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eminence wrote:Castle will be one of the guys the combine is most important for (imo). Big difference if he measures as a big guard or as a smaller wing.

Who else do folks feel the combine will be important for?

Justin Edwards easily as his people have started to put forward the argument that he was so bad at Kentucky just because he bulked up beyond the limits of his frame and that he's losing that weight now. He needs to look way more athletic than he did at Kentucky at the combine.

For guys in lottery contention, I would like to see JaKobe Walter weigh more (180 pounds is death in the postseason) and Ron Holland's measurements are critical. Holland looked tiny out there all season and way shorter than he was listed at.

Ya I think Holland could be closer to 6'5. Matas looked way bigger than him out there.

6'5 with that skillset just isnt going to be a wining combo for Holland. Shades of RHJ.

If you were to compare the top 10 from this draft to the top 10 in 2013 (another projected weak draft), is this better or worse?
Top 10 in 2013
Bennett (huge bust)
Oladipo (2x all star)
Otto Porter (low level starter)
Cody Zeller (bench player)
Alex Len (bust/bench player)
Nerlens Noel (bench player)
Mclemore (bust)
KCP (decent starter)
Trey Burke (bust)
CJ McCollum (good starter, fringe allstar)

Jadoogar wrote:If you were to compare the top 10 from this draft to the top 10 in 2013 (another projected weak draft), is this better or worse?
Top 10 in 2013
Bennett (huge bust)
Oladipo (2x all star)
Otto Porter (low level starter)
Cody Zeller (bench player)
Alex Len (bust/bench player)
Nerlens Noel (bench player)
Mclemore (bust)
KCP (decent starter)
Trey Burke (bust)
CJ McCollum (good starter, fringe allstar)

A bit better, I'd think. In the end, I think this will be known as the Nikola Topic draft, but I have fairly high expectations for several other guys--Buzelis, Risacher, Williams, etc.

I'm also interested to see if Ulrich Chomche and Dink Pate get into this draft.

One player that has a very critical combine coming up is Isaiah Collier.

Needs a good height, wingspan, and body fat measurement.

How would we currently rate the quality of high major college?

I think the portal/NIL/Covid Year has arguably increased the level of play somewhat significantly via talent consolidation in the top conferences and keeping guys in school longer.

I always struggle gauging against the Euro domestic leagues though. Plus the G-League is kind of in a weird place.

get ready for the media's full-court press on behalf of Dillingham since he signed with Klutch. Announced he's coming out on NBA today. How many other prospects from this class have done this? Adjust your mock drafts and big boards accordingly. This indicates to me that my concern about whether a team will build around him is unwarranted. If a team is going to buy into his offense and ignore his defense and leadership then he's going to move up my board because he's going higher than I thought he should. There's only a few star power players from this draft class and he's one of them. He'd make a lot of sense for a team desperate for a star to get their fan base excited (Wizards, Bulls (assuming they're moving off LaVine and DeRozan), and Raptors or teams like the Spurs and Heat that need PGs that have defenders to protect him.

BlazersBroncos wrote:Ya I think Holland could be closer to 6'5. Matas looked way bigger than him out there.

6'5 with that skillset just isnt going to be a wining combo for Holland. Shades of RHJ.

he definitely didn't. Holland looks almost the same height. Maybe an inch between them at most. If Buzelis is 6'9" it makes Holland nearly 6'8". If Holland is 6'5" it means Buzelis is less than 6'7" and we know that's not true.

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/ignite-update-ron-holland-matas-nba-draft-lottery

eminence wrote:Castle will be one of the guys the combine is most important for (imo). Big difference if he measures as a big guard or as a smaller wing.

Who else do folks feel the combine will be important for?

all of them. There are question marks regarding size, wingspan, verticals, etc with all prospects like there is every draft. A inch or two in height or wingspan can make or break a prospect.

Early Eye test (which I'll use over even "official" measurements but won't be solidified until the combine) w/out sneakers

Sarr = 6' 11.25"
Risacher = 6' 7.5"
Holland = 6' 6.25
Buzelis = 6' 7.5"
Williams = 6' 6"
Topic = 6' 4.25"
Castle = 6' 4.5"
Dillingham = 6' 0.75"
Sheppard = 6' 1.25"
Collier = 6' 2.75"
Clingan = 6' 11.5"
Carter = 6' 2"
McCain = 6' 2"
Knecht = 6' 4.75"
Ware = 6' 10.25"
Bona = 6' 8.5"
Salaun = 6' 8"
Klintman = 6' 6.75"
Furphy = 6' 7"
Walter = 6' 4"
Missi = 6' 9.5"
Ndongo = 6' 8.75"
Watkins = 6' 4"
da Silva = 6' 7.5"
George = 6' 7"
Smith = 6'8.5"
Filipowski = 6' 10"
Carrington = 6' 4.5"
Edwards = 6' 4.5"
Grant-Foster = 6' 5.75"

TheSuzerain wrote:How would we currently rate the quality of high major college?

I think the portal/NIL/Covid Year has arguably increased the level of play somewhat significantly via talent consolidation in the top conferences and keeping guys in school longer.

I always struggle gauging against the Euro domestic leagues though. Plus the G-League is kind of in a weird place.

The thing about the NCAA is that the bottom is straight up garbage, but the good teams are actually very good.
I'd say a top 25 NCAA team is probably good enough to compete in the Euroleague and not get totally embarrassed, and as someone who watches a fair bit of Euroleague I am pretty sure Zach Edey would be the best player there on day 1. And Knecht would be a huge Euroleague superstar as well.
If they are in a top program and performing well, I don't think they are much worse if any than good Euroleague players.
If they aren't in a ranked program then they are probably not that good though and wouldn't see much playing time though.

Some interesting notes on this class from Pelton -

“Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.”

The four in reference are Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr and Edey

Top 5 on his stats model:

1. Sheppard
2. Edey
3. Clingan
4. Sarr
5. Furphy

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

The Moose wrote:Some interesting notes on this class from Pelton -

“Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.”

The four in reference are Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr and Edey

Top 5 on his stats model:

1. Sheppard
2. Edey
3. Clingan
4. Sarr
5. Furphy

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

seems laughable. Model must be heavily weighted towards college production with the assumption that it's mostly translatable to the pros which I can promise you, isn't going to be the case with any of them (Sarr obviously doesn't count since he didn't play in college).

The Moose wrote:Some interesting notes on this class from Pelton -

“Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.”

The four in reference are Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr and Edey

Top 5 on his stats model:

1. Sheppard
2. Edey
3. Clingan
4. Sarr
5. Furphy

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system



Ah yes, anyone who ranks Zhou Qi over Jamal Murray is well worth the read. Quality content as usual, ESPN.

Risacher down to 39% from three.

The people who thought he was an elite elite shooter because he shot 49% from three in his first 25 games were very funny (I guess some scouts included?).

He's much better than Agbaji, but a lot of Agbaji vibes here with people gaslighting themselves into believing this guy was a much better shooter than he actually was.

There are way too many euro mystery boxes this year. One of them is bound to be good. One of them is gonna be Jan Vesley from day one.

Unless someone has watched every minute of their every game, they wouldn't know the difference.

CptCrunch wrote:There are way too many euro mystery boxes this year. One of them is bound to be good. One of them is gonna be Jan Vesley from day one.

Unless someone has watched every minute of their every game, they wouldn't know the difference.

I have watched a ton of most of these guys and it's really easy to.

Risacher is not a mystery box at all, he's played a billion games against quality competition. He plays very hard on defense and has a good defensive IQ, but his tools are average on defense. Offensively, he has little to no talent.

Cody Williams is the most obvious "mystery box" of any player because he had a growth spurt that sapped all of his athleticism right before college and barely played any games in college due to injury. It's very hard to tell where his athleticism ends up because he's so underweight and it's hard to judge his skill level because he barely played.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:Risacher down to 39% from three.

The people who thought he was an elite elite shooter because he shot 49% from three in his first 25 games were very funny (I guess some scouts included?).

He's much better than Agbaji, but a lot of Agbaji vibes here with people gaslighting themselves into believing this guy was a much better shooter than he actually was.

So underwhelming for an 'elite' shooter

The top 5 talk is crazy, and for me he doesn't have any business in the top 10. He's mostly riding off fraud hype still. NBA GM's fall head over heels to reach for mediocre wing prospects these days, but a sharp team will take a guy like Furphy much later and get better value for this archetype.

I keep seeing "Castle is an elite defender" being thrown around and I don't know if these people watched UConn play at all or looked at Castle's stats.

He was good at defense but

1. Frequently got toasted by high level scorers
2. Got almost no steals
3. Got almost no blocks
4. Could play much more aggressively on defense due to having Clingan behind him

This guy, like Risacher, is not going to be drafted to be a defensive stopper but a guy who plays hard on defense and isn't a liability.

And yeah, I know hyping up a guy as "not a liability at defense" is intensely depressing for players that aren't good at offense, but it's much more accurate. You draft Castle and Risacher hoping they can be league average (and this isn't a lock at all) starters who have the size to not fall off in the postseason.

The Moose wrote:Some interesting notes on this class from Pelton -

“Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.”

The four in reference are Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr and Edey

Top 5 on his stats model:

1. Sheppard
2. Edey
3. Clingan
4. Sarr
5. Furphy

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

Pelton's model very much does not believe in 5th year JUCO transfer Dalton Knecht, lol.

(Cody Williams rating so badly isn't really a surprise either. Williams currently is nowhere close to an NBA player. He needs huge athleticism gains that are very uncommon, but may happen for him since his body is so clearly underdeveloped)

I'm curious how high Dink Pate can go if he were allowed an exception to be in the draft.