Beyond EJ- Time for the Nuclear Option

[tk76]

We all know EJ is a disaster and ES is probably a financially castrated GM who will not be here for that much longer (his 2 big moves of Brand and EJ have been epic failures and his team is capped out.)

The team is already horrible... Time to look at the big picture and decide what of this team is salvageable. Time to face the facts:

Right now:
Bad and mostly too young (19-23) and up against the tax. So winning anything in the next 2 years is out the window.

2-4 years from now:
-Sam/Green/Kapono gone. Sounds great! But 8M goes to Brand/Iguodala's expanding salaries. The rest to Young.
-Young core now 21-25...ready to enter their prime... Sounds great!
-Iguodala and Brand on the books for 30M and 34M: 50% of the Cap! No way to add to this roster despite clearing off those bad contracts.
...So the only possible way that team wins is if a rookie scale guy is a superstar (Say John Wall or someone similar.)

---

So are we willing to waste away the NEXT 3-4 YEARS?

I can see only one conclusion...


Trade away both Iguodala and Brand. Do whatever is necessary to get out from those contracts- even if it costs talent and leaves the team a disgrace. As long as you hold onto 1st round picks.

... Because waiting 4 years is not an option.

Of course if you can move Brand alson then great- but I doubt that is an option.

[Welfare Fraud]

I wouldn't have a problem going nuclear, as long as we don't lose Thad, Speights or Jrue in the process.

If one of them are in a deal then we need something better than just cap relief in return.

[sec-106]

I almost hate to say this because I've loved EB long before he got here, but I try to move him and AI2.

Having said that, it doesn't mean snot if Stefanski and Jordan are retained.

I have not felt this low about this team since the "Stormin' Morman" days.

[sec-106]

as long as we don't lose Thad, Speights or Jrue in the process.

Those are the guys I (re)build around, too.

[Mojo7]

We all know EJ is a disaster and ES is probably a financially castrated GM who will not be here for that much longer (his 2 big moves of Brand and EJ have been epic failures and his team is capped out.)

The team is already horrible... Time to look at the big picture and decide what of this team is salvageable. Time to face the facts:

Right now:
Bad and mostly too young (19-23) and up against the tax. So winning anything in the next 2 years is out the window.

2-4 years from now:
-Sam/Green/Kapono gone. Sounds great! But 8M goes to Brand/Iguodala's expanding salaries. The rest to Young.
-Young core now 21-25...ready to enter their prime... Sounds great!
-Iguodala and Brand on the books for 30M and 34M: 50% of the Cap! No way to add to this roster despite clearing off those bad contracts.
...So the only possible way that team wins is if a rookie scale guy is a superstar (Say John Wall or someone similar.)

---

So are we willing to waste away the NEXT 3-4 YEARS?

I can see only one conclusion...


Trade away both Iguodala and Brand. Do whatever is necessary to get out from those contracts- even if it costs talent and leaves the team a disgrace. As long as you hold onto 1st round picks.

... Because waiting 4 years is not an option.

Of course if you can move Brand alson then great- but I doubt that is an option.

I picked no Nuke

Here is my thing: Coming into this year, I already figured they'd be 2-3 years away anyway, because the majority of the core that would make the run won't enter their primes until then. Plus, after this year, the team would have about $20M in expiring deals to get complementary pieces. This year was supposed to be about preparing for that by developing the youth and seeing what's needed. Really, last year should've been about that too. Once Brand went down, they should've moved Miller for anything, up to and including conditional picks, that might get you another asset later. Last year, they should've been playing Lou, Dala, Thad, Speights & Sam primarily. If that team makes the playoffs, so be it.

Still, i didn't expect them to fall off the map this season, mainly because I had no idea just how bad EJ is at coaching. He is a gaping wound that leaks wins. Nevertheless, my 2-3 yr time table hasn't moved. Nor has my core of Dala, Thad, Speights & Lou. The only change is that Jrue is now the PG of the Future for me, with Lou as the supersub. I'd like to see them grow together, and evaluate at that point

Bottomline for me is that the team has assets starting after this summer. Green, Sam & Kapono's deals are ending, making them valuable enough to potentially steal an asset from somebody whose having a firesale. No reason to blow it all up. Start with the coach and the Prez/GM.

I'll repeat something I said elsewhere regarding moving Iguodala:

I'd agree with you if Dre were 28, like Joe Johnson. Then I could see moving him on to clear room for "the next gen." But he's just 25.

For perspective, Roy is 25 and just signed an even bigger deal that hasn't kicked in yet. Carmelo is 25. Granger is 26, Bosh is 25, Devin Harris is 26, Gordon is 26, Deron Williams is 25.

I'd agree with moving Brand and going forward with a youth movement spearheaded by Iguodala.

And I do agree that the big mistake was keeping Miller and Smith. King was trying to keep his job and he screwed up.

Like King, Ed was trying to retool on the fly and failed.

Also, It might be possible to move Brand, if he can keep getting near a double-double despite Jordan. One possible spot is CLE, who is so desperate to keep LeBron that they might bite on it. Big Z plus Hickson would do it, per the Trade Machine. Or if they want to move Shaq instead, we could add Kapono.

In any case, no reason to go Nuke yet, especially when the cause of this Season of Discontent is licking his braces right now.

[tk76]

Mojo- assume we can't move Brand. here are your 2 options come Summer 2011 IMO:

1. Jrue(21)/Lou(25)/Speights(24)/Young(23)/Smith(24)/Carney(25) and two top 6 picks along with gobs of cap space (30M+!)

2. That core above plus Iguodala and Brand and 5-8M of cap space. Iguodala at 13.5M/14.7M/16M going forward. And Brand at 17M/18M(at least a big expiring...) Those contracts and Young's 8M cap hold get me to that meager amount under the cap.

Which option do you prefer? Which gives you the best chance to make additional moves to land a superstar?

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

You already know my position: No to trading Brand;say good bye to Iggy

Brand has shown himself to be a 20/10 player if he gets PT and minutes. Plus, it'll be difficult to trade him anyway. Danny Ferry's dumb, but not Billy King.

Trade Iggy, for any youth package. Iggy may be "25", but he's one of those "25" guys that have no upside left. What you get from Iggy now, is what your going to get when he's 26, 27, 28.

Youth, Expirings, Picks=Successful deal

[tk76]

You already know my position: No to trading Brand;say good bye to Iggy

Brand has always been a win now signing. Having a 31-34 year old vet making 15M/16M/17M/18M clogging up your cap is no way to build around a young core. I guess in 4 years he'll be a valuable 18M expiring who can still help a good team...

[Mojo7]

Mojo- assume we can't move Brand. here are your 2 options come Summer 2011 IMO:

1. Jrue(21)/Lou(25)/Speights(24)/Young(23)/Smith(24)/Carney(25) and two top 6 picks along with gobs of cap space (30M+!)

2. That core above plus Iguodala and Brand and 5-8M of cap space. Iguodala at 13.5M/14.7M/16M going forward. And Brand at 17M/18M(at least a big expiring...) Those contracts and Young's 8M cap hold get me to that meager amount under the cap.

Which option do you prefer? Which gives you the best chance to make additional moves to land a superstar?

1st, did we already extend Thad? Or do we intentionally hold his deal off just for that summer.
2nd, Carmelo has an ETO, so does JR Smith and Nene(Jason Smith's Brother in Law, btw). Other than that, the unrestricted market is pretty dry. And I doubt Melo leaves Denver, unless all hell breaks loose. Smith, maybe, but I think he knows where his bread is buttered, plus they have a chance to contend already there.

There are some interested Restricted, but that's a crapshoot anyway. Besides, most of the worthy ones will resign anyway.

The only way you'd land a superstar type would be a Garnett-type trade using the goo-gobs of cap space plus one of the kids. However, what stud will be so disgruntled that they will want out that badly? The only guy I could see right now might be Paul, maybe. And that's stretching it, with his loyalty issues.

Are we assuming in option 2 that DiLeo found yet another Diamond in a position of need(which would be a Big/Def Anchor type) between now and then? He's hit 3 in a row now, so that would be a safe assumption.

So, your scenario is this:

Keep Dala & Brand, let the kids(including Diamond to be named later) continue to develop and use the $5-8 million to complement the core, which by then might include two legit primary scorers(Thad & M16),, a true PG to run the show(Jrue), instant offense off the bench(Lou) & a superversatile playmaker/defender/finisher who brings it together(Dala).

Or blow it up, have 2 top 6 picks(likely quality players at G and C), and hope that either a superstar currently gets so pissed at his current situation that he forces his way out, or else keep building with the kids?

I'll take option one, because I believe Iguodala should be a part of this team's future.

[tk76]

I'm not trying to minimize what Iguodala brings. I call it the nuclear option for a reason. You detroy any chance of winning for a long time in the hope that starting from scratch is better than being painted into a corner with expanding contracts.

Iguodala may not be horribly overpaid when he makes 15M and 16M, and he'll be in his prime. But I do think he will be overpaid, and you may need to somehow make a three way deal using Iguodala's contract in order to unload Brand.

[Mojo7]

I'm not trying to minimize what Iguodala brings. I call it the nuclear option for a reason. You detroy any chance of winning for a long time in the hope that starting from scratch is better than being painted into a corner with expanding contracts.

Iguodala may not be horribly overpaid when he makes 15M and 16M, and he'll be in his prime. But I do think he will be overpaid, and you may need to somehow make a three way deal using Iguodala's contract in order to unload Brand.

I think unloading Brand should be the priority, and move on from there. Am I convinced that they need to move Dre to move Brand? Not yet. Especially given just how epically bad the coach is. I'd like to see this group under at least an average coach before making any proclamations.

As far as trading Brand, I'd look at CLE as a possible spot, since they are on LeBron Watch. I might look at GS, if you can get Randolph, even considering taking back Maggette(for a buyout).

[tk76]

Magette is on the books as long as Brand, so that only saves you 4-8M per year.

Again, I don't disagree just moving Brand is a better idea. I just don't see it happening. or more likely it happens along with a big chunk of overpaid garbage coming back. And that overpaid junk is what would make Iguodala's huge back end (contract) be an ongoing noose.

[Mojo7]

Magette is on the books as long as Brand, so that only saves you 4-8M per year.

Again, I don't disagree just moving Brand is a better idea. I just don't see it happening. or more likely it happens along with a big chunk of overpaid garbage coming back. And that overpaid junk is what would make Iguodala's huge back end (contract) be an ongoing noose.

True, but I'd at least think about it if you are adding Randolph to that young core, which is the only way I'd ever bring in Maggette.

I understand your premise, I am just saying it is a bit reactionary right now. If Brand regresses to being an albatross on and off the court, then maybe. But he's been producing of late, which makes me think that if he were in a more effective system, he might be better and more consistent. If that is the case, then he could be moved. For the last 5 games, he's averaged 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1.2 blks in just 29 mpg. That's 19 ppg, 9 rpg and 1.5 blks in 36 min. If he can maintain that level until the all-star break, then he becomes more palatable for some teams in Win-Now move

[sec-106]

Really would have liked to see what this squad could have done with a real GD coach.

[tk76]

For the last 5 games, he's averaged 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1.2 blks in just 29 mpg. That's 19 ppg, 9 rpg and 1.5 blks in 36 min. If he can maintain that level until the all-star break, then he becomes more palatable for some teams in Win-Now move

I hope he becomes movable. I see his production right now as similar to when CWebb was the Western Conference player of the month right before he came to the Sixers (put up 21/9.7/5.5 on Sac prior to the trade, but you could tell he had no lidt). Brand's contract is huge AND I do not think he is the type of impact player those near 20/10 numbers suggest. he can be a solid and productive player, but he's far from the star he once was.

EJ is a loser, but there is some truth to what he says about the difference between producing in short spurts against scrubs vs producing 35 min/game as a starter.... Brand should be starting (next to Speights) and can be a nice piece- but nothing close to warrant the PhillyMax.

[sixerswillrule]

Magette is on the books as long as Brand, so that only saves you 4-8M per year.

Again, I don't disagree just moving Brand is a better idea. I just don't see it happening. or more likely it happens along with a big chunk of overpaid garbage coming back. And that overpaid junk is what would make Iguodala's huge back end (contract) be an ongoing noose.

True, but I'd at least think about it if you are adding Randolph to that young core, which is the only way I'd ever bring in Maggette.

I understand your premise, I am just saying it is a bit reactionary right now. If Brand regresses to being an albatross on and off the court, then maybe. But he's been producing of late, which makes me think that if he were in a more effective system, he might be better and more consistent. If that is the case, then he could be moved. For the last 5 games, he's averaged 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1.2 blks in just 29 mpg. That's 19 ppg, 9 rpg and 1.5 blks in 36 min. If he can maintain that level until the all-star break, then he becomes more palatable for some teams in Win-Now move

I completely agree. We just need to hope that Brand continues to play well. If he does, someone's gotta bite. Who knows, maybe Cleveland will trade us Ilgauskas for him. 2011 expirings would be just fine, though.

[Mojo7]

For the last 5 games, he's averaged 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1.2 blks in just 29 mpg. That's 19 ppg, 9 rpg and 1.5 blks in 36 min. If he can maintain that level until the all-star break, then he becomes more palatable for some teams in Win-Now move

I hope he becomes movable. I see his production right now as similar to when CWebb was the Western Conference player of the month right before he came to the Sixers. Brand's contract is huge AND I do not think he is the type of impact player those near 20/10 numbers suggest. he can be a solid and productive player, but he's far from the star he once was.

EJ is a loser, but there is some truth to what he says about the difference between producing in short spurts against scrubs vs producing 35 min/game as a starter.... Brand should be starting (next to Speights) and can be a nice piece- but nothing close to warrant the PhillyMax.

Here is the difference, to me. With the 2nd unit, Brand is playing the C, which has him getting the rock in his comfort zones and in attack positions. With the 1st unit, Jordan's "system" has him playing traffic cop behind the arc half the time. He's played better now, especially since they got AI, because they scrapped the system and played basic NBA hoops.

As far as his comps, he has been producing against starters as well as backups, since he is finishing games. Besides, the 4 games before he went to the bench against GSW, he averaged 15 and 9 with 2 blks in 39.5 mpg. Not much different

[tk76]

Fair points. i would like to see him as the center and Speights at PF in the starting line-up. It would at least make for better basketball then seeing how quickly Sam can accumulate 2 quick fouls.

[Mojo7]

For the last 5 games, he's averaged 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1.2 blks in just 29 mpg. That's 19 ppg, 9 rpg and 1.5 blks in 36 min. If he can maintain that level until the all-star break, then he becomes more palatable for some teams in Win-Now move

I hope he becomes movable. I see his production right now as similar to when CWebb was the Western Conference player of the month right before he came to the Sixers (put up 21/9.7/5.5 on Sac prior to the trade, but you could tell he had no lidt). Brand's contract is huge AND I do not think he is the type of impact player those near 20/10 numbers suggest. he can be a solid and productive player, but he's far from the star he once was.

EJ is a loser, but there is some truth to what he says about the difference between producing in short spurts against scrubs vs producing 35 min/game as a starter.... Brand should be starting (next to Speights) and can be a nice piece- but nothing close to warrant the PhillyMax.

The Cavs are in the same situation as the Sixers were in when they made the Webber trade. Desperate to make a title run around their star that they will make any move to make it work.

[Mojo7]

Fair points. i would like to see him as the center and Speights at PF in the starting line-up. It would at least make for better basketball then seeing how quickly Sam can accumulate 2 quick fouls.

I would agree with you, if we had a coach that would demand better defense from Speights. In that regard, I sometimes miss DiLeo's short leash. Brand is a better coach for Speights than Jordan is.

Though if this were a smart franchise, Speights would not be playing until at least January.