Oden & His Peers

[Wizenheimer]

a little more the 1/7th through the season and I thought I'd look at how Oden is doing against other young big men in the league

2 comparisons:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=noahjo01&y1=2010&p2=hibbero01&y2=2010&p3=lopezbr01&y3=2010&p4=odengr01&y4=2010

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=odengr01&y1=2010&p2=gasolma01&y2=2010&p3=thompja02&y3=2010

These are all 2nd or 3rd year players...Roy Hibbert, Brooke Lopez, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, Jason Thompson

And the glaring thing is the difference between per-game production and per36 minute production...something we'd know without looking at the numbers I suppose. But it is striking that Oden is at the top of the list in per36 production and advanced metrics showing on-floor rates; but is at the very bottom of the list when it comes to per game production.

fouls

That difference is obviously hurting Portland as they are simply a better team with Greg on the floor.

And I hope I'm just reading things wrong, but it kind of looks like the whistles are getting to Oden a bit. He's starting to look a little sullen like he did for most of last season. That wouldn't be a good sign.

[mojomarc]

I agree--that first foul against Detroit did seem to get Greg down a little bit. He seems to get called for one stupid one, gets a bit depressed and then goes out and gets 2-3 more. I just posted to his facebook page that he should go out there and start challenging the refs on thsoe calls more, at least let them know that he intends to keep them honest during the game.

That said, the guy is a defensive monster. He's leading the league in drtg, rebound rate and block percentage, which means if he can get enough minutes in he should be a leading DPOY candidate. But that we knew. On the offensive end it is still startling how few attempts he gets compared to his peers both on a raw and Per36 basis. If i were Nate (or if Nate had any semblance of coaching ability at all, instead of absolutely none ), I'd get Monty working with Roy and Oden at developing a two man game. Oden is a good enough passer that he can draw the double teams off Roy, and vice versa. That would greatly improve Oden's assist rate, and it would also improve the number of open looks that Roy would get. Plus, given how Oden seems to see the court well enough for a low post big, it would likely open up back door cuts for Rudy, Miller, Webster, and Aldridge. Of course, that would require some motion in our offense as well, but we know that won't happen.... :p

[benefit1970]

Why does the first link say 2.4 blocks per game, and the second say 1.4?

Weird...

-brandon

[Wizenheimer]

Why does the first link say 2.4 blocks per game, and the second say 1.4?

Weird...

-brandon

that was apparently my fault...I guess I failed to specify a single season..this one

corrected it now...thanks

[ebott]

I'm getting depressed about Oden all over again. Man, Kevin Durant sure would look good on this team.

[soobias]

i like those comparisons. the only thing that stands out to me, is that the other guys are being used more and they play for non-contending teams.

if we could utilize him more and stop with the baby steps, he would be much better than everyone on that list plus every other frickin center in the league.

[Wizenheimer]

yeah, Oden does statistically rate as a defensive monster (and yes...it's early):

Season Lg Player DRtg Tm
2009-10 NBA Greg Oden 91.75 POR
2008-09 NBA Dwight Howard 94.56 ORL
2007-08 NBA Kevin Garnett 93.85 BOS
2006-07 NBA Tim Duncan 94.44 SAS
2005-06 NBA Tim Duncan 94.41 SAS
2004-05 NBA Tim Duncan 93.17 SAS
2003-04 NBA Ben Wallace 87.48 DET

currently he is posting the best defensive rating since Big Ben in 03/04 (which was the best all time by the way.

and for the enjoyment of Blazer fans, the current top-5 in the NBA:

Defensive Rating

1. Greg Oden-POR 91.8
2. Joel Przybilla-POR 92.8
3. Kevin Garnett-BOS 94.7
4. Rudy Fernandez-POR 95.4
5. Erick Dampier-DAL 95.8

there's also defensive win shares:

Defensive Win Shares

1. Gerald Wallace-CHA 1.0
2. Dirk Nowitzki-DAL 1.0
3. Rajon Rondo-BOS 0.9
4. Greg Oden-POR 0.9
5. Kevin Garnett-BOS 0.9

and defensive rebounding as well as total rebounding:

Defensive Rebound Pct

1. Dwight Howard-ORL 29.3
2. Carlos Boozer-UTA 29.2
3. Luis Scola-HOU 28.9
4. Marcus Camby-LAC 27.5
5. Greg Oden-POR 27.3

Total Rebound Pct

1. Greg Oden-POR 20.9
2. Dwight Howard-ORL 20.7
3. Joakim Noah-CHI 20.6
4. Chris Bosh-TOR 19.7
5. Emeka Okafor-NOH 19.0

and block percentage:

Block Pct

1. Greg Oden-POR 7.6
2. Joel Anthony-MIA 6.5
3. Roy Hibbert-IND 6.4
4. Erick Dampier-DAL 6.3
5. Samuel Dalembert-PHI 5.9

and from out of the blue:

Turnover Pct

1. LaMarcus Aldridge-POR 5.6
2. Peja Stojakovic-NOH 5.6
3. Dirk Nowitzki-DAL 5.7
4. Jason Richardson-PHO 7.0
5. J.J. Redick-ORL 7.1

anyway, not only does Oden rank in the top-5 in several categories, according to 82games he is holding his opponents to an exceptionally low PER of 8.1. They have only registered an eFG of 35.2% which is a horrible number for centers

One big negative difference between Oden this year and last: last season, Oden had a DrawFoul% of 22.7%; this season it's only 10.9%. That results in last season shooting 8.3 FTper48 compared this season's 4.0 FTper48. That seems to be a really significant difference between the 2 seasons.

I don't think it's due so much to opportunity...last season he had a usage rate of 19.3% compared to this season's 18.9%. And both seasons, he's been assisted on 50% of his baskets. Something is different. Perhaps it's because his offensive rebounds are down so his putback attempts are down as well.

Whatever it is, the Blazers need to find a way to get Oden into situations more where he stresses the opposing defense.

[mojomarc]

On your last point on draw fouls, I think there really is a ref bias towards Oden this year. Watching the Detroit game, what Oden got away with (that first foul still bugs the crap out of me since it was an incidental hip-chuck on a screen while he didn't appear to really be moving that barely slowed down the defender), while Ben Wallace was literally riding Greg's back a number of times with no calls on him. It is almost like there is a "Greg is foul prone, so whenever there's contact it must be Greg's fault" thing going on. The number of times where he should be seeing and-1s that he isn't is literally staggering.

[KrossOver21]

Speaking of Oden being terribly under utilized; here are a few stats that just JUMP out at you...

Oden is 4th in the NBA in FG%, shooting at a 60% clip. However, he is only getting 6.8 shots per game, ranking him 124th. When factoring in his limited amount of touches, one can see why he is only getting 1.8 free throws per game, which ranks 179th, while he is downing them at a respectable 75%. Also, his Points Per Shot is a solid 1.39, ranking him 21st. GET HIM THE BALL!!

Make of these numbers what you want, but I feel that he is not getting enough touches. You give him 10 shots a game, he will hit five or six buckets... and be at the line considerably more, bringing his numbers up to those of his "peers".

[Sinobas]

Thanks for posting this. I'm tired of hearing Greg Oden bashing, or how he's not as good as his peers. BS. Oden is better than any of those guys, he's the man! He's surrounded with pathetic defenders, yet the Blazers are leading the league in defense.

Now he has a post up game, but our Bozo guards don't get him the ball.

[Brandon-Clyde]

First Wiz thanks for the stats. I could never get that all put together myself. It really helps to see those numbers


Like Mojo,and as I've said in other threads, I believe Oden needs to be more vocal with the refs. I think Oden needs to start complaining to and glaring at the refs. I believe at some point soon that he needs to go ballistic,apesh**,throw a tantrum that would humble anything Rasheed did.
Oden should start out immediately challenging bad calls(or non-calls that should go his way). Oden should get as close to the refs as he is allowed and absolutley LOOM over them when challenging these calls. Be intimidating to the refs as well as opposing players.
Management(including Nate,KP and the entirety of the front office) needs to be ready to support Oden on the drop of a dime. Vocal support,video support,official complaints to the league,talking to sports radio stations across the country about the situation etc.
Yes some of Odens fouls are stupid but every player commits stupid fouls. The stupid fouls committed by Oden would be a lot less painful however if not for all the stupid foul calls made by the refs where Oden is innocent of wrongdoing

[KrossOver21]

Thanks for posting this. I'm tired of hearing Greg Oden bashing, or how he's not as good as his peers. BS. Oden is better than any of those guys, he's the man! He's surrounded with pathetic defenders, yet the Blazers are leading the league in defense.

Now he has a post up game, but our Bozo guards don't get him the ball.

I am not sure I would go so far as to call our guards Bozos, but I did count three times last night when Oden completely had his man sealed in the post and they looked at him, reversed the ball and settled for an outside jump shot that missed badly. It is extremely frustrating, I do agree with that!

[SalemStoner]

My favorite Oden stat is how 5 guys on our team are averaging more FGA than him... I can understand Roy and LMA, but there's really no reason Blake or Miller should be getting more FGA than him, let alone BOTH of our PGs getting more shots than him. I won't even point out how much more efficient Oden is offensively than Outlaw and is just as capable of creating his own shot in the post as Outlaw is on the perimeter... only Oden actually can pass the ball out of a double team instead of forcing up a wild shot like Outlaw does all the time... I also don't get how without Outlaw in the lineup how Greg's shots havent increased given the extra shots suddenly available...

[LicketyBrindle]

Oden will never come close to realizing his full potential as long as Nate is the coach. The "system" that Nate runs is one of the worst in the entire league. He runs no cross screens or down screens for Greg. He constantly has him setting screens out on the perimeter for the guards who then never look to give him the ball on the roll to the hoop. He gives Greg a couple of basic post up opportunities at the beginning of the 1st and 3rd qtrs and then he never goes to him for the rest of the game. For Greg to only be getting 6-7 shots per game is a travesty! No other coach in the entire league would ever under-utilize a 7 foot monster like that! I can see it in Greg's demeanor as well--he is frustrated playing for Nate. Nate is not a player's coach and he never will be. I would not be suprised to see Greg asking to leave as soon as he can.

[SalemStoner]

Oden will never come close to realizing his full potential as long as Nate is the coach. The "system" that Nate runs is one of the worst in the entire league. He runs no cross screens or down screens for Greg. He constantly has him setting screens out on the perimeter for the guards who then never look to give him the ball on the roll to the hoop. He gives Greg a couple of basic post up opportunities at the beginning of the 1st and 3rd qtrs and then he never goes to him for the rest of the game. For Greg to only be getting 6-7 shots per game is a travesty! No other coach in the entire league would ever under-utilize a 7 foot monster like that! I can see it in Greg's demeanor as well--he is frustrated playing for Nate. Nate is not a player's coach and he never will be. I would not be suprised to see Greg asking to leave as soon as he can.

I couldn't agree more. He's getting about half the shots he should be getting and he's getting virtually no help from our guards at getting the ball in situations where he can score easily to the point where it's obvious to anyone who's watched more than a couple of our games to go "does Brandon even realize Greg is on the floor offensively?"