Andre Miller

[geiger]

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q8

A decent link helping to explain the cap a bit for those who are interested.

[dbodner]

I think the luxury tax is tied in with the salary cap.

They're both tied to a % of basketball related income (salary cap 51%, luxury tax 61%), so yes, they're tied together.

I don't expect it to go down by next year. What television companies get based on ads is irrelevant. the NBA sets their price in the TV deals with the various stations, then the stations collect the income from ads. The NBA gets its fixed amount from the TV deal regardless, it's the television stations (i.e. TNT) who are hurting from a decrease in ad revenue.

Where it will come back to bite the NBA is when they negotiate the next tv deal, especially if the economy hasn't rebounded. But that won't have an affect on this year. The TV deals for this year were already in place before the season (and before the heart of the economic downturn), and next years cap/luxury tax are determined by this years figures.

NBA attendance, as a whole, isn't down all that much this year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendance?year=2009
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendance?year=2008

[83SixersRocked]

...Presuming there is the same cap next season as next season - the middle ground on the issue - here is a link to contracts we'll have on the books:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm

Not to detract from the rest of the conversation, but I was looking at that link the other day. Their numbers don't match up, starting with 2010/11. It looks like they may be showing cap holds (ie Speights) for players, but they don't reflect those $ in the totals.

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Hoopshype Total: $67,249,108 $57,215,531 $55,005,349 $36,508,976 $39,268,604 $15,904,750
Actual Total: $67,249,108 $57,215,531 $61,868,463 $46,357,617 $43,091,966 $19,728,112

[sixers_610]

Portland and LA seem like the two most likely destinations for Miller. LA is probably the best team in the league and upgrading Farmar and Fisher to Miller would put them at a higher level. I'm not sure what LA's cap is like, but I know they're losing Odom, so I'd think they can afford to resign Miller.Portland is good because that team falls under the category of "too many indians and not enough chiefs". Miller would really help that team out and give them a more balanced offense, not too mention the sixers could get some good young players back.

Doesn't LA's system need a PG who shoots the 3?

[SouthJersey]

Havent you seen the improved Andre Miller?? But seriously,They got Fisher to come off the bench and do that, not to mention Kobe, Vujajacic, Walton, Rad... I'd think they would be ok with Miller.

[sixerswillrule]

Well who can they give us along with Farmar? And would a combo of Lou and Farmar at PG be enough for us, a team that's looking to contend withing the next few years.

[jmon]

EDIT: didn't see page 2 on orig post. oops

This discussion doesn't even get into the problems that could face the Sixers the following offseason. Although much in the future, contracts will be identical w/their 8-10.5% raises typically.(no one expires except min contracts). And if they were to take back a player making say 5 million... it would hamper their flexibility in that offseason since they likely would go over the tax if these used their full MLE twice.(12 million)

Just to complicate things a little more.

[jmon]

I see people talking about contracts. I typically use storytellers or espn trade machine. I find them to be more accurate.

storytellers: http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/r ... laries.htm

[tk76]

I agree with Geiger. I have a hunch that even more than teams trying to clear money for 2010 (the Summer of Lebron) teams will shy away from bigger contracts because of the economy. A lot of the original 20M deals are expiring soon (AI, JO, Kidd) and I think the economy will scare most teams from taking on long term deals. Teams are owned by either large companies or the rich. Both groups took a beating this year and are battening down the hatches moving forward. In a deflationary environment...

I'm sure teams would love to get Miller and his 10M expiring in exchange for a non-star with a long term deal. But I have a hunch that the Sixers would prefer to just let Miller'd contract expire. They might try to resign him for 2 years and less money, but likely he will go elsewhere. I expect this team is not viewed by Comcast as close enough to contending to really dig deep, especially if it means heading anywhere near the Luxury Tax.

We all like to focus on building a winner, and for the most part the Sixers have tried. Just don't expect too much more in terms of spending for a few years. Things would be different if they can get out from under Sam and Evans contracts, but that just is not likely to happen. I hope i am wrong.

[jmon]

tk, I agree. I would modify it slightly.(if modified at all)

Right now the economy is everyone's excuse. NBA owners are no different. They won't not spend because they can't. They won't spend because they can get away with it.

[dbodner]

I see people talking about contracts. I typically use storytellers or espn trade machine. I find them to be more accurate.

storytellers: http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/r ... laries.htm

I agree. Storytellers is the best IMO.

[geiger]

Bodner, Jmon, TK, thanks as usual. Valuable info from all of you.

Bodner, he's a question - if attendance keeps going down, and if sales of merchandise keep going down while the salaries went up, will that have a big or a fairly negligible impact on the metric they use for the cap, or is that not public? In other words, is there a way to know what percentage of the revenue is from the TV deal, which as I understood your explanation, is set irrespective of add time, and what percentage is from the gate and merchandise sales? Because if it's mostly from TV and TV revenue in the contract, goes up from year to year, than it makes sense that the cap goes up this season before going down by 2010 as the experts are claiming (especially if there is a new deal, etc.). Do they more or less disclose their figures at year's end - at least to the teams, so as to allow the GMs to make educated guesses on the approximate number of the cap or on rolling basis, so they can try to make decisions at the deadline, or is it pretty much make moves at your own risk?

[bebopdeluxe]

geiger:

I really like Miller to CLE for West and Snow...only thing is I really don't understand the Cavs interest in Miller's expiring - you would think we would be trading him to a team that wants that...and with Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson still there, I wouldn't think that Miller would be resigning there.

I wish I had a better sense of how a healthy Hinrich would fit in here.

[PhilasFinest]

Millers play has been pretty stellar as of late, BUT there were times in the Houston games especially when he wasnt on the court and Lou was and we were playing pretty well also.

IMO, If his stock is rising, Trade him for the best offer.... i wouldnt risk the chance of him bouncing and leaving us without anything next year.

[geiger]

I think Cleveland would look at Miller more in terms of winning a title this season and not in terms of long term viability. They give up West for Miller and it's not a big loss to them if Miller doesn't come back and they win a title and they don't have West, especially considering they are willing to trade Wally for a long term, huge contract as well or mutliple players to make themselves a title team.

[dbodner]

I'm honestly not sure of the % from tv and from sales/gate receipts. I'm not sure if that information's public. But, overall, attendance isn't down, so it's a bit of a moot point. I'm not sure what merchandise sales is at though.

[geiger]

Why are all these people so sure that the cap will go down by 2010 then? Is it when the TV deal expires? If so, I assume they are projecting a smaller deal in light of the lower commercial revenues caused by the bad economy.

[geiger]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=10646

Don't know how accurate that is, but they seem to indicate that while salaries went up this season over last, attendance is down, and supposedly concesions and other sales are down as well.

[Skates]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=10646

Don't know how accurate that is, but they seem to indicate that while salaries went up this season over last, attendance is down, and supposedly concesions and other sales are down as well.

The other question with attendance is how much are people paying for their seats. A lot of teams, including the Sixers, are offering decent discounts on tickets to try and get attendance up. Even if the salary cap goes up, I think a lot of temas will impose a lower cap on themselves until the economy turns around.

As for the Cleveland idea, do they really need a PG like Miller. Despite hitting a few threes lately, he is more passer than shooter and usually needs to have the ball to be effective since he rarely shoots coming off of screens. I am just not sure he is a fit in their system.

[geiger]

I'm not sure if they'll do that. The cap is what the cap is. I think most teams will spend up to the cap limit, and some will spend up to the luxury tax. There certainly will be more teams willing to stay close to or even slightly under the cap in preparation for 2010, and I doubt anyone will voluntarily sign players that will put them into luxury tax territory.

I'm just not as optimistic as DBodner, based on what I've read, that the cap will go up another 10% next season, in spite of all these grim economic reports. Than again, he has a better understanding of the intricacies of the cap than I do.

As far as Cleveland, the honest answer is I don't know. I thought that part of the problem they had in the playoffs is that they didn't have enough guys other than LeBron who could get their own shot, and that he was forced to be too much of a playmaker at times, instead of focusing on scoring. Putting Miller at the point gives them the flexibility to rely more on LeBron to score and do less playmaking, as well as to allow Williams and/or Gibson to purely spot up more often. Plus, Miller would probably be the second best scorer on that team and he can also get his own shot - especially with all the attention LeBron is likely to get. But that's just my opinion and history is not on my side. Teams like Lakers, Bulls, Miami, and Cleveland, tend to want to keep the ball more in the hands of Kobe, Jordan, Wade, and LeBron and not have PGs doing the distributing. It's just the Bulls also had Pippen to distribute the rock, and Miami and the Lakers had a dominant low post scorer - Z is good, but he's no Shaq in his prime.