Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 4.0

[cedric76]

We want Mac McClung!


..

Why want Mac McClung when we have the next Booker

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/comments/14lkdq9/jett_howard_devin_booker_comparison_via_datguycamo/

Your posts probably make me sound like the biggest hater of our guys...but they should really all be in green font

Hater and compulsive trader. , you r hard to please

[Knightro]

You retain all your assets now but what happens when you are well into the tax pushing against the apron in year 3 with Paolo max extension. At that point you will have to give up Suggs or Isaac. I also have Vince Carter and Lewis rapid declines to absolutely worthless sitting in the back of my head. You would have to think about it but its really risky.

Ehh maybe.

The cap and tax apron are *allegedly* going to increase by a flat 10% each year. If that's the case...

2024-2025 aka George Year 1
Cap: $141M
Tax: $171.3M
Apron 1: $178.6M
Apron 2: $189.4M

George: 49.3M
Paolo 12.2M
Suggs: 9.2M
Franz: 7.0M
Total: $77.7M on core four, $93.3M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax

Verdict: Well under the tax

2025-2026 aka George Year 2, Franz Year 1 and Suggs Year 1
Cap: $155.1M
Tax: $188.4M
Apron 1: $196.4M
Apron 2: $208.4M

George: 51.8M
Franz 38.8M (max deal)
Suggs: 25M (4/100 deal)
Paolo 15.3M

Total: $130.9M on core four, $57.5 on the rest of the roster to avoid tax (Cole, Carter, Black, Howard, Houstan, 2024 1st rounder, 2025 1st rounder under contract)

Verdict: *Likely* under the tax with some simple maneuvering

2026-2027 aka George Year 3, Franz Year 2, Suggs Year 2 and Paolo Year 1
Cap: $170.6M
Tax: $207.2M
Apron 1: $216.1M
Apron 2: $229.2M

George: $54.2M
Paolo $42.7M
Franz: $41.9M
Suggs: $27M

Total: $165.8 on core four, $41.4M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax, $63.4M to avoid 2nd apron

Verdict: Tax team, but very likely under the 2nd apron

2027-2028 aka George Year 4, Franz Year 3, Suggs Year 3 and Paolo Year 2
Cap: $187.6M
Tax: $228.0M
Apron 1: $237.7M
Apron 2: $252.1M

George $56.7M
Paolo $46.1M
Franz: $45.3M
Suggs: $29.2M

Total: $177.3 on core four, $50.7M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax, $74.8M to avoid 2nd apron

Verdict: Tax team, but very likely under the 2nd apron

Then George would come off the books and the finances would completely reset.

What it really boils down to is this...

Do you think adding Paul George to this existing roster and internal improvements from Paolo, Franz, Suggs, Black and Howard would make them a contender to win the Eastern Conference in the next two years?

If so, I think you have to pull the trigger the signing. If not, you probably shouldn't because Year 3 and Year 4 have the possibility to be real ugly.

This is assuming PG gets a four year deal, if he'd take a 3 year deal I think it's a no-brainer to sign him since it would only be one potentially painful year before he's gone.

[Jiwol]

We want Mac McClung!


..

Why want Mac McClung when we have the next Booker

https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/comments/14lkdq9/jett_howard_devin_booker_comparison_via_datguycamo/

Your posts probably make me sound like the biggest hater of our guys...but they should really all be in green font

Can't agree more. The dude is like a running joke for so many years now. You're not a hater, just a realist.

[eyriq]

You retain all your assets now but what happens when you are well into the tax pushing against the apron in year 3 with Paolo max extension. At that point you will have to give up Suggs or Isaac. I also have Vince Carter and Lewis rapid declines to absolutely worthless sitting in the back of my head. You would have to think about it but its really risky.

Ehh maybe.

The cap and tax apron are *allegedly* going to increase by a flat 10% each year. If that's the case...

2024-2025 aka George Year 1
Cap: $141M
Tax: $171.3M
Apron 1: $178.6M
Apron 2: $189.4M

George: 49.3M
Paolo 12.2M
Suggs: 9.2M
Franz: 7.0M
Total: $77.7M on core four, $93.3M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax

Verdict: Well under the tax

2025-2026 aka George Year 2, Franz Year 1 and Suggs Year 1
Cap: $155.1M
Tax: $188.4M
Apron 1: $196.4M
Apron 2: $208.4M

George: 51.8M
Franz 38.8M (max deal)
Suggs: 25M (4/100 deal)
Paolo 15.3M

Total: $130.9M on core four, $57.5 on the rest of the roster to avoid tax (Cole, Carter, Black, Howard, Houstan, 2024 1st rounder, 2025 1st rounder under contract)

Verdict: *Likely* under the tax with some simple maneuvering

2026-2027 aka George Year 3, Franz Year 2, Suggs Year 2 and Paolo Year 1
Cap: $170.6M
Tax: $207.2M
Apron 1: $216.1M
Apron 2: $229.2M

George: $54.2M
Paolo $42.7M
Franz: $41.9M
Suggs: $27M

Total: $165.8 on core four, $41.4M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax, $63.4M to avoid 2nd apron

Verdict: Tax team, but very likely under the 2nd apron

2027-2028 aka George Year 4, Franz Year 3, Suggs Year 3 and Paolo Year 2
Cap: $187.6M
Tax: $228.0M
Apron 1: $237.7M
Apron 2: $252.1M

George $56.7M
Paolo $46.1M
Franz: $45.3M
Suggs: $29.2M

Total: $177.3 on core four, $50.7M on the rest of the roster to avoid tax, $74.8M to avoid 2nd apron

Verdict: Tax team, but very likely under the 2nd apron

Then George would come off the books and the finances would completely reset.

What it really boils down to is this...

Do you think adding Paul George to this existing roster and internal improvements from Paolo, Franz, Suggs, Black and Howard would make them a contender to win the Eastern Conference in the next two years?

If so, I think you have to pull the trigger the signing. If not, you probably shouldn't because Year 3 and Year 4 have the possibility to be real ugly.

This is assuming PG gets a four year deal, if he'd take a 3 year deal I think it's a no-brainer to sign him since it would only be one potentially painful year before he's gone.

There's no way adding Paul George makes us a contender over the next two years

[Knightro]

There's no way adding Paul George makes us a contender over the next two years

Interesting.

What would make them a contender over the next two years in your mind?

If the answer is nothing, then we're really kind of in an interesting spot because the money is eventually going to disappear on extensions.

[ARandomStranger]

I think adding anyone that takes the pressure off of Paolo and Franz is going to help us become a contender. Right now, offense has been atrocious, and adding a guy like PG who is a bucket getter and can play off-ball with his shooting is actually kind of a no-brainer. If he is available, you get him, and you don't look back. Guy makes us one of the better teams in the East.

[Residual-Heat]

If we can win 47 games with a 6 PPG Gary Harris. PG will take us to 50-55 wins and ECF contenders. I am not afraid of the Celtics despite their regular season record. PG is still a great player, great fit and i dont see him regressing badly within the next 2 years. He's easily a 20-5-5 player with great+versatile defense and a volume 3pt shooter at 40+%.

FWIW I dont expect him to leave the Clippers and think if he was to leave the CLippers, Philly would be his preferred destination.

[eyriq]

There's no way adding Paul George makes us a contender over the next two years

Interesting.

What would make them a contender over the next two years in your mind?

If the answer is nothing, then we're really kind of in an interesting spot because the money is eventually going to disappear on extensions.

Generically we need top 10, top 20, and top 50 guys, or said another way, a team in the quadrant of wow, top 10 in both offense and defense.

Are Franz, Paolo, Suggs, or PG13 making an All-NBA 1st or 2nd team in the next two seasons?

Are two of them making an all-star team over the next two seasons?

Are 3 or more of them the second best player on ten other teams?

Does our offense crack the top ten over the next two seasons?

I mean, maybe, but personally I think our window opens when Paolo is in his prime, not on his rookie scale contract.

[byeganyo]

There's no way adding Paul George makes us a contender over the next two years

Interesting.

What would make them a contender over the next two years in your mind?

If the answer is nothing, then we're really kind of in an interesting spot because the money is eventually going to disappear on extensions.

eyriq is wroking for the management and trying to implant the idea that doing nothing is the best option

My problem with PG is not age or quality but availability -he has missed like 40% of the games in the past 5 seasons...

[basketballRob]

I'm okay with Paul George. Hopefully, he'd accept 2 years with an option for year 3. Players like AB and Jett would get more of an opportunity if most of our salary was paid to 4 players. Right now, we have so many mid level type players to fill in the rotation. PG would mean Harris, Fultz, and Ingles would be gone.

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[eyriq]

There's no way adding Paul George makes us a contender over the next two years

Interesting.

What would make them a contender over the next two years in your mind?

If the answer is nothing, then we're really kind of in an interesting spot because the money is eventually going to disappear on extensions.

eyriq is wroking for the management and trying to implant the idea that doing nothing is the best option

My problem with PG is not age or quality but availability -he has missed like 40% of the games in the past 5 seasons...

Haha, no! I've just bought into the idea of developing AB and my preferences are framed around the objective of maximizing his development. I also think that maximizes our long-term outlook.

[basketballRob]

Interesting.

What would make them a contender over the next two years in your mind?

If the answer is nothing, then we're really kind of in an interesting spot because the money is eventually going to disappear on extensions.

eyriq is wroking for the management and trying to implant the idea that doing nothing is the best option

My problem with PG is not age or quality but availability -he has missed like 40% of the games in the past 5 seasons...

Haha, no! I've just bought into the idea of developing AB and my preferences are framed around the objective of maximizing his development. I also think that maximizes our long-term outlook.

If PG missed like 35 games, that would mean that AB would likely be playing heavy minutes.

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[Knightro]

If we can win 47 games with a 6 PPG Gary Harris. PG will take us to 50-55 wins and ECF contenders. I am not afraid of the Celtics despite their regular season record. PG is still a great player, great fit and i dont see him regressing badly within the next 2 years. He's easily a 20-5-5 player with great+versatile defense and a volume 3pt shooter at 40+%.

FWIW I dont expect him to leave the Clippers and think if he was to leave the CLippers, Philly would be his preferred destination.

The Clippers are in an interesting spot here.

They're at 117M in committed salary on 8 players, but both Harden and George are free agents and both of them want max deals (or as close to it as humanly possible).

If they give in and give both guys the max, that would be $49.3M for each guy. And that would launch them from 117M all the way to a little over 215M.

That would put them almost $26M over the 2nd apron. I know Ballmer is incredibly wealthy, so I'm not super concerned with the luxury tax hit (although it would be MASSIVE), but the penalties for being over the 2nd apron are just brutal.

Can't use the MLE.
Can't trade 1st round picks 7 years out (so 2031 picks are off the table)
Can't aggregated contracts to trade for a single player making more money
Can't can’t use trade exceptions created from a prior year

Like they would basically be completely and 100% stuck with the team they have right now... which might not even get out of the first round here.

[Knightro]

"Sign and trade for no one of consequence and hope like hell Anthony Black isn't a scrub while burning up all your cap flexibility on Franz, Suggs and Paolo's contract extensions" is not a viable strategy. It's just not.

The whole point of building up all this cap space and cap flexibility is so you can aggressively add when the time is right and then exceed the salary cap as necessary to retain your own players.

Before it all goes away.

[eyriq]

"Sign and trade for no one of consequence and hope like hell Anthony Black isn't a scrub while burning up all your cap flexibility on Franz, Suggs and Paolo's contract extensions" is not a viable strategy. It's just not.

The whole point of building up all this cap space and cap flexibility is so you can aggressively add when the time is right and then exceed the salary cap as necessary to retain your own players.

Before it all goes away.

I actually think it is a viable strategy. That's what tanking for lotto picks is all about. Respectfully, it's page one in the tanking playbook.

[basketballRob]

We could overpay an FA for 1 year like the Pacers did with Bruce Brown and then package him a 2 first round picks for a player like Donovan Mitchell. If Mitchell doesn't sign an extension, Cleveland could be forced to take less.

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[JoshuaPotter]

"Sign and trade for no one of consequence and hope like hell Anthony Black isn't a scrub while burning up all your cap flexibility on Franz, Suggs and Paolo's contract extensions" is not a viable strategy. It's just not.

The whole point of building up all this cap space and cap flexibility is so you can aggressively add when the time is right and then exceed the salary cap as necessary to retain your own players.

Before it all goes away.

I actually think it is a viable strategy. That's what tanking for lotto picks is all about. Respectfully, it's page one in the tanking playbook.

The problem is, we took page one of the tanking playbook and lit...it...on...fire to warm Fultz shoulder and Harris knee.

[eyriq]

I think we just need window dressing. Move the deck chairs around. Leave space for Suggs to be the 3rd option next season and for AB and Jett to play a significant minutes.

[eyriq]

"Sign and trade for no one of consequence and hope like hell Anthony Black isn't a scrub while burning up all your cap flexibility on Franz, Suggs and Paolo's contract extensions" is not a viable strategy. It's just not.

The whole point of building up all this cap space and cap flexibility is so you can aggressively add when the time is right and then exceed the salary cap as necessary to retain your own players.

Before it all goes away.

I actually think it is a viable strategy. That's what tanking for lotto picks is all about. Respectfully, it's page one in the tanking playbook.

The problem is, we took page one of the tanking playbook and lit...it...on...fire to warm Fultz shoulder and Harris knee.

LOL yeah, player management has been so odd, almost schizophrenic

[Audi]

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