Knightro wrote:eyriq wrote:You'd have to break this down for me, I don't see how running it back = setback
The Magic were the healthiest team in the Eastern Conference this season. They benefitted significantly from other teams in the East suffering significant injuries, both in terms of winning a lot of regular season games against teams missing star players and also from teams who finished barely behind them in the standings having long extended stretches without their top talent.
That is very unlikely to be sustainable.
Combined Games Missed by Top 3 ScorersCeltics: 45 games
Knicks: 42 games
Bucks: 45 games
Cavs: 57 games
Magic: 19 gamesPacers: 41 games
Sixers: 67 games
Heat: 73 games
Bulls: 63 games
Hawks: 58 games
On top of that, I assume you're talking about replacing a very capable veteran in Gary Harris who has made 39% of his threes on 8.2 3PTA/100 while playing very respectable defense since joining the Magic with a 20 year old who barely cracked 1000 minutes as a rookie and was statistically a net negative.
Black was nearly twice as bad as Harris (-2.9 to -1.5) according to EPM. To assume there won't be a drop off making that switch seems like wishful thinking in a big way. Plus throw in the desire to have Jett, who basically didn't even play at all this season into the rotation too.
Those two guys are very likely going to be negatives next season because they're so young and so inexperienced. Most young guys are bad. The time to play them and work out some of those young guy problems was this year. Not next year when the expectation level is going to be a lot higher than it was this year.
As much as everyone is in a group hug right now with this team exceeding expectations...
The FO still has a huge offseason to address. Why? Because contract windows don't stop. Acquiring players shouldn't be put on hold for a young roster with glaring needs. At some point they will need to gradually acquire players that fill those needs, rather than believing it will happen all at once.
Now, if people want to make the argument that Anthony Black and Jett Howard should be stepping into minutes then thats another argument... But people should not be expecting
better results if thats the case. People forget that Orlando was
very healthy this season comparatively.
There will absolutely be a drop-off next season if the FO doesn't actually start to shape this roster around Paolo, Franz, and Suggs. It still remains to be seen. They now have all the information available to make decisions. There is no waiting game that solves the issues available if they want to increase the teams ceiling for next season outside of extreme jumps in development. The composition still doesnt change though.
