Orlando Magic Playoff EPM

[Knightro]

Dunks and Threes finally released their playoff EPM numbers today. Obviously this is just a 7-game sample size, but thought it was worth sharing nonetheless.

Suggs: −0.1 Offensive EPM, +1.7 Defensive EPM, +1.6 Total EPM
Paolo: +1.1 Offensive EPM, +0.1 Defensive EPM,+1.2 Total EPM
Franz: +0.9 Offensive EPM, −0.7 Defensive EPM, +0.2 Total EPM

Isaac: −1.9 Offensive EPM, +1.4 Defensive EPM, −0.6 Total EPM
Carter: −2.0 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −0.8 Total EPM

Moritz: −2.9 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −1.7 Total EPM
Ingles: −2.5 Offensive EPM, −1.1 Defensive EPM, −3.5 Total EPM
Cole: −4.3 Offensive EPM, +0.4 Defensive EPM, −3.9 Total EPM
Fultz: −2.1 Offensive EPM, −2.8 Defensive EPM, −4.8 Total EPM
Harris: −3.4 Offensive EPM, −1.9 Defensive EPM,−5.2 Total EPM

https://dunksandthrees.com/ (subscription needed)

[PrimeThyme]

Seems about right. I get continuity and culture, but you could make a reasonable case to replace every single player in this rotation after the big 3 this summer.

[eyriq]

The Boys (Suggs, Paolo, and Franz) clear. Love to see this.

Devastated that JI failed to scale and withered under the bright lights.

WCJ cemented his status as a deck chair.

The bench sucking makes it even easier to clear a path for AB and Jett.

Edit: also, Harris is not a playoff rotation player and the narrative we missed him was garbage and I'm glad this supports that.

[JoshuaPotter]

Dunks and Threes finally released their playoff EPM numbers today. Obviously this is just a 7-game sample size, but thought it was worth sharing nonetheless.

Suggs: −0.1 Offensive EPM, +1.7 Defensive EPM, +1.6 Total EPM
Paolo: +1.1 Offensive EPM, +0.1 Defensive EPM,+1.2 Total EPM
Franz: +0.9 Offensive EPM, −0.7 Defensive EPM, +0.2 Total EPM

Isaac: −1.9 Offensive EPM, +1.4 Defensive EPM, −0.6 Total EPM
Carter: −2.0 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −0.8 Total EPM
Moritz: −2.9 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −1.7 Total EPM
Ingles: −2.5 Offensive EPM, −1.1 Defensive EPM, −3.5 Total EPM
Cole: −4.3 Offensive EPM, +0.4 Defensive EPM, −3.9 Total EPM
Fultz: −2.1 Offensive EPM, −2.8 Defensive EPM, −4.8 Total EPM
Harris: −3.4 Offensive EPM, −1.9 Defensive EPM,−5.2 Total EPM

https://dunksandthrees.com/ (subscription needed)

Stats match the eye test! Hallelujah!

Seems about right. I get continuity and culture, but you could make a reasonable case to replace every single player in this rotation after the big 3 this summer.

This guy, looks at it, and instantly gets it. @eyriq pull this man up a chair......

The Boys (Suggs, Paolo, and Franz) clear. Love to see this.

Devastated that JI failed to scale and withered under the bright lights.

WCJ cemented his status as a deck chair.

The bench sucking makes it even easier to clear a path for AB and Jett.

Edit: also, Harris is not a playoff rotation player and the narrative we missed him was garbage and I'm glad this supports that.

What am I bothered by in all this? Nothing.

All of the guys in red have peaked.

You know who hasn't? The person I advocated we were better off long term playing and see how he develops in the NBA grind of a season....

I wont say who that player is.

[RichCollab]

The Boys (Suggs, Paolo, and Franz) clear. Love to see this.

Devastated that JI failed to scale and withered under the bright lights.

WCJ cemented his status as a deck chair.

The bench sucking makes it even easier to clear a path for AB and Jett.

Edit: also, Harris is not a playoff rotation player and the narrative we missed him was garbage and I'm glad this supports that.

Let JI get a season at full speed.

[eyriq]

The Boys (Suggs, Paolo, and Franz) clear. Love to see this.

Devastated that JI failed to scale and withered under the bright lights.

WCJ cemented his status as a deck chair.

The bench sucking makes it even easier to clear a path for AB and Jett.

Edit: also, Harris is not a playoff rotation player and the narrative we missed him was garbage and I'm glad this supports that.

Let JI get a season at full speed.

Fair enough. It's nice having multiple all-defense wing defenders on the team. I'd argue JI and then Franz are the two best wing defenders in the East.

[axl_c_cool]

Dunks and Threes finally released their playoff EPM numbers today. Obviously this is just a 7-game sample size, but thought it was worth sharing nonetheless.

Suggs: −0.1 Offensive EPM, +1.7 Defensive EPM, +1.6 Total EPM
Paolo: +1.1 Offensive EPM, +0.1 Defensive EPM,+1.2 Total EPM
Franz: +0.9 Offensive EPM, −0.7 Defensive EPM, +0.2 Total EPM

Isaac: −1.9 Offensive EPM, +1.4 Defensive EPM, −0.6 Total EPM
Carter: −2.0 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −0.8 Total EPM
Moritz: −2.9 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −1.7 Total EPM
Ingles: −2.5 Offensive EPM, −1.1 Defensive EPM, −3.5 Total EPM
Cole: −4.3 Offensive EPM, +0.4 Defensive EPM, −3.9 Total EPM
Fultz: −2.1 Offensive EPM, −2.8 Defensive EPM, −4.8 Total EPM
Harris: −3.4 Offensive EPM, −1.9 Defensive EPM,−5.2 Total EPM

https://dunksandthrees.com/ (subscription needed)

Stats match the eye test! Hallelujah!

Seems about right. I get continuity and culture, but you could make a reasonable case to replace every single player in this rotation after the big 3 this summer.

This guy, looks at it, and instantly gets it. @eyriq pull this man up a chair......

The Boys (Suggs, Paolo, and Franz) clear. Love to see this.

Devastated that JI failed to scale and withered under the bright lights.

WCJ cemented his status as a deck chair.

The bench sucking makes it even easier to clear a path for AB and Jett.

Edit: also, Harris is not a playoff rotation player and the narrative we missed him was garbage and I'm glad this supports that.

What am I bothered by in all this? Nothing.

All of the guys in red have peaked.

You know who hasn't? The person I advocated we were better off long term playing and see how he develops in the NBA grind of a season....

I wont say who that player is.

Who, please share


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[Ducklett]

Isaac had very good defensive numbers and was out there with Joe Ingles. I think he will be fine.

[basketballRob]

Suggs is becoming the star we thought he could be after that first summer league.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Skin]

How do they grade this? Was Suggs not counted as someone who guarded Donovan Mitchell who toasted us?

If so, then how is his rating so high? If not, why wasn't he?

[Knightro]

How do they grade this? Was Suggs not counted as someone who guarded Donovan Mitchell who toasted us?

If so, then how is his rating so high? If not, why wasn't he?

From their site...

EPM is an all-in-one player metric that estimates a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions for individual seasons. It is retrodictive which means a sum of EPM values by team (weighted by possessions played) will approximate that team's net points per 100 possessions.

[Skin]

How do they grade this? Was Suggs not counted as someone who guarded Donovan Mitchell who toasted us?

If so, then how is his rating so high? If not, why wasn't he?

From their site...

EPM is an all-in-one player metric that estimates a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions for individual seasons. It is retrodictive which means a sum of EPM values by team (weighted by possessions played) will approximate that team's net points per 100 possessions.

Nobody who guarded Donovan Mitchell should walk away from this series with a good defensive rating.

[basketballRob]

Suggs had a 6.8 net rating.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630591?SeasonType=Playoffs

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[Knightro]

Nobody who guarded Donovan Mitchell should walk away from this series with a good defensive rating.

The case could be made that Mitchell had 4 bad games in the series.

He actually only made more than 40% of his field goals twice in the 7 games.

[drsd]

Dunks and Threes finally released their playoff EPM numbers today. Obviously this is just a 7-game sample size, but thought it was worth sharing nonetheless.

Suggs: −0.1 Offensive EPM, +1.7 Defensive EPM, +1.6 Total EPM
Paolo: +1.1 Offensive EPM, +0.1 Defensive EPM,+1.2 Total EPM
Franz: +0.9 Offensive EPM, −0.7 Defensive EPM, +0.2 Total EPM

Isaac: −1.9 Offensive EPM, +1.4 Defensive EPM, −0.6 Total EPM
Carter: −2.0 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −0.8 Total EPM
Moritz: −2.9 Offensive EPM, +1.2 Defensive EPM, −1.7 Total EPM
Ingles: −2.5 Offensive EPM, −1.1 Defensive EPM, −3.5 Total EPM
Cole: −4.3 Offensive EPM, +0.4 Defensive EPM, −3.9 Total EPM
Fultz: −2.1 Offensive EPM, −2.8 Defensive EPM, −4.8 Total EPM
Harris: −3.4 Offensive EPM, −1.9 Defensive EPM,−5.2 Total EPM

https://dunksandthrees.com/ (subscription needed)

We always knew that Anthony was a great defender with limited offenive skills.

[Message Boar]

Franz having a negative defensive EPM for the series seems like a poor representation to me. How the hell did he get among the league leaders in playoff RAPTOR or whatever it was then?

[SOUL]

How do they grade this? Was Suggs not counted as someone who guarded Donovan Mitchell who toasted us?

If so, then how is his rating so high? If not, why wasn't he?

Harris/Suggs/Isaac were all primary Mitchell defenders in diff games and he also got in a lot of switches.

[MagicMatic]

How do they grade this? Was Suggs not counted as someone who guarded Donovan Mitchell who toasted us?

If so, then how is his rating so high? If not, why wasn't he?

From their site...

EPM is an all-in-one player metric that estimates a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions for individual seasons. It is retrodictive which means a sum of EPM values by team (weighted by possessions played) will approximate that team's net points per 100 possessions.

Nobody who guarded Donovan Mitchell should walk away from this series with a good defensive rating.

"I hate this player so this metric doesnt work for me"

Donovan Mitchell numbers over the series:

Game 7 -11/27
Game 6 -22/36
Game 5 -9/23
Game 4 - 5/14
Game 3 - 6/16
Game 2 - 9/22
Game 1 - 11/21

No offense, but what are you talking about. That's not even considering he isnt guarding him 100% of the time.

[Skin]

From their site...

EPM is an all-in-one player metric that estimates a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions for individual seasons. It is retrodictive which means a sum of EPM values by team (weighted by possessions played) will approximate that team's net points per 100 possessions.

Nobody who guarded Donovan Mitchell should walk away from this series with a good defensive rating.

"I hate this player so this metric doesnt work for me"

Donovan Mitchell numbers over the series:

Game 7 -11/27
Game 6 -22/36
Game 5 -9/23
Game 4 - 5/14
Game 3 - 6/16
Game 2 - 9/22
Game 1 - 11/21

No offense, but what are you talking about. That's not even considering he isnt guarding him 100% of the time.

Well, as SOUL says, we can't give Suggs all the blame nor all the credit.

Harris/Suggs/Isaac were all primary Mitchell defenders in diff games and he also got in a lot of switches.

Bottom line is that when we needed someone to stop Mitchell and we had the best defending Guard in the NBA according to metrics, our entire team still couldn't stop him when we needed to. Why? Because we need defense where defense matters most. IN THE POST.

EPM grades Suggs as a good defender, well I think that's cute... but I was much happier with Suggs offense in Game 6 even while Mitchell went OFF for 50, than Suggs' defense in game 7 and his offense non-existent. We need a reliable 3rd scorer. I wanna see what our record is when Suggs is a top 3 scorer for us vs when he isn't. I imagine we have more wins when his offensive output is productive. The defense while consistent, just doesn't translate to wins, imo. The defense that translates to wins is the defense that occurs in the post.

[MagicMatic]

Nobody who guarded Donovan Mitchell should walk away from this series with a good defensive rating.

"I hate this player so this metric doesnt work for me"

Donovan Mitchell numbers over the series:

Game 7 -11/27
Game 6 -22/36
Game 5 -9/23
Game 4 - 5/14
Game 3 - 6/16
Game 2 - 9/22
Game 1 - 11/21

No offense, but what are you talking about. That's not even considering he isnt guarding him 100% of the time.

Well, as SOUL says, we can't give Suggs all the blame nor all the credit.

Harris/Suggs/Isaac were all primary Mitchell defenders in diff games and he also got in a lot of switches.

Bottom line is that when we needed someone to stop Mitchell and we had the best defending Guard in the NBA according to metrics, our entire team still couldn't stop him when we needed to. Why? Because we need defense where defense matters most. IN THE POST.

EPM grades Suggs as a good defender, well I think that's cute... but I was much happier with Suggs offense in Game 6 even while Mitchell went OFF for 50, than Suggs' defense in game 7 and his offense non-existent. We need a reliable 3rd scorer. I wanna see what our record is when Suggs is a top 3 scorer for us vs when he isn't. I imagine we have more wins when his offensive output is productive. The defense while consistent, just doesn't translate to wins, imo. The defense that translates to wins is the defense that occurs in the post.

Yeah, proving my point.

Nobody did give him all the credit or say he doesn't need to be better offensively.

They posted the playoff EPM and you are perplexed that Suggs defense is high despite Donovan Mitchell taking a million shots and having 4 bad games. Yeah, I'd feel stupid too when people show me advanced metrics illustrating why my takes are bad.

Maybe basketball is 5v5 and more than 3 guys on the entire team should be able to be + players on the floor. He's working on being consistent. You're literally bitching about a guy that went from nothing his first two seasons to now saying he needs to be more reliable in games to match Paolo and Franz offensively for Orlando to win in the playoffs. You realize how stupid that sounds right? Goalposts have gotten a lot farther than just "bust". Haven't they?

Your new take is that defense doesnt translate to wins? Have you ever, yknow... just considered you are wrong?