Hollinger Playoff Odds

[Charlie78]

Dont know if anyone else saw this. Despite having better best and worst records than the Jazz and Houston, as well as having the same projected record and already owning the tiebreaker against the Jazz. He has us out side looking in. I dont think it is asking alot when we are a full 4 games ahead in the loss column that we would have a better chance. Especially since it is supposed to be based solely on numbers and yet we still get no respect. Unbeleivable. Anyone got John's email, I have to heckle him.

[Mr Odd]

Dont know if anyone else saw this. Despite having better best and worst records than the Jazz and Houston, as well as having the same projected record and already owning the tiebreaker against the Jazz. He has us out side looking in. I dont think it is asking alot when we are a full 4 games ahead in the loss column that we would have a better chance. Especially since it is supposed to be based solely on numbers and yet we still get no respect. Unbeleivable. Anyone got John's email, I have to heckle him.

Yea, he was on the FAN & stated that. You cant
bust his chops to much, hes going by history.. .
The Jazz did very well last year, however it was
last year and last time I checked its a new season!!

[mojomarc]

Dont know if anyone else saw this. Despite having better best and worst records than the Jazz and Houston, as well as having the same projected record and already owning the tiebreaker against the Jazz. He has us out side looking in. I dont think it is asking alot when we are a full 4 games ahead in the loss column that we would have a better chance. Especially since it is supposed to be based solely on numbers and yet we still get no respect. Unbeleivable. Anyone got John's email, I have to heckle him.

You did read how this is constructed, don't you? They run computer simulations of 5000 seasons and take the average return. Even though we have a better best and better worst, that doesn't mean our average must be better; rather, it just means that in this case, our curve isn't a pure bell curve. Furthermore, the system uses regression to the mean. In other words, we've been really hot, but we're unlikely to continue to be that hot, and thus we're more likely to lose slightly more often than we might otherwise do because it's unlikely that we will get to play 75% of our games at home over the rest of the season. It assumes we're winning at a rate higher than we will for the full season.

So why do Houston and Utah move ahead of us in this ranking? Primarily because we've played 19 of our 34 games at home (56%), while Utah and Houston have played more games on the road and yet are within shouting distance of us (Utah has played only 15 of their 35 games at home (43%), and Houston 14 of 34 (41%)). It only makes sense that as they play more home games and we play more road games that if you were going to project out a season you'd think that they would both be able to close the gap significantly with us. Between the regression to the mean and the fact that teams generally win more home games than road games, this projection seems totally legit. On top of that, this being Hollinger, he is probably looking a lot at point differential, as that is how he comes by predicted wins. Notice that of the three teams, even though we have a better winning percentage we still have the lowest point differential. Utah is at +3.7, Houston +1.1, and even though we're 21-13 we're a paltry +.9. A +.9 would normally give you a projected win rate for the season of less than 45 wins, so his model is predicting better than that. You may disagree with the weightings, but this is the same conclusion I've had for the last few weeks as we've been in the streak and after when I was thinking it would still be very difficult for us to make the playoffs.

In other words, it appears that Hollinger's model is quite logical, and there is probably nothing you can heckle him about. About the only thing that I might question is that it has Utah projected with the same record as us and Utah getting to the playoffs, even though the first tie-breaker is head-to head play. Other than that, you can disagree with certain weights he places on the various parts of the record, but I would suggest before "heckling" him you come up with your own regression analysis and re-run it 5000 times and see what you come up with before you do.

[Mr Odd]

mojo - Stop making long nice well
thought out posts with facts after my
posts. It makes me look even more
like a idiot!! Not that its hard to do.. .

[mojomarc]

mojo - Stop making long nice well
thought out posts with facts after my
posts. It makes me look even more
like a idiot!! Not that its hard to do.. .

Sorry, Odd--next time I'll try not to show you up so badly

[BlackMamba]

wow, too much info for the moment, but thanks for the explanation.

[Charlie78]

I do understand how he put it together. But my main point is that the projected record is the same and we own the tiebreaker. Yet we are outside looking in. I see nowhere an average record so I am assuming the projected is the average. I also do understand that we have had more home games than those teams. However we also have a better Home and Road winning percentage than Utah.

[mojomarc]

I do understand how he put it together. But my main point is that the projected record is the same and we own the tiebreaker. Yet we are outside looking in. I see nowhere an average record so I am assuming the projected is the average. I also do understand that we have had more home games than those teams. However we also have a better Home and Road winning percentage than Utah.

And I pointed out that the tiebreaker is the only thing questionable, but that's hardly a reason to heckle a guy.

In terms of the projections, Utah's record at home is tied with ours in the loss column, and while their road record is worse percentage wise, even if you assume we keep the same pace on the road as we have done all season we're still only projecting a win ahead of them there. Also, you have to remember that the 5000 times through the season was simulated, which means that each one of the games was judged individually each time. While our schedule sucks hard over the next two months, Utah has only three road games in all of January (and one is against the Clips, an almost certain win) and the other two are Denver and Houston, two games they can win. In February, they play 8 of 13 on the road, but listen to this murderers row of opponents:

Washington
Memphis
Denver
Sacramento
Seattle
Clippers
Minnesota
New Orleans

On average, I would be the simulation comes back at least 5-3 on average, if not 6-2. In other words, they project out great on the road in the next couple of months, being at minimum a .500 team unless they completely collapse (something a simulation can't take into account). After our horrible road schedule this month and next, there is virtually no way we have a better road record.

So while I hear what you're saying, the projection still looks pretty darned accurate other than not taking into account the tiebreaker, and for all we know they could have put the tiebreaker stuff in manually before the last Utah game.

[Charlie78]

I understand mojo. Your still sitting on the fence while I have the full rose tinted bodysuit going on right now. I know your not ready to be excited yet and thats cool. But I dont think it is unreasonable to think that is screwed up. I dont know what else people are waiting for. We have passed any number of tests. Ill be a giant homer for all you guys who are not ready yet, just let me know cause this band wagons getting heavy.

[mojomarc]

I understand mojo. Your still sitting on the fence while I have the full rose tinted bodysuit going on right now. I know your not ready to be excited yet and thats cool. But I dont think it is unreasonable to think that is screwed up. I dont know what else people are waiting for. We have passed any number of tests. Ill be a giant homer for all you guys who are not ready yet, just let me know cause this band wagons getting heavy.

Well, I'm not a bandwagon fan, so I'm not too worried about how heavy it is. I'm just not yet convinced that we should wager the whole Rose Garden on 17 games out of an 82 game season when we haven't played a single top three in the West team during the stretch. Heck, in that stretch, we played only five out of the 17 games against teams that would qualify for the playoffs if they started today. Its great to win, and I'm sure the confidence built will help the team against better competition, but it isn't like we were playing the best teams out there.

I'm waiting to see how we do on this road trip. I'm waiting to see us play a true top team like San Antonio and not get blown out by 21 like we did the game before the streak started. I'm looking for us to consistently blow out bad teams instead of letting them hang with us for three quarters. I'm waiting to see a team that can consistently outrebound bad teams and score more than 20 ppg from the lane.

Don't get me wrong--I want the team to win and win big. I just have seen a team that tends to squeak by a lot of wins while living by the outside shot with a very limited ability to grab loose boards when the shots don't fall. That makes me skeptical that we're as good as our streak makes us look.

[Charlie78]

I think your underestimating this team mojo. The back to back wins early to DAL and DET have to count for something right. The fact that alot of our road losses have come against some of the toughest teams in the NBA combined home record for teams we have lost to on the road is 120-53. Thats 69%, I actually am more impressed after crunching the numbers, if you throw in the teams we beat it still works out to over 63% winning percentage for the teams we have played on the road. That is insane.

I guess it is just me being naturally excited. I havent been so in love with this team since the good old days, when you could walk down and stand by the lockerroom door and slap fives with guys like Drexler and Porter. Or when those same guys used to show up unannounced at my sister hospital without camera crews just becuase they liked doing nice things. I still remember what it was like trying to cram into godfathers pizza to watch games because it was the only place with blazer cable. Of course I also remember having the flags ready and the car going ready to ride around town and celebrate beating LA in the WCF only to have that bunch of meatheads lose the lead. I also remember the feeling of getting my first season tickets even though that team was awful three years ago, and taking my son to his first game when he was two weeks old. But most important to me I remember these guys making it fun to go to games agin where you expect to win and go to the playoffs. These guys who showed that things can get better with a little hard work and team play. I just love this team so much right now. I expect us to go to the playoffs and I expect us to put up a fight, but mostly Im just happy that when my son goes running around the house saying watch me Im brandon Roy I dont have to cringe and hope he doesnt get arrested.

[Yadadimean]

Our playoff odds are looking pretty good right now. Phoenix is completely DESTROYING Denver in the first quarter. We should be tied for 1st by the end of the night.

edit : 44-30 with 1 minute left IN THE FIRST QUARTER

[J~Rush]

Our playoff odds are looking pretty good right now. Phoenix is completely DESTROYING Denver in the first quarter. We should be tied for 1st by the end of the night.

edit : 44-30 with 1 minute left IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Playoff odds in January?

[Jsun947]

We're about 2:00 away from being first in the division again and 3rd in the conference.

[Yadadimean]

here we are...

[UGotThrilled]

JSun, If we win our division, we are only guaranteed 4th in conference (last year SA was ranked 3rd even though they didnt win their division)

[Jsun947]

Duh, thats what i meant = P