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babyjax13 wrote:The Michigan game definitely illustrates what Sensabaugh is at his worst: if he can't score, he doesn't contribute anything positive. You have to be really confident that he is enough of an outlier scorer to overcome bad defense, and to justify having the ball in his hands quite a bit.

His last three games have been really poor. The Wisconsin game looks solid from a scoring perspective but he fouled out quickly not least due to terrible perimeter defense that I am sure was a reason why he was benched the next two games. Then came Michigan and now Northwestern, and it was quite ugly all around. Not sure if he also checked out mentally to some extent but to me that would only add to the list of concerns. The toughest evaluation in this draft, even more so than the Thompson twins, in my opinion.

The-Power wrote:His last three games have been really poor.

Make it the last four – potentially the worst one, certainly from looking at the numbers. Are the wings coming off for him?

babyjax13 wrote:The Michigan game definitely illustrates what Sensabaugh is at his worst: if he can't score, he doesn't contribute anything positive. You have to be really confident that he is enough of an outlier scorer to overcome bad defense, and to justify having the ball in his hands quite a bit.

the problem also is his scoring is shot-making dependent, not a lot of self-creation tools or ability to consistently pressure the rim, and as we're seeing now when he goes thru shooting slumps which are inevitable, he turns into a pretty big net negative on the court.

I think he's still undervalued given his offensive production as a freshman.

Since 2008 there has only been 12 freshman enter the draft with an OBPM of 7.4 or higher

Zion - pick 1
AD - Pick 1
Ayton - Pick 1
Fultz - Pick 1
Beasley - pick 2
Bagley - pick 2
Russell - pick 2
Lonzo - pick 2
Kevin Love - Pick 5
Trae Young - Pick 5
Jamal Murray - Pick 7
Lauri Markkanen - Pick 7

Average draft pick = 3

This year two more have a chance to be added to this group, Brandon Miller and… Brice Sensabaugh.
Brandon Miller is expected to go pick 3, and Brice is currently projected to go 15-25.

Brice has struggles defensively, but he just has too much talent, skill and touch offensively for me to put him outside the top 10.

I mean there literally is only 1 other High-Major guard in Barttorvik's database, which goes back to 2008, that had a 30 USG + 55% EFG+10% AST, and that's sophomore James Harden.

I do wonder how much higher he would be viewed had he been a 5 star HS recruit vs a guy who wasn't even supposed to be a one and done. I guess the two biggest question marks for Brice are scalability and defense.

The Moose wrote:I think he's still undervalued given his offensive production as a freshman.

Since 2008 there has only been 12 freshman enter the draft with an OBPM of 7.4 or higher

Zion - pick 1
AD - Pick 1
Ayton - Pick 1
Fultz - Pick 1
Beasley - pick 2
Bagley - pick 2
Russell - pick 2
Lonzo - pick 2
Kevin Love - Pick 5
Trae Young - Pick 5
Jamal Murray - Pick 7
Lauri Markkanen - Pick 7

Average draft pick = 3

This year two more have a chance to be added to this group, Brandon Miller and… Brice Sensabaugh.
Brandon Miller is expected to go pick 3, and Brice is currently projected to go 15-25.

Brice has struggles defensively, but he just has too much talent, skill and touch offensively for me to put him outside the top 10.

I mean there literally is only 1 other High-Major guard in Barttorvik's database, which goes back to 2008, that had a 30 USG + 55% EFG+10% AST, and that's sophomore James Harden.

I do wonder how much higher he would be viewed had he been a 5 star HS recruit vs a guy who wasn't even supposed to be a one and done. I guess the two biggest question marks for Brice are scalability and defense.

I have him 12 and I go back and forth whether I should move him up a few more spots but defense is definitely an issue and I value it very highly when ranking. Everyone I have ahead of him project well on defense.

EMG518 wrote:

The Moose wrote:I think he's still undervalued given his offensive production as a freshman.

Since 2008 there has only been 12 freshman enter the draft with an OBPM of 7.4 or higher

Zion - pick 1
AD - Pick 1
Ayton - Pick 1
Fultz - Pick 1
Beasley - pick 2
Bagley - pick 2
Russell - pick 2
Lonzo - pick 2
Kevin Love - Pick 5
Trae Young - Pick 5
Jamal Murray - Pick 7
Lauri Markkanen - Pick 7

Average draft pick = 3

This year two more have a chance to be added to this group, Brandon Miller and… Brice Sensabaugh.
Brandon Miller is expected to go pick 3, and Brice is currently projected to go 15-25.

Brice has struggles defensively, but he just has too much talent, skill and touch offensively for me to put him outside the top 10.

I mean there literally is only 1 other High-Major guard in Barttorvik's database, which goes back to 2008, that had a 30 USG + 55% EFG+10% AST, and that's sophomore James Harden.

I do wonder how much higher he would be viewed had he been a 5 star HS recruit vs a guy who wasn't even supposed to be a one and done. I guess the two biggest question marks for Brice are scalability and defense.

I have him 12 and I go back and forth whether I should move him up a few more spots but defense is definitely an issue and I value it very highly when ranking. Everyone I have ahead of him project well on defense.

I think he just needs to be average on defense, and not unplayable ala Cam Thomas. But he has much more size and strength than a guy like Cam, and Brice was actually a very good rebounder for his size.

He had the highest defensive rebounding rate of any high major freshman 6'6 or shorter in the country this year

I have him at the very back end of the top 10

Call me crazy but Sensabaugh reminds me of Larry Bird. Brice has a great form on his jumpshot, looks absolutly perfect and he kicks out his lead leg when he shoots, just like Larry did, no matter how off balance he is. Sensabaugh might be the best shooter in the whole draft.

My biggest concern like most have said is his tunnel vision and lack of passing.

You’re crazy


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Reminds me of TJ Warren.

Best as a microwave scorer off the bench, but probably not a building block type of player.

EMG518 wrote:

The Moose wrote:I think he's still undervalued given his offensive production as a freshman.

Since 2008 there has only been 12 freshman enter the draft with an OBPM of 7.4 or higher

Zion - pick 1
AD - Pick 1
Ayton - Pick 1
Fultz - Pick 1
Beasley - pick 2
Bagley - pick 2
Russell - pick 2
Lonzo - pick 2
Kevin Love - Pick 5
Trae Young - Pick 5
Jamal Murray - Pick 7
Lauri Markkanen - Pick 7

Average draft pick = 3

This year two more have a chance to be added to this group, Brandon Miller and… Brice Sensabaugh.
Brandon Miller is expected to go pick 3, and Brice is currently projected to go 15-25.

Brice has struggles defensively, but he just has too much talent, skill and touch offensively for me to put him outside the top 10.

I mean there literally is only 1 other High-Major guard in Barttorvik's database, which goes back to 2008, that had a 30 USG + 55% EFG+10% AST, and that's sophomore James Harden.

I do wonder how much higher he would be viewed had he been a 5 star HS recruit vs a guy who wasn't even supposed to be a one and done. I guess the two biggest question marks for Brice are scalability and defense.

I have him 12 and I go back and forth whether I should move him up a few more spots but defense is definitely an issue and I value it very highly when ranking. Everyone I have ahead of him project well on defense.

I have him at 12 as well. I think anywhere from 9-14 is fair for him.

At a glance, he reminds me of Saddiq Bey as a prospect. He will go mid/late first round and find a quick role, his off-ball shooting is good and he has enough tools to keep defense honest, but then he wont grow or do much else from there. Depends on others to mostly create and has disappointing defensive impact.

atlantabbq99 wrote:Call me crazy but Sensabaugh reminds me of Larry Bird. Brice has a great form on his jumpshot, looks absolutly perfect and he kicks out his lead leg when he shoots, just like Larry did, no matter how off balance he is. Sensabaugh might be the best shooter in the whole draft.

My biggest concern like most have said is his tunnel vision and lack of passing.

Not even a remote chance that he is a better shooter than Jordan Hawkins.

jman3134 wrote:

atlantabbq99 wrote:Call me crazy but Sensabaugh reminds me of Larry Bird. Brice has a great form on his jumpshot, looks absolutly perfect and he kicks out his lead leg when he shoots, just like Larry did, no matter how off balance he is. Sensabaugh might be the best shooter in the whole draft.

My biggest concern like most have said is his tunnel vision and lack of passing.

Not even a remote chance that he is a better shooter than Jordan Hawkins.

I find it strange that you don't even think there is a remote chance when I believe I could easily argue he is. I mean he literally shot the ball better as a freshman vs Hawkins in every facet and as a sophomore Hawkins ft% went up and that is the only area he shot better than Sensabaugh as a freshman.

Sensabaugh has a really nice shot that he can get off in more ways than Hawkins as well.

I think there is a pretty good chance that he is a better and more diverse shooter than Hawkins.

44% on catch and shoot 3's, 52% on OTD 2pt jumpshots, 46% on OTD jumpshots overall, 83% ft, he definitely has an argument for being the most versatile elite shooter in the draft.

Brice is an extreme outlier as an OTD 2pt shooter, there was only 1 guys in this years class that shot >47% on 50+ 2pt jumpers OTD. Sensabaugh was at 52% on 97 attempts! That number is just absurd

Only 2 guys in the class who took 100+ jumpshots OTD and shot over 45%, Sensabaugh and Dick.

Only 5 guys in the class shot >40% on guarded and unguarded C&S 3's: Sensabaugh, Whitehead, Hendricks, Sasser and Strawther.

Only 10 guys in the class shot >36% on guarded 3's + pull up 3's:
Sensabaugh (43/111) 38.7%
Strawther (52/129) 40.3%
Podz (57/146) 39%
Scheierman (48/127) 37.8%
Hawkins (73/183) 39.9%
Dick (62/146) 42.5%
Whitehead (25/64) 39.1%
Hendricks (45/119) 37.8%
Trey Alexander (37/86) 43%
Colby jones (30/79) 38%

Hawkins is an elite catch and shoot 3pt shooter, but he was 32.7% on OTD jumpshots overall, thats a huge gap from Brice and Gradey. It's not like both aren't also elite catch and shoot guys either.

I would be looking at Hawkins/Sensabaugh/Dick as the best shooters in the class, and may lean Brice or Gradey because they can do it off the bounce too

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:At a glance, he reminds me of Saddiq Bey as a prospect. He will go mid/late first round and find a quick role, his off-ball shooting is good and he has enough tools to keep defense honest, but then he wont grow or do much else from there. Depends on others to mostly create and has disappointing defensive impact.

Maybe take a closer glance.

"he won't grow" what does this mean? Like he literally won't grow, like won't get taller? Probably not, but that's a weird criticism of a player. Won't grow his skill set? There's no reason to think that. He's still very young and appears to be a hard worker.

Also, a TON of his baskets this season were unassisted, so not sure what this "Depends on others to mostly create" stuff is about.

And his defense isn't great. But it's not that bad either. Got better defensively as the season went on.

The Moose wrote:44% on catch and shoot 3's, 52% on OTD 2pt jumpshots, 46% on OTD jumpshots overall, 83% ft, he definitely has an argument for being the most versatile elite shooter in the draft.

Brice is an extreme outlier as an OTD 2pt shooter, there was only 1 guys in this years class that shot >47% on 50+ 2pt jumpers OTD. Sensabaugh was at 52% on 97 attempts! That number is just absurd

Only 2 guys in the class who took 100+ jumpshots OTD and shot over 45%, Sensabaugh and Dick.

Only 5 guys in the class shot >40% on guarded and unguarded C&S 3's: Sensabaugh, Whitehead, Hendricks, Sasser and Strawther.

Only 10 guys in the class shot >36% on guarded 3's + pull up 3's:
Sensabaugh (43/111) 38.7%
Strawther (52/129) 40.3%
Podz (57/146) 39%
Scheierman (48/127) 37.8%
Hawkins (73/183) 39.9%
Dick (62/146) 42.5%
Whitehead (25/64) 39.1%
Hendricks (45/119) 37.8%
Trey Alexander (37/86) 43%
Colby jones (30/79) 38%

Hawkins is an elite catch and shoot 3pt shooter, but he was 32.7% on OTD jumpshots overall, thats a huge gap from Brice and Gradey. It's not like both aren't also elite catch and shoot guys either.

I would be looking at Hawkins/Sensabaugh/Dick as the best shooters in the class, and may lean Brice or Gradey because they can do it off the bounce too

Gradey and Brice are also a year and a half younger than Hawkins, so more of a development window to continue to improve as a shooter. Gradey and Brice are also taller than Hawkins, which will help them adjust to the NBA and being able to shoot over taller defenders.

EMG518 wrote:

jman3134 wrote:

atlantabbq99 wrote:Call me crazy but Sensabaugh reminds me of Larry Bird. Brice has a great form on his jumpshot, looks absolutly perfect and he kicks out his lead leg when he shoots, just like Larry did, no matter how off balance he is. Sensabaugh might be the best shooter in the whole draft.

My biggest concern like most have said is his tunnel vision and lack of passing.

Not even a remote chance that he is a better shooter than Jordan Hawkins.

I find it strange that you don't even think there is a remote chance when I believe I could easily argue he is. I mean he literally shot the ball better as a freshman vs Hawkins in every facet and as a sophomore Hawkins ft% went up and that is the only area he shot better than Sensabaugh as a freshman.

Sensabaugh has a really nice shot that he can get off in more ways than Hawkins as well.

I've started watching more film on all the prospects and before i started watching, i thought i was going to say Gradey or Hawkins is the Klay of the draft of 'best shooter' of the draft, but when i pulled up Sensabaugh, it became obvious Brice's shooting form and shooting mechanics is just flawless and better than Gradey, Hawkins, Wong, or Miller.

Gradey and Hawkins have good mechanics but Gradey has a slight hitch on elbow on his release, and Hawkins could improve his foot work.

As for Sensabaugh, every thing looks good, free throws, 3pt, midrange, spot ups, pick n rolls, fades, turn around over both shoulders. Brice's release is clean, good grip, no hitch on his elbow, has a high load point and high release point, and Brice has some of the best footwork i've seen since Anthony Mason or Larry Bird, which is why he can score in buckets even though he is not overly athletic.

Brice has some issues like he jerks his head back when he releases the ball, also his feet don't always land consistently.

The other thing is he's mostly a spot-up shooter. There's not as much utility to that as someone who shoots off movement consistently.

credit to NoCeilings for the clips, just some side by side comps of the scoring versatility for fun