Kyle Filipowski

[Duke4life831]

Still dont see an NBA starter with him. Ya his 3pt shot is improved this year (mainly from this last 3 game stretch), but his FT% has dropped to sub 70%. Even though he's no longer playing alongside Lively this year, his rebounding has dropped a little as well. His passing has improved a good amount.

But my main thing is, Im just not sure what he does well is going to translate well against NBA athletes. He is just too stiff in his movements in my opinion.

Finally saw a Duke game expecting to see improved mobility but I just didn't notice a huge difference from last season. The 1st question for Filipkowski is can he hold his own defensively, and I don't know at this point.

His mobility, flexibility and explosiveness is definitely better this season. You can see it on film and you can see it in the stats with the huge jump in blocks %.

I'm obviously not saying he's as good as all these guys or making a direct 1 to 1 comparison but he's got some shades of all these guys..

Lauri Markannen
Kevin Love
Kelly Olynyk
Nikola Vucevic
Wendell Carter, Jr
Alperen Sengun
Domantas Sabonis
Danilo Gallinari
Nikola Jokic

Guys with this level of production + size + skill (handle, shot creation, finishing, passing, footwork, vision, feel, shooting) at 7'0" with multiple seasons as the go-to scorer on one of the best teams in college basketball..he's a top 10 pick at a minimum - especially in a weaker draft class.

I mean a big reason why the block % is up, is the fact he is in the paint far more this year than last year. Flip played almost all his minutes at the 4 last year. He now camps in the paint as the 5 for the majority of this year. It also helps that Lively isnt there taking up all the blocks. Ryan Young's block % has doubled this year as well.

Im still not really seeing any fluidity/agility difference from him this year compared to last year.

And I guess he has shades of those dudes, all except WCJ are tall white guys, so there is that. Again I like Flip as a player, especially a college player. But if youre going to take him top 10/lotto youre taking him with the thought process of him being your offensive hub. I personally dont think he will be efficient enough of an offensive player against NBA athletes to be your offensive hub. I do think he can carve out a role as a solid stretch energy big off the bench though.

[Hal14]

Dont get me wrong, the dude is a stud college player. I just dont think his game translates to the NBA. I can see a Moe Wagner comp for Flip, to me that's his closest, even then I think Wagner is more agile. Flip does look like the better passer than Moe, but is it enough of an outlier for Flip to be a legit starting 5 in the league? I dont think so.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

Let's compare their sophomore season numbers:
Flip: 18 PPG, 17.5% rebounding, 6.8% blocks, 20.1% assist, 12.3 BPM
Moe: 12 PPG, 11% rebounding, 1.6% blocks, 4.7% assist, 7.2 BPM

Like, it's not even close. Moe is 6'10" and can barely dribble. Flip is 7'0" and can handle the ball like a guard.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

You're really oversimplifying the center position. First off, which of those buckets does a guy like Wendell Carter Jr, Nikola Vucevic, Lauri Markannen or Gallinari fall into? What about Ayton? What about Towns? What did Sabonis do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do? What did Vucevic do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do? Which bucket does Kevon Looney fit into? What about Al Horford? Ivica Zubac? Which bucket does Nurkic fall into? What about Bam? He's an awesome defender but not much of a rim protector.

This offensive hub stuff isn't even real. What bigs are actually used as an offensive hub? How many teams run their entire offense through a big? Jokic (who didn't put up the numbers that Flip does when he was age 20) and *maybe* sabonis and Sengun. That's it.

Flip doesn't *have* to be an "offensive hub". He can just be an offensive weapon. A guy who is 7'0", can take his man off the bounce, hit some pick n pop 3's, stretch the floor, post up, and drop dimes a few times a game. Bigs with that type of size and skill are valuable in today's NBA. Look at guys like Jokic, Sengun, Vucevic, Markannen, Love, Sabonis, Porzingis, Olynyk, Gallinari, Towns, etc. Flip has the size, skill, versatility on offense. On D he has shown improved ability to defend in space this season as wqell as improved ability to protect the rim..as well as being a very good rebounder.

Let's not overthink this.

If Flip is a slightly worse version of Prime Kevin Love, is that not worthy of a top 5 pick in a draft as weak as this one?

Also, with a 6.8% blocks rate and being 7'0", I don't see why Flip can't at least be a decent rim protector at the next level.

And being a 7-footer who as a sophomore is averaging 18 PPG...and you'd be hard pressed to find many 7-footers in the past 20 years who (as freshman or sophomores age 20 and under) had the combination Flip has of volume of self created field goals + 3 FG% of 39% or higher + assist rate of 20% or higher. Based on that, I don't see why he can't be an offensive hub.

Not every offensive hub is Nikola Jokic. And guys like Jokic and Sabonis weren't exactly putting numbers that were much better than Flip at age 20.

[Duke4life831]

Dont get me wrong, the dude is a stud college player. I just dont think his game translates to the NBA. I can see a Moe Wagner comp for Flip, to me that's his closest, even then I think Wagner is more agile. Flip does look like the better passer than Moe, but is it enough of an outlier for Flip to be a legit starting 5 in the league? I dont think so.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

Let's compare their sophomore season numbers:
Flip: 18 PPG, 17.5% rebounding, 6.8% blocks, 20.1% assist, 12.3 BPM
Moe: 12 PPG, 11% rebounding, 1.6% blocks, 4.7% assist, 7.2 BPM

Like, it's not even close. Moe is 6'10" and can barely dribble. Flip is 7'0" and can handle the ball like a guard.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

You're really oversimplifying the center position. First off, which of those buckets does a guy like Wendell Carter Jr, Nikola Vucevic, Lauri Markannen or Gallinari fall into? What about Ayton? What about Towns? What did Sabonis do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do? What did Vucevic do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do?

If Flip is a slightly worse version of Prime Kevin Love, is that not worthy of a top 5 pick in a draft as weak as this one?

Also, with a 6.8% blocks rate and being 7'0", I don't see why Flip can't at least be a decent rim protector at the next level.

And being a 7-footer who as a sophomore is averaging 18 PPG...and you'd be hard pressed to find many 7-footers in the past 20 years who (as freshman or sophomores age 20 and under) had the combination Flip has of volume of self created field goals + 3 FG% of 39% or higher + assist rate of 20% or higher. Based on that, I don't see why he can't be an offensive hub.

Not every offensive hub is Nikola Jokic. And guys like Jokic and Sabonis weren't exactly putting numbers that were much better than Flip at age 20.

WCJ is a defensive 5. Lauri and Gallo are/were 3s and 4s. Both have/had far better agility than Flip. No one is going to think about trying Flip at the 3 in the NBA.

I can buy the Vuc comp. But with that said I dont think teams are lining up to get a Vuc kind of starting 5 nowadays.

Ayton I dont see any comp there, Ayton is a freak athlete that was taken high because of his potential 2 way ability. And ever since he got that 2nd contract and never took the next step defensively, he is also another big I dont think teams are fighting over to get.

KAT is a freak offensive talent and arguably the best shooting big of all time. So ya if you think Flip can be a guy that can be a guy that is close to a 50/40/90 player, ya take him high.

Again I think Flip is a stiff athlete. In college he can get away with it most nights because most college teams dont have the combo of high level 7 footers who are also high level athletes. And because of that, I dont think a lot of the things he tries to do on the basketball court is going to translate well to the NBA level.

I dont care about certain stat thresholds because again Im not talking about him as a college player (I think he is a stud). Its pretty simple, you think his game will translate and I dont. Agree to disagree.

[Hal14]

Dont get me wrong, the dude is a stud college player. I just dont think his game translates to the NBA. I can see a Moe Wagner comp for Flip, to me that's his closest, even then I think Wagner is more agile. Flip does look like the better passer than Moe, but is it enough of an outlier for Flip to be a legit starting 5 in the league? I dont think so.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

Let's compare their sophomore season numbers:
Flip: 18 PPG, 17.5% rebounding, 6.8% blocks, 20.1% assist, 12.3 BPM
Moe: 12 PPG, 11% rebounding, 1.6% blocks, 4.7% assist, 7.2 BPM

Like, it's not even close. Moe is 6'10" and can barely dribble. Flip is 7'0" and can handle the ball like a guard.

I just dont see the role. In the NBA you basically have 2 kind of 5s, you have your offensive hubs or you have rim running defenders. I dont think Flip's skill level is an outlier enough to be a legit offensive hub in the NBA. He also doesnt have the wiggle and agility to play the 4 either. So he's going to most likely be a strict 5 in the NBA. So Im just seeing energy big off the bench.

You're really oversimplifying the center position. First off, which of those buckets does a guy like Wendell Carter Jr, Nikola Vucevic, Lauri Markannen or Gallinari fall into? What about Ayton? What about Towns? What did Sabonis do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do? What did Vucevic do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do?

If Flip is a slightly worse version of Prime Kevin Love, is that not worthy of a top 5 pick in a draft as weak as this one?

Also, with a 6.8% blocks rate and being 7'0", I don't see why Flip can't at least be a decent rim protector at the next level.

And being a 7-footer who as a sophomore is averaging 18 PPG...and you'd be hard pressed to find many 7-footers in the past 20 years who (as freshman or sophomores age 20 and under) had the combination Flip has of volume of self created field goals + 3 FG% of 39% or higher + assist rate of 20% or higher. Based on that, I don't see why he can't be an offensive hub.

Not every offensive hub is Nikola Jokic. And guys like Jokic and Sabonis weren't exactly putting numbers that were much better than Flip at age 20.

WCJ is a defensive 5.

A defensive 5? is he even that good defensively?

You said the 2 buckets that all bigs have to fall into are offensive hub or "rim running defender". WCJ isn't that much of a rim runner. So I'm not sure how he would fall into the rim runner defender bucket..he would have to be one *hell* of a defender, like all-NBA defense caliber - but he's not..

Also, I was NOT making a direct 1 to 1 comp from Flip to all of those guys, so there's no need to say "Ayton, I don't see the comp".

My point is, that not all bigs fall into 1 of the buckets you said they do.

Ayton isn't an offensive hub or a defensive rim runner - end of story.

[Duke4life831]

Let's compare their sophomore season numbers:
Flip: 18 PPG, 17.5% rebounding, 6.8% blocks, 20.1% assist, 12.3 BPM
Moe: 12 PPG, 11% rebounding, 1.6% blocks, 4.7% assist, 7.2 BPM

Like, it's not even close. Moe is 6'10" and can barely dribble. Flip is 7'0" and can handle the ball like a guard.


You're really oversimplifying the center position. First off, which of those buckets does a guy like Wendell Carter Jr, Nikola Vucevic, Lauri Markannen or Gallinari fall into? What about Ayton? What about Towns? What did Sabonis do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do? What did Vucevic do at age 20 that Flip doesn't do?

If Flip is a slightly worse version of Prime Kevin Love, is that not worthy of a top 5 pick in a draft as weak as this one?

Also, with a 6.8% blocks rate and being 7'0", I don't see why Flip can't at least be a decent rim protector at the next level.

And being a 7-footer who as a sophomore is averaging 18 PPG...and you'd be hard pressed to find many 7-footers in the past 20 years who (as freshman or sophomores age 20 and under) had the combination Flip has of volume of self created field goals + 3 FG% of 39% or higher + assist rate of 20% or higher. Based on that, I don't see why he can't be an offensive hub.

Not every offensive hub is Nikola Jokic. And guys like Jokic and Sabonis weren't exactly putting numbers that were much better than Flip at age 20.

WCJ is a defensive 5.

A defensive 5? is he even that good defensively?

You said the 2 buckets that all bigs have to fall into are offensive hub or "rim running defender". WCJ isn't that much of a rim runner. So I'm not sure how he would fall into the rim runner defender bucket..he would have to be one *hell* of a defender, like all-NBA defense caliber - but he's not..

Also, I was NOT making a direct 1 to 1 comp from Flip to all of those guys, so there's no need to say "Ayton, I don't see the comp".

My point is, that not all bigs fall into 1 of the buckets you said they do.

Ayton isn't an offensive hub or a defensive rim runner - end of story.

WCJ is a good defender but not a great one. Which is one of the reasons why he hasnt been an everyday starter for the Magic this year. Him and Goga have been going back and forth on who is the starter, and Goga does fall into that high level rim protector and just a lob threat on offense role.

Ayton got drafted #1 because of his legit 2 way potential because when he showed up in college, he was a top tier defender. He got his big 2nd deal when he was showing legit high level defense in the playoffs (and even then they were hesitant to give him a big deal). Guess what, Ayton is no longer a player teams are lining up to get.

Guys like Ayton and WCJ are kind of the point Im making. WCJ is far more skilled than Goga, but even with the skill advantage he is in a battle for the starting spot with Goga, who is the basic rim protector and lob threat. Ayton is skilled and he can pretty damn good defense when he wants to. No one wants to lineup for what Ayton is now. PHX was trying to get rid of him for years and POR is fine with him as their starter right now because they're tanking.

Most teams with the 5 spot are either looking for offensive hubs or freakish high level talents (AD and KAT), if they cant get that, they tend to rather just keep that position low volume and find a D first rim protector.

[Hal14]

WCJ is a defensive 5.

A defensive 5? is he even that good defensively?

You said the 2 buckets that all bigs have to fall into are offensive hub or "rim running defender". WCJ isn't that much of a rim runner. So I'm not sure how he would fall into the rim runner defender bucket..he would have to be one *hell* of a defender, like all-NBA defense caliber - but he's not..

Also, I was NOT making a direct 1 to 1 comp from Flip to all of those guys, so there's no need to say "Ayton, I don't see the comp".

My point is, that not all bigs fall into 1 of the buckets you said they do.

Ayton isn't an offensive hub or a defensive rim runner - end of story.

Most teams with the 5 spot are either looking for offensive hubs or freakish high level talents (AD and KAT), if they cant get that, they tend to rather just keep that position low volume and find a D first rim protector.

Again, these are all just generalizations.

I think you're relying too much on labels, archetypes and positions.

We're moving more and more into an era of positionless basketball.

At the end of the day, teams just want to win games. If I'm an NBA GM, and I see a guy who is 7-foot, putting up 18 PPG..has been the go-to scorer for one of the best teams in college basketball as a freshman and as a sophomore. Can put the ball on the floor, attack off the bounce from the top of the key, from the wings, from the elbows, can lead the break, can post up, shoot the 3..hit cutters, make skip passes, high-low passes, catch lobs, has a 17% rebound rate and a 7% blocks rate and has the *potential* to play either the 4 or the 5 (having that versatility to play either spot is very appealing for teams since they can run different types of lineups) and he's still only 20 yrs old so has room for upside and to develop more skill, can still get stronger and quicker once we get him into our strength and conditioning program, has a high IQ, good teammate, good work ethic, is coachable, etc. Yeah I'll take that player in the top 10 - especially in a weaker draft class.

[Colbinii]

Most teams with the 5 spot are either looking for offensive hubs or freakish high level talents (AD and KAT), if they cant get that, they tend to rather just keep that position low volume and find a D first rim protector.

I disagree with this.

I think teams are looking for talent at the Center position. When the talent isn't producing impact [See WCJ and Ayton], then the teams will play the next best option to win games [In Orlando's case this is Goga].

I just don't think teams are dumb enough to put players into simple tiers. Fans do simple tiers, because it is easy to sort and organize players when you don't have all the data available and don't spend 8+ hours a day analyzing players around the league and spending hours watching film every day.

Filipowski has shown a ton of talent and a lot of transferable skills:
-Elite Passing
-High Defensive Feel
-Quick Processing times
-Elite positioning defensively
-Ability to use size and play big on both ends

I don't know if the shooting will translate 1:1, but remember most shooting bigs are shooting relatively open shots [See Brook Lopez] and shooting set shots, which makes it more likely to translate compared to an on-ball creator with magnitudes more of difficulty on shot(s).

Filipowski may flop at the pro level, but the reason he flops isn't because he doesn't fit into two archetypes, it is because his skill-set didn't translate well enough to make a positive impact and he gets exposed defensively.

[Duke4life831]

Most teams with the 5 spot are either looking for offensive hubs or freakish high level talents (AD and KAT), if they cant get that, they tend to rather just keep that position low volume and find a D first rim protector.

I disagree with this.

I think teams are looking for talent at the Center position. When the talent isn't producing impact [See WCJ and Ayton], then the teams will play the next best option to win games [In Orlando's case this is Goga].

I just don't think teams are dumb enough to put players into simple tiers. Fans do simple tiers, because it is easy to sort and organize players when you don't have all the data available and don't spend 8+ hours a day analyzing players around the league and spending hours watching film every day.

Filipowski has shown a ton of talent and a lot of transferable skills:
-Elite Passing
-High Defensive Feel
-Quick Processing times
-Elite positioning defensively
-Ability to use size and play big on both ends

I don't know if the shooting will translate 1:1, but remember most shooting bigs are shooting relatively open shots [See Brook Lopez] and shooting set shots, which makes it more likely to translate compared to an on-ball creator with magnitudes more of difficulty on shot(s).

Filipowski may flop at the pro level, but the reason he flops isn't because he doesn't fit into two archetypes, it is because his skill-set didn't translate well enough to make a positive impact and he gets exposed defensively.

The last point is pretty much the point Im making though. I dont have high faith that his skill set and his defense translates to the next level. And the point Im making is this, if Flip isnt an outlier on the offensive end, is he good enough to be a starter? Or would a team just be better off using a 2nd round pick on a guy like Bona? And I dont think Flip is going to be an outlier on the offensive end in the NBA.

And when I look around the NBA, the 5 spot is dominated by basically two types of archetypes (defensive 1st or outlier talents on the offensive end). There are a couple exceptions to the rule (Vuc, Jonas, Nurk, Jakob). But I think all of those are easily replaceable bigs in today's NBA. If youre taking Flip in the top 10, youre betting on him being an outlier offensive talent. Again I dont think his game will translate.

[Hal14]

I can buy the Vuc comp. But with that said I dont think teams are lining up to get a Vuc kind of starting 5 nowadays.

Vucevic was an all-star. He's in his 12th year as a starting center.

Top 10 center in the league for basically his entire prime. A handful of seasons averaging 18+ PPG. Multiple seasons averaging 20+ PPG.

You get a guy like that in in the 4-6 range of a draft class that's this bad, you're doing backflips and popping champagne if you're that GM.

Read on Twitter

These are stats for each guy during their pre-draft season, except Jokic I used his draft and stash season (when he was about same age as Flip is now) for a more apples to apples comparison:

[FarBeyondDriven]

Most teams with the 5 spot are either looking for offensive hubs or freakish high level talents (AD and KAT), if they cant get that, they tend to rather just keep that position low volume and find a D first rim protector.

I disagree with this.

I think teams are looking for talent at the Center position. When the talent isn't producing impact [See WCJ and Ayton], then the teams will play the next best option to win games [In Orlando's case this is Goga].

I just don't think teams are dumb enough to put players into simple tiers. Fans do simple tiers, because it is easy to sort and organize players when you don't have all the data available and don't spend 8+ hours a day analyzing players around the league and spending hours watching film every day.

Filipowski has shown a ton of talent and a lot of transferable skills:
-Elite Passing
-High Defensive Feel
-Quick Processing times
-Elite positioning defensively
-Ability to use size and play big on both ends

I don't know if the shooting will translate 1:1, but remember most shooting bigs are shooting relatively open shots [See Brook Lopez] and shooting set shots, which makes it more likely to translate compared to an on-ball creator with magnitudes more of difficulty on shot(s).

Filipowski may flop at the pro level, but the reason he flops isn't because he doesn't fit into two archetypes, it is because his skill-set didn't translate well enough to make a positive impact and he gets exposed defensively.

The last point is pretty much the point Im making though. I dont have high faith that his skill set and his defense translates to the next level. And the point Im making is this, if Flip isnt an outlier on the offensive end, is he good enough to be a starter? Or would a team just be better off using a 2nd round pick on a guy like Bona? And I dont think Flip is going to be an outlier on the offensive end in the NBA.

And when I look around the NBA, the 5 spot is dominated by basically two types of archetypes (defensive 1st or outlier talents on the offensive end). There are a couple exceptions to the rule (Vuc, Jonas, Nurk, Jakob). But I think all of those are easily replaceable bigs in today's NBA. If youre taking Flip in the top 10, youre betting on him being an outlier offensive talent. Again I dont think his game will translate.

I think offensively he IS an outlier though. There's only about a 1/2 dozen centers in the NBA that can do all the things Flip can do on offense. And I know defense is a major concern but Sengun and Sabonis, two guys Flip has a similar offensive game to, seem to make it work. Everyone is super excited about Sengun and Flip seems capable of doing everything he does except maybe with better three point shooting potential. I feel like people would say if Sengun was in this draft he'd go #1!! But here Flip is, very similar but a better shooter and he's not considered near the top of the class and this class is considered weak. It would not surprise me if Flip was as good as Chet as a rookie and they might not even be that far off as prospects. Would it be outlandish for Flip to average 17-7-3 with 2.5 blocks per game like Chet? I am NOT saying he's a better prospect than Chet. I'm just saying maybe we're underrating him.

Chet in college

14-10-2 with 4 blocks 39% from three

Filipowski in college

18-9-3 with 2 blocks 40% from three

[FarBeyondDriven]

I can buy the Vuc comp. But with that said I dont think teams are lining up to get a Vuc kind of starting 5 nowadays.

Vucevic was an all-star. He's in his 12th year as a starting center.

Top 10 center in the league for basically his entire prime. A handful of seasons averaging 18+ PPG. Multiple seasons averaging 20+ PPG.

You get a guy like that in in the 4-6 range of a draft class that's this bad, you're doing backflips and popping champagne if you're that GM.

Read on Twitter

These are stats for each guy during their pre-draft season, except Jokic I used his draft and stash season (when he was about same age as Flip is now) for a more apples to apples comparison:

if the class is as bad as all of you are saying Flip should go #1

[Hal14]

I can buy the Vuc comp. But with that said I dont think teams are lining up to get a Vuc kind of starting 5 nowadays.

Vucevic was an all-star. He's in his 12th year as a starting center.

Top 10 center in the league for basically his entire prime. A handful of seasons averaging 18+ PPG. Multiple seasons averaging 20+ PPG.

You get a guy like that in in the 4-6 range of a draft class that's this bad, you're doing backflips and popping champagne if you're that GM.

Read on Twitter

These are stats for each guy during their pre-draft season, except Jokic I used his draft and stash season (when he was about same age as Flip is now) for a more apples to apples comparison:

if the class is as bad as all of you are saying Flip should go #1

He's no. 4 for me right now. Could end up higher..could end up lower..we'll see..

[FarBeyondDriven]

not a great game today and Duke got a friendly home-town whistle and deserved to lose. Filipowski really struggled with Hall's size but in his defense he tweaked his gimpy ankle early on and was favoring it the rest of the game.

[165bows]

Okc-bound seems a decent bet.

[JMAC3]

If his median outcome is Kelly Olynyk how high are you taking him?

[Colbinii]

If his median outcome is Kelly Olynyk how high are you taking him?

A low-end starter who is extremely portable and synergistic with any type of player? What are high 1st and 3rd quartiles?

If his median outcome is Olynyk and his high-end is Sabonis, then he should go Top 5. If his median is Olynyk and his high-end is Vucevic, then Top 10.

But we don't know Olynyk is his median. We don't know his high end.

As Clyde said, maybe we should focus on his actual attributes instead of just comparing a white basketball player to other white basketball players.

[JMAC3]

90% of centers are going to fit into a specific archetype, typically the ones who break the mold are #1 pick types so Flip could be one of those guys but it is likely he is what you think he is and not a Jokic outlier.

[Hal14]

90% of centers are going to fit into a specific archetype, typically the ones who break the mold are #1 pick types so Flip could be one of those guys but it is likely he is what you think he is and not a Jokic outlier.

But all players are different.

Sabonis, Sengun, Jokic, Olynyk, Vucevic, Kevin Love, Kaminsky, Moe Wagner, Markannen might all be the same archetype. Big man who isn't an elite defender, not very athletic, not elite rim protector or lob threat but good ball skills.

Simply saying "he's Olynyk so not worth drafting in the top 10" is really poor, lazy analysis.

Sure, he's obviously unlikely to be a 2x MVP like Jokic. But he's also likely to be better than Moe Wagner or Frank Kaminsky (both of those guys put up like 2 PPG as freshmen. Flip was putting up equal or better stats as a freshman to what they did as juniors/seniors).

For a better evaluation, let's look at the stats, look at the film and do our best to project if he's more likely to be as good as Olynyk, Sabonis, Sengun, Markannen, Love or Vucevic..

All are different players with different ability levels - some are more (or less) like Filipowski..

Or we could just put aside the player comps (since players are so different, so unique, no 2 are the same..each player goes to a different NBA team that has a different development plan for them, etc.) and analyze how they could project at the enxt level, based on the film and stats we have..

[JMAC3]

90% of centers are going to fit into a specific archetype, typically the ones who break the mold are #1 pick types so Flip could be one of those guys but it is likely he is what you think he is and not a Jokic outlier.

But all players are different.

Sabonis, Sengun, Jokic, Olynyk, Vucevic and Kevin Love might all be the same archetype. Big man who isn't an elite defender, not very athletic, not elite rim protector or lob threat but skilled and versatile offensively.

Simply saying "he's Olynyk so not worth drafting in the top 10" is really poor analysis.

Sure, he's obviously unlikely to be a 2x MVP like Jokic. But draft evaluation 101 is simply trying to look at the stats, look at the film and do our best to project if he's more likely to be as good as Olynyk, Sabonis, Sengun, Markannen, Love or Vucevic?

All are different players with different ability levels - some are more (or less) like Filipowski..

Yeah and Olynyk is not a bad player? Flip could be worse. Especially as a guy most have in 15 range. Olynyk went 13th.

Typically most scouting mistakes happen by trying to label every single guy as a guy that went top 10. but for some reason we live in a world that if you don't think a guy is going to be an allstar level player it is an invalid opinion.

[JMAC3]

The Center position in itself is usually not a good pick to invest a top 10 pick in general unless the guy is truly a freak like a KAT, Davis, etc because as a I said. 90% of them are going to fall into an archetype that doesn't return that level of investment. Most of them are going to be average starters when they do work out.