NBA referees have adjusted how they officiate - how it impacts Orlando

[Knightro]

So in the latest Bill Simmons Podcast, the Sunday episode with Ryen Russillo, they opened the podcast with an extended back-and-forth on how NBA referees have completely adjusted the way they've been calling games since the all-star break.

Long story short, there has been a massive increase in physicality on the floor as referees have basically stopped calling a bunch of the same fouls they were calling before the all-star break.

The sample size is still small (although growing every day), but the numbers bear this out.

PRE ALL-STAR
League Average PPG: 114.9
League Average FTA: 22.3
League Average ORTG: 116.2
League Average Pace: 99.30

POST ALL-STAR
League Average PPG: 111.1
League Average FTA: 19.3
League Average ORTG: 112.9
League Average Pace: 98.47

Scoring, offensive rating and free throw attempts are all way down. Pace is a little bit slower.

How does this impact the Magic?

MAGIC PRE ALL-STAR
PPG: 111.7
FTA: 25.6
ORTG: 113.0
DRTG: 112.0
Pace: 98.20

MAGIC POST ALL-STAR
PPG: 104.7
FTA: 22.3
ORTG: 110.8
DRTG: 107.3
Pace: 94.45

So there's good and bad things in here for the Magic.

The Magic were already good at mucking things up and making it grimy. That has manifested itself out even more so since the all-star break. The Magic have played at one of the slowest paces and lead the NBA in both defensive rebounding and total rebounding since the break.

However...

If teams are not going to be rewarded with as many free throws as they were earlier in the season, then scoring will inevitably fall more on shotmaking. And that has not been the Magic's strong suit throughout this season whatsoever.

Also more physicality being allowed means more offensive turnovers, and the Magic are dead last in the NBA in turnover percentage since the all-star break.

Overall I'd say it's more bad than good for Orlando since they've been so reliant on free throws for scoring this season.

LISTEN: https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2024/3/11/24096953/nbas-20-year-shift-a-sneaky-rule-change-lebrons-next-deal-and-so-long-mac-jones-with-ryen-russillo,

[eyriq]

Great analysis. Looks like a clear discontinuity. The boost in net rating is likely due to strength of schedule. I'm curious how the effect varies by style. Our offense is driven by free throw rate and offensive rebounding, with the higher the proportion of scoring in the paint driving out chances of winning. You could be right that this puts us at a disadvantage but it's not obvious.

[Skybox]

I think it's already helped ORL get where they are (seemingly ahead of schedule)...there's really no such thing as a "finesse defensive-minded team". Physicality and "effort on defense" are basically one and the same. It doesn't change the fact that we need to get more outside scoring as other teams may adjust to more physical style (like ours already is)...it will also put more of a $ premium on physical defensive players that may not have had as high a demand (like Suggs, maybe PJ Tucker makes a big comeback, Steven Adams, Isaac?, Claxton)...if it becomes universally recognized as a coming trend, prices may go up.

Also consider that our impotent offense might get even worse. Open 3's are the "release valve" of a physical game...and the only way to blow it open when our two forwards get trapped in mud in the paint...so, on that end, it's even worse for us because we rely so heavily on our forwards working inside...more than ever, we need reliable, aggressive outside shotmakers.

[JoshuaPotter]

Claxton...the people are whispering....Claxton

It's almost like the Dwight Howard build in reverse....

Paolo = Bigger Hedo / Franz = more finese Lewis / Claxton = Howard / AB = Mo Pete/Ariza reborn / PG Suggs = Jameer / Cole

Back to my hole......

[thelead]

I’m pretty sure Realgm was on this before the media. I swear the media goes through threads for good ideas/topics and the start of their analysis

[eyriq]

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[RookieStar]

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I need to insert the meme Bill Clinton : " I did not have sexual relations with that woman "

[FFBlitzace]

While I like fewer whistles and agree with it in a vacuum, you can't call the first 50 games one way and then call the rest of the games another. It's like an umpire changing their strike zone midway through the 6th inning. Whatever changes are going to be made (transparently or not), it needs to happen between seasons.

[J the Drafter]

You also can’t ignore clear fouls, which is what I saw happening in the games I watched.

[Optimus_Steel]

While I like fewer whistles and agree with it in a vacuum, you can't call the first 50 games one way and then call the rest of the games another. It's like an umpire changing their strike zone midway through the 6th inning. Whatever changes are going to be made (transparently or not), it needs to happen between seasons.

I think in general the average basketball junkie like all us here would prefer this change.

[The-Stallion70]

Has there been any real news of an actual rule change?

Is the NBA required to disclose it if there is? If so what kind of change?

Until then, I just think this is because of sample size more than anything.

And even if the mathematical trend continues, it still does not mean that there was a change in how officials do their jobs, just because the numbers arent exactly the same earlier in the year.

Remember these basketball podcoast guys have to fill air time with content anyways, regardless of whether it's any good or if it actually makes sense.

[pepe1991]

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I need to insert the meme Bill Clinton : " I did not have sexual relations with that woman "

I have never seen less proud (man) of scoring in my life after that 1998.
Guy later claimed she gave him a head to "relieve pressures of the job". Real OG.

props to Monika as well

[pepe1991]

NBA has always been star driven league. Nobody feels special if you have 50 players averaging numbers that used to be only achivable by stars. If every player is "special" it just means nothing and nobody is really special.

it's almost like WWE post prime years problem where bunch of new "special stars" were breaking their imaginary records but due fact everyone was next big thing, nobody really actually was- organic -next big thing.

Lebron's legacy would look different if he could still score 25 a game, but instad of him being one of 52 to average 20 ppg a game, he is like one of 15 who actually can do that. But that's not a case, Lebron averages numbers that areachivable by random names like Kyle Kuzma and Julius Randle.


Last season had 15 players who combined for 25 -fifty point games ( or more). That was record that was held since 1960s.

This year started crazy, we had 73 points game. But once agian, non of it really feels special. When Kobe dropped 81 it was breaking news all over a world. Literally i remember waking up, tuning in f****ing teletext and it was first news on my non-sport -channel. First news i saw, early in a morning, at 9 am and it was second biggest news. On a radio later that day, all the way to Eastern Europe it was a news. It ment something.
Now, Luka scores 73, it's almost anedcotal. Why ? Well Lillard had 71 points game last year, Embiid scored 70 - 2 days before, Booker, Towns, Curry already scored 60. It's not big of a deal.


NBA has to decide what they want to be. Actual sport, and have sport- like atmosphere, and let players be competitive ( instad giving them tehniquals for being emotional) , have officiating that cares about integrity of basketball & basketball rules OR be like WWE. Sport's entertaiment, where players will continue to put crazy numbers, athletes will be "superstars" more than actual athletes , basketball rulebook will have no meaning and defense will be complete aftertought, so will results.

But you can't be both.

[Knightro]

Has there been any real news of an actual rule change?

Is the NBA required to disclose it if there is? If so what kind of change?

Until then, I just think this is because of sample size more than anything.

And even if the mathematical trend continues, it still does not mean that there was a change in how officials do their jobs, just because the numbers arent exactly the same earlier in the year.

Remember these basketball podcoast guys have to fill air time with content anyways, regardless of whether it's any good or if it actually makes sense.

The opposite actually. The NBA says there has NOT been a directive from the league to officiate games differently. But that just doesn't seem true.

Most people think the league is just covering their own asses after making a unilateral and significant change during the middle of a season and without consulting the NBAPA.

[JoshuaPotter]

I find the narrative interesting how so many people state the obvious yet the NBA official brass denies it. Curious.

[The-Stallion70]

The opposite actually. The NBA says there has NOT been a directive from the league to officiate games differently. But that just doesn't seem true.

Most people think the league is just covering their own asses after making a unilateral and significant change during the middle of a season and without consulting the NBAPA.

Most people think that? What source do you have for that? Or is that something they stated on the pod?

[eyriq]

The opposite actually. The NBA says there has NOT been a directive from the league to officiate games differently. But that just doesn't seem true.

Most people think the league is just covering their own asses after making a unilateral and significant change during the middle of a season and without consulting the NBAPA.

Most people think that? What source do you have for that? Or is that something they stated on the pod?

Most NBA analysts think this.

[JoshuaPotter]

What is the current technical rate pre-post all star break? Did we have a record for techs in a game for the season last night? Anybody know?

[The-Stallion70]

The opposite actually. The NBA says there has NOT been a directive from the league to officiate games differently. But that just doesn't seem true.

Most people think the league is just covering their own asses after making a unilateral and significant change during the middle of a season and without consulting the NBAPA.

Most people think that? What source do you have for that? Or is that something they stated on the pod?

Most NBA analysts think this.

Source?

[The-Stallion70]

NBA has always been star driven league. Nobody feels special if you have 50 players averaging numbers that used to be only achivable by stars. If every player is "special" it just means nothing and nobody is really special.

it's almost like WWE post prime years problem where bunch of new "special stars" were breaking their imaginary records but due fact everyone was next big thing, nobody really actually was- organic -next big thing.

Lebron's legacy would look different if he could still score 25 a game, but instad of him being one of 52 to average 20 ppg a game, he is like one of 15 who actually can do that. But that's not a case, Lebron averages numbers that areachivable by random names like Kyle Kuzma and Julius Randle.


Last season had 15 players who combined for 25 -fifty point games ( or more). That was record that was held since 1960s.

This year started crazy, we had 73 points game. But once agian, non of it really feels special. When Kobe dropped 81 it was breaking news all over a world. Literally i remember waking up, tuning in f****ing teletext and it was first news on my non-sport -channel. First news i saw, early in a morning, at 9 am and it was second biggest news. On a radio later that day, all the way to Eastern Europe it was a news. It ment something.
Now, Luka scores 73, it's almost anedcotal. Why ? Well Lillard had 71 points game last year, Embiid scored 70 - 2 days before, Booker, Towns, Curry already scored 60. It's not big of a deal.


NBA has to decide what they want to be. Actual sport, and have sport- like atmosphere, and let players be competitive ( instad giving them tehniquals for being emotional) , have officiating that cares about integrity of basketball & basketball rules OR be like WWE. Sport's entertaiment, where players will continue to put crazy numbers, athletes will be "superstars" more than actual athletes , basketball rulebook will have no meaning and defense will be complete aftertought, so will results.

But you can't be both.

Does the idea that they would want to reduce crazy scoring in games make sense? I think it does. I also think you support your posts we here but there isn't enough hard data yet to convince me that games are being called differently.

Part of me thinks that Knightro wants to point this out to tie it into his Anthony Black narrative about needing a point guard with offensive skills, which I agree with. But the data here isn't enough to convince me that this is really happening.