HadAnEffectHere wrote:Low post offense is awful because it takes way too long to set-up.
He needs to learn how to dribble and shoot so he can dribble into his post-ups... He could be a 30+ PPG scorer if he reaches Embiid level as a ball handler and shooter.
The odds of this happening are 1% at best.
Without high volume, he's just not very valuable.
Low-post offense is necessary for big men to take advantage of mismatches from switches, cross matches in transition, and small ball lineups. And having a competent post-up threat can be an option you can go to in a broken play situation. When post-up ability is combined with size, physicality, rebounding, and a strong PnR roll game, it makes for a very dynamic paint presence. And this is exactly what Zach Edey offers.
I don't believe offense will be his issue at all. I'm confident he'll be a 10-15 ppg, 10-12 rpg on 60%+ FG and 65%+ TS guy if he gets anywhere from 15-25 minutes per game. Boban averages 9.5 ppg to 15.9 ppg per 15 minutes and 25 minutes over his career with a peak of 11.5 ppg to 19.6 ppg in 2022. Zach is comparable as an extremely active per-minute scorer. He actually has the stamina to play more minutes though. And potentially the defense to be out there for extended minutes in the first place.
Defense is going to be what determines his career and role in the NBA.
But you're right about the offensive ceiling. He'll need to develop his shot and sharpen up his back-to-the-basket dribbling if he is to become a high-volume scorer. But those aren't pressing concerns. Do I believe he could be a star in the league? Yes, but I'm not sure he'll ever be given an opportunity to do so. Not many teams looking to build an offense around a low-post threat these days.
I think he'll be a high-level backup with a good chance to be a valuable starter in the right environment. That's as much as I'm willing to bet right now.