So… are we really gonna be THAT bad?

[DC_Melo]

Look, I’m not coming on here saying we’re world beaters or contenders by any stretch. This is a young roster with minimal time to gel and growing pains on the horizon. I think a majority of NBA fans and pundits view us as bottom dwellers in the West, which we may very well be.

But looking at the talent on this roster… I really feel we are more along the lines of a play-in team capable of a 7-10 seed.

Simons, Grant, and Ayton are all 5+ year veterans that are more often than not net positive players. Each with skills that give opposing teams challenges to defend. Motivated Ayton anchored a defense that led the Suns to a Finals run in ‘21.

Sharpe is an unknown, but he looked pretty damn good in extended minutes last season. Even assuming his progress is moderate for the season (around 13/4/3 on slightly improved efficiency), that’s another potential net-positive contributor.

Thybulle and especially Timelord are already positive contributing role players that really fortify our defense and provide hustle play.

And then there’s Scoot. Historically, roughly 2.5 rookies in any given draft class are net positive players. It’s RARE! So I get why nobody expects anything out of Scoot yet… but if any rookie in this draft class is going to be a positive contributor from the get go, I think Scoot has as good of a chance as anyone not named Chet (who is from last year’s class technically) or Wemby.

He has an NBA frame with elite athleticism and fantastic handles and vision. He has already played 2 years of pro ball and is by all accounts mature beyond his years, which is believable if u listen to the kid in interviews. He is as NBA ready as anyone in this class.

Who knows about the rest of our roster… it’s filled with young unknowns hungry to carve out a role in this league. I think Walker and Murray have the best chance to contribute immediately.

But that brings to question… with a weak draft class upcoming, and a roster already full of young talent and prospects, does tanking even make that much sense this season? Or would it be better to push for a winning culture and focus on developing what we already have?

So I’m gonna say it now, we’re playing for a play in spot this year, not ping balls… Go Blazers!

Edit: I didn’t include Brogdon because I don’t know how long he’ll be on the roster.

[PDXKnight]

Not that bad but also not that good, around 32 wins

[Moonbeam]

The Blazers are going to be baaaaad, IMO. 20-25 wins bad. Hope I’m wrong.

[m0ng0]

The Blazers are going to be baaaaad, IMO. 20-25 wins bad. Hope I’m wrong.

If we see significant improvement by the end of the year I would be thrilled with 25 wins, that's almost a perfect scenario, one more draft to fit in more pieces. No matter what it's gonna be fun to watch, we are going to watch a new team build from the ground up with a lot of talented pieces growing together, who becomes alpha, who becomes the 6th man, what is our personality going to be, are we run and gun? tough defense? A hybrid? I think Schmitz is the team builder, Cronin facilities and Chauncey determines the style. In some ways getting the old guard out will open up endless possibilities in how we play.

It's a blank canvas in many ways.

[Wizenheimer]

I know everybody thinks I'm negative about the Blazers all the time. If I was I'd predict 24 wins. I'm predicting 33 wins. Same as last year although Portland won't have to deliberately tank to hit that mark

[DeBlazerRiddem]

If Scoot has a phenomenal ROY type season, we have good health and we don't trade away our vets mid-season I can see this team being a play-in team.

Ant, Grant and Ayton aren't winning you anything in the post-season but they aren't shameful NBA players and Thybulle, Brogdon and Williams all know their role. That is a lot of the bases covered to not be a bottom-out terrible team.

Again it will take Scoot really playing well and positive contributions from Sharpe/Walker/Murray but its not inconceivable. Chicago is certainly rooting for us.

[zzaj]

DC Melo...I'm sniffing what you're stepping in. I sure HOPE they don't play themselves into the play-in. I want that draft pick to be as low as possible. However, I think that they have the potential to be a bit better on defense than they were the past few years, which might end up evening out some of the loss of Lillard.

I'm going to say 30 wins to be safe, but if this ended up being a 42 win team I wouldn't be shocked. That would require great health, Chauncey to get his head out of his a$$, and of course both Scoot and Sharpe to play like better than average NBA starters--all tall asks.

[Norm2953]

It does depend on Ayton for he has all the physical skills to be a top 10 center.

[ebott]

Looking at last year's Western conference standings the Bottom 5 were, us, Jazz, Mavs, Rockets and Spurs. The Rockets are definitely going to be better. We got worse. The Jazz will be better if they don't tank. Maybe the Mavs too. Even if we do our best to win, we're gonna have a hell of a time getting anywhere near the playoffs.

[Sinobas]

Barring significant injuries, I think the Blazers will win 41 games and make the play in. I don't think we're going to see another tanking effort, and some point you have to try to start winning.

[RTG HD]

Barring significant injuries, I think the Blazers will win 41 games and make the play in. I don't think we're going to see another tanking effort, and some point you have to try to start winning.

I agree. I believe that Scoot is "that guy" and see no reason we can not go out and be competitive. If our biggest "problem" is finding playing time for our big guys I think we are doing well.

[The Sebastian Express]

We are going to be bad and it will be glorious. Come on top five pick.

No one should be rooting or wanting the Blazers making the playin or even sniffing it.

[JRoy]

27 wins.

A few close wins, more close losses and a season to take a good long look at the young guys.

Ayton will have some big games.

[Jsun947]

Draft Kings has over/unders at

Celtics 55.5
Bucks 54.5
Nuggets 53.5
Suns 51.5
Cavs 50.5
76ers 49.5
Warriors 47.5
Lakers 47.5
Clippers 46.5
Heat 46.5
Knicks 45.5
Mavs 45.5
Grizz 45.5
Wolves 44.5
Pelicans 44.5
Thunder 44.5
Kings 44.5
Hawks 42.5
Pacers 38.5
Nets 37.5
Bulls 37.5
Magic 36.5
Raptors 36.5
Jazz 35.5
Rockets 31.5
Hornets 31.5
Spurs 29.5
Blazers 28.5
Pistons 28.5
Wizards 24.5

That’s 11 teams in the west over 44 wins and Blazers 2nd to last in the conference and tied for second worst in the League.

And we all know if we have a chance to throw a few weeks at the end of a season we’re going to do it. And I also would bet on Grant and Brogdon being traded before the deadline for future picks.

This is a solid under for me

[DC_Melo]

I guess I’m the one a bit too rosy here lol

I respect everyone’s opinions and am not surprised the majority view us as being on the outside looking in.

I am a little surprised how many think we’ll be in the 20–25 win tier. That’s a baaaaaaaad team lol… like Telfair era Blazers bad. Back when our best player was a black hole that astrologists eventually named Z-BO50.

I just don’t see how a Simons, Grant, Ayton baseline, plus some other decent rotational pieces will be that bad.

Out of curiousity, if we switched Dame with Scoot, how many wins would this current team get? Whatever your response to that is, subtract -12 (based on Dame’s Wins Above Replacement Average). The number u get is roughly the number of wins you would expect to get from this squad going from Dame to Scoot.

[m0ng0]

It's really depends on how quickly this team gels, I'm guessing it's gonna be a work in progress

[Case2012]

I didn’t enjoy tanking the last few years. I’m still furious over Cronin’s lying to us especially after hearing he told Dame to beat it when he tried to rescind his trade request. The most loyal player in blazer history got shown the door by some hack executive. Unbelievable. I was hoping and praying Dame would change his mind and he actually did, but that clown still traded him for IMO garbage. I’m not going to support this team until it’s sold to someone that cares about winning. Chauncey is a terrible coach, Cronin is a lying trash GM and Jody is a greedy owner that only cares about money. I predict we win 15-20 games, but I’m probably not gonna watch them, Instead I’ll be rooting for the bucks I guess.

[Jsun947]

I guess I’m the one a bit too rosy here lol

I respect everyone’s opinions and am not surprised the majority view us as being on the outside looking in.

I am a little surprised how many think we’ll be in the 20–25 win tier. That’s a baaaaaaaad team lol… like Telfair era Blazers bad. Back when our best player was a black hole that astrologists eventually named Z-BO50.

I just don’t see how a Simons, Grant, Ayton baseline, plus some other decent rotational pieces will be that bad.

Out of curiousity, if we switched Dame with Scoot, how many wins would this current team get? Whatever your response to that is, subtract -12 (based on Dame’s Wins Above Replacement Average). The number u get is roughly the number of wins you would expect to get from this squad going from Dame to Scoot.

I think 28 is probably about right but we’ll tank at the end of the season which drops us a few more.

Williams can’t play with Ayton. I’m not certain Sharpe is ready for a prominent role in an offense yet. Scoot is going to take time to become a real floor general. We don’t have a rotation level NBA small forward on the roster, and if you think it’s Grant then we don’t have a rotation level NBA power forward. Simons is better as a point guard then a shooting guard. This team has serious problems and we’re likely going to make them worse.

[Moonbeam]

I guess I’m the one a bit too rosy here lol

I respect everyone’s opinions and am not surprised the majority view us as being on the outside looking in.

I am a little surprised how many think we’ll be in the 20–25 win tier. That’s a baaaaaaaad team lol… like Telfair era Blazers bad. Back when our best player was a black hole that astrologists eventually named Z-BO50.

I just don’t see how a Simons, Grant, Ayton baseline, plus some other decent rotational pieces will be that bad.

Out of curiousity, if we switched Dame with Scoot, how many wins would this current team get? Whatever your response to that is, subtract -12 (based on Dame’s Wins Above Replacement Average). The number u get is roughly the number of wins you would expect to get from this squad going from Dame to Scoot.

I don't agree that Simons, Grant, and Ayton are necessarily positive players that provide some sort of reasonable floor for the team.

Simons has negative on/off splits for all but the last 2 seasons, and we tanked the end of the last 2 seasons to inflate those values. His on numbers were negative for the past 2 years when Portland was trying to win. He scores points on roughly league average efficiency, which is valuable, but he hasn't shown himself to be capable of truly impacting the game as a scorer yet. His playmaking is ok for a shooting guard, but nothing to write home about. His defense is what it is. I like Ant, but I hope Portland trades him to a team that believes he can be a star --- I don't have faith he can be one.

Grant was a positive contributor as a glue guy/4th option type, but he hasn't amounted to a positive impact player in a larger role. Portland will likely be relying on him to be one of the main offensive options again this season.

Ayton is a bit of a mystery, and probably the one guy among those three who has the biggest potential to be a star-level player. But with so many moving parts and Chauncey coaching, I don't know if he'll get here.

Honestly, it's Timelord who would give me the most hope of Portland surprising next year. He brings a lot of value in unheralded ways, particularly on defense, that could allow Portland to compete.

I'm sorry if I sound negative --- I don't like being that way. I am excited to see the team develop and am all aboard the youth movement now. But I don't see how Portland isn't one of the 3-5 worst teams in the league this season.

[The Sebastian Express]

Yes this season is a learning season and I'm hopeful to pump up the value of Ant and Grant. I don't personally see Grant lasting here past the trade deadline or draft. I'm hoping we can get a protected pick from a contender for him at the deadline.

I think we all know how I feel about Ant - think he'd be great sixth man, don't think they want to use him that way, I don't think he can run the offense and I don't want to rehash the Dame/CJ experience but with Scoot/Ant. So I just say I'll hope we can find him a home where he can shine for who he is and get some value.