Oregon & Washington (OT)

[Norm2953]

Finally something else to talk about with Dame trade talk stalemated!

I see there is a lot of twitter talk of the imminent collapse of the P12 with both LA schools
leaving after 2024 and Colorado announcing they are leaving for the B10, which leaves
Oregon and Washington looking for an exit ramp with the P12 media deal ending. Will they
find their way into the B1G with the two LA schools?

I've got no idea where the other schools like OSU will go

[soobias]

i hope they both stay along with the rest of the p12 and maybe grab a couple schools to take place of usc and ucla and no one cares about colorado lol. just grab schools like boise st ,utah st , colorado st.
it sickened me that usc and ucla would do that and i dont like that the ncaa allows that i thought it was suppose to be geographical and i know others in the past went to the scc and other conf that they shouldnt be in but to travel across the country to play conf games looks stupid and they are going from being the big fish in a somewhat small pond to a reg fish in a big pond llol.
i think it'll make oregon and washington get more tv time for the ncaa will need schools to represent the west coast.

[PDXKnight]

I think Oregon will be gone pretty quickly. I dont think they're revealing their cards publicly because if it falls through going to the B1G they'll fall back on asking for more GOR from the pac and stick it out. Bur privately there's 4 schools that are all wanting a big 10 invite and those are the 2 you mentioned along with Stanford and cal who I think will be part of the deal given geographical needs with a potential west coast division

I'd bet Oregon is the one the B1G wants primarily due to notoriety and the Nike connection but they'd gladly take UW for the Seattle market. CAL and Stanford and more unknowns but both especially Stanford seem to fit the Big10 prototype school so I'd almost guarantee the cardinal are on their minds

[Norm2953]

The big rumor is Oregon will go to the big 12 and if they go, Washington will follow but all these
moves are mostly focused on football and eventually leading to the long rumored super conference
that will secede from the NCAA.

Think about USC, UCLA, T-OSU, Michigan, Penn State from the new B1G, the big SEC football schools,
UNC, Miami, FSU, ND forming their own super conference and it'll be interesting to see if Oregon
(NIKE) and Washington try to get into the club

[BigPuma]

Hard to predict how it will play out for the long term, but in terms of a college football national championship staying in a weak PAC -12 could be a huge advantage for the short term. My understanding of the expanded playoff is that all of the power 5 conference champions get an automatic berth. if the PAC -12( or whatever number) is weak but still gets a berth then one of the teams will get a live shot at the championship each year.

[Renegade]

grab a couple schools to take place of usc and ucla ... just grab schools like boise st ,utah st , colorado st.

That will take the Power 5 down to the Power 4 1/2.

[JasonStern]

Based on internet rumors:

If the Big Ten reaches out, Oregon and Washington are gone. This is the best outcome for both schools. They're close enough to be travel partners in non-football athletics and provide USC/UCLA with regional opponents. However, the Big Ten is holding out for Notre Dame, which will never happen. But if it does, Stanford might actually be the team that gets the Big Ten invite.

Oregon and Washington have met with the Big 12. No surprise there. They would be foolish to not at least hold exploratory talks. The Big 12 remains steadfast on equal revenue share, and both Oregon and Washington believe their media rights are worth more. However, the Pac12 hasn't been able to come up with a media deal that schools would find acceptable. ESPN's solution was that the Pac12 go to an uneven revenue distribution model, with Oregon and Washington getting more than the other schools. Those numbers got leaked. But the collapse of the Pac12 is dependent on what the Arizona schools do. If they leave for the Big 12, it's over. So, uneven revenue sharing was never something the conference would consider out of fear of upsetting the Arizona schools.

Oregon State and Wazzu have the Mountain West as a landing spot. TV markets and national interest too low for the Big 12 to dilute revenue share.

Big 12 looking to add either 1 or 3 more schools. If the Pac12 doesn't collapse, UConn is considered the favorite. The Big 12 realizes it isn't on the level of the SEC or Big Ten in football. But it is competitive in basketball. That's another reason why Arizona is a target of the Big 12.

Nearly every G5 school has applied for Pac12 membership. However, none of them add enough media rights value to really justify expansion. But that was all pre-Colorado departing. The conference just effectively lost 10% of its media. San Diego State and SMU are rumored to be the favorites if they did expand, as that would get the Pac12 back into southern California and into Texas.

[JasonStern]

Plenty of speculation. I imagine the whole thing is far more fluid than people are making it out to be. There's still a year left of the media contract. So, I doubt anything will happen anytime soon. But I trust Mullens and the P.K.s.

One rumor is that Oregon wants to keep the Pac-? alive. A reduced media deal doesn't hurt Oregon as much as it hurts the rest of the conference. They're in a lucky situation where they have two billionaire donors that are seriously interested in Oregon sports. And with the playoff expanding and guaranteed bids for conferences, Oregon would really just need to beat Washington and Utah and they're in.

The other speculative rumor is that the Big Ten has offered Oregon and Washington membership, but just like when Colorado and Utah joined the Pac-12, neither school is getting the full distribution. The Big Ten feels like it has all of the power. And the rumored phase-in was higher than the rumored Pac-X media deal, but below what the Big 12 is going to pay out. Thus, the Big 12 meeting was more done as a negotiation tactic to get the reduced payout upped to at least Big 12 levels.

But the other legit sounding rumor is that the lowball offers were on the table. Oregon and Washington didn't bite. They wanted to see what George Kliavkoff could get for the media rights. Then when the Big Ten hired Tony Petitti as commissioner, expansion plans disappeared. And the existing offer is no longer on the table.

I'm not worried about Oregon or Washington. Oregon was 12th in most watched teams - highest in the Pac-12, and that is with games on the stupid Pac-12 network that nobody has. Washington is 34th, which is still respectable. But if they bail, which again, could be dependent on if Arizona drops the lit match on the poured gasoline, I'll feel bad for the teams that won't really have a home. What do you at that point? Poach some Mountain West teams? At that point, the Pac-Whatever pretty much is the Mountain West.

My ideal situation, which will NEVER happen, is Oregon and Washington join the SEC in football only. Then, they join the Mountain West for all remaining sports. The 8 game schedule means only 4 trips to the west coast for 8 teams (and 4 southeast road games for Oregon and Washington). And in exchange, we get SEC night games. Mountain West membership would make sports like basketball far more winnable. And 4 out of conference games means you can still keep some of the existing rivalries alive.

What I do not see happening is Oregon going independent. Doing so affects every athletic program - not just football. I mean, maybe you could align with the Mountain West or WCC. But it doesn't seem like a realistic path.

[Wizenheimer]

there has been a ton of chatter out of Big-10 circles today that the Big-10 is engaged in affirmative talks with the UofO/UofW. Talks about the two schools joining with a reduced share for the duration of the new media deal. And that the biggest advocate for Oregon/Washington is FOX sports because they want to dominate the Friday Night and Saturday night time slots with quality content and steal leverage from ESPN

ironically, the UofO and the UofW hate each other but they are apparently joined at the hip if the path is open to the Big-10 first, and the Big-12 second. They have more leverage as a pair

hard to asses odds, but there might be a decent chance that the Ducks and Huskies are headed to the Big-10; Arizona, ASU, and Utah to the Big-12; and OSU/WSU to some form of revamped Mountain West conference

what Stanford/Cal do is anybody's guess. Big media doesn't care about them, but the Big-10 presidents would love their academic prestige and research budgets

[JasonStern]

ironically, the UofO and the UofW hate each other but they are apparently joined at the hip if the path is open to the Big-10 first, and the Big-12 second. They have more leverage as a pair

The fan bases hate each other. The players hate each other. But both administrations get along great.

As much as I dislike Lossington, I love the rivalry. Much like when the Sonics disappeared, and with it the I-5 rivalry, it would be a shame if Oregon and Washington ended up in different conferences.

[Norm2953]

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-expansion-rumors-clemson-florida-state-oregon-washington

More talk of B1G expansion with not just Oregon and Washington, but Clemson and Florida State. This takes
two more schools from the sinking P12 and two from the ACC

[JasonStern]

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-expansion-rumors-clemson-florida-state-oregon-washington

More talk of B1G expansion with not just Oregon and Washington, but Clemson and Florida State. This takes
two more schools from the sinking P12 and two from the ACC

https://247sports.com/article/acc-leaders-emerge-in-unified-silence-as-conference-faces-questi-210299035/

ESPN owns the ACC. The only chance that Clemson and Florida State leave is if it somehow benefits Disney, which given the SEC payouts would be difficult to justify.

[Norm2953]

The Oregon 247 Board today is discussing the Big B1G opening up to Oregon, Washington,
Cal and Stanford, with those schools getting partial shares. Tepid reaction to a Apple TV
media deal is fueling the talk. B1G would love to add Stanford with ND

This would likely lead to ASU/Arizona and Utah headed to the B12 and presumably OSU/WSU
going to the Mountain West.

ESPN is reporting FSU openly looking for an out from the ACC, which suggests the ACC like
the P12 is headed for extinction

[Norm2953]

I just saw on the Husky Dawgman board, Wisconsin is a holdout due to their wanting to be the
only UW in the B1G

[Wizenheimer]

I just saw on the Husky Dawgman board, Wisconsin is a holdout due to their wanting to be the
only UW in the B1G

Wisconsin has opposed every Big-10 expansion. IIRC they are always NO votes. In this case, They fear being in a division/pod with the 4 Pacific schools and having a travel disadvantage vs the rest of the traditional Big-10 powers

[Norm2953]

I just saw on the Husky Dawgman board, Wisconsin is a holdout due to their wanting to be the
only UW in the B1G

Wisconsin has opposed every Big-10 expansion. IIRC they are always NO votes. In this case, They fear being in a division/pod with the 4 Pacific schools and having a travel disadvantage vs the rest of the traditional Big-10 powers

Why would Wisconsin be the team sent West? If Oregon/UW got admitted to the B1G with Cal/Stanford, that
alone would be a West coast Pod. Geographically, Nebraska is closest to the West Coast if Cal/Stanford are
not going to the B1G

The thing is however, the vote does not have to be unanimous and there is no way Wisconsin could keep out
USC/UCLA

[Norm2953]

Should be a wild 24 hours with the remaining 9 Pac schools meeting today. Apple's
media offering for the Pac schools expires today, which is why the Pac schools are
meeting.

It does seem like Oregon and Washington have their bags packed for the B1G as do
Arizona, ASU and Utah headed for the Big 12. That leaves Cal, Stanford either going
to the B1G as well or as independent.

If Oregon, UW, Cal and Stanford all end up in the B1G with USC/UCLA, it would ease
travel concerns and be the west coast pod for the B1G

[JasonStern]

WE ARE NOT GOING TO LOSE SOME FLUKE GAME TO STANFORD EVERY YEAR!

Everyone: What happens when they join the Big Ten?

Don't ruin the moment.

[Norm2953]

It's all happening with UO & UW formally applying to the B10 and Colorado, Utah,
ASU and UA all going to the B12.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with OSU and WSU along with Cal and Stanford.

Conceivably they could all be asking to join the B12 for the drop in revenue from $31 Million to
$4.5 million for the Mountain West makes those athletic programs impossible. How interesting
it would be if the B12 swallowed up 8 former P12 schools and the B1G getting the 4 biggest
schools

[PDXKnight]

It's all happening with UO & UW formally applying to the B10 and Colorado, Utah,
ASU and UA all going to the B12.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with OSU and WSU along with Cal and Stanford.

Conceivably they could all be asking to join the B12 for the drop in revenue from $31 Million to
$4.5 million for the Mountain West makes those athletic programs impossible. How interesting
it would be if the B12 swallowed up 8 former P12 schools and the B1G getting the 4 biggest
schools

I think the big 12 supposedly has the money for 20 but I think they take 2 more to go to 18 for now. I think those 2 are Stanford and osu if I had to guess. Then wsu and cal get screwed unfortunately. If the B1G takes 2 more it'll be ND first and a distant second is one of the Acc schools. If ND demands Stanford for a ND entry I actually think B1G would prefer ND/Stanford over FSU/NC or NC/Clemson. Seems odd on paper but ND is in the B1G's eyes the big catch given viewership. Ultimately though I don't think ND would have a Stanford condition so it'd be ND and FSU/Clemson/UNC (pick one) and Stanford would then go to the big 12 with the Beavs

As far as MWC contract I think they up the ante via a pac 12 merger if the remaining 4 members stick it out. The pac 12 name would survive the mwc imo as it's more renowned and a better TV deal would be negotiated compared to the mwc's