keep Brogdon, trade Simons?

[Wizenheimer]

Brogdon is a better player than Simons. He's a better PG; and he's a better SG. He also has much better size. And importantly, he's good at defense while Ant is absolutely terrible at defense

furthermore, Brogdon is the reigning 6th Man of the Year. So he's demonstrated he's extremely good at coming off the bench. Ant hasn't shown that

Unfortunately, the Blazers seem determined to trot out the 9th straight season of a starting back court of a 6'2 PG and an under-6'3 SG, with that 6'3 SG having no defensive ability, no wing ability, no 2-way ability, and no 3&D ability. I wish the Blazers would keep Brogdon and trade Ant, but they seem stubbornly determined to fail for a 9th straight year with a tiny-bad-defense guard combo

Completely agree...

But the argument is that Ant can score 25+ ppg (while giving up 30+). Scoring the ball is tantalizing for some.

I think it's tantalizing for some fans

I don't think it's tantalizing for front offices and GM's. Ant averaging 25 points on a 30 win team will be viewed as empty-calories

[Wizenheimer]

He also has much better size.

Agreed on all points but this one:

Anfernee Simons Height w/o shoes: 6' 2.25'' reach: 8' 3.5'' wingspan 6' 9.25''
Malcolm Brogdon Height w/o shoes: 6' 3.75'' reach 8' 2'' wingspan 6' 10.5''

Brogdon has only marginally better size. Ant certainly PLAYS smaller though!

Weight / strength should be inclueded when talking about size.

Ant is listed at 181lbs.
Brogdan is listed at 229lbs.

Thats a hell of a difference.

exactly, that's one of the factors I was referencing when I said Brogdon had much better size. With that mass Brogdon can defend wings and SF's, at least he can situationally. Ant can't defend a chair

[Norm2953]

We'll all see soon enough when the pre-season games begin

Orlando as Skybox writes might love to bring Ant home but whether they include Jett Howard
who would be the guy Portland would want in a trade, remains to be seen.

[JRoy]

Move Simons and devote those minutes to the future backcourt and Mentor.

[DusterBuster]

Man, we need games to start fast. This forums lost its damn mind.

[Shem]

Unfortunately, the Blazers seem determined to trot out the 9th straight season of a starting back court of a 6'2 PG and an under-6'3 SG, with that 6'3 SG having no defensive ability, no wing ability, no 2-way ability, and no 3&D ability. I wish the Blazers would keep Brogdon and trade Ant, but they seem stubbornly determined to fail for a 9th straight year with a tiny-bad-defense guard combo

I think this season there is hope that Simons has a breakout year averaging maybe like 25 per game. It would up his value and get more for him in return. Because from what I understand, there wasn't a huge market in terms of getting a good return for Simons this past offseason. Showcase him without Dame and see where it goes and hope his value goes up to get a better return later.

I really hope the plan is to have Sharpe eventually become the starting SG. Even Kobe Bryant was a 6th man his 2nd year in the league as Eddie Jones started in front of him. Eventually Eddie Jones was traded.

We do have to remind ourselves that this is a rebuilding year. Getting Scoot, Sharpe and Simons a lot of minutes is important for various reasons.

[Brandon-Clyde]

Whether we keep one, both or neither should not depend much on the other. We should decide based on what we can get for them and what our future plans for them are. If it looks like Simons would ultimately be a great sixth man and would accept such a role it might be best to keep him but if it looks like he is going to be a sixth man but really wants to start find a good trade for either picks or to help fill a need. That is irrespective of the situation for Brogdon for the most part who likely won't want to be on a rebuilding team.

[monopoman]

The only way Simons gets traded is if we are getting a young guy back with some real promise maybe an expiring and a good 1st round pick. That would be the minimum package I could imagine, I have a feeling the Blazers view Simons as a long term piece barring the right deal coming around.

He also had a bit of a average season for him last year, or slightly below average for his level, so they might be looking to showcase him more this season. If he comes out balling at a very high level, we might have more teams interested but in that case obviously the Blazers are less likely to trade him.

[Wizenheimer]

I think this season there is hope that Simons has a breakout year averaging maybe like 25 per game. It would up his value and get more for him in return. Because from what I understand, there wasn't a huge market in terms of getting a good return for Simons this past offseason. Showcase him without Dame and see where it goes and hope his value goes up to get a better return later..

I have always thought the notion that a team can showcase a non-all-star-level player who has obvious flaws and limitations like Ant does as being a misguided notion.

bumping his PPG to 25 from 21 isn't going to to persuade any team that Ant is better than they thought unless Ant is leading the team to lots of wins and the playoffs. I can't see that happening. Empty-calorie scoring and chucking on a bad team doesn't increase a player's value, IMO.

In Ant's case, what would significantly increase his value is if he grew to 6'5 and became a great defender. Neither outcome seems likely. I think Ant is in that group of players like Jordan Poole, Tyler Herro, Buddy Hield, Devin Vassell, Norm Powell, Eric Gordon....players with limitations they will never overcome. In Ant's case, he can never be a wing, a 2-way player, a 3&D glue guy, a player capable of decent defense. Flaws and limitations

Ant's most suitable role would be as a 6th man...a microwave off the bench who can slide into a limited PG role. If he was that his value would be mostly dependent on what he can do as a 6th man. As a starter his value will be degraded by what he can't do

[monopoman]

I think this season there is hope that Simons has a breakout year averaging maybe like 25 per game. It would up his value and get more for him in return. Because from what I understand, there wasn't a huge market in terms of getting a good return for Simons this past offseason. Showcase him without Dame and see where it goes and hope his value goes up to get a better return later..

I have always thought the notion that a team can showcase a non-all-star-level player who has obvious flaws and limitations like Ant does as being a misguided notion.

bumping his PPG to 25 from 21 isn't going to to persuade any team that Ant is better than they thought unless Ant is leading the team to lots of wins and the playoffs. I can't see that happening. Empty-calorie scoring and chucking on a bad team doesn't increase a player's value, IMO.

In Ant's case, what would significantly increase his value is if he grew to 6'5 and became a great defender. Neither outcome seems likely. I think Ant is in that group of players like Jordan Poole, Tyler Herro, Buddy Hield, Devin Vassell, Norm Powell, Eric Gordon....players with limitations they will never overcome. In Ant's case, he can never be a wing, a 2-way player, a 3&D glue guy, a player capable of decent defense. Flaws and limitations

Ant's most suitable role would be as a 6th man...a microwave off the bench who can slide into a limited PG role. If he was that his value would be mostly dependent on what he can do as a 6th man. As a starter his value will be degraded by what he can't do

I could see him being more appealing if his shooting was more impressive, sure you can still count it as "empty scoring" but plenty of teams get fooled by a guy that can knock down 3's like it's nothing.

His TS% is pretty damn average so that has been the biggest knock against him he has to learn how to get to the line more or be more accurate from outside. He is a better shooter than Herro though so this notion that he is the same player is not really accurate when both guys are not great on D.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I think something that is lost in the conversation about efficiency is that players who can reliably create their own shot at average efficiency are underrated compared to players who can situationally get a shot at above average efficiency. I'm not saying better exactly, but like you cant spam the same 3 plays every game.

[Pattycakes]

Man, we need games to start fast. This forums lost its damn mind.

Burn it all down, just too much lol. Jk but it sure seems like some can’t handle it

[Pattycakes]

No.

If nobody wants Brogdon, that's on Brogdon.

Keep the core.

Wizenheimer: But Simons is an inefficient chucker whose stats only look good because his usage rate is through the roof.

I am aware. And I am not opposed to moving Simons down the line. But right now, Brogdon's value is probably only going to go down. And Simons' value is probably going to go up. So unless there is an overpay, which we saw with Herro is not going to happen soon, just play the hand the Blazers were dealt.

Still disappointed we didn't dumpster dive John Collins when his value was all-time low. Have a feeling that could have been a Julius Randle tier incremental improvement. Fine committing to a tank if the team is serious about committing to tank. But most teams start hemorrhaging money, and then playing .500 ball and selling some tickets becomes more of a priority than developing a young core.

Nobody wants brogdon? Wat

[Wizenheimer]

I think something that is lost in the conversation about efficiency is that players who can reliably create their own shot at average efficiency are underrated compared to players who can situationally get a shot at above average efficiency. I'm not saying better exactly, but like you cant spam the same 3 plays every game.

I think that's probably true

unfortunately, Simons was only in the 48th percentile in isolation stats last season; Dame was in the 91st percentile; Keon Johnson was in the 82nd percentile; Josh Hart was 52nd percentile. And the year before, Simons was in the 28th percentile in isolation.

on the other hand, he was in the 80th percentile in spot-up. And, Ant was the 82nd percentile in PnR-ball-handler. Dame was 94th percentile; Grant was 92nd percentile

Simons is not as good an ISO player as many assume. He's actually below average. In many critical ways, this situation with Ant is a carbon copy of the situation with CJ. They look flashy creating their own shots (unless they are over-dribbling in a MeJ mode), But the results and impact are actually sub-optimal and a style-over-substance failure

The NBA average for PER is 15.0; Simons has a career mark of 13.1 and was at 14.8 last season. The NBA average for winshares/48 is .100; Simons has a career mark of .047 and was at .054 last season. And, Simons has had a negative BPM in each of his 5 seasons and has a career mark of -1.8.

by just about every measure, Simons has an average to below average impact in every area but catch-&-shoot and spot-up, mainly do to 3 point shooting. But apparently the Blazers are planning to feature him as the #1 option as if he's a well rounded all-star player. Maybe that long-shot bet will pay off. And maybe it won't matter because wins won't be that important this season. But Simons has not earned that #1 position by merit. Seems it's just a default setting

and of course none of factors his sieve-like defense

[m0ng0]

Could it be logical to assume now that Dame is gone the offense could change to suit the players here and now? Alot of the players suffered from running the offense designed for Dame, as he was facilitator and #1 option to score. Maybe just maybe in a more open offense things could change and become more of a team ball type offense... maybe

[DaVoiceMaster]

Ideally trade them both eventually, it just depends on which one gets the better offer first.


I almost wouldn't be surprised if they are our starters day 1. Let them both boost their value, as well as Grant's by not hampering him with having to carry a couple young players against opposing starting lineups. Then you bring in Scoot/Sharpe as a change of pace and let them attack freely and then mix and match during the game depending on who is have a game. By the trade deadline you move the vets and open minutes for the Scoot/Sharpe combo to take over.

I know some will disagree and think there is something magic about handing a rookie the keys on day one, but I personally think there is a usefulness to keeping around a guy with a ton of experience and versatility like Brogdon, especially at the beginning of the year. Let him kind of set the tone and get this team working together and figured out so we don't run the risk of our rooks being exposed early and fighting uphill against that the rest of the season. Let them take over when they have earned it by getting in rhythm and beasting out from off the bench, then they will have something to stand on when they eventually get exposed by more experienced players.

That said, many ways to develop a player, maybe Scoot is thrown in the fire on day 1, especially if he poised and in control during training camp and shows Billups he deserves it. Then having someone like Brogdon to come in and take over and keep things running smooth or step in if Scoot runs into trouble could be a very nice veteran presence to have. I have always thought that having a competent lead guard is so essential to get the most out of the other 4 guys on the court and have them play their best, so when you have a rookie PG you are putting big pressure and expectations on it is really smart to have a steady hand to step in if/when its needed.

I too would move both sometime before the deadline. I might move Grant, as well depending on the return. Ideally, the Blazers end up with a young starting SF by trading Simons and/or Brogdon. If they move Grant, as well, they will need a starting PF. I don't mind going young for a year or two and pick up a high draft pick or two, then add some veterans to the bench.

[Norm2953]

Could it be logical to assume now that Dame is gone the offense could change to suit the players here and now? Alot of the players suffered from running the offense designed for Dame, as he was facilitator and #1 option to score. Maybe just maybe in a more open offense things could change and become more of a team ball type offense... maybe

Team needs to add a front court player who can run with Scoot and Sharpe. Scoot is already showing he'll be the
fastest PG in the history of the team. Hopefully with Ayton and Time Lord, team will be competitive on the
boards and can get the ball up the court, which we haven't seen since the Drexler teams.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I think something that is lost in the conversation about efficiency is that players who can reliably create their own shot at average efficiency are underrated compared to players who can situationally get a shot at above average efficiency. I'm not saying better exactly, but like you cant spam the same 3 plays every game.

I think that's probably true

unfortunately, Simons was only in the 48th percentile in isolation stats last season; Dame was in the 91st percentile; Keon Johnson was in the 82nd percentile; Josh Hart was 52nd percentile. And the year before, Simons was in the 28th percentile in isolation.

on the other hand, he was in the 80th percentile in spot-up. And, Ant was the 82nd percentile in PnR-ball-handler. Dame was 94th percentile; Grant was 92nd percentile

Simons is not as good an ISO player as many assume. He's actually below average. In many critical ways, this situation with Ant is a carbon copy of the situation with CJ. They look flashy creating their own shots (unless they are over-dribbling in a MeJ mode), But the results and impact are actually sub-optimal and a style-over-substance failure

The NBA average for PER is 15.0; Simons has a career mark of 13.1 and was at 14.8 last season. The NBA average for winshares/48 is .100; Simons has a career mark of .047 and was at .054 last season. And, Simons has had a negative BPM in each of his 5 seasons and has a career mark of -1.8.

by just about every measure, Simons has an average to below average impact in every area but catch-&-shoot and spot-up, mainly do to 3 point shooting. But apparently the Blazers are planning to feature him as the #1 option as if he's a well rounded all-star player. Maybe that long-shot bet will pay off. And maybe it won't matter because wins won't be that important this season. But Simons has not earned that #1 position by merit. Seems it's just a default setting

and of course none of factors his sieve-like defense

I really should have put a disclaimer that I wasn't really trying to jump on the defend Ant wagon. I am more talking about the type of player he could become.

I think there is an important discussion about how to actually consistently create offense, and to do so in a dynamic enough fashion that the defense's reaction doesn't take away your best options. If you come down the court and throw it to your 40% 3-point shooter every time they will guard him closely and you simply cannot get good looks for him. So how do you free up the defense from paying attention to your 40% shooter?

One option is to feed a steady diet of less efficient shots but unpredictable enough that you pull defensive focus away from your best option or keep them guessing all game long. An AI coach would probably not flinch and keep their defense the same but humans understand that if you let them get in a rhythm they can shoot well above their career efficiency numbers and win, so a human is likely to adjust their defensive plan. That will push the less efficient but more dynamic player back to their average numbers that we can all laugh about and wonder why a coach would ever let them take shots away from the other guy.

Again, I am not specifically defending Ant because he is not a good example of what I am talking about. However if he were to take a step and become a better player it isn't necessarily be because he shoots above average league efficiency but because he can handle a larger volume of offense while being creative enough to keep defenses on their toes because if you let him heat up his career numbers do not matter for a single game scenario. It isn't just any NBA player that can increase their volume, a lot of players if you put the ball in their hands too much they become a target to be hunted by opposing defenses. This is an area of the game that I don't think analytics does a great job understanding, it is the human element to the game.

Again, not defending Ant specifically, it's just an element I think is generally lost when people bring up efficiency is that you cannot just create uber-efficient shots all game long at will and so one needs to figure out how to generate as many efficient shots as possible, knowing that often you will have to strategically settle for some volume of less efficient shots because sometimes defense's do their job.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Could it be logical to assume now that Dame is gone the offense could change to suit the players here and now? Alot of the players suffered from running the offense designed for Dame, as he was facilitator and #1 option to score. Maybe just maybe in a more open offense things could change and become more of a team ball type offense... maybe

Team needs to add a front court player who can run with Scoot and Sharpe. Scoot is already showing he'll be the
fastest PG in the history of the team. Hopefully with Ayton and Time Lord, team will be competitive on the
boards and can get the ball up the court, which we haven't seen since the Drexler teams.

I love that we have a ton of weapons around Scoot so he can come in and be the PG for the team and learn how to set up wings and forwards and bigs to get them good shots.

[Norm2953]

It'll be interesting Ant in Portland's 2023-24 offense for with Scoot, we might see more of an open
court player from the guy who won the slam dunk contest. Ant might get a ton of open looks as
the trailer in Portland's offense.

We're not going to see the half court minded Blazers that we saw from the B-Roy/Dame teams that
seemed to prefer the half court sets for Scoot is fast. If only we had a Jerome Kersey to fill the
other lane in Portland's transition game