geiger wrote:Except that he might want longer than 2 years and what exactly is a reasonable amount? You expect him to take less money to stay here? He doesn't fit in particularly well with Brand. Never has. He can't run the pick and roll. He's a nice player though, but it's a huge risk to go into free agency without being sure that he wants to be back and will take a two year contract at reasonable money that would allow us to use the MLE and our first round pick without being a luxury tax team.
There's a good chance he will come at a discount over what he would typically get. I don't mean a discount to re-sign here, I just mean a discount in general because I doubt there's going to be a lot of team lining up to offer him a huge deal (years or $$). With so many teams holding onto cap space for 2010, that takes some teams out of the mix. Then factor in a lot of teams already have their starting PG and how many teams does that leave? If some of these teams are in rebuilds, I doubt they will be situations that Miller wants to go to at this stage of his career.
Teams that I can't see having any interest in Miller are Boston, New Jersey, Toronto, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, Charlotte, Cleveland, Washington, Orlando, New Orleans, San Antonio, Denver, Oklahoma City, Utah, LA Clippers and Phoenix. All those teams have their young future PG or a guy better currently than Miller.
That leaves these teams...
1 - NY Knicks - are they blowing their FA $$ on Miller. No way. They are out
2 - Milwaukee - set to be well over the cap next year so unless they get expirings, it won't happen.
3 -Atlanta - Bibby is a FA, would they prefer Miller over trying to re-sign Bibby?
4 - Miami - another team not looking to sign anyone (unless it's a stud - Boozer?) to long term deals before 2010.
5 - Dallas - Kidd is a FA - again, do they go after Miller vs. trying to retain Kidd? Over the cap anyhow.
6 - Houston - Alston stinks, but I think they will be over the cap too so can they make an offer?
7 - Memphis - do they give up on Conley (should IMO, he sucks). Is Miller a good fit there? Don't see it.
8 - Minnesota - do they give in and say Foye can't play the point? Another young team...does Miller fit?
9 - Portland - they will still have Blake, Bayless and Sergio under contract. Don't see Miller as a target for them.
10 - Golden St. - do they trade/dump Ellis or anyone else? If not, the won't have the cap space.
11 - LA Lakers - way over the cap. No chance they could sign him for more than the MLE.
12 - Sacramento - they signed Udrih to a long term deal and are over the cap as of now. Don't see the fit.
That's the 29 teams besides us.
Out of that list I would say VERY FEW are legit locations for Miller. I'd say the only teams that could even pull it off if they wanted to (and I doubt some do) are Atlanta, Miami, Memphis, Minnesota, Portland, Sacrmaento and us. I really don't see Memphis, Minnesota or Sacramento being of interest to Miller (or them in him).
So that leaves just Atlanta, Miami (Chalmers is a nice player, they may just stay with him since Wade does most of the ball handling anyhow) and Portland. Are any of those teams throwing a big offer Miller's way? Not likely. Of course teams can make moves that may change the current makeup of their team between now and FA, but I think the reality is that guys like Bibby, Miller and Kidd may just resign with their current teams because they will the the ones who can offer the best deals. With not a lot of options for those guys, their price should be down some. Is 7-8 mil/yr too much in your eyes?