this year except in blow outs.

So when people say that he was given a task because "the coach told him too". That sounds believable. You wouldn't want your scarce minutes yanked.

Then we have the problem with "veterans" getting minutes over him due to decision making and "were are competing for the highest seeding possible".

At the moment, I do not think Harris, Fultz, and Houstan are better then Black. They may have an element of the game, or a veteran status that puts them ahead of him. But I do not feel they are overall the better player even now.

Cole this year is about on par with Black. Black is a step down from Suggs.

If Black played more and had a bigger role would we have lost more games? Yeah. I think so.

Only other comment I can make is if he never cracks the roster with this cast of naredowells at G. Then maybe I was wrong and he wasn't worth the draft pick.

[Fortune Teller]

If Black were capable of being a PG in the NBA, I think we would have seen *some* sign of that this season. He entered a situation that was tailor-made for development, and has done little more than play defense and stand around off-ball on offense. The nominal starting PG won't shoot outside the paint and has missed huge chunks of time, and we still don't see AB developing as a PG. We hardly see him running point at all despite minimal competition. I'm glad he looks competent enough to make a living in the NBA as a projected connector, but I wouldn't set expectations too high for him. I still think we could've gotten better value by trading that pick, unless we want to act like Welt's plan was to draft Suggs and Black at #5 and #6, two years apart, and *still* not have a starting PG.

[eyriq]

If Black were capable of being a PG in the NBA, I think we would have seen *some* sign of that this season. He entered a situation that was tailor-made for development, and has done little more than play defense and stand around off-ball on offense. The nominal starting PG won't shoot outside the paint and has missed huge chunks of time, and we still don't see AB developing as a PG. We hardly see him running point at all despite minimal competition. I'm glad he looks competent enough to make a living in the NBA as a projected connector, but I wouldn't set expectations too high for him. I still think we could've gotten better value by trading that pick, unless we want to act like Welt's plan was to draft Suggs and Black at #5 and #6, two years apart, and *still* not have a starting PG.

Who do you see running PG? That answer will help you contextualize Black's role.

[basketballRob]

I want to caveat what I'm about to say by recognizing that not every player develops the same way and also where a team happens to be in their competitive process absolutely plays a factor in this.

That said...

When it comes to player development, I tend to prefer "feed a young player as much as they can handle, figure out what they can't do and then pull some of it back" than "give them very little to start out and slowly increase the size of their bites" as a development method.

Anthony Black's USG this year is just 12.5%. The history of NBA rookies with usage rates that low generally speaking do not increase significantly over the course of their careers.

Andre Iguodala: 12.8% rookie, 16.9% career
Mikal Bridges: 12.2% rookie, 17.3% career (he's a 25% USG guy now, but also not doing particularly well in that role)
Justise Winslow: 12.5% rookie, 17.1% career
Boris Diaw: 11.4% rookie, 16.3% career
Dorian Finney-Smith: 11.6% rookie, 13.1% career
Jaden McDaniels: 12.8% rookie, 14.8% career
OG Anunoby: 12.4% rookie, 17.1% career
Bruce Brown: 11.5% rookie, 15.6% career
Matisse Thybulle: 11.2% rookie, 10.2% career

Jalen Suggs was a 25% USG as a rookie and the first couple of months of his 2nd year. He struggled with a lot of things, including health, but the Magic were still able to figure out some of the things he could handle and some of the things he couldn't handle. Ultimately his role adjusted downward accordingly and he's settled into a really nice 20% USG spot that we all like.

Cole Anthony was a 24% USG as a rookie and 25% USG as a 2nd year player, and then that shifted down to 21.5% for Year 3 which was the best year of his career by a lot.

Franz started out at 21.2 USG%, handled it really well, and kept getting more and more and is now 26 USG%.

I don't want this to come off like I'm knocking Black. I'm not. Several of the names on the list above were or still are extremely valuable NBA players on teams that won championships or are planning to make deep playoff runs.

I just don't think Black's ever going to be a high usage player. And that's ok! He can still make an unbelievable amount of money as a floor raising player. But since he doesn't project - at least to me - to be more than a floor raising, connector role player type, I would still be looking for a capable point guard in both the short and potentially long term while keeping Black.

Suggs and Cole were on bad teams that emphasized giving the rookies usage.

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[eyriq]

I want to caveat what I'm about to say by recognizing that not every player develops the same way and also where a team happens to be in their competitive process absolutely plays a factor in this.

That said...

When it comes to player development, I tend to prefer "feed a young player as much as they can handle, figure out what they can't do and then pull some of it back" than "give them very little to start out and slowly increase the size of their bites" as a development method.

Anthony Black's USG this year is just 12.5%. The history of NBA rookies with usage rates that low generally speaking do not increase significantly over the course of their careers.

Andre Iguodala: 12.8% rookie, 16.9% career
Mikal Bridges: 12.2% rookie, 17.3% career (he's a 25% USG guy now, but also not doing particularly well in that role)
Justise Winslow: 12.5% rookie, 17.1% career
Boris Diaw: 11.4% rookie, 16.3% career
Dorian Finney-Smith: 11.6% rookie, 13.1% career
Jaden McDaniels: 12.8% rookie, 14.8% career
OG Anunoby: 12.4% rookie, 17.1% career
Bruce Brown: 11.5% rookie, 15.6% career
Matisse Thybulle: 11.2% rookie, 10.2% career

Jalen Suggs was a 25% USG as a rookie and the first couple of months of his 2nd year. He struggled with a lot of things, including health, but the Magic were still able to figure out some of the things he could handle and some of the things he couldn't handle. Ultimately his role adjusted downward accordingly and he's settled into a really nice 20% USG spot that we all like.

Cole Anthony was a 24% USG as a rookie and 25% USG as a 2nd year player, and then that shifted down to 21.5% for Year 3 which was the best year of his career by a lot.

Franz started out at 21.2 USG%, handled it really well, and kept getting more and more and is now 26 USG%.

I don't want this to come off like I'm knocking Black. I'm not. Several of the names on the list above were or still are extremely valuable NBA players on teams that won championships or are planning to make deep playoff runs.

I just don't think Black's ever going to be a high usage player. And that's ok! He can still make an unbelievable amount of money as a floor raising player. But since he doesn't project - at least to me - to be more than a floor raising, connector role player type, I would still be looking for a capable point guard in both the short and potentially long term while keeping Black.

What's the expected usage for the

#3 option?
#4 option?
#5 option?

C?
PF?
SF?
SG?
PG?

[Knightro]

What's the expected usage for the

#3 option?
#4 option?
#5 option?

C?
PF?
SF?
SG?
PG?

Obviously it is going to vary greatly team-to-team based on personnel. And I definitely don't think it can be broken down by position whatsoever. A team with Joel Embiid at C is going to have a much bigger percentage of usage from their center than a team with Dereck Lively at C, ya know?

Boston is the No. 1 offense in the league and their breakdown looks like this...

#1 option: 30%
#2 option: 28%
#3 option 25%
#4 option 19%
#5 option 16%

Indiana is No. 2 and their breakdown is...

#1 option 25%
#2 option 25%
#3 option 23%
#4 option 23%
#5 option 16%

I don't think there's really any steadfast rules to any of this though. It just depends on the personnel you have.

[Knightro]

Suggs and Cole were on bad teams that emphasized giving the rookies usage.

Literally the very first thing I said was...

"Where a team happens to be in their competitive process absolutely plays a factor in this."

[fateis007]

AB is dealing with what most rookies deal with getting put into this position.

We are a playoff team now, and there is less responsiblity to go around for him. At this point his role is to move the ball, play solid defense, and hit an open shot and not turn the ball over. And he is doing better then expected.

But if you're expecting him to come in and and throw up crazy stats as a rookie, those days are over once we started becoming a playoff team.

There simply is no margin for him to learn on the job now and put the ball in his hands more. We are chasing a top 4 seed and are in heavy contension with the 4-9 spot all being close.

Franz/Paolo pretty much run the show with the ball now, with Joe and Cole (and Fultz sadly) doing it off the bench. Those are the 4 guys creating and running our offense.

And now you have Juggs growing into our third best player and is shooting lights out and being a good ball handler when he gets the chance. It's a recipe for a rookie taking a backseat.

Do you really think Mosley is going to risk that so that we can put the ball in AB's hands and let him run pick and rolls or run some isolation plays with him

I am happy with him, and I think as vets go out, he will gets more reps and more oppurtunity. But if I have to choose between being another lottery team and watching AB flourish with the ball, or him being put into specific roles and us making the playoffs on our top guys shoulders, then i choose the latter