Late-night LeBron Musings

[Wizenheimer]

Wizenheimer: Two things I seem to consider far more probable than you do:

1. Aldridge and Roy being signed next summer to extensions to take effect beginning in the 2010-2011 season. I think this is 100% certain. There is absolutely no reason to suspect they will not follow in the footsteps of Howard, Bosh, Wade, LeBron, Melo, Paul, Williams, and any other high-profile young player in the past several years who have agreed to contract extensions in during the summer prior to their restricted free agency. I'm not sure why you doubt this. Additionally, I did not rely on any "Portland-liking" factor in my consideration of Aldridge's contract. Numbers of 16/6 (this year so far) or 17/8 (last year) while playing third banana in terms of overall team importance simply do not translate into a max deal, or really anything close to it. I will now reiterate my belief that Josh Smith's fresh contract is a perfect model.

josh smith's contract is the perfect model?...then you might want to check when he signed it: it was in the summer following his 4th season; he was RFA. If LMA follows the perfect model he won't sign this summer...he'll wait. He could then at least talk to other teams to guage his value.

But even if he signs this summer, the difference between your "perfect model" low end and my "practical" high end is 3 million. If the contract falls somewhere in between, that would only mean a 1-2 million difference in available cap-space and if it only bumps space from 8-9 million up to 9.5-10.5 million, it's not that significant.

Your 100% certainty may seem compelling to you, I'm not so persuaded. And I don't know that even KP would be 100% certain of negotiation success right now. I think Aldridge may be a little different cat then brandon roy and assuming he's going to be an easy signing is likely a mistake.

2. The Blazers' roster being largely static over the next two seasons. Whether or not the free agent summer of 2010 is even in KP's top 10 list of things to think about, I strongly believe that no significant trades or free agent signings will occur in the next two season that would affect our long-term salary commitments. Both Outlaw's and Blake's contracts fit with this plan, as their affordable team options will be exercised for the 2009-2010 season. I believe our top eleven players next year will be Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, Oden, Sergio, Rudy, Batum, Outlaw, Joel, and Bayless (look familiar?). I believe Koponen and Freeland will be the 12th and 13th men and no one in the last two spots will have a commitment beyond next season. I believe that with youngsters Bayless, Batum, Koponen, and Freeland in the fold, KP will trade out of next year's draft completely and stockpile assets that will become even higher picks in the future.

first, kaponen and freeland were 1st round picks so if they are signed, it will be for a guaranteed 2 seasons minimum. They'd each have salaries of over a million so there goes your cap-savings on the difference between your projection of LMA's contract and mine.

Next, I don't dispute that portland could have some cap-space in 2010 if KP really wanted to extend the timeline. The roster would stay pretty much the same as it is now, except for Diogu (no loss) and Frye. And the Blazers could even extend the QO to frye and if he accepts they could have him for next season and cut him lose in the 2010 off-season. And the Blazers relieving themselves of draft picks is no big deal. I anticipate they will this next draft, but I also anticipate the draft maneuvers will also be part of this summer's cap-space moves.

Rather, I dispute the level of cap-space portland would have, and the wisdom of deferring upgrades to the roster for another 2 years. I also don't believe for a moment that the free agent list for 2010 will be nearly as large and drool-inducing as it is now. Amd I also see at least a dozen (if not more) teams headed for substantial cap-space that summer. It will be a sellers market and the total amount of cap-space league wide will substantially reduce the value of an individual team's cap-space.

That's a primary reason why I think portland should use their near-certain cap-space this summer. There will only be 2 or 3 other teams with substantial cap-space this summer and a couple of them may very well save it for 2010. Meanwhile, those teams wanting to increase their 2010 leverage or other teams wanting to get into the sweepstakes will be inclined to look at Portland's 20 million in cap-space along with the 5 draft picks as well as all the young players on discount contracts as a perfect trading partner.

So, my roster now consists of Roy, Webster, Aldridge, Oden, Rudy, Batum, Przybilla, Bayless, Freeland, and Koponen. That is 10 players (not your 8). If Roy's and Aldridge's extensions sum to $23M in the first year, the total payroll for these ten players is $48.4M. It seems, then, that if their extensions add instead to $27M, we agree pretty closely on your $52M figure. If we split the difference and shed Joel's $7.4M, we would have a nine-man roster worth approximately $43M. If the cap is $61M or anything over it, we could offer LeBron James the maximum free agent contract. QED.

both times, I have assumed 26 million for roy and aldridge.

26,000,000....roy 7 aldridge
$7,405,300....pryz
$6,796,524....oden
$4,800,000....webster
$2,292,600....bayless
$1,246,680....rudy
$1,196,760....batum
$2,200,000....kaponen and freeland
$1,000,000....cap-holds for roster spots

53,000,000.....with a projected 60 million cap, that's only 7 million in cap space. Subtracting Pryzbilla doesn't yield 7.4 million, but rather 6.9 million because of adding another roster spot cap-hold. That leaves portland with a shade under 14 million in cap-space while the max-contract for a 7 year vet would be 18 million. That's not much leverage, especially for a small market team. And it would leave portland's only hope (other then Aldridge signing at a discount) being a higher salary cap number which isn't a good hope considering the economy. I've read several projections that the cap could actually drop this summer.

IMO, there is simply too much that could torpedo a plan that already requires perfect karma in order to work out well. Right now, this summer's plan is a much better bet, If Darius Miles actually plays this season, then maybe the 2010 idea becomes a little more viable compared to the 2009 option, but not by much.

[TowelBoy12]

As I'm sure you're aware, I did not mean "perfect model" in the sense that all of the conditions under which Josh Smith signed his contract would be duplicated when Aldridge signs his; you're just not that dense. Josh Smith proved to be 5 year/$55M type player and I think that in itself makes Aldridge a 5 year/$55M type player. I'm not denying that a great number of factors may likely come into play. I'm just saying we really don't have much else to go on. For the third time, you have yet to give me compelling reason to accept your $12M figure.

Also, according to storyteller, Koponen and Freeland make 824,000 the first year they play and 886,000 the second year. Not sure where your numbers came from.

With the ~$3M Aldridge discrepancy and over a half a million with the other two, we essentially agree on everything, so there's no real reason to continue arguing over it. I have never advocated in this thread any sort of "roster-gutting" maneuver or anything that would be considered a "gamble." In that sense, I'm not really outlining a "plan", and certainly not a plan that "requires perfect karma in order to work out well." If anything occurs different than I've predicted (trading Raef for a long-term deal like Hinrich, failing to extend Aldridge a year ahead of time, signing a FA this summer) then we can agree to scrap this thread and move on. I think KP will continue to make every move with a simultaneous eye toward short- and long-term success. I simply happen to think that we will continue winning such that overpaying for Shawn Marion this summer simply to make a splash will make little sense.

Good point about Frye. I had not considered that he could play here for the one-year QO and not require a longer commitment. Same for Diogu, I suppose.

[SabasRevenge!]

I've heard people say that over half of the league could be under the cap in 2010. That means there will be a lot of disappointed teams and some mediocre players signing nice contracts.

I still don't believe that top tier guys will sign outright with a new team when a S&T could be worked out to give them more money, more years, and give the team that drafted them something in return. Yeah, both teams and the player have to agree to the S&T, but there is good incentive for all three parties to come to an agreement.

IMO the teams that will be in the best position to land a major player over the next couple of years are teams with a combination of expiring contracts, cap space, rookie contracts, and promising young players. Right now we've got all of those things but cap space. Next year we'll have the cap space but limited expirings.

We're by far the best positioned to send back value for a megastar who is freshly signed to a 7-year max extension and we will be for the next couple of years.

I've got absolutely no problem with us standing pat, but I like the flexibility and massive amount of talent that has been assembled because it makes us an attractive trading partner, especially to a team that is faced with losing a top-5 player.