Beyond EJ- Time for the Nuclear Option

[Mojo7]

Mojo, I guess your right that the last 10 years have been less dominated by home grown superstars. Maybe you are right that the CBA has shifted the equation to where more stars are traded in their prime. Certainly the KG, Shaq, Sheed and Gasol trades shifted the competitive balance of the league.

But, as I've said befoer, you need cap space, picks and expirings to make those trades. the Sixers have 2 of the 3, but the big contracts will make it hard to make a move and stay under the tax.

Repost:

That would be where moving Brand becomes paramount, especially before 2011. As you said, moving his deal means you have a young team with $20M in capspace. Depending on the coach, you could be termed as "up and coming", especially if you can get a defensive anchor between now and then(unless the move itself is finding that player).

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

Do any of you SERIOUSLY think we'll be able to move Elton Brand? Even if we do you can forget getting a good package for him. It'll be 25 cents on the dollar, we may not even get a significant boost for 2011.

If your a GM and you wanna actually build something, you trade Iguodala who has no place on this team. He's a SF, the only way he can play SG is if he constantly attacks the basket and over-powers guards. To this, he fails miserably(at least, for the first 42 minutes).

I'm sorry, Thaddeus Young will command an Iggy-salary at the very least! He'll be 23 years old, off of several years of 15+ PPG Scoring.

IS:I've looked at the top-lotto teams and many of them have the wing-position fairly covered.

So it'll be hard to swing a deal for Iggy that results in say a top-5 pick. But if we get expirings and a top-ten for Iggy, I pull the trigger.

[ChuckS]

[quote] "ChuckS, I definitely understand where your going... but no matter how you look at it the odds are stacked against you in the NBA."


I suppose it is immaterial to me. I am pretty set in my ways. I believe you get better by adding more good players to your already good players and get rid of the bad -- not the good. I think rarely (LBJ and his like) can you win with young players until they get older, and I think we have too many already. We couldn't be more unalterably opposed. I never could advocate tanking. I was trained to believe that everyone in an organization does everything legal and possible to try to win every game. I'm also not a gambler and will not trust to luck.

I tell myself I am open minded, and really believe I strongly consider opposite views, but I still worry. A guy named Elbert Hubbard said: "The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.” It's possible I am too often too satisfied and too content.

Having said all that, I believe to each his own. I just think that saying that 70% or even 45% of champions got a superstar in the lottery makes it sound like pretty good odds. I have great faith in the intelligence of board members, but just hope they realize the real odds for dumping our best players and hoping to get lucky in the lottery are heavily stacked in favor of a nuclear basketball winter...in my not mathematically verified opinion.

[tk76]

Not to be gloomy on Christmas, but odds are bad for this team for the next 4 years regardless of what you do. If you have to choose between build around Brand/Iguodala and blowing it up I'd say Neither are enticing options- but the franchise is in a bad position right now.

I've never been one to say Finals or bust. I'd be very happy being a fan of a team like the Eagles or Jazz who consistent win but can't get a ring. But I feel most likely these next four years standing pat does not mean good. It means more of mediocre, with little chance at excellence. So I'm willing to throw away mediocre and risk being lousy for a least a shot at building towards a consistent winner.

As I see it, if you keep Brand and Iguodala then in the next four years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: <1% (You'd have to strike gold in this year's draft and have everyone develop)
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5%
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 15%
- more than one 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 60%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 20% (injuries and or poor player development)

If you move Brand +/- Iguodala (ideally just Brand) then in the next 4 years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: 3-5% (a combination of a stud from the draft and a superstar trade/signing in 2011). Then you'd be good for a while.
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5% (probably won't be really good until 3 years from now)
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 5%%
- 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 35%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 50% (injuries and or poor player development)
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So basically you can take a huge risk and most likely end up a a loser instead of average... or you can stand pat and have a much lower ceiling and be stuck in the same boat you are now. I do not think stading pat can lead you to a consistent winner given this roster and the salary cap.

[Mojo7]

Not to be gloomy on Christmas, but odds are bad for this team for the next 4 years regardless of what you do. If you have to choose between build around Brand/Iguodala and blowing it up I'd say Neither are enticing options- but the franchise is in a bad position right now.

I've never been one to say Finals or bust. I'd be very happy being a fan of a team like the Eagles or Jazz who consistent win but can't get a ring. But I feel most likely these next four years standing pat does not mean good. It means more of mediocre, with little chance at excellence. So I'm willing to throw away mediocre and risk being lousy for a least a shot at building towards a consistent winner.

As I see it, if you keep Brand and Iguodala then in the next four years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: <1% (You'd have to strike gold in this year's draft and have everyone develop)
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5%
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 15%
- more than one 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 60%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 20% (injuries and or poor player development)

If you move Brand +/- Iguodala (ideally just Brand) then in the next 4 years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: 3-5% (a combination of a stud from the draft and a superstar trade/signing in 2011). Then you'd be good for a while.
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5% (probably won't be really good until 3 years from now)
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 5%%
- 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 35%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 50% (injuries and or poor player development)
---

So basically you can take a huge risk and most likely end up a a loser instead of average... or you can stand pat and have a much lower ceiling and be stuck in the same boat you are now. I do not think stading pat can lead you to a consistent winner given this roster and the salary cap.

Yes. I'd mostly agree with that. IMO, The keys to the team's progression to that contender level are with Jrue, Thad and Speights. Once they play at a consistently effective level in their niches, then Iguodala is freed from having to be the Leading Scorer. I believe that those 3 will be the bellwether for the team going forward.

I thought that about Thad before Brand was signed, which is why I had reservations. However, I capitulated, thinking that they could win now and win later.

Though, I don't think Brand will be here throughout his contract. 3 summers from now, he becomes a soon-to-be EC. So that is the longest term he'd be here, if not less. As I said before, an easy way to get that possible top pick stud is to keep Jordan this year, let him wreck havoc, and take the guaranteed lottery pick as a result. This team will be a bottom-feeder, guaranteed. That high lotto pick, hopefully the defensive anchor, will also be part of the core.

IMO, they have 4 starters and a key reserve in the young core. Your doomsday probability will come true if that core doesn't reach their potential or they fail to find that Defensive Anchor

[tk76]

I've been for "The Process" since 2009 Archival post from 2009. I feel like 8 years later and we are finally starting to reap the benefits of a forward thinking organization.

We all know EJ is a disaster and ES is probably a financially castrated GM who will not be here for that much longer (his 2 big moves of Brand and EJ have been epic failures and his team is capped out.)

The team is already horrible... Time to look at the big picture and decide what of this team is salvageable. Time to face the facts:

Right now:
Bad and mostly too young (19-23) and up against the tax. So winning anything in the next 2 years is out the window.

2-4 years from now:
-Sam/Green/Kapono gone. Sounds great! But 8M goes to Brand/Iguodala's expanding salaries. The rest to Young.
-Young core now 21-25...ready to enter their prime... Sounds great!
-Iguodala and Brand on the books for 30M and 34M: 50% of the Cap! No way to add to this roster despite clearing off those bad contracts.
...So the only possible way that team wins is if a rookie scale guy is a superstar (Say John Wall or someone similar.)

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So are we willing to waste away the NEXT 3-4 YEARS?

I can see only one conclusion...


Trade away both Iguodala and Brand. Do whatever is necessary to get out from those contracts- even if it costs talent and leaves the team a disgrace. As long as you hold onto 1st round picks.

... Because waiting 4 years is not an option.

Of course if you can move Brand alson then great- but I doubt that is an option.