Oregon & Washington (OT)

[PDXKnight]

I can't see either the Big-10 or SEC kicking teams out of the conference. That would be a real difficult task politically and may not survive legal challenges...and there would be legal challenges

however, I could certainly see a situation where the blue bloods...Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, maybe Oregon, maybe Mich State push really really hard for a bigger share of revenue over Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, etc. The blue bloods are the ones getting the big ratings which in turn drives media contracts.

Same thing in the SEC....Georgia and Alabama should be getting a bigger share than Vanderbilt

yeah i’ve often wondered this same issue myself, there is an obvious discrepancy between media market value of ohio state and northwestern and a split pie isn’t fair. Eventually the big schools who carry the television weight will inevitably demand it be a more fair system that recognizes the value that big names bring to a conference and those conferences will need to account for that in a quick way or suffer a death similar to the pac even if it meant the better brands build their own super conference free from the dead weights. Ultimately i think this scenario will be avoided as the blue bloods will get paid, and maybe once that money issue becomes more apparent schools like rutgers realizing the money won’t be there for them like it was and the losing hasn’t gotten any funner… will voluntarily go to another conference. But bare minimum no doubt they won’t get equal revenue at least if the Big 10 or SEC don’t have a death wish

I would think an uneven share distribution would still leave the 'tier 2' schools in a much better situation than being in any other conference

for instance, the BIG will be getting a new media deal in 2030. For the sake of argument, assume a static number of teams (I think there will be further expansion, but it's math I don't want to perform right now)

say that the first year base share for 18 teams is 75M/school. I can see a situation where the BIG says, according to the media partner (for example), there are 10 tier-2 teams an 8 tier-1 teams (being an Oregon fan of course I assume Oregon is tier 1)

so the BIG does a 'merit' split of payout where all 10 tier-2 teams get 10M less dropping them to 65M base 1st year. And the 8 tier-1 teams split the 100M taken from tier-2, 12.5M per school. Meaning tier-2 schools get a 65M payout which is just about guaranteed to be 25-30M more than they could get anywhere else. Meanwhile, the tier-1 schools will start with a 1st year base of 87-88M

it likely wouldn't be that wide of a gap, at least not 1st year; and the formula will likely be a lot more complicated. There might even be relegation where there was a process a tier-2 school could move up, and a tier 1 school could drop

I'd imagine oregon is tier one as well due to ratings. I think this system makes some sense but then there's outliers like ohio state Michigan and usc (ND?) who generate so much damn money they could almost be a tier 1A and then there's a tier 1 and 2 after that. Those potential top 4 could be easily worth double the rest on average (hypothetically, something like 1/2 more than tier 1 and could be quadruple tier 2 value).

Something like this for 2030 (in no particular order besides tiers)

Tier 1A: 120 million
Ohio state
Michigan
Usc
ND?

Tier 1:
Michigan state
Oregon
Washington
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nebraska
Penn state

Tier 2:
Ucla
Minnesota
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue
Northwestern
Rutgers
Maryland
Minnesota

I do agree things could be subject to change over time and perhaps the B1G views ucla Maryland Nebraska etc differently but I'd imagine 2030 will be something close to this with tiers as those top 4 independently could probably generate 90-120 million annually fairly handily

[Norm2953]

Remember by 2030, Phil Knight would be 92 years old and nobody knows how his heirs moving
forward, would regard Oregon athletics.

I do think the powers in the B1G/SEC to create the super conferences would just secede from their
conferences and from the NCAA. It'll be interesting who will have the seats at the big table for
Nick Saban will be 76 years old

[PDXKnight]

Remember by 2030, Phil Knight would be 92 years old and nobody knows how his heirs moving
forward, would regard Oregon athletics.

I do think the powers in the B1G/SEC to create the super conferences would just secede from their
conferences and from the NCAA. It'll be interesting who will have the seats at the big table for
Nick Saban will be 76 years old

All I know is I'm pretty confident oregon is in that final conference the rest of the details are second hand to me.

[JasonStern]

Stanford is a fun one to track now. Both Stanford and SMU applied for the ACC and said they would take ZERO dollars of the TV share. And there are escalators in the ACC's ESPN contract if they add teams. But the ACC TV deal is so bad that it only equates to ~$2.5M/school. So, their acceptance lost by one vote. NC State was one of them. Not sure who the other teams blocking them are.

Oregon State, Wazzu, and Cal still looking Mountain West or AAC bound. I'm hoping Mountain West. Kick Boise State's ass every year.

[Norm2953]

Stanford has a tremendous endowment program and does not need any share of the ACC's TV money,
but I would bet Cal ends up going with them, for they need a west coast partner.

[JasonStern]

Stanford has a tremendous endowment program and does not need any share of the ACC's TV money,
but I would bet Cal ends up going with them, for they need a west coast partner.

Cal didn't agree to a zero revenue share, which is why SMU became a viable alternative (that and the Texas market). They're honestly screwed. Their academic department is massively in debt, and they are looking AAC or Mountain West bound. Either of those won't provide the funding they need to keep all of their existing programs afloat. Academic university. Reasonable chance they just shut down a bunch of sports that don't drive revenue. Which is sad, but just like Jody Allen's Blazers - show me the money!

But $2.5M/school in the ACC to have to go out to Stanford and SMU would never provide the additional cash to justify it across all sports. And that's where I think those schools failed. Stanford can go independent in football and drop to the Mountain West/WCC for other sports. That's probably their best bet until Notre Dame is pressured into the Big Ten.

Cal/Oregon State/Wazzu? Completely screwed. Relegated to the Mountain West or AAC. Which again, isn't really as bad as it sounds. Playoff expanded to 12 teams. Oregon State this season would win the Mountain West and probably get a playoff bid. Mike Leach's Wazzu teams would probably do the same. Again, presuming auto-bids.

[Norm2953]

ACC looks to be the next league to implode for FSU and likely Clemson are looking for a way out.
Keep an eye on North Carolina, Miami and Virginia joining them in the SEC/B1G

I'd be curious to see how Duke fares for they are an elite CBB program but mediocre CFB program.

[SweaterBae]

Jason Scheer who is an Arizona insider on twitter seems to be at the forefront on the ongoing
chaos in college football. It's felt the Pac 12 missed a golden opportunity when Texas/OU left
for the SEC to swallow up the remainder of the B12 to form the first 20 team conference

Pac-12 presidents voted a couple of years ago on whether or not to add several Big-12 teams to the PAC. Oregon's president voted yes. OSU and WSU presidents voted no. So did USC but then, they were covertly plotting to destroy the PAC

Oregon's president also was in favor of accepting the media deal that ESPN/FOX eventually offered the Big-12. Again, OSU/WSU/USC all said no

in other words, one of the reasons for the failure of the PAC was the hubris of OSU and WSU presidents. Oregon actually tried to save the PAC. But you won't hear that now as OSU and WSU are busy whining about what Oregon/Washington did. And the hubris may have consigned OSU/WSU to the Mountain West. Latest reporting is that the BIG-12 has no interest in OSU; and that the MWC is staying as is

when this first started to become clear last week, at first I was feeling bad for OSU. But as more info has come out and OSU power brokers and Beaver fans have ponted fingers at the UofO and spewed bile and venom at the Ducks, I've ended up being just fine with OSU sinking into the MWC swamp

I'm not hating, but can you please state sources?

[Norm2953]

And now there are two Pac 12 schools left for 2024 with Stanford, Cal and SMU headed to the ACC.

It'll be interesting to see what OSU/WSU do for presumably they're going to work together to land
somewhere

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

Jason Scheer who is an Arizona insider on twitter seems to be at the forefront on the ongoing
chaos in college football. It's felt the Pac 12 missed a golden opportunity when Texas/OU left
for the SEC to swallow up the remainder of the B12 to form the first 20 team conference

Pac-12 presidents voted a couple of years ago on whether or not to add several Big-12 teams to the PAC. Oregon's president voted yes. OSU and WSU presidents voted no. So did USC but then, they were covertly plotting to destroy the PAC

Oregon's president also was in favor of accepting the media deal that ESPN/FOX eventually offered the Big-12. Again, OSU/WSU/USC all said no

in other words, one of the reasons for the failure of the PAC was the hubris of OSU and WSU presidents. Oregon actually tried to save the PAC. But you won't hear that now as OSU and WSU are busy whining about what Oregon/Washington did. And the hubris may have consigned OSU/WSU to the Mountain West. Latest reporting is that the BIG-12 has no interest in OSU; and that the MWC is staying as is

when this first started to become clear last week, at first I was feeling bad for OSU. But as more info has come out and OSU power brokers and Beaver fans have ponted fingers at the UofO and spewed bile and venom at the Ducks, I've ended up being just fine with OSU sinking into the MWC swamp

I'm not hating, but can you please state sources?

the 8-4 vote on adding Big-12 teams was a matter of record. It was well reported

I was told by a pretty solid source Oregon was in favor of accepting the ESPN deal and OSU/WSU/ASU were against.

[JasonStern]

USC wanted an uneven revenue share on the next media contract. The league voted against it, and they bolted with UCLA.

The Big 12 was facing extinction with Texas and Oklahoma leaving, and instead poached some teams and went to market a year before the Pac-12. ESPN is now losing money and laying off staff, so those huge deals are no longer financially viable.

The rumor is that ESPN offered the remaining Pac-X teams $30M/school and the Pac-X shot it down, demanding $50M/school - which was never going to happen without the L.A. schools. SDSU was rumored to be added. Same with SMU on a similar zero revenue share deal they accepted with the ACC. Get back to 12 teams. Get 2 more TV markets. The Pac-X then overplayed their hand, and ESPN walked.

What we do know from a leaked document was that ESPN proposed an uneven revenue share, with Oregon/Washington getting high $30Ms, Stanford/Cal (Bay Area) getting less, Utah/Colorado/Arizona/ASU getting less, and OSU/Wazzu getting Mountain West money. The irony here is that with conference realignment, that's pretty much exactly what ended up happening. (Cash rules everything around me)

Stanford, Cal, and SMU to the ACC isn't about expansion. It's about protecting the media deal should FSU, Clemson, and UNC bolt. NC State was the school that flipped, and they did so because there was no guarantee that they had a landing spot if the ACC disbanded.

Oregon State and Wazzu have a standing offer to join the Mountain West, but are holding out for a Big 12 offer that probably is not going to happen. Both are solid football teams, but they lack the TV markets that ESPN and FOX crave. It's the same reason why Boise State remains in the Mountain West.

UNLV remains a huge question mark, as they have a solid TV market and now play in an NFL stadium. I suspect that, after SDSU, they are at the top of the line for expansion. But the goal of the TV markets isn't expansion. It's to make one 64-team super league with two divisions (ESPN vs. FOX). And then have a subdivision of the remaining FBS teams. Basically turn college sports into a junior NFL. If ESPN/FOX had total power, a lot of schools that don't drive ratings would be kicked out of conferences. Do you really think ESPN wants to pay Vanderbilt?

The takeaway from all of this is that conference realignment is fairly dumb. But the Pac-X was so poorly managed, both at the conference and college president level, that I'm actually all for the Pac-X disbanding. I have way more faith in Oregon being in the Big Ten than in a George K. Pac-X. And I'm excited for the potential bowl level matchups it will provide. I really hope an Oregon/Wisconsin rivalry forms. Those games are always fun. And their fans can drink with best of us.

[JasonStern]

Veering off of conference realignment, damn the Pac-12 looks stacked this year. As an Oregon fan, I'm not worried about Texas Tech (lost to Wyoming) or Hawai'i. But Colorado looks like it will really test our secondary. Stanford is always a trap game for some reason. Washington looks amazing. Washington State put up 50 on the road. Utah took down Florida. Cal put up 58 on the road. USC blew out Nevada. Arizona State is on the road. And DJ U is Oregon State's Bo Nix. Not as easy of a schedule as I was expecting, which sucks because this was supposed to be Oregon's best chance to sneak into the playoffs. Probably lose to Georgia 45-3 in the first game. But make the playoffs. Now it looks like the Pac-12 is just going to eat itself and wind up with probably three 10-win teams that end up out of playoff contention.

[Wizenheimer]

USC wanted an uneven revenue share on the next media contract. The league voted against it, and they bolted with UCLA.

I'm confused by this...what vote?

what I understand it that USC wanted uneven revenue sharing in 2011 when the PAC signed that 3B/12-year media deal, but went along with the majority and agreed to an equal split. I think it's pretty clear at this point that when USC led the fight against expansion in 2021, and against accepting the ESPN offer in 2022, they were planning their exit and doing everything they could to hamstring what was left of the PAC, especially Oregon.

What we do know from a leaked document was that ESPN proposed an uneven revenue share, with Oregon/Washington getting high $30Ms, Stanford/Cal (Bay Area) getting less, Utah/Colorado/Arizona/ASU getting less, and OSU/Wazzu getting Mountain West money. The irony here is that with conference realignment, that's pretty much exactly what ended up happening. (Cash rules everything around me)

I must have missed that...do you have a link?

Oregon State and Wazzu have a standing offer to join the Mountain West, but are holding out for a Big 12 offer that probably is not going to happen.

I don't think either school has any hope of joining the Big-12. That conference has bluntly shot down any and all offers from the two schools. What OSU/WSU are waiting for is clarity from attorney's and actuaries about exactly how much in assets and liabilities the PAC has coming in 2024-2029. They want to see if it would be worth the effort to try and keep the PAC alive and for them to share a two-way split of any future revenue (like March Madness money which has a wonky distribution formula). But apparently, it's very complex and it's hard to get a handle on

for instance, reportedly, last fall the PAC-12 signed a 10 year lease on the facilities for the Pac-12 network. Rumors were the 'landlord' was smart and inserted an extreme financially punitive provision in the lease for early termination. That's one of those liabilities and there are other liabilities associated with the Pac-12 network, which has been one of Larry Scott's big mistakes

The takeaway from all of this is that conference realignment is fairly dumb. But the Pac-X was so poorly managed, both at the conference and college president level, that I'm actually all for the Pac-X disbanding. I have way more faith in Oregon being in the Big Ten than in a George K. Pac-X. And I'm excited for the potential bowl level matchups it will provide. I really hope an Oregon/Wisconsin rivalry forms. Those games are always fun. And their fans can drink with best of us.

I'm really sad the PAC has dissolved. I grew up on Pac-8/Pac-10/Pac-12 sports. I went to the UofO when Dan Fouts was QB and Pre was running around Hayward Field. When dual T&F meets were a big thing. When Stan Love was Oregon's C.

when all this came down I was feeling a little bad for OSU. But after all the bile and venom and blame OSU officials and fans have skunk-sprayed at Oregon over the last 6 weeks (and decades too!), my reservoir of sympathy is empty. I don't care about OSU or their fans at all. Enjoy the MWC

[JasonStern]

USC wanted an uneven revenue share on the next media contract. The league voted against it, and they bolted with UCLA.

I'm confused by this...what vote?

what I understand it that USC wanted uneven revenue sharing in 2011 when the PAC signed that 3B/12-year media deal, but went along with the majority and agreed to an equal split. I think it's pretty clear at this point that when USC led the fight against expansion in 2021, and against accepting the ESPN offer in 2022, they were planning their exit and doing everything they could to hamstring what was left of the PAC, especially Oregon.

Per Wilner (who is annoying and has some terrible football takes, but does seem to have or at least fake contacts in the Pac-12 office), USC asked for uneven revenue share in the next TV contract. Other schools weren't going to budge on taking less money to appease USC. That's why he wasn't as surprised as everybody when USC bolted to the Big Ten.

What we do know from a leaked document was that ESPN proposed an uneven revenue share, with Oregon/Washington getting high $30Ms, Stanford/Cal (Bay Area) getting less, Utah/Colorado/Arizona/ASU getting less, and OSU/Wazzu getting Mountain West money. The irony here is that with conference realignment, that's pretty much exactly what ended up happening. (Cash rules everything around me)

I must have missed that...do you have a link?

I'm afraid not. It was on twitter months ago. When stuff like that leaks to less credible journalists, it's usually either 1) fake or 2) done for some business politic reason. Wilner also said that the Pac-X would never have agreed to uneven revenue distribution, as doing so would likely drive the four corner schools to the Big 12.

Clownzano did write an article about how uneven revenue sharing would probably have looked:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-geeking-out-on-the-media

Oregon State and Wazzu have a standing offer to join the Mountain West, but are holding out for a Big 12 offer that probably is not going to happen.

I don't think either school has any hope of joining the Big-12. That conference has bluntly shot down any and all offers from the two schools. What OSU/WSU are waiting for is clarity from attorney's and actuaries about exactly how much in assets and liabilities the PAC has coming in 2024-2029. They want to see if it would be worth the effort to try and keep the PAC alive and for them to share a two-way split of any future revenue (like March Madness money which has a wonky distribution formula). But apparently, it's very complex and it's hard to get a handle on

Right. If the Big 12 wanted OSU/Wazzu, they'd be future members. Corvallis and Pullman just aren't big enough TV markets and have terrible logistics for the Big 12. But the Mountain West wants them if they need a home:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38314274/mountain-west-made-pitches-oregon-state-washington-state

The problem with rebuilding the Pac-X is the only conferences they could realistically poach from are the AAC and Mountain West. But the AAC has a $10M buyout fee and 27 month notice period. Mountain West has a $30M buyout fee. Those schools don't have that kind of money. And the conference doesn't - at least not to get to the minimum of 8. And the TV/streaming contract still wouldn't be that great, as the new Pac-X would just be OSU/Wazzu plus some Mountain West/AAC teams.

[JasonStern]

Latest rumor:

Read on Twitter

[Norm2953]

Interesting to read about OSU/WSU taking the rest of the Pac 12 to court, which presumably is
about the leftover assets of the Pac 12/network. Those assets might be enough to tide both
over OSU/WSU until a new media deal for a new Pac 12 with the MWC schools.

https://247sports.com/college/oregon-state/article/oregon-state-washington-state-legal-action-toward-departing-members-215669082/

Lawsuit was filed in Whitman county and the only judge in that county is the the former President of a
WSU cougar club in that county

[Norm2953]

OSU/WSU did get that TRO on the rest of the Pac12 as reported by ESPN, preventing the rest
of the Pac12 from dissolving the Pac12.

It'll be interesting if this goes to trial for discovery could expose what part ESPN (Disney) and Fox
had in breaking up the conference. It'll be interesting if discovery shows ESPN/Fox working to
keep Apple TV out of college football and working to set up the long rumored super conferences.

[Wizenheimer]

OSU/WSU did get that TRO on the rest of the Pac12 as reported by ESPN, preventing the rest
of the Pac12 from dissolving the Pac12.

It'll be interesting if this goes to trial for discovery could expose what part ESPN (Disney) and Fox
had in breaking up the conference. It'll be interesting if discovery shows ESPN/Fox working to
keep Apple TV out of college football and working to set up the long rumored super conferences.

if OSU/WSU want an equitable outcome, all they would have to do is reach a settlement with the other 10 teams that all revenue, assets, AND liabilities generated by all 12 teams gets distributed evenly...to all 12 teams

my guess is the last thing OSU/WSU want is the PAC's assets, liabilities, AND brand tied up in litigation. Not if they want a reverse-merger with the MWC any time soon

as for what might be revealed in discovery, it's hard to say. I'm not sure if anything media did, even working to exclude another competitor is illegal. If it looks like it might get to that I'd wonder if the PAC would apply to have the case moved to federal court under the diversity jurisdiction clause. I can't imagine OSU/WSU would want this situation stalled for years because of the molasses slow pace of federal litigation

[Norm2953]

That's the solution OSU/WSU wanted to avoid, which is an even split of the assets of the Pac12
The TRO keeps the 10 schools who are leaving to vote to dissolve the Pac12, this week. There
apparently is precedent for USC/UCLA who left last year, were kicked out of voting on Pac12
business meetings.

I think it will get settled for this all about coming up with enough money to maintain OSU/WSU at
their current levels for the next two seasons until a media deal with a new Pac12 with the MWC
schools gets done.

[Wizenheimer]

That's the solution OSU/WSU wanted to avoid, which is an even split of the assets of the Pac12
The TRO keeps the 10 schools who are leaving to vote to dissolve the Pac12, this week. There
apparently is precedent for USC/UCLA who left last year, were kicked out of voting on Pac12
business meetings.

I think it will get settled for this all about coming up with enough money to maintain OSU/WSU at
their current levels for the next two seasons until a media deal with a new Pac12 with the MWC
schools gets done.

that's a little distorted and not really any precedent. The only business USC/UCLA were excluded from (an exclusion they didn't challenge) were negotiations and input on the next media deal

as for a settlement, I don't think it's going to be that easy. The 6 year pool of money for the NCAA BB tournament could be in the 120-150M range. Bowl games this season could generate another 150M (the Rose Bowl alone could pay 75-80M to the PAC if it have a team participating)

those are not the only sources of revenue either, just the most significant. So we could be talking about a pool of money in the 250-300M range. 20-25M/school. The 10 departing schools aren't going to roll over and give that to the PAC-2...not without a fight

that's especially true considering OSU's president this weeken was quoted as saying that only OSU/WSU should control PAC business....even though the current Pac-12 calendar goes thru next August

this has the potential to be a very messy divorce