Alex Sarr

coutournant · Post #61 » by **coutournant** » Thu May 16, 2024 4:34 pm

Porzingis and AD entered in the NBA as PF and played mainly at this position for many seasons.
Wemby can play PF, he's just a lot better at C, but he's ok at PF

HadAnEffectHere · Post #62 » by **HadAnEffectHere** » Thu May 16, 2024 4:42 pm

coutournant wrote:Porzingis and AD entered in the NBA as PF and played mainly at this position for many seasons.
Wemby can play PF, he's just a lot better at C, but he's ok at PF

Yeah, the era was completely different when AD and Porzingis entered the NBA. AD isn't skilled enough to play PF anymore and Porzingis isn't quick enough.

atlantabbq99 · Post #63 » by **atlantabbq99** » Thu May 16, 2024 4:43 pm

Bosh, KG, AD..... the more I watch his Perth games, he reminds me more of Jermaine O'Neal, especially with his touch and mid range 18 foot shot O'Neal use to have

CptCrunch · Post #64 » by **CptCrunch** » Thu May 16, 2024 4:45 pm

I hate the idea of drafting Sarr at #1, and he is why. The hit rate for PF/C is very low compared to guards. I'm gonna give 3 points for a star (or better), 2 for a role player, 1 for bust, 0 for out of league. If you want to fight me over the ratings, it's fine. Keep in mind changing one number won't change the overall outcome that much.

Draft picks from 2009 to 2022

Code: Select all

| Year| Pick|Name                   | Score| Position|
| 2022|    1|Paolo Banchero         |   3.0|      4.0|
| 2022|    2|Chet Holmgren          |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2022|    3|Jabari Smith Jr.       |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2021|    1|Cade Cunningham        |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2021|    2|Jalen Green            |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2021|    3|Evan Mobley            |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2020|    1|Anthony Edwards        |   3.0|      2.0|
| 2020|    2|James Wiseman          |   1.0|      4.5|
| 2020|    3|LaMelo Ball            |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2019|    1|Zion Williamson        |   2.5|      3.5|
| 2019|    2|Ja Morant              |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2019|    3|RJ Barrett             |   2.0|      3.0|
| 2018|    1|Deandre Ayton          |   2.0|      5.0|
| 2018|    2|Marvin Bagley III      |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2018|    3|Luka Doncic            |   3.0|      1.5|
| 2017|    1|Markelle Fultz         |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2017|    2|Lonzo Ball             |   1.5|      1.0|
| 2017|    3|Jayson Tatum           |   3.0|      3.0|
| 2016|    1|Ben Simmons            |   1.5|      1.0|
| 2016|    2|Brandon Ingram         |   2.5|      3.0|
| 2016|    3|Jaylen Brown           |   2.5|      3.0|
| 2015|    1|Karl-Anthony Towns     |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2015|    2|D'Angelo Russell       |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2015|    3|Jahlil Okafor          |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2014|    1|Andrew Wiggins         |   2.0|      3.0|
| 2014|    2|Jabari Parker          |   1.5|      3.5|
| 2014|    3|Joel Embiid            |   3.0|      5.0|
| 2013|    1|Anthony Bennett        |   0.0|      4.5|
| 2013|    2|Victor Oladipo         |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2013|    3|Otto Porter Jr.        |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2012|    1|Anthony Davis          |   3.0|      4.5|
| 2012|    2|Michael Kidd-Gilchrist |   1.0|      3.0|
| 2012|    3|Bradley Beal           |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2011|    1|Kyrie Irving           |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2011|    2|Derrick Williams       |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2011|    3|Enes Kanter            |   1.5|      4.0|
| 2010|    1|John Wall              |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2010|    2|Evan Turner            |   2.0|      1.0|
| 2010|    3|Derrick Favors         |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2009|    1|Blake Griffin          |   3.0|      4.0|
| 2009|    2|James Harden           |   3.0|      2.0|
| 2009|    3|Hasheem Thabeet        |   0.0|      5.0|

Mean draft value by pick

Code: Select all

| Pick | Value |
|     1|   2.29|
|     2|   1.96|
|     3|   2.10|

Mean draft value by position

Code: Select all

| Position| Value|
| PG/CG   |    2.28|
| CG/SG   |    2.33|
| SF/PF   |    2.11|
| PF/C    |    2.00|
| C       |    1.67|

Now Sarr is an offensively challenged C. True centers have the lowest hit rates at the top of the draft. This is considered to be a weak draft at the time. The average center drafted in the top 5 since 2009 is a between a bust and a role player; that is not a good track record.

clyde21 · Post #65 » by **clyde21** » Thu May 16, 2024 6:32 pm

while I agree with the logic on the surface, when that PF/C hits he typically brings more value than when a PG/CG hits

if your ranking system is just based on who is more likely to "hit" in the NBA, your top 5 is almost always going to be guards and combo guard types.

like, there is no way JaKobe isn't going to be an 18-22ppg scorer in the NBA imo, doesn't mean I think he should be taken in the the top3

CptCrunch · Post #66 » by **CptCrunch** » Thu May 16, 2024 8:26 pm

Since I was bored; here is a summary for last 15 years for first 7 picks (top half of lotto).

Code: Select all

| Year| Pick|Name                   | Score| Position|
|----:|----:|:----------------------|-----:|--------:|
| 2022|    1|Paolo Banchero         |   3.0|      4.0|
| 2022|    2|Chet Holmgren          |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2022|    3|Jabari Smith Jr.       |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2022|    4|Keegan Murray          |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2022|    5|Jaden Ivey             |   2.5|      2.0|
| 2022|    6|Bennedict Mathurin     |   2.0|      2.5|
| 2022|    7|Shaedon Sharpe         |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2021|    1|Cade Cunningham        |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2021|    2|Jalen Green            |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2021|    3|Evan Mobley            |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2021|    4|Scottie Barnes         |   2.5|      3.0|
| 2021|    5|Jalen Suggs            |   1.5|      1.5|
| 2021|    6|Josh Giddey            |   2.0|      1.0|
| 2021|    7|Jonathan Kuminga       |   1.5|      3.5|
| 2020|    1|Anthony Edwards        |   3.0|      2.0|
| 2020|    2|James Wiseman          |   1.0|      4.5|
| 2020|    3|LaMelo Ball            |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2020|    4|Patrick Williams       |   1.5|      3.5|
| 2020|    5|Isaac Okoro            |   1.5|      2.5|
| 2020|    6|Onyeka Okongwu         |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2020|    7|Killian Hayes          |   1.0|      1.5|
| 2019|    1|Zion Williamson        |   2.5|      3.5|
| 2019|    2|Ja Morant              |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2019|    3|RJ Barrett             |   2.0|      3.0|
| 2019|    4|DeAndre Hunter         |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2019|    5|Darius Garland         |   2.5|      1.5|
| 2019|    6|Jarrett Culver         |   1.0|      2.5|
| 2019|    7|Coby White             |   1.5|      1.5|
| 2018|    1|Deandre Ayton          |   2.0|      5.0|
| 2018|    2|Marvin Bagley III      |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2018|    3|Luka Doncic            |   3.0|      1.5|
| 2018|    4|Jaren Jackson Jr.      |   2.5|      4.0|
| 2018|    5|Trae Young             |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2018|    6|Mohamed Bamba          |   1.5|      5.0|
| 2018|    7|Wendell Carter Jr.     |   2.0|      4.5|
| 2017|    1|Markelle Fultz         |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2017|    2|Lonzo Ball             |   1.5|      1.0|
| 2017|    3|Jayson Tatum           |   3.0|      3.0|
| 2017|    4|Josh Jackson           |   1.0|      3.0|
| 2017|    5|DeAaron Fox            |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2017|    6|Jonathan Isaac         |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2017|    7|Lauri Markkanen        |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2016|    1|Ben Simmons            |   1.5|      1.0|
| 2016|    2|Brandon Ingram         |   2.5|      3.0|
| 2016|    3|Jaylen Brown           |   2.5|      3.0|
| 2016|    4|Dragan Bender          |   0.0|      4.5|
| 2016|    5|Kris Dunn              |   1.0|      1.5|
| 2016|    6|Buddy Hield            |   2.0|      2.5|
| 2016|    7|Jamal Murray           |   2.5|      1.5|
| 2015|    1|Karl-Anthony Towns     |   2.5|      4.5|
| 2015|    2|DAngelo Russell        |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2015|    3|Jahlil Okafor          |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2015|    4|Kristaps Porzingis     |   2.5|      4.0|
| 2015|    5|Mario Hezonja          |   1.0|      3.0|
| 2015|    6|Willie Cauley-Stein    |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2015|    7|Emmanuel Mudiay        |   1.0|      1.0|
| 2014|    1|Andrew Wiggins         |   2.0|      3.0|
| 2014|    2|Jabari Parker          |   1.5|      3.5|
| 2014|    3|Joel Embiid            |   3.0|      5.0|
| 2014|    4|Aaron Gordon           |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2014|    5|Dante Exum             |   1.0|      1.5|
| 2014|    6|Marcus Smart           |   2.0|      1.5|
| 2014|    7|Julius Randle          |   2.5|      4.0|
| 2013|    1|Anthony Bennett        |   0.0|      4.5|
| 2013|    2|Victor Oladipo         |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2013|    3|Otto Porter Jr.        |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2013|    4|Cody Zeller            |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2013|    5|Alex Len               |   1.0|      5.0|
| 2013|    6|Nerlens Noel           |   2.0|      4.5|
| 2013|    7|Ben McLemore           |   1.5|      2.0|
| 2012|    1|Anthony Davis          |   3.0|      4.5|
| 2012|    2|Michael Kidd-Gilchrist |   1.0|      3.0|
| 2012|    3|Bradley Beal           |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2012|    4|Dion Waiters           |   1.5|      2.0|
| 2012|    5|Thomas Robinson        |   1.0|      4.0|
| 2012|    6|Damian Lillard         |   3.0|      1.5|
| 2012|    7|Harrison Barnes        |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2011|    1|Kyrie Irving           |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2011|    2|Derrick Williams       |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2011|    3|Enes Kanter            |   1.5|      4.0|
| 2011|    4|Tristan Thompson       |   2.0|      4.5|
| 2011|    5|Jonas Valanciunas      |   2.0|      5.0|
| 2011|    6|Jan Vesely             |   0.0|      4.0|
| 2011|    7|Bismack Biyombo        |   1.5|      4.5|
| 2010|    1|John Wall              |   2.5|      1.0|
| 2010|    2|Evan Turner            |   2.0|      1.0|
| 2010|    3|Derrick Favors         |   2.0|      4.0|
| 2010|    4|Wesley Johnson         |   1.0|      3.0|
| 2010|    5|DeMarcus Cousins       |   2.5|      5.0|
| 2010|    6|Ekpe Udoh              |   1.0|      4.5|
| 2010|    7|Greg Monroe            |   2.5|      4.0|
| 2009|    1|Blake Griffin          |   3.0|      4.0|
| 2009|    2|James Harden           |   3.0|      2.0|
| 2009|    3|Hasheem Thabeet        |   0.0|      5.0|
| 2009|    4|Wesley Matthews        |   2.5|      2.0|
| 2009|    5|Ricky Rubio            |   2.0|      1.0|
| 2009|    6|Jonny Flynn            |   1.0|      1.5|
| 2009|    7|Stephen Curry          |   3.0|      1.5|
| 2008|    1|Derrick Rose           |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2008|    2|Michael Beasley        |   1.5|      4.0|
| 2008|    3|O.J. Mayo              |   2.0|      2.0|
| 2008|    4|Russell Westbrook      |   3.0|      1.0|
| 2008|    5|Kevin Love             |   3.0|      4.0|
| 2008|    6|Danilo Gallinari       |   2.0|      3.5|
| 2008|    7|Eric Gordon            |   2.5|      2.0|

Code: Select all

|1      |2      |3      |4      |5      |6      |7      |
|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|
|Pick 1 |Pick 2 |Pick 3 |Pick 4 |Pick 5 |Pick 6 |Pick 7 |
|2.333  |1.933  |2.1    |1.833  |1.833  |1.667  |1.933  |

Code: Select all

|1     |2     |3     |4     |5     |
|:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----|
|PG/CG |CG/SG |SF/PF |PF/C  |C     |
|2.103 |2.062 |1.881 |1.844 |1.714 |

Code: Select all

|FALSE |TRUE  |
|:-----|:-----|
|Not C |Is C  |
|2.03  |1.652 |

Draft picks in general are ordered correctly except 2nd pick has underproduced (for whatever reason) which we already knew. Centers are bad business to draft. The average C drafted in top 7 is between a role player and a bust. The average not center is a role player.

Guards strictly less risky than wings and less than centers. The smaller the player's position on the court; the less likely he is bust. I have a good potential explanation for this. Smaller players need to be more skilled and have to beat out so many more competitors at every level. The number of ballers (below 2 std above the mean or roughly 6'3" in the US) are immense (exceeding over 95%+ of the US population) whereas if you are above 7 foot, there is a 1 in 6 chance that you will play in the NBA. The skill requirement goes down the bigger you are as a basketball player. Of course we all want 7 foot skilled demons like Durant, Chet, Wemby, but I am pretty damn sure Sarr isn't one of them.

GoBobs · Post #67 » by **GoBobs** » Fri May 17, 2024 12:05 am

People thinking his nba is going to be defense might want to go watch his tape.

Waynearchetype · Post #68 » by **Waynearchetype** » Fri May 17, 2024 2:39 pm

CptCrunch wrote:Since I was bored; here is a summary for last 15 years for first 7 picks (top half of lotto).

Code: Select all
| Year| Pick|Name | Score| Position| |----:|----:|:----------------------|-----:|--------:| | 2022| 1|Paolo Banchero | 3.0| 4.0| | 2022| 2|Chet Holmgren | 2.5| 4.5| | 2022| 3|Jabari Smith Jr. | 2.0| 4.0| | 2022| 4|Keegan Murray | 2.0| 3.5| | 2022| 5|Jaden Ivey | 2.5| 2.0| | 2022| 6|Bennedict Mathurin | 2.0| 2.5| | 2022| 7|Shaedon Sharpe | 2.0| 2.0| | 2021| 1|Cade Cunningham | 2.0| 1.5| | 2021| 2|Jalen Green | 2.0| 2.0| | 2021| 3|Evan Mobley | 2.5| 4.5| | 2021| 4|Scottie Barnes | 2.5| 3.0| | 2021| 5|Jalen Suggs | 1.5| 1.5| | 2021| 6|Josh Giddey | 2.0| 1.0| | 2021| 7|Jonathan Kuminga | 1.5| 3.5| | 2020| 1|Anthony Edwards | 3.0| 2.0| | 2020| 2|James Wiseman | 1.0| 4.5| | 2020| 3|LaMelo Ball | 2.5| 1.0| | 2020| 4|Patrick Williams | 1.5| 3.5| | 2020| 5|Isaac Okoro | 1.5| 2.5| | 2020| 6|Onyeka Okongwu | 2.0| 4.0| | 2020| 7|Killian Hayes | 1.0| 1.5| | 2019| 1|Zion Williamson | 2.5| 3.5| | 2019| 2|Ja Morant | 3.0| 1.0| | 2019| 3|RJ Barrett | 2.0| 3.0| | 2019| 4|DeAndre Hunter | 2.0| 3.5| | 2019| 5|Darius Garland | 2.5| 1.5| | 2019| 6|Jarrett Culver | 1.0| 2.5| | 2019| 7|Coby White | 1.5| 1.5| | 2018| 1|Deandre Ayton | 2.0| 5.0| | 2018| 2|Marvin Bagley III | 1.5| 4.5| | 2018| 3|Luka Doncic | 3.0| 1.5| | 2018| 4|Jaren Jackson Jr. | 2.5| 4.0| | 2018| 5|Trae Young | 2.5| 1.0| | 2018| 6|Mohamed Bamba | 1.5| 5.0| | 2018| 7|Wendell Carter Jr. | 2.0| 4.5| | 2017| 1|Markelle Fultz | 2.0| 1.5| | 2017| 2|Lonzo Ball | 1.5| 1.0| | 2017| 3|Jayson Tatum | 3.0| 3.0| | 2017| 4|Josh Jackson | 1.0| 3.0| | 2017| 5|DeAaron Fox | 2.5| 1.0| | 2017| 6|Jonathan Isaac | 2.0| 3.5| | 2017| 7|Lauri Markkanen | 2.0| 4.0| | 2016| 1|Ben Simmons | 1.5| 1.0| | 2016| 2|Brandon Ingram | 2.5| 3.0| | 2016| 3|Jaylen Brown | 2.5| 3.0| | 2016| 4|Dragan Bender | 0.0| 4.5| | 2016| 5|Kris Dunn | 1.0| 1.5| | 2016| 6|Buddy Hield | 2.0| 2.5| | 2016| 7|Jamal Murray | 2.5| 1.5| | 2015| 1|Karl-Anthony Towns | 2.5| 4.5| | 2015| 2|DAngelo Russell | 2.0| 1.5| | 2015| 3|Jahlil Okafor | 1.5| 4.5| | 2015| 4|Kristaps Porzingis | 2.5| 4.0| | 2015| 5|Mario Hezonja | 1.0| 3.0| | 2015| 6|Willie Cauley-Stein | 1.5| 4.5| | 2015| 7|Emmanuel Mudiay | 1.0| 1.0| | 2014| 1|Andrew Wiggins | 2.0| 3.0| | 2014| 2|Jabari Parker | 1.5| 3.5| | 2014| 3|Joel Embiid | 3.0| 5.0| | 2014| 4|Aaron Gordon | 2.0| 3.5| | 2014| 5|Dante Exum | 1.0| 1.5| | 2014| 6|Marcus Smart | 2.0| 1.5| | 2014| 7|Julius Randle | 2.5| 4.0| | 2013| 1|Anthony Bennett | 0.0| 4.5| | 2013| 2|Victor Oladipo | 2.0| 2.0| | 2013| 3|Otto Porter Jr. | 2.0| 3.5| | 2013| 4|Cody Zeller | 1.5| 4.5| | 2013| 5|Alex Len | 1.0| 5.0| | 2013| 6|Nerlens Noel | 2.0| 4.5| | 2013| 7|Ben McLemore | 1.5| 2.0| | 2012| 1|Anthony Davis | 3.0| 4.5| | 2012| 2|Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 1.0| 3.0| | 2012| 3|Bradley Beal | 2.0| 2.0| | 2012| 4|Dion Waiters | 1.5| 2.0| | 2012| 5|Thomas Robinson | 1.0| 4.0| | 2012| 6|Damian Lillard | 3.0| 1.5| | 2012| 7|Harrison Barnes | 2.0| 3.5| | 2011| 1|Kyrie Irving | 3.0| 1.0| | 2011| 2|Derrick Williams | 2.0| 4.0| | 2011| 3|Enes Kanter | 1.5| 4.0| | 2011| 4|Tristan Thompson | 2.0| 4.5| | 2011| 5|Jonas Valanciunas | 2.0| 5.0| | 2011| 6|Jan Vesely | 0.0| 4.0| | 2011| 7|Bismack Biyombo | 1.5| 4.5| | 2010| 1|John Wall | 2.5| 1.0| | 2010| 2|Evan Turner | 2.0| 1.0| | 2010| 3|Derrick Favors | 2.0| 4.0| | 2010| 4|Wesley Johnson | 1.0| 3.0| | 2010| 5|DeMarcus Cousins | 2.5| 5.0| | 2010| 6|Ekpe Udoh | 1.0| 4.5| | 2010| 7|Greg Monroe | 2.5| 4.0| | 2009| 1|Blake Griffin | 3.0| 4.0| | 2009| 2|James Harden | 3.0| 2.0| | 2009| 3|Hasheem Thabeet | 0.0| 5.0| | 2009| 4|Wesley Matthews | 2.5| 2.0| | 2009| 5|Ricky Rubio | 2.0| 1.0| | 2009| 6|Jonny Flynn | 1.0| 1.5| | 2009| 7|Stephen Curry | 3.0| 1.5| | 2008| 1|Derrick Rose | 3.0| 1.0| | 2008| 2|Michael Beasley | 1.5| 4.0| | 2008| 3|O.J. Mayo | 2.0| 2.0| | 2008| 4|Russell Westbrook | 3.0| 1.0| | 2008| 5|Kevin Love | 3.0| 4.0| | 2008| 6|Danilo Gallinari | 2.0| 3.5| | 2008| 7|Eric Gordon | 2.5| 2.0|

Code: Select all
|1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 | |:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------| |Pick 1 |Pick 2 |Pick 3 |Pick 4 |Pick 5 |Pick 6 |Pick 7 | |2.333 |1.933 |2.1 |1.833 |1.833 |1.667 |1.933 |

Code: Select all
|1 |2 |3 |4 |5 | |:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----| |PG/CG |CG/SG |SF/PF |PF/C |C | |2.103 |2.062 |1.881 |1.844 |1.714 |

Code: Select all
|FALSE |TRUE | |:-----|:-----| |Not C |Is C | |2.03 |1.652 |

Draft picks in general are ordered correctly except 2nd pick has underproduced (for whatever reason) which we already knew. Centers are bad business to draft. The average C drafted in top 7 is between a role player and a bust. The average not center is a role player.

Guards strictly less risky than wings and less than centers. The smaller the player's position on the court; the less likely he is bust. I have a good potential explanation for this. Smaller players need to be more skilled and have to beat out so many more competitors at every level. The number of ballers (below 2 std above the mean or roughly 6'3" in the US) are immense (exceeding over 95%+ of the US population) whereas if you are above 7 foot, there is a 1 in 6 chance that you will play in the NBA. The skill requirement goes down the bigger you are as a basketball player. Of course we all want 7 foot skilled demons like Durant, Chet, Wemby, but I am pretty damn sure Sarr isn't one of them.

You're a champion, thanks for the effort.

atlantabbq99 · Post #69 » by **atlantabbq99** » Mon May 20, 2024 7:18 am

HadAnEffectHere · Post #70 » by **HadAnEffectHere** » Mon May 20, 2024 12:12 pm

atlantabbq99 wrote:

Edwards was a supremely talented player who was awful at Georgia because his BBIQ was so bad. His BBIQ was so bad because his poor family had been forcing him to play at events with kick backs instead of getting serious coaching at high school. Him being so far behind coaching wise while having a questionable love for basketball made him a hugely risky prospect as he needed to make up for so many lost years.

Sarr, Clingan, and Risacher are the children of professional or high level college basketball players. These guys were focused on making the NBA since they were four years old. They just don't have much offensive talent.

If you're looking for a guy with the background to suddenly blow up and be a superstar, it's probably Yves Missi or Tidjane Salaun, but Salaun lacks the talent to be a superstar and you need to get hugely lucky for Missi to become a superstar.

Post #71 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon May 20, 2024 3:50 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #72 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon May 20, 2024 3:55 pm

Bless you, Cap'n.

CptCrunch wrote:Since I was bored; here is a summary for last 15 years for first 7 picks (top half of lotto).

Spoiler:
Code: Select all
| Year| Pick|Name | Score| Position| |----:|----:|:----------------------|-----:|--------:| | 2022| 1|Paolo Banchero | 3.0| 4.0| | 2022| 2|Chet Holmgren | 2.5| 4.5| | 2022| 3|Jabari Smith Jr. | 2.0| 4.0| | 2022| 4|Keegan Murray | 2.0| 3.5| | 2022| 5|Jaden Ivey | 2.5| 2.0| | 2022| 6|Bennedict Mathurin | 2.0| 2.5| | 2022| 7|Shaedon Sharpe | 2.0| 2.0| | 2021| 1|Cade Cunningham | 2.0| 1.5| | 2021| 2|Jalen Green | 2.0| 2.0| | 2021| 3|Evan Mobley | 2.5| 4.5| | 2021| 4|Scottie Barnes | 2.5| 3.0| | 2021| 5|Jalen Suggs | 1.5| 1.5| | 2021| 6|Josh Giddey | 2.0| 1.0| | 2021| 7|Jonathan Kuminga | 1.5| 3.5| | 2020| 1|Anthony Edwards | 3.0| 2.0| | 2020| 2|James Wiseman | 1.0| 4.5| | 2020| 3|LaMelo Ball | 2.5| 1.0| | 2020| 4|Patrick Williams | 1.5| 3.5| | 2020| 5|Isaac Okoro | 1.5| 2.5| | 2020| 6|Onyeka Okongwu | 2.0| 4.0| | 2020| 7|Killian Hayes | 1.0| 1.5| | 2019| 1|Zion Williamson | 2.5| 3.5| | 2019| 2|Ja Morant | 3.0| 1.0| | 2019| 3|RJ Barrett | 2.0| 3.0| | 2019| 4|DeAndre Hunter | 2.0| 3.5| | 2019| 5|Darius Garland | 2.5| 1.5| | 2019| 6|Jarrett Culver | 1.0| 2.5| | 2019| 7|Coby White | 1.5| 1.5| | 2018| 1|Deandre Ayton | 2.0| 5.0| | 2018| 2|Marvin Bagley III | 1.5| 4.5| | 2018| 3|Luka Doncic | 3.0| 1.5| | 2018| 4|Jaren Jackson Jr. | 2.5| 4.0| | 2018| 5|Trae Young | 2.5| 1.0| | 2018| 6|Mohamed Bamba | 1.5| 5.0| | 2018| 7|Wendell Carter Jr. | 2.0| 4.5| | 2017| 1|Markelle Fultz | 2.0| 1.5| | 2017| 2|Lonzo Ball | 1.5| 1.0| | 2017| 3|Jayson Tatum | 3.0| 3.0| | 2017| 4|Josh Jackson | 1.0| 3.0| | 2017| 5|DeAaron Fox | 2.5| 1.0| | 2017| 6|Jonathan Isaac | 2.0| 3.5| | 2017| 7|Lauri Markkanen | 2.0| 4.0| | 2016| 1|Ben Simmons | 1.5| 1.0| | 2016| 2|Brandon Ingram | 2.5| 3.0| | 2016| 3|Jaylen Brown | 2.5| 3.0| | 2016| 4|Dragan Bender | 0.0| 4.5| | 2016| 5|Kris Dunn | 1.0| 1.5| | 2016| 6|Buddy Hield | 2.0| 2.5| | 2016| 7|Jamal Murray | 2.5| 1.5| | 2015| 1|Karl-Anthony Towns | 2.5| 4.5| | 2015| 2|DAngelo Russell | 2.0| 1.5| | 2015| 3|Jahlil Okafor | 1.5| 4.5| | 2015| 4|Kristaps Porzingis | 2.5| 4.0| | 2015| 5|Mario Hezonja | 1.0| 3.0| | 2015| 6|Willie Cauley-Stein | 1.5| 4.5| | 2015| 7|Emmanuel Mudiay | 1.0| 1.0| | 2014| 1|Andrew Wiggins | 2.0| 3.0| | 2014| 2|Jabari Parker | 1.5| 3.5| | 2014| 3|Joel Embiid | 3.0| 5.0| | 2014| 4|Aaron Gordon | 2.0| 3.5| | 2014| 5|Dante Exum | 1.0| 1.5| | 2014| 6|Marcus Smart | 2.0| 1.5| | 2014| 7|Julius Randle | 2.5| 4.0| | 2013| 1|Anthony Bennett | 0.0| 4.5| | 2013| 2|Victor Oladipo | 2.0| 2.0| | 2013| 3|Otto Porter Jr. | 2.0| 3.5| | 2013| 4|Cody Zeller | 1.5| 4.5| | 2013| 5|Alex Len | 1.0| 5.0| | 2013| 6|Nerlens Noel | 2.0| 4.5| | 2013| 7|Ben McLemore | 1.5| 2.0| | 2012| 1|Anthony Davis | 3.0| 4.5| | 2012| 2|Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 1.0| 3.0| | 2012| 3|Bradley Beal | 2.0| 2.0| | 2012| 4|Dion Waiters | 1.5| 2.0| | 2012| 5|Thomas Robinson | 1.0| 4.0| | 2012| 6|Damian Lillard | 3.0| 1.5| | 2012| 7|Harrison Barnes | 2.0| 3.5| | 2011| 1|Kyrie Irving | 3.0| 1.0| | 2011| 2|Derrick Williams | 2.0| 4.0| | 2011| 3|Enes Kanter | 1.5| 4.0| | 2011| 4|Tristan Thompson | 2.0| 4.5| | 2011| 5|Jonas Valanciunas | 2.0| 5.0| | 2011| 6|Jan Vesely | 0.0| 4.0| | 2011| 7|Bismack Biyombo | 1.5| 4.5| | 2010| 1|John Wall | 2.5| 1.0| | 2010| 2|Evan Turner | 2.0| 1.0| | 2010| 3|Derrick Favors | 2.0| 4.0| | 2010| 4|Wesley Johnson | 1.0| 3.0| | 2010| 5|DeMarcus Cousins | 2.5| 5.0| | 2010| 6|Ekpe Udoh | 1.0| 4.5| | 2010| 7|Greg Monroe | 2.5| 4.0| | 2009| 1|Blake Griffin | 3.0| 4.0| | 2009| 2|James Harden | 3.0| 2.0| | 2009| 3|Hasheem Thabeet | 0.0| 5.0| | 2009| 4|Wesley Matthews | 2.5| 2.0| | 2009| 5|Ricky Rubio | 2.0| 1.0| | 2009| 6|Jonny Flynn | 1.0| 1.5| | 2009| 7|Stephen Curry | 3.0| 1.5| | 2008| 1|Derrick Rose | 3.0| 1.0| | 2008| 2|Michael Beasley | 1.5| 4.0| | 2008| 3|O.J. Mayo | 2.0| 2.0| | 2008| 4|Russell Westbrook | 3.0| 1.0| | 2008| 5|Kevin Love | 3.0| 4.0| | 2008| 6|Danilo Gallinari | 2.0| 3.5| | 2008| 7|Eric Gordon | 2.5| 2.0|

Code: Select all
|1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 | |:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------|:------| |Pick 1 |Pick 2 |Pick 3 |Pick 4 |Pick 5 |Pick 6 |Pick 7 | |2.333 |1.933 |2.1 |1.833 |1.833 |1.667 |1.933 |

Code: Select all
|1 |2 |3 |4 |5 | |:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----|:-----| |PG/CG |CG/SG |SF/PF |PF/C |C | |2.103 |2.062 |1.881 |1.844 |1.714 |

Code: Select all
|FALSE |TRUE | |:-----|:-----| |Not C |Is C | |2.03 |1.652 |
Draft picks in general are ordered correctly except 2nd pick has underproduced (for whatever reason) which we already knew. Centers are bad business to draft. The average C drafted in top 7 is between a role player and a bust. The average not center is a role player.

Guards strictly less risky than wings and less than centers. The smaller the player's position on the court; the less likely he is bust. I have a good potential explanation for this. Smaller players need to be more skilled and have to beat out so many more competitors at every level. The number of ballers (below 2 std above the mean or roughly 6'3" in the US) are immense (exceeding over 95%+ of the US population) whereas if you are above 7 foot, there is a 1 in 6 chance that you will play in the NBA. The skill requirement goes down the bigger you are as a basketball player. Of course we all want 7 foot skilled demons like Durant, Chet, Wemby, but I am pretty damn sure Sarr isn't one of them.

HadAnEffectHere · Post #73 » by **HadAnEffectHere** » Mon May 20, 2024 4:08 pm

I mean, Sarr's interior scoring was really bad because

1. His hands are just OK
2. He was physically weak
3. He's pretty soft
4. He doesn't have much explosion

His stats in the Overtime Elite were way worse than his stats in NBL.

nybluemeadow · Post #74 » by **nybluemeadow** » Sun May 26, 2024 10:56 pm

Watch on YouTube

I've been watching more film on Sarr in Perth. They say that Sarr is a weak prospect but what makes 19yr Sarr any different, better or worst than 19yr Dwight Howard?

MemphisX · Post #75 » by **MemphisX** » Sun May 26, 2024 11:57 pm

nybluemeadow wrote:

Watch on YouTube

I've been watching more film on Sarr in Perth. They say that Sarr is a weak prospect but what makes 19yr Sarr and different, better or worst than 19yr Dwight Howard?

Dwight Howard was a nuclear athlete with a great frame.

nybluemeadow · Post #76 » by **nybluemeadow** » Mon May 27, 2024 12:04 am

MemphisX wrote:
nybluemeadow wrote:

Watch on YouTube

I've been watching more film on Sarr in Perth. They say that Sarr is a weak prospect but what makes 19yr Sarr and different, better or worst than 19yr Dwight Howard?

Dwight Howard was a nuclear athlete with a great frame.

19yr Sarr and 19yr Dwigh,t same weight, same vertical. Sarr is just listed taller than Dwight. Sarr can also hit 70% free throws.

King Ken · Post #77 » by **King Ken** » Mon May 27, 2024 12:12 am

nybluemeadow wrote:
MemphisX wrote:
nybluemeadow wrote:

Watch on YouTube

I've been watching more film on Sarr in Perth. They say that Sarr is a weak prospect but what makes 19yr Sarr and different, better or worst than 19yr Dwight Howard?

Dwight Howard was a nuclear athlete with a great frame.

19yr Sarr and 19yr Dwigh,t same weight, same vertical. Sarr is just listed taller than Dwight. Sarr can also hit 70% free throws.

Come on bro.

Dwight was 240 with broad ass shoulders at 18. Sarr is 224 with narrow ass shoulders at 19. Dwight played like a big and I played against him in AAU. Sarr plays like a big wing and that's what he wants to be as well.

We gotta do better on this site. Too many wild out of pocket opinions with no data behind it when it's readily available

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro?SeasonYear=2004-05&dir=D&sort=WEIGHT

I guarded Dwight, 224 my ass.

King Ken · Post #78 » by **King Ken** » Mon May 27, 2024 12:16 am

HadAnEffectHere wrote:I mean, Sarr's interior scoring was really bad because

1. His hands are just OK
2. He was physically weak
3. He's pretty soft
4. He doesn't have much explosion

His stats in the Overtime Elite were way worse than his stats in NBL.

When I say it, Hawks fans say I am a hater bro.
It's like they want to relive Marvin Williams again

MemphisX · Post #79 » by **MemphisX** » Mon May 27, 2024 11:59 am

King Ken wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:I mean, Sarr's interior scoring was really bad because

1. His hands are just OK
2. He was physically weak
3. He's pretty soft
4. He doesn't have much explosion

His stats in the Overtime Elite were way worse than his stats in NBL.

When I say it, Hawks fans say I am a hater bro.
It's like they want to relive Marvin Williams again

Most folks have not watched full games of Sarr. They see the highlights and think he is something he is not. I would be wary of taking him #1 too, even in this draft.

atlantabbq99 · Post #80 » by **atlantabbq99** » Thu May 30, 2024 1:54 pm

King Ken wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:I mean, Sarr's interior scoring was really bad because

1. His hands are just OK
2. He was physically weak
3. He's pretty soft
4. He doesn't have much explosion

His stats in the Overtime Elite were way worse than his stats in NBL.

When I say it, Hawks fans say I am a hater bro.
It's like they want to relive Marvin Williams again

Marvin was an elite talent, but he just didn't have that dawg in him and was okay to let Joe run the show. Marvin also had that back injury that most people outside of Atlanta don't know about.

Marvin and Bogut were just way too chill, while CP3 just had that chip on his shoulder. Hawks need to find out which prospect has that dawg in them like Anthony Edwards.