Oregon & Washington (OT)

[Norm2953]

It's all happening with UO & UW formally applying to the B10 and Colorado, Utah,
ASU and UA all going to the B12.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with OSU and WSU along with Cal and Stanford.

Conceivably they could all be asking to join the B12 for the drop in revenue from $31 Million to
$4.5 million for the Mountain West makes those athletic programs impossible. How interesting
it would be if the B12 swallowed up 8 former P12 schools and the B1G getting the 4 biggest
schools

I think the big 12 supposedly has the money for 20 but I think they take 2 more to go to 18 for now. I think those 2 are Stanford and osu if I had to guess. Then wsu and cal get screwed unfortunately. If the B1G takes 2 more it'll be ND first and a distant second is one of the Acc schools. I actually think B1G would prefer ND/Stanford over FSU/NC or NC/Clemson. Seems odd on paper but ND is in the B1G's eyes the big catch given viewership

I've been reading the various school boards and it does look like neither Cal/Stanford really give a ****.

I do think however eventually Stanford goes into the B1G if ND can be enticed to enter. OSU/WSU are the most
motivated but its really hard to ignore the #6 TV market (Bay area)

It's a fascinating story that is unfolding. Much more interesting than focusing on Dame, every day.

[JasonStern]

The Big Ten will add Stanford if Notre Dame joins. But Notre Dame has zero interest in joining, as they are set to get paid a rumored $75M/year by NBC while retaining their autonomy. Plus they have a deal to play ACC teams that are currently locked into a terrible media rights deal. So, the only way they join a conference is if, years from now when the new playoff format deal expires, access to the playoffs is restricted to the Big 2 - no Notre Dame exception.

Big 12 could expand, but they've set themselves up smartly as a basketball conference now that all of the big name football programs have homes. They reportedly have more interest in UConn and Gonzaga than Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, Wazzu. And you have to admit, that would be a basketball powerhouse of a conference. And as much as I love Oregon State and Wazzu, Corvallis and Pullman aren't exactly large TV markets. And while football generates most of the money, a Kansas vs. Gonzaga basketball match up is going to have more eyes than a Kansas vs. Oregon State football game. And remember, the end goal is to get eyes on the TV to sell commercials.

The AAC reached out to the Pac4, which seems logistically not ideal from a geological standpoint. But worst case, that's a potential landing spot. Best guess for the Pac4 is a merger with the Mountain West. Mountain West TV deal runs through 2025-26. Adding the Pac4 would help with renegotiations. But, the Pac4 really is screwed. The athletic departments budgeted against at least a Big 12 level contract that never came to fruition. So, now there is a lot of debt and spending taken on by schools that has to somehow be addressed. I wouldn't be surprised if Cal drops several sports.

Stanford is looking at going independent. At least at football. Keep the USC and Notre Dame rivalry games, then partner but not join another conference. They have over a year to figure it out. But with non-conference college football schedules getting scheduled years out, that's not as long as it seems.

Biased. I live in Reno. I want Oregon State/Wazzu in some Pac/Mountian Conference. I'd love to watch Nevada play them. Stanford less so. I don't want Notre Dame in the Big Ten because that would open the door for Stanford. Which means all of those fluke losses Oregon has suffered over the years will continue to happen for decades.

On the plus side, Mullens gave a press conference saying he intends to do what he can to keep the Platypus Cup/Civil War/whatever game every year. Which is awesome. It's not like out-of-conference games are going away.

[Norm2953]

I do think (hope) the Beavers/Cougs will find a home either in the MWC or in a reverse merger
with the MWC teams to form a new Pac 12.

The ACC is the next conference that will be impacted for FSU is already making noises about
wanting out with North Carolina, Clemson, MIami and perhaps Virginia waiting to see if FSU
can escape without paying exit penalties

[Norm2953]

In reading the various school boards, it appears the remaining Pac4 schools have a meeting with
the MWC to discuss merger options on Monday.

It does appear Stanford is merely going to attend these discussions out of respect for OSU/WSU
but is more likely to go independent but the entire Bay area despite being the #6 TV market,
is disinterested in anything less than a B1G invite.

I would suspect OSU/WSU will get their situations solved this week. Gonzaga is going to be a
school in real demand for they might get an invite to the B12, which might make the new
B12 a real powerhouse in basketball.

[PDXKnight]

In reading the various school boards, it appears the remaining Pac4 schools have a meeting with
the MWC to discuss merger options on Monday.

It does appear Stanford is merely going to attend these discussions out of respect for OSU/WSU
but is more likely to go independent but the entire Bay area despite being the #6 TV market,
is disinterested in anything less than a B1G invite.

I would suspect OSU/WSU will get their situations solved this week. Gonzaga is going to be a
school in real demand for they might get an invite to the B12, which might make the new
B12 a real powerhouse in basketball.

I'm not sure i get the basketball powerhouse mentality. I'd contend osu is a far better get given their football potential as a rising program and ties to the portland market

[PDXKnight]

To anyone expecting the civil war to continue I wouldn't hold your breath in the near future. In The oregon presser for the B1G Rob Mullens hinted that oregon would like to continue the rivalry but might be hard given the complexity of pre planned schedules. Thats code, to me, for we will try but it probably won't happen until we can plan it without dropping teams out of conference so probably 5-10 years till we see home and home football series' happen.

[Norm2953]

Stanford could go independent for I've read their endowment programs are enormous, in line
with all the power house programs.

The Big 12 with Gonzaga would be a powerhouse basketball conference, perhaps #1 if the ACC
ends up splintering . OSU/WSU are lightweights in the grand scheme of things for the Ducks in
the B1G would own the Portland TV market. They however might really elevate the MWC, especially
if the MWC ends up poaching some AAC schools to form an alternate conference to the big boys

These other conferences need to look ahead or else the B1G and SEC will swallow up the rest
with the ACC next up.

[JasonStern]

The ACC is the next conference that will be impacted for FSU is already making noises about
wanting out with North Carolina, Clemson, MIami and perhaps Virginia waiting to see if FSU
can escape without paying exit penalties

ESPN has the grant of rights for the ACC for another decade. Unless the teams can come up with some serious cash ($120M minimum, but potentially up to $300M), the only way they get out is if ESPN decides they want to let them out of their $40M/season deal out of kindness, which really doesn't sound like Disney.

I'm not sure i get the basketball powerhouse mentality. I'd contend osu is a far better get given their football potential as a rising program and ties to the portland market

The Pac12 (minus USC/UCLA) uneven revenue share document from ESPN leaked. UO/UW were at the top. OSU/Wazzu were at the bottom. The networks don't value OSU/Wazzu. If the Big 12 wanted them, they would have invites.

As for the basketball thing, two networks run college sports - ESPN and Fox. No Big 12 match up in football is going to compare to what the SEC and Big Ten can provide. So, what do you do as a conference to prove your worth to ESPN and Fox if you can't provide must see football games? You focus on the #2 sport - basketball. What Brett Yormark is doing given what he has to work with is brilliant. He totally outplayed the Pac12 at every single thing. I wish he was the Blazers GM.

To anyone expecting the civil war to continue I wouldn't hold your breath in the near future. In The oregon presser for the B1G Rob Mullens hinted that oregon would like to continue the rivalry but might be hard given the complexity of pre planned schedules. Thats code, to me, for we will try but it probably won't happen until we can plan it without dropping teams out of conference so probably 5-10 years till we see home and home football series' happen.

Great point. I totally forgot the Big Ten plays 9 conference games. Oregon has 3 (4 one year @ Hawai'i) until 2029. Oregon State has 3 out of conference opponents scheduled until 2028.

That said, if they wanted to, they could easily buyout the FCS cupcake game. Hey Idaho and Montana State, here's free money to not have to play a football game. Would they? That's a question for the accountants. Oregon obviously could. And it would be great for the fans. But you're also losing a guaranteed win and a chance to play backup players that wouldn't otherwise play. And if Oregon State gets relegated to a Mountain West deal, can they afford to break contracts? The TV networks could theoretically pay the buyout fees. But would they? I doubt it.

Stanford could go independent for I've read their endowment programs are enormous, in line
with all the power house programs.

The Big 12 with Gonzaga would be a powerhouse basketball conference, perhaps #1 if the ACC
ends up splintering . OSU/WSU are lightweights in the grand scheme of things for the Ducks in
the B1G would own the Portland TV market. They however might really elevate the MWC, especially
if the MWC ends up poaching some AAC schools to form an alternate conference to the big boys

These other conferences need to look ahead or else the B1G and SEC will swallow up the rest
with the ACC next up.

Stanford will have talks with all of the conferences, because that's what you do. You'd be foolish not to. But I agree that I see them going independent and probably dropping a few Olympic sports that don't drive revenue. But don't forget - as much as Uncle Phil is associated with Oregon, he also attended and has donated heavily to Stanford. I am sure they will end up fine. And pending Notre Dame joining the Big Ten, they have a seat. Get the conference to 20. Pods of 5. Makes total sense, but again Notre Dame somehow is gaming the system. Can't blame them for not wanting to join a super conference if they don't have to.

The one good thing for Oregon State/Wazzu is that there will always be at least one non-power conference playoff spot available. All you have to do is win that match up, then beat Boise State and SDSU, and you're probably in. Much easier path to a playoff appearance than the gauntlet UO/UW signed themselves up for.

[JasonStern]

But again, I am so for realignment and super conferences. We're going to get "must see TV" bowl level match ups EVERY SINGLE WEEK. You're telling me we could have Oregon/Wisconsin and Oregon/Michigan State every single year, but we just chose not to? I am sorry for everyone that is a fan of west coast football, but as a fan of college football - this is amazing. Oklahoma/Alabama - you don't think that I am tuning in for that? And that's what drives this. Provide marquee match ups, and you get the viewers. Get the viewers, and you get increased ad revenue. NIL era. Respect to players getting paid. It's a business now. G-league for the NFL.

I just don't want players doing the Dame thing of securing the bag, then entering the transfer portal.

[Wizenheimer]

In reading the various school boards, it appears the remaining Pac4 schools have a meeting with
the MWC to discuss merger options on Monday.

It does appear Stanford is merely going to attend these discussions out of respect for OSU/WSU
but is more likely to go independent but the entire Bay area despite being the #6 TV market,
is disinterested in anything less than a B1G invite.

I would suspect OSU/WSU will get their situations solved this week. Gonzaga is going to be a
school in real demand for they might get an invite to the B12, which might make the new
B12 a real powerhouse in basketball.

I'm not sure i get the basketball powerhouse mentality. I'd contend osu is a far better get given their football potential as a rising program and ties to the portland market

Gonzaga would be getting only a minimal share of football revenue, and maybe none. But they would be getting a big share of basketball revenue. And their perennial appearance in March Madness would generate a lot of revenue for the other conference teams

I think the Big-12 is looking at adding Gonzaga and Connecticut for basketball and that's probably a win-win for the two schools and the conference

the Beavers won't have the same kind of impact unless they came in on a 1/3-1/2 share. I'd be kind of surprised in the Big-12 has any interest in OSU, even for a massive discount. But anything is possible these days, I guess

[Wizenheimer]

Great point. I totally forgot the Big Ten plays 9 conference games. Oregon has 3 (4 one year @ Hawai'i) until 2029. Oregon State has 3 out of conference opponents scheduled until 2028.

That said, if they wanted to, they could easily buyout the FCS cupcake game. Hey Idaho and Montana State, here's free money to not have to play a football game. Would they? That's a question for the accountants. Oregon obviously could. And it would be great for the fans. But you're also losing a guaranteed win and a chance to play backup players that wouldn't otherwise play. And if Oregon State gets relegated to a Mountain West deal, can they afford to break contracts? The TV networks could theoretically pay the buyout fees. But would they? I doubt it..

the BIG doesn't allow it's teams to play FCS opponents so the Ducks will have to cancel any games they have scheduled with FCS after next season. So, they could make room in their OOC schedule for the Beavs

however, it would be completely idiotic for the Ducks to continue an annual home/home schedule with OSU. There will be no upside for Oregon, and no downside for the Beavs. It will be OSU's super-bowl every year, and it will be impossible to have it be the last game of the season. It would need to be front-loaded and be at the beginning of each season. And as we saw with Boise State, Oregon will be busy preparing for the Big-10 season during training camp while the Beavers will spend time just preparing for Oregon. I don't know why the Ducks would be stupid enough to schedule an annual trap game OOC that could derail a season before it gets going...be just dumber than dumb

the Ducks need to pay attention to what the elite programs do. In the last 10 non-covid seasons, this is what the OOC schedules of some elite schools has looked like:

Georgia: 33 home/7 road
Alabama: 39 home/1 road (lol...last time they played on the road OOC was 2011)
Ohio State: 33 home/4 road
Michigan: 29 home/5 road

and most of those road games occurred before 2018. The elite teams are simply being more protective of their OOC schedules; especially the SEC. Oregon played LSU, Auburn, and Georgia on the road. None of those teams will ever show up in Autzen. Oregon should never show up in Corvallis

[PDXKnight]

Great point. I totally forgot the Big Ten plays 9 conference games. Oregon has 3 (4 one year @ Hawai'i) until 2029. Oregon State has 3 out of conference opponents scheduled until 2028.

That said, if they wanted to, they could easily buyout the FCS cupcake game. Hey Idaho and Montana State, here's free money to not have to play a football game. Would they? That's a question for the accountants. Oregon obviously could. And it would be great for the fans. But you're also losing a guaranteed win and a chance to play backup players that wouldn't otherwise play. And if Oregon State gets relegated to a Mountain West deal, can they afford to break contracts? The TV networks could theoretically pay the buyout fees. But would they? I doubt it..

the BIG doesn't allow it's teams to play FCS opponents so the Ducks will have to cancel any games they have scheduled with FCS after next season. So, they could make room in their OOC schedule for the Beavs

however, it would be completely idiotic for the Ducks to continue an annual home/home schedule with OSU. There will be no upside for Oregon, and no downside for the Beavs. It will be OSU's super-bowl every year, and it will be impossible to have it be the last game of the season. It would need to be front-loaded and be at the beginning of each season. And as we saw with Boise State, Oregon will be busy preparing for the Big-10 season during training camp while the Beavers will spend time just preparing for Oregon. I don't know why the Ducks would be stupid enough to schedule an annual trap game OOC that could derail a season before it gets going...be just dumber than dumb

the Ducks need to pay attention to what the elite programs do. In the last 10 non-covid seasons, this is what the OOC schedules of some elite schools has looked like:

Georgia: 33 home/7 road
Alabama: 39 home/1 road (lol...last time they played on the road OOC was 2011)
Ohio State: 33 home/4 road
Michigan: 29 home/5 road

and most of those road games occurred before 2018. The elite teams are simply being more protective of their OOC schedules; especially the SEC. Oregon played LSU, Auburn, and Georgia on the road. None of those teams will ever show up in Autzen. Oregon should never show up in Corvallis

Man I wanted to continue the game but when you put it that way it makes sense. Might be hard in the interim anyhow given schedules being 10 years out quite often.

[Norm2953]

There is late talk tonight of OSU/SDS getting a B12 invite at a discounted rate. No mention of WSU

[Norm2953]

The word is the Big 12 preferred order is:

1) Stanford
2) SDS
3) OSU
4) WSU

Payout would be $20 million which is less money for OSU athletics to operate.

Highly unlikely Stanford would accept a B12 offer, for they are waiting for their B1G offer and
with their endowment programs, don't need B12 money. SDS has a $34 Million buyout to deal
with, so it does appear OSU will end up in the B12.

I don't know what is going on with Cal for they still don't seem to give a ****

[JasonStern]

There is late talk tonight of OSU/SDS getting a B12 invite at a discounted rate. No mention of WSU

I feel for Oregon State and Wazzu, but they're Mountain West bound. The Pac-4 needs at least 4 more teams to survive as a conference. And your options are AAC ($18M/team) and the Mountain West ($34M/team). Where does that money come from? Hey, Fox/ESPN! Can we have half a billion dollars to keep OSU/Wazzu/Cal/Stanford football alive, playing against inferior opponents?

[Norm2953]

The B1G and SEC are waiting for the ACC to implode with the big prizes being FSU, Clemson,
Miami, UNC and Virginia. Real chance the B12 might prefer to wait to see if they can pick
up the better of the remainder of the ACC schools

Jason Scheer who is an Arizona insider on twitter seems to be at the forefront on the ongoing
chaos in college football. It's felt the Pac 12 missed a golden opportunity when Texas/OU left
for the SEC to swallow up the remainder of the B12 to form the first 20 team conference

[Wizenheimer]

Jason Scheer who is an Arizona insider on twitter seems to be at the forefront on the ongoing
chaos in college football. It's felt the Pac 12 missed a golden opportunity when Texas/OU left
for the SEC to swallow up the remainder of the B12 to form the first 20 team conference

Pac-12 presidents voted a couple of years ago on whether or not to add several Big-12 teams to the PAC. Oregon's president voted yes. OSU and WSU presidents voted no. So did USC but then, they were covertly plotting to destroy the PAC

Oregon's president also was in favor of accepting the media deal that ESPN/FOX eventually offered the Big-12. Again, OSU/WSU/USC all said no

in other words, one of the reasons for the failure of the PAC was the hubris of OSU and WSU presidents. Oregon actually tried to save the PAC. But you won't hear that now as OSU and WSU are busy whining about what Oregon/Washington did. And the hubris may have consigned OSU/WSU to the Mountain West. Latest reporting is that the BIG-12 has no interest in OSU; and that the MWC is staying as is

when this first started to become clear last week, at first I was feeling bad for OSU. But as more info has come out and OSU power brokers and Beaver fans have ponted fingers at the UofO and spewed bile and venom at the Ducks, I've ended up being just fine with OSU sinking into the MWC swamp

[Wizenheimer]

The word is the Big 12 preferred order is:

1) Stanford
2) SDS
3) OSU
4) WSU

Payout would be $20 million which is less money for OSU athletics to operate.

Highly unlikely Stanford would accept a B12 offer, for they are waiting for their B1G offer and
with their endowment programs, don't need B12 money. SDS has a $34 Million buyout to deal
with, so it does appear OSU will end up in the B12.

I don't know what is going on with Cal for they still don't seem to give a ****

Read on Twitter

OSU to the BIG-12 is a pipe-dream

[Norm2953]

Stanford/Cal have been trying to get into the ACC(???) but seem to have hit a roadblock
with FSU/Clemson believing ACC expansion gives them out to get into the SEC/B1G

[Norm2953]

The guru on the Clemson 247 board is saying ACC expansion for Cal, Stanford and SMU is dead

Leaves for some interesting possibilities for ESPN still needs a window for late night football.

All this realignment is being driven by ESPN/Fox for the B12 basically does whatever the network tells
them to do. If they order the B12 to take OSU/WSU they'll do it for its unlikely Stanford would go
there. ND has been pushing the ACC to take Stanford but not being a member for football leaves
them with little leverage.

ESPN (Disney) and FOX after the ACC implodes will then setup the super conferences. It'll be
interesting if they set up the B1G and SEC to mirror the NFL's AFC/NFC with two 16 team
conferences.