Deni Avdija - 2020 draft

[MotownMadness]

trading back for the Warriors should be #1 priority

i'd take less than premium to trade back too, i'd do it for the NYK picks for instance

What if Edwards is there?

[arusinov]

Avdija's biased assesment from an Israeli fan

I will not claim that this post is not biased. As Israeli I'm hopeful for Deni and naturally look for his advantages and probably somewhat downplay his short-comes.

But as someone who followed his development for several years I would try to present his case showing facts which many reports lacking or omits while trying to explain why I think Deni is a great pick:

Main selling points which probably known to most people but should be stated as the discussion's starting point

* Excellent playmaking abilities on extremely rare level for 6'9" player:

- proficient in running p&r as a ball handler

- passes very well out of post (including LeBron style cross-court passes)

- great passing in transition

* Versatile and effective scorer

- good finisher around basket: improved a lot this season, has one of best 2P% among all prospects - ~65%, both crafty and athletic, can finish with either hand

- very smart cutter due to his high BBIQ

- advanced post game, can post up on either side

- shooting potential: there're legitimate concerns about 3P% but Avdija has good range and quick release from high point, can shoot off-dribble including step-backs

- Iso-scoring potential - attacks basket successfully when guarded by forwards (and use mismatches closer to basket against smaller wings)

* Can quickly became elite open court player

- good defensive rebounder and great in pushing ball in transition

- can go coast to coast extremely fast

- great passer in high-speed sequences with excellent court vision and top-level passing precision

* High work ethics and drive to win

2. Stereotypes and misunderstanding

* Advija is frequently called "not an athletic player" or at best "just average athlete in NBA" and subsequently compared with really slow and not athletic players like Saric

While not freak athlete Avdija is very athletic player, well above average for NBA forward/big wing

- his straight line speed is rare, he runs near full court with the ball from steal/defensive rebound to dunk in less than 4 seconds

- very good leaping ability, and not only of one-foot per some reports, but of two-feet too: at age of 17 he was measured with no-step vertical of 31" and max vertical of 35", and improved a lot since then: he almost touches rim with his head in some of running dunks (\~37-39" max vertical), can easily dunks from standing (\~33-34" no-step vertical)

- his good blocking abilities are based not only on positioning but also on very good verticality

- first step is not elite, but still much quicker than of most similar size NBA players

* Another (minor) knock on Avidja's physical qualities is his presumably short wingspan of 6'9".

- actually this number cames from the same measurement 2 years ago as the verticals value, he also was 6'7.5" then so his current wingspan is probably ~6'10.5" which is not that much below NBA's average for his size.


* Many reports claim that he's too weak to defend inside

- it was correct year ago when he weighted 210 lbs, he added muslces before start of the season and in time of Covid-19 hiatus

- now he weights around 227 lbs - without loosing in speed or vertical

- having good relatively wide frame he probably can add another 10-15 lbs while preserving current level of athleticism

* People say that their team needs more defense and "Advija can't defend".

- No one knows whether Advija will be good defender in NBA, but saying about player which had 2.4 blk per game in Euro U20 (including 3.3 blk per game in sequence of QF/ SF /F ) and was considered above average defender in Euroleague as 18 - 19 years old that he "can't defend" seems to be an opinion squarely based on prejudice.

- He is regarded as very good team/ help defender and not bad personal defender on wing (in Euroleague) which can switch on bigs and guards

* Statistics and accomplishments

Many people which call Avdija "just a prospect" seems to know only about his "struggles" (4.0 / 2.6 /1.2) in Euroleague. Others dismiss his Israeli domestic league and Euro U20 success as being against weak competition

*While nowhere close to Doncic's success (which is one of the kind) Avdija is one of most accomplished top prospects in recent drafts (as in those one-and-done times most top selections best achievement was getting through couple of rounds in NCAA tournament)

- He was dominant player since junior teams time: MVP of the BWB European Camp, MVP of the BWB Global Camp, all-tournament team selection in Euroleague U18 tournament (with averages of 24.7 pts/ 12.0 rbs / 6.7 ast) and so on

- He was selected to all-tournament team of 2018 Euro U20 while being just 17 years old (some 2.5 younger then average age of players in the tournament)

- At 2019 Euro U20 he provided one of best and most dominating perfromances in the history of the tournament. Avdija posted 18.4 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.1 stl, 2.4 blk (top 5 in tournament in each category while being 2nd youngest among all players in the tournament), leading Israeli to the gold and becoming youngest ever Euro U20 MVP.

- In Israeli BSL league Avdija had 12.9 pts (on effective 61.3 TS% scoring), 6.3 reb, 2.7 ast. for the best team in the league and got MVP award

*Considering level of competition in Israeli league:

- While certainly not one of best league in Europe I-BSL is still much stronger competition that any NCAA prospect faced
- The league features many ex-NBA players and European vets
- Players which score ~13 - 15ppg like Avdija in I-BSL are expected to score in double digits in more prominent European leagues as for example French LNP-ProA or even Spanish ACB - Tomer Ginat, Rafi Menco, Jake Cohen, Kyvon Davenport are just this year examples

*Also there's assumption that even if average level of I-BSL is not really bad - playing specifically for Maccabi is an easy task. This assumption is wrong for for a young player:

- Maccabi's largest (by wide margin) budget still doesn't insure championship. For example in 2015-16 they finished I-BSL regular season 24W /9L in 2nd place, in 2016-17 in 4th place with 14 losses.

- Euroleague is the primary competition for Maccabi but it doesn't mean that losses in I-BSL are tolerated. Usually only really great season in Euroleague may save coach's job in case of failure in the domestic league and so Maccabi is notoriously known for not giving young players opportunities.

- Even if the youngster gets into Maccabi's rotation in I-BSL in order to be among the team's leaders he should outperform ex-NBA players and Euroleague vets.

- This year 24W/ 4L despite many injuries the team was plagued with in very large part because of good play of Avdija

- Most important is Avdija's progress as the season went on: he started season as just a rotational player which didn't start majority of games, but at the second half of the season he became the team go-to player averaging over 15 ppg second half of the season

* People claim that Avdija succeeded in lesser competitions but "struggled greatly" in Euroleague but it's not really what happened

-The perceived lack of success in Euroleague was first due to the fact that at the start of the season the coach didn't consider Avdija as part of the team's rotation in Euroleague

- 18 years old players (not named Luka Doncic) are almost never in playoff Euroleague teams' rotation

- Player which " struggles greatly " would get glued to the bench but in fact Advija's minutes and role went up steadily. Minutes went from ~10 min to ~15 min to ~20 min last games, and average production improved from ~2.5 ppg to ~5 ppg to ~7 ppg

- Also while being 3&D wing (which was the only role the coach was ready to give 18 years old in Euroleague) isn't the best fit for Avdija's game, he adopted pretty well - played good defense and finished efficiently around basket on cuts, post-ups and in transition... his 3P shooting was on/off as typical for him right now

* Real concerns

- Deni has great feel for the game and he's very gifted playmaker but his ball handling ability isn't good enough to be primary ball handler as he's very right-hand dominant

- His FT% is weirdly low and his long range shooting is inconsistent. It seems that something in his (looking relatively good) shot mechanics or in his head causes him to be on/off shooter from any distance including FT

* Concusuion

- I don't see any reason why Deni wouldn't became at least roleplayer which can start contribute from the first day.

- Improving ball handling and consistent shot would unlock star potential.

[SF_Warriors]

If defense is paramount, who would you take for GSW? Okongwu?

I really like Okungwu, but not at 2. And we already have Marquesse Chriss who is about the exact same size as Okungwu. The Warriors need a legit big man and shot blocker at center.

Personally I think Wiseman is both the BPA and the Best fit for us.

If I were going wing there are several guys I’d be happy with on a trade down. For defensive purposes I think Vassell and Okoro are the best wing defenders. Patrick Williams will be a versatile defender because of his size too.

The Warriors have so many ways in which they can go, it’s impossible to nail down. I just really don’t like or see the fit with Lamelo Ball.....like not at all.

I’m I tired of people saying the Warriors will draft a big at the top of the draft. All the centers they’ve had since being successful have been either midseason free agent signings, second round picks (or close to second round — Looney) or they’ve been on minimum contracts. They got Cauley-Stein and forgot they don’t get centers so they traded him. They don’t value bigs. They value guys who are the size of wings. 6’5 to 6’9. I don’t think they keep the pick. I don’t think they want LaMelo, but they would draft Anthony Edwards. They might trade back and try to get Haliburton or Mannion.

So did they trade WCS because they don't value bigs or is it because he sucks?

[doordoor123]

I really like Okungwu, but not at 2. And we already have Marquesse Chriss who is about the exact same size as Okungwu. The Warriors need a legit big man and shot blocker at center.

Personally I think Wiseman is both the BPA and the Best fit for us.

If I were going wing there are several guys I’d be happy with on a trade down. For defensive purposes I think Vassell and Okoro are the best wing defenders. Patrick Williams will be a versatile defender because of his size too.

The Warriors have so many ways in which they can go, it’s impossible to nail down. I just really don’t like or see the fit with Lamelo Ball.....like not at all.

I’m I tired of people saying the Warriors will draft a big at the top of the draft. All the centers they’ve had since being successful have been either midseason free agent signings, second round picks (or close to second round — Looney) or they’ve been on minimum contracts. They got Cauley-Stein and forgot they don’t get centers so they traded him. They don’t value bigs. They value guys who are the size of wings. 6’5 to 6’9. I don’t think they keep the pick. I don’t think they want LaMelo, but they would draft Anthony Edwards. They might trade back and try to get Haliburton or Mannion.

So did they trade WCS because they don't value bigs or is it because he sucks?

My stance on this has changed. Its a good idea to look at the date when responding. Or you can ask me if I still feel this way. In that case, I do not.

[SF_Warriors]

I’m I tired of people saying the Warriors will draft a big at the top of the draft. All the centers they’ve had since being successful have been either midseason free agent signings, second round picks (or close to second round — Looney) or they’ve been on minimum contracts. They got Cauley-Stein and forgot they don’t get centers so they traded him. They don’t value bigs. They value guys who are the size of wings. 6’5 to 6’9. I don’t think they keep the pick. I don’t think they want LaMelo, but they would draft Anthony Edwards. They might trade back and try to get Haliburton or Mannion.

So did they trade WCS because they don't value bigs or is it because he sucks?

My stance on this has changed. Its a good idea to look at the date when responding. Or you can ask me if I still feel this way. In that case, I do not.

Two months is not exactly a long time ago. Has your stance on WCS changed since then?

[doordoor123]

So did they trade WCS because they don't value bigs or is it because he sucks?

My stance on this has changed. Its a good idea to look at the date when responding. Or you can ask me if I still feel this way. In that case, I do not.

Two months is not exactly a long time ago. Has your stance on WCS changed since then?

4 months

[Mylie10]

I’m getting a Jeremy Lin fanboy vibe from the Deni fans....Yikes!

[SF_Warriors]

My stance on this has changed. Its a good idea to look at the date when responding. Or you can ask me if I still feel this way. In that case, I do not.

Two months is not exactly a long time ago. Has your stance on WCS changed since then?

4 months

The timestamp said 8/31. Regardless, if your view has changed, how so?

[Roddy B for 3]

*Bump*
What does this draft board think about avdija now? He was extremely discussed for a #8 overall pick.

[BlazersBroncos]

I thought Deni could be a #3 option but his offense really has not come around scoring wise, but he is a really smart player who surprisingly has excelled at defense (The biggest question mark coming into the L for him). I think he is set to be a elite role player who a winning team would gladly overpay. Does all the little things at a great level, passes well, defends well, moves the ball well, seemingly knows his limitations.

I see a great 5th starter on a playoff team, maybe thats a dissapointment and maybe he can find that next level of scoring but thats his trajectory right now to me.

[Rafael122]

In a redraft, does he go top 5? Ball, Edwards, Haliburton go top 3 in some order.

[MemphisX]

In a redraft, does he go top 5? Ball, Edwards, Haliburton go top 3 in some order.

Bane
Maxey

He likely goes right around where he was drafted at 9.

[BlazersBroncos]

In a redraft, does he go top 5? Ball, Edwards, Haliburton go top 3 in some order.

Bane
Maxey

He likely goes right around where he was drafted at 9.

Ya, I think it would go:

1. Ball
2. Edwards
3. Hali
4. Bane
5. Maxey
6. Bey
7. Vassell
8. OO
9. Deni

Might be selling Cole short but I see him as a 6th man at best on a decent team.

[bdoody42]

Deni has made some strides and I expect a jump from him next year unless the team gets loaded on the wing.

[BostonCouchGM]

he's very talented but unfortunately the Wizards and teams like them are often times the worst places for young guys to go to. These teams would rather play the Ish Smith, KCP, Harrell, Dinwiddie, etc and try to make the play-in then take their lumps and develop young players. It not only keeps them from developing young players but it never allows them to pick high enough in drafts to get the true superstar potential players. Instead of drafting SGA or MPJ they get Troy Brown, instead of Garland or Morant they get Rui. But they did luck out and Deni falls to them but then he has injuries and then they sit him behind scrubs but even then, 12-8-3 isn't too shabby all things considered. I still believe in him and think he can be a Hayward type player.

[Colbinii]

In a redraft, does he go top 5? Ball, Edwards, Haliburton go top 3 in some order.

maybe top 10

[Colbinii]

The 2020 draft is looking excellent and Deni is a big reason for it.

I would love for an actual good team to give up some real assets for Deni. I think he would thrive with talent.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think this is a great example of not judging prospects until they've had time to develop and opportunity to show it. There's a lot of similar prospects in the 2024 class that will likewise need the right landing spot and patience before casting judgement. Deni went to arguably the worst situation in the NBA. He dealt with injuries, coaching changes, and competing agendas from ownership down. Only now that the Wizards have embraced tanking has Deni approached 10 fga per game and he's finally proving how good he can be. Wizards should be building around guys like him and Coulibaly but they're so inept they'll probably trade him just as he's rewarding them for drafting him in the first place.

If they are thinking of trading him, the Kings are rumored to be shopping Mitchell and I think a swap with them for Deni makes sense for both teams since each of them need a change of scenery and fill needs. I think both are starting caliber players but Mitchell is blocked with us and Deni might get his opportunities taken from him at any time going by his history with the Wizards.

[Colbinii]

I think this is a great example of not judging prospects until they've had time to develop and opportunity to show it. There's a lot of similar prospects in the 2024 class that will likewise need the right landing spot and patience before casting judgement. Deni went to arguably the worst situation in the NBA. He dealt with injuries, coaching changes, and competing agendas from ownership down. Only now that the Wizards have embraced tanking has Deni approached 10 fga per game and he's finally proving how good he can be. Wizards should be building around guys like him and Coulibaly but they're so inept they'll probably trade him just as he's rewarding them for drafting him in the first place.

If they are thinking of trading him, the Kings are rumored to be shopping Mitchell and I think a swap with them for Deni makes sense for both teams since each of them need a change of scenery and fill needs. I think both are starting caliber players but Mitchell is blocked with us and Deni might get his opportunities taken from him at any time going by his history with the Wizards.

Huh? Deni is worth significantly more than Mitchell.

[MemphisX]

The 2020 draft is looking excellent and Deni is a big reason for it.

I would love for an actual good team to give up some real assets for Deni. I think he would thrive with talent.

Grizz fans (and our GM) have coveted him since he came into the league.