Bill Simmons - Dame is not the Blazer GOAT

[Effigy]

This assumes that the roster construction around these players was the same, when it absolutely was not. Walton and Drexler had far stronger casts than Lillard ever did.

Comparing accolades of Lillard and Drexler in Portland:

Top 10 MVP finishes:

Lillard: 5 (#4, #6, #7, #8, #8)
Drexler: 4 (#2, #5, #6, #10)

All-NBA voting:

Lillard: 7 (1 1st, 4 2nd, 2 3rd)
Drexler: 4 (1 1st, 2 2nd, 1 3rd)

Drexler has 0.775 MVP shares compared to 0.354 for Lillard. But Lillard has 3.64 All-NBA Voting shares compared to 2.107 for Drexler. It's important to note that the NBA didn't have an All-NBA 3rd team until 1989, but I'll note that Lillard generally played in a more competitive era for guards than Drexler did.

It's not easy to separate them in this way. Drexler's teams had greater team success (which I loved as this is when I became a fan of the team), but Drexler never had the anchors that are Neil Olshey and Joe Cronin weighing the team down.

Were their teams that much better though? None of these teams had any perennial all stars around the main guys. The guys that did make the team were your classic 'we only made the all-star team because we have a good record' types. The players on those teams were definitely good and solid, but not like the players on Dame's teams sucked either. They did get to a WCF.

And funny how you address the MVP comp with Drexler but ignore it for Walton. AND how you didn't answer the question, which I guess IS an answer in it's own way....

Yes, I think Drexler's teams really were better overall, by quite some distance. There are a few ways to measure this. None are perfect, but they paint a picture.

Looking at Portland's records without each player, as well as their SRS in those games, we have the following.

Portland without Drexler:

1985: 1-1, SRS 3.89
1986: 4-3, SRS 1.92
1988: 0-1, SRS -20.88
1989: 1-3, SRS -4.96
1990: 4-5, SRS -3.09
1992: 2-4, SRS -0.06
1993: 21-13, SRS 2.66
1994: 8-6, SRS 2.50

Overall: 41-36, SRS 1.01

Portland without Lillard:

2016: 4-3, SRS -1.53
2017: 3-4, SRS 2.26
2018: 5-4, SRS -2.37
2019: 2-0, SRS -2.10
2020: 2-7, SRS -4.71
2021: 3-2, SRS 2.18

Overall: 19-20, SRS -1.33

This is admittedly bumpy and based on small samples for each season, but combining across seasons we get an overall picture that Drexler's teams tended to be stronger. I've left off 2022 and 2023 for Lillard as this would give him a crazy boost as Portland deliberately tanked those seasons.

But before Portland tanked in 2022 and before Lillard was out for the season, Portland did this without him:

Lost by 29 at Denver 11/14/2021
Won by 18 against Detroit 11/30/2021
Lost by 31 to San Antonio 12/2/2021
Lost by 28 to Boston 12/4/2021
Lost by 12 to the Clippers 12/6/2021
Lost by 10 at Golden State 12/8/2021

That's a MOV of -15.33 against teams with an average SRS of 1.24.

Before he was shut down in 2023, Portland did this without him:

Won by 14 against Houston 10/28/2022
Lost by 5 against Memphis 11/2/2022
Won by 2 at Phoenix 11/4/2022
Lost by 20 at Phoenix 11/5/2022
Won by 11 at New Orleans 11/10/2022
Lost by 8 at Milwaukee 11/21/2022
Lost by 18 at Cleveland 11/23/2022
Won by 3 at New York 11/25/2022
Lost by 14 at Brooklyn 11/27/2022
Lost by 6 against the Clippers 11/29/2022
Lost by 19 at the Lakers 11/30/2022
Won by 5 at Utah 12/3/2022
Lost by 17 at Sacramento 2/23/2023
Lost by 17 at New Orleans 3/12/2023

That's a MOV of -6.36 against teams with an average SRS of 1.31.

I'm also working on some models for GOAT rankings and looking at adjusted Win Shares based on age curves (and some other measures still in progress). It's a bit geeky (of course!), but the details if you're interested are here in an initial, incomplete draft.

Looking at expected win shares of their teammates and dividing by games played (as there are some shortened seasons for Lillard), this gives a picture of how Drexler's and Lillard's teammates were expected to perform based on age curves.

Drexler's teammates:

1984: 0.518 EWS/G
1985: 0.492 EWS/G
1986: 0.507 EWS/G
1987: 0.496 EWS/G
1988: 0.442 EWS/G
1989: 0.431 EWS/G
1990: 0.505 EWS/G
1991: 0.500 EWS/G
1992: 0.498 EWS/G
1993: 0.541 EWS/G
1994: 0.525 EWS/G

Overall: 0.496 EWS/G

Lillard's teammates:

2013: 0.373 EWS/G
2014: 0.461 EWS/G
2015: 0.438 EWS/G
2016: 0.437 EWS/G
2017: 0.422 EWS/G
2018: 0.415 EWS/G
2019: 0.407 EWS/G
2020: 0.359 EWS/G
2021: 0.423 EWS/G
2022: 0.314 EWS/G
2023: 0.297 EWS/G

Overall: 0.395 EWS/G

Only the 2014 and 2015 teams with LMA, Batum, Matthews, etc. (and surprisingly, 2016) rank above the worst of Clyde's teammate expectations.

In a final crude measure, let's look at awards for their teammates.

All-Star teammates:

Jim Paxson 1984
Steve Johnson 1988
Kevin Duckworth 1989
Kevin Duckworth 1991
Terry Porter 1991
Terry Porter 1993
Clifford Robinson 1994
LaMarcus Aldridge 2013
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014
LaMarcus Aldridge 2015

All-NBA teammates:

Jim Paxson 1984 2nd team
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014 3rd team
LaMarcus Aldridge 2015 2nd team

All-Defense teammates:

Buck Williams 1990 1st team
Buck Williams 1991 1st team
Buck Williams 1992 2nd team

Dame may have had the most decorated teammate in Aldridge, but nobody else has ever won an award while he was on the team, and LMA was only with him for 3 seasons. Drexler, by contrast, had 7 All-Star teammate selections and Buck Williams getting 3 All-Defense nods. Every year from 1988-1994, Drexler had at least one teammate win a league award.

I am absolutely floored by how much effort you put into this. I am in awe sir! Well done!

[Moonbeam]

Were their teams that much better though? None of these teams had any perennial all stars around the main guys. The guys that did make the team were your classic 'we only made the all-star team because we have a good record' types. The players on those teams were definitely good and solid, but not like the players on Dame's teams sucked either. They did get to a WCF.

And funny how you address the MVP comp with Drexler but ignore it for Walton. AND how you didn't answer the question, which I guess IS an answer in it's own way....

Yes, I think Drexler's teams really were better overall, by quite some distance. There are a few ways to measure this. None are perfect, but they paint a picture.

Looking at Portland's records without each player, as well as their SRS in those games, we have the following.

Portland without Drexler:

1985: 1-1, SRS 3.89
1986: 4-3, SRS 1.92
1988: 0-1, SRS -20.88
1989: 1-3, SRS -4.96
1990: 4-5, SRS -3.09
1992: 2-4, SRS -0.06
1993: 21-13, SRS 2.66
1994: 8-6, SRS 2.50

Overall: 41-36, SRS 1.01

Portland without Lillard:

2016: 4-3, SRS -1.53
2017: 3-4, SRS 2.26
2018: 5-4, SRS -2.37
2019: 2-0, SRS -2.10
2020: 2-7, SRS -4.71
2021: 3-2, SRS 2.18

Overall: 19-20, SRS -1.33

This is admittedly bumpy and based on small samples for each season, but combining across seasons we get an overall picture that Drexler's teams tended to be stronger. I've left off 2022 and 2023 for Lillard as this would give him a crazy boost as Portland deliberately tanked those seasons.

But before Portland tanked in 2022 and before Lillard was out for the season, Portland did this without him:

Lost by 29 at Denver 11/14/2021
Won by 18 against Detroit 11/30/2021
Lost by 31 to San Antonio 12/2/2021
Lost by 28 to Boston 12/4/2021
Lost by 12 to the Clippers 12/6/2021
Lost by 10 at Golden State 12/8/2021

That's a MOV of -15.33 against teams with an average SRS of 1.24.

Before he was shut down in 2023, Portland did this without him:

Won by 14 against Houston 10/28/2022
Lost by 5 against Memphis 11/2/2022
Won by 2 at Phoenix 11/4/2022
Lost by 20 at Phoenix 11/5/2022
Won by 11 at New Orleans 11/10/2022
Lost by 8 at Milwaukee 11/21/2022
Lost by 18 at Cleveland 11/23/2022
Won by 3 at New York 11/25/2022
Lost by 14 at Brooklyn 11/27/2022
Lost by 6 against the Clippers 11/29/2022
Lost by 19 at the Lakers 11/30/2022
Won by 5 at Utah 12/3/2022
Lost by 17 at Sacramento 2/23/2023
Lost by 17 at New Orleans 3/12/2023

That's a MOV of -6.36 against teams with an average SRS of 1.31.

I'm also working on some models for GOAT rankings and looking at adjusted Win Shares based on age curves (and some other measures still in progress). It's a bit geeky (of course!), but the details if you're interested are here in an initial, incomplete draft.

Looking at expected win shares of their teammates and dividing by games played (as there are some shortened seasons for Lillard), this gives a picture of how Drexler's and Lillard's teammates were expected to perform based on age curves.

Drexler's teammates:

1984: 0.518 EWS/G
1985: 0.492 EWS/G
1986: 0.507 EWS/G
1987: 0.496 EWS/G
1988: 0.442 EWS/G
1989: 0.431 EWS/G
1990: 0.505 EWS/G
1991: 0.500 EWS/G
1992: 0.498 EWS/G
1993: 0.541 EWS/G
1994: 0.525 EWS/G

Overall: 0.496 EWS/G

Lillard's teammates:

2013: 0.373 EWS/G
2014: 0.461 EWS/G
2015: 0.438 EWS/G
2016: 0.437 EWS/G
2017: 0.422 EWS/G
2018: 0.415 EWS/G
2019: 0.407 EWS/G
2020: 0.359 EWS/G
2021: 0.423 EWS/G
2022: 0.314 EWS/G
2023: 0.297 EWS/G

Overall: 0.395 EWS/G

Only the 2014 and 2015 teams with LMA, Batum, Matthews, etc. (and surprisingly, 2016) rank above the worst of Clyde's teammate expectations.

In a final crude measure, let's look at awards for their teammates.

All-Star teammates:

Jim Paxson 1984
Steve Johnson 1988
Kevin Duckworth 1989
Kevin Duckworth 1991
Terry Porter 1991
Terry Porter 1993
Clifford Robinson 1994
LaMarcus Aldridge 2013
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014
LaMarcus Aldridge 2015

All-NBA teammates:

Jim Paxson 1984 2nd team
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014 3rd team
LaMarcus Aldridge 2015 2nd team

All-Defense teammates:

Buck Williams 1990 1st team
Buck Williams 1991 1st team
Buck Williams 1992 2nd team

Dame may have had the most decorated teammate in Aldridge, but nobody else has ever won an award while he was on the team, and LMA was only with him for 3 seasons. Drexler, by contrast, had 7 All-Star teammate selections and Buck Williams getting 3 All-Defense nods. Every year from 1988-1994, Drexler had at least one teammate win a league award.

I am absolutely floored by how much effort you put into this. I am in awe sir! Well done!

Thankfully, most of it is easy to produce via code I've had lying around for a few years.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure who I'd pick between Drexler and Lillard. I think it's really close. I think Walton had the best peak, and as such it's fair enough to put him at the top, but his short tenure with Portland limits his case, title and all.

[PDXKnight]

I think he's 3, 1 and 2 are Walton then Clyde in my eyes but I totally get people putting Clyde first due to longevity and I don't put Walton ahead of Clyde by much

On a side note Dame ahead of Walton is INSANITY. No disrespect to any voters but Dame has a career record of being bottom basement defensively

[DC_Melo]

I think he's 3, 1 and 2 are Walton then Clyde in my eyes but I totally get people putting Clyde first due to longevity and I don't put Walton ahead of Clyde by much

On a side note Dame ahead of Walton is INSANITY. No disrespect to any voters but Dame has a career record of being bottom basement defensively

Walton contributed to the greatest accomplishment in franchise history. He was a true 2 way player and only player to land us a chip (although we need to remember he didn’t do it alone)

But he only played a total of 209 games for the organization, holds 0 franchise all-time records and barely shows up on any top 5’s; and was statistically half the player Dame is offensively. Yes, Walton had touch, vision, and could pass… but he just wasn’t the offensive talent Dame is and it’s not close. I mean his career high of 36 barely tops what Dame averaged all year…

Dame never achieved what Walton did, and has been a mediocre defender at best… but he holds numerous franchise records or is in the top 3, never had a talented enough cast to make a real championship push, and has been a net positive for us on the court on a Franchise level that Walton just doesn’t hold a candle to.

For context, Walton was a 2 time all star. Those came his last (of only 4) seasons with the Blazers, where he had a W/S total of 8.6 and 10.2 (the title winner season). His other two seasons with the blazers? W/S below 4.

Dame has had W/S totals above 10.2 in 6 separate seasons. Despite his bad defense, Dame has had a much larger net impact on winning for our Franchise than any other blazer not named Clyde drexler.

While I love Walton, and will always appreciate he led rip city to our only Chip… he was a 1.5 year flash of greatness in a pan. We can disagree on who is the greatest, but I don’t think there’s anything crazy about arguing for Dame as our franchise best.

[PDXKnight]

I think he's 3, 1 and 2 are Walton then Clyde in my eyes but I totally get people putting Clyde first due to longevity and I don't put Walton ahead of Clyde by much

On a side note Dame ahead of Walton is INSANITY. No disrespect to any voters but Dame has a career record of being bottom basement defensively

Walton contributed to the greatest accomplishment in franchise history. He was a true 2 way player and only player to land us a chip (although we need to remember he didn’t do it alone)

But he only played a total of 209 games for the organization, holds 0 franchise all-time records and barely shows up on any top 5’s; and was statistically half the player Dame is offensively. Yes, Walton had touch, vision, and could pass… but he just wasn’t the offensive talent Dame is and it’s not close. I mean his career high of 36 barely tops what Dame averaged all year…

Dame never achieved what Walton did, and has been a mediocre defender at best… but he holds numerous franchise records or is in the top 3, never had a talented enough cast to make a real championship push, and has been a net positive for us on the court on a Franchise level that Walton just doesn’t hold a candle to.

For context, Walton was a 2 time all star. Those came his last (of only 4) seasons with the Blazers, where he had a W/S total of 8.6 and 10.2 (the title winner season). His other two seasons with the blazers? W/S below 4.

Dame has had W/S totals above 10.2 in 6 separate seasons. Despite his bad defense, Dame has had a much larger net impact on winning for our Franchise than any other blazer not named Clyde drexler.

While I love Walton, and will always appreciate he led rip city to our only Chip… he was a 1.5 year flash of greatness in a pan. We can disagree on who is the greatest, but I don’t think there’s anything crazy about arguing for Dame as our franchise best.

I think I'm considering just how great he was during that time. We are looking at an mvp level player an accolade which Dame never reached. At his peak Walton was undoubtedly better in the league than Dame. But yes using longevity alone I can see the argument for Dame. Albeit as you said he'd still be behind Clyde who couldnt out score Dame but could defend.

[One_and_Done]

You can't pull what Dame did and be the GOAT.