JMAC3 wrote:Colbinii wrote:Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...
Yeah, Cameron Johnson would be a poor outcome, but that's a terrible comparison.
1) Jabari Smith Jr moves much more fluid than Cameron Johnson. He is much more spry, quicker, better lateral movement, and a more explosive leaper/jumper. Really their physical profiles aren't comparable in any way, shape, or form.
This alone allows Jabari Smith Jr to reach higher levels of impact due to his defensive versatility.
2) Rebounding
Jabari Smith Jr is proving to be a Top Non-Center rebounder in the NBA. He is doing it on both ends of the court [Offensive and Defensive], while Cameron Johnson's career high numbers [4.3 OREB%/14.0 DREB%] are far below current Jabari Smith Jr.
3) Age
Hello? Cameron Johnson was 23-24 during his rookie season. Jabari Smith Jr is 20-21 during his 2nd season. Jabari Smith Jr will be 23-24 during his 5th season
Okay so you hate the Cam Johnson comp, who had 29 pts on 7/11 from 3 last night.
Who do you expect him to be as good as in 2-3 years? Who is his long-term similar impact guy in the NBA?
Give me some names of guys he will be better than.
Someone who Jabari Smith Jr could be as good as?
To start, I don't put expectations on players. I assess prospects the same way I assess young NBA players, by asking what they do well, what they do poorly, where they can realistically improve and how they can further impact a game in the NBA.
I'll give you an example: I thought Jaden McDaniels had some ridiculously high-end outcomes after his 2nd season [Think Kawhi-Leonard lite]. I never expected Jaden to get to that level, but I could see ways where he blossomed like a flower and reached every 99% outcome. Since then, I don't think those high-end outcomes are possible given his growth/improvement curve. As for my expectations for him as a player? I don't know, I would like to think a Mikal Bridges-type is in the wheel house, but I don't expect him to get to that level but I also wouldn't be surprised if in 2024-2025 Jaden McDaniels was given a larger offensive role and all of the metrics lined up with Mikal Bridges from 2022 [That was his real breakout year, DPOY2, ect].
So, circling back to Jabari Smith Jr, what I am doing in pointing out his Rebounding is pointing to a data point. That data point says "Wow, this player is
really freaking good at this important basketball trait, and the trait specifically goes against what I saw as his skill-set when he entered the NBA". That's good, right? Like, a player who projects to do a lot of + impact things on a court does something else impactful that you didn't even think he would. That makes me change how I feel about a player moving forward, because they are doing positive things on a court I didn't previously project or assess.
This isn't me trying to defend Jabari Smith Jr or compare him to Paolo Banchero. It is me simply looking at a prospect and seeing him do more than I thought he would, which in turn allows me to
change my assessment of him as a player. I have no qualms or issues changing my assessment on a player as they spend time in the NBA as they add more skills or show a lack of another skill holding them back. I don't need to latch onto a prospect and play the game of "Look at me, I am so smart!" or tell other people "I told you Player X would suck, IDIOT!".
To answer your question in multiple answers.
Higher-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Modern-Day Shawn MarionA good offensive player who is more of a play finisher than play initiator. Exceptional defender who can guard multiple positions, fill in at the 5-spot for stretches, defend the best wings in the NBA and help of the offensive/defensive glass.
Marion had a 7-year Prime as an Ironman, missing just 12 games in those 7 years, posting 4.3 BPM, .180 WS/48 and had multiple uber-efficient scoring seasons [Two seasons > +100 TS+] and was a Top 15-ish player for a couple years [Top 15 in MVP twice].
Medium-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Rashard LewisVersatile big who pops offensively and is underrated defensively. Switchable, excellent player in high-level defensive schemes and can play small-ball 5. Good offensive player who can get hot and win a playoff game with his shot. Utilizes his spacing and shooting to attack off the closeout, High-level starter.
Low-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Clifford RobinsonStretch Big who flirts with making All-Defensive teams and/or makes a couple. Very good starter, squeaks in as an All-star in a potential weaker season, weaker DPOY candidate. Offensively, he is a key cog in the machine but not a huge needle mover but can play multiple positions and is extremely portable in terms of fit [5-out, can be the big man down low against smaller line-ups, ect].