Challenge: Convince me Paulo Banchero will be good

[The-Power]

I think the question marks about Banchero continue to be unanswered (unsurprisingly as this is still his Rookie season after all). He has put up a great raw numbers at subpar efficiency and below average defense as far as I can tell. Now the question remains: will his offense develop in a way that makes him an effective first option or rather a secondary or tertiary option? And will he end up being on the right or wrong side of average defensively? We just don't know yet. The high FTr is certainly a great surprise, though. It gives him more leeway to pass the efficiency threshold.

[Jamaaliver]

I watched a handful of his games at Duke and no doubt he's a skilled offensive player, but is he really cut out to be a difference maker in the NBA? It's hard for me to envision him as a competent defender- either he's forced into heavy switching at the 4 or sacrificing rim protection at the 5. I realize that's an oversimplification but I can't envision a scenario where he isn't at least somewhat of a minus on that end of the floor.

Offensively, he has some range but it's not like he projects to be a true floor spacing big. His ball-handling/passing are probably my favorite parts about his game but that can't be the calling card of a #3 pick big man in a deep draft. Good scorer in the post yet that skillset doesn't carry the same weight that it use to.

Naturally, NBA scouts are a lot more qualified than I am to make these assessments. Can you guys help me see what they see?

A year+ later, are you convinced yet?

Read on Twitter

[Hal14]

Is he really 6'10'' though? It appears to me that Franz Wagner looks taller than him, and not by 1 or 2 inches too.

Some Magic fans say Franz is now a legit 6'11

And I say that I'm the easter bunny.

[zimpy27]

I watched a handful of his games at Duke and no doubt he's a skilled offensive player, but is he really cut out to be a difference maker in the NBA? It's hard for me to envision him as a competent defender- either he's forced into heavy switching at the 4 or sacrificing rim protection at the 5. I realize that's an oversimplification but I can't envision a scenario where he isn't at least somewhat of a minus on that end of the floor.

Offensively, he has some range but it's not like he projects to be a true floor spacing big. His ball-handling/passing are probably my favorite parts about his game but that can't be the calling card of a #3 pick big man in a deep draft. Good scorer in the post yet that skillset doesn't carry the same weight that it use to.

Naturally, NBA scouts are a lot more qualified than I am to make these assessments. Can you guys help me see what they see?

A year+ later, are you convinced yet?

Read on Twitter

I think FIBA has been less convincing than end of rookie season. I'm a little lower than I was after end of rookie season having seen him in Team USA games (practice and tournament).

[JT3000]

I watched a handful of his games at Duke and no doubt he's a skilled offensive player, but is he really cut out to be a difference maker in the NBA? It's hard for me to envision him as a competent defender- either he's forced into heavy switching at the 4 or sacrificing rim protection at the 5. I realize that's an oversimplification but I can't envision a scenario where he isn't at least somewhat of a minus on that end of the floor.

Offensively, he has some range but it's not like he projects to be a true floor spacing big. His ball-handling/passing are probably my favorite parts about his game but that can't be the calling card of a #3 pick big man in a deep draft. Good scorer in the post yet that skillset doesn't carry the same weight that it use to.

Naturally, NBA scouts are a lot more qualified than I am to make these assessments. Can you guys help me see what they see?

A year+ later, are you convinced yet?

Read on Twitter

I think FIBA has been less convincing than end of rookie season. I'm a little lower than I was after end of rookie season having seen him in Team USA games (practice and tournament).

He is playing out-of-position.

[zimpy27]

A year+ later, are you convinced yet?

Read on Twitter

I think FIBA has been less convincing than end of rookie season. I'm a little lower than I was after end of rookie season having seen him in Team USA games (practice and tournament).

He is playing out-of-position.

Yes he is

[Jamaaliver]

Every time i see Paolo post some extraordinary stat line, I think back to this thread specifically.

Kid is a beast and the future at PF in the Conference.

Read on Twitter

[EvanZ]

It's interesting to compare his DARKO to Chet. Chet is already close to +3 while Paolo is around -1 and has been steady around that point from the jump. It really could be the case that Paolo is going to make a career of empty stats. I'm not saying that's necessarily what is going on, but it's not like we haven't seen versions of that before.

Right now I'm 100% convinced Chet is the more impactful NBA player night in and night out.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Banchero is one of the best NBA prospects to come out in the last decade. The kind of guy that could be a top 10 player and first or second team all-NBA player once fully developed. Chet is a great #3 and potential #2 but he'll never be a #1. It isn't surprising to me that the usual folks think Chet is better than Banchero. It aligns with their other takes

[clyde21]

It's interesting to compare his DARKO to Chet. Chet is already close to +3 while Paolo is around -1 and has been steady around that point from the jump. It really could be the case that Paolo is going to make a career of empty stats. I'm not saying that's necessarily what is going on, but it's not like we haven't seen versions of that before.

Right now I'm 100% convinced Chet is the more impactful NBA player night in and night out.

pretty obvious Chet is more impactful and it's not all that close.

goes the same for Chet and Jabari too btw, and everyone knows Bari is my boy.

[EvanZ]

Banchero is one of the best NBA prospects to come out in the last decade. The kind of guy that could be a top 10 player and first or second team all-NBA player once fully developed. Chet is a great #3 and potential #2 but he'll never be a #1. It isn't surprising to me that the usual folks think Chet is better than Banchero. It aligns with their other takes

This is exactly the take I would have predicted coming from you.

[Colbinii]

Sometimes a good or great #2 is better than a bad #1. Nobody prefers DeMar DeRozan over Draymond Green.

[FrightCoward]

Sometimes a good or great #2 is better than a bad #1. Nobody prefers DeMar DeRozan over Draymond Green.

The problem is you’re putting caps on players’ ceilings 1.5 seasons into their career, which is a mistake.

[clyde21]

Sometimes a good or great #2 is better than a bad #1. Nobody prefers DeMar DeRozan over Draymond Green.

but it's possible Paolo is the DeMar in this scenario, not Draymond.

[Colbinii]

Sometimes a good or great #2 is better than a bad #1. Nobody prefers DeMar DeRozan over Draymond Green.

The problem is you’re putting caps on players’ ceilings 1.5 seasons into their career, which is a mistake.

But I never did that.

I just gave an example how a #1 isn't always as impactful on winning as a good #2 or even #3.

Manu Ginobili is far more impactful than Allen Iverson.

[basketballRob]

Sometimes a good or great #2 is better than a bad #1. Nobody prefers DeMar DeRozan over Draymond Green.

The problem is you’re putting caps on players’ ceilings 1.5 seasons into their career, which is a mistake.

But I never did that.

I just gave an example how a #1 isn't always as impactful on winning as a good #2 or even #3.

Manu Ginobili is far more impactful than Allen Iverson.

Are we comparing him to other 21.1 year olds? Or are you comparing him to players in their prime? Volume scorers generally take a little longer to develop. He's basically playing like a guard, and if you look at the guards on Orlando's roster, they each made big leaps in their 3rd seasons. If he shoots another 25-50% from the field, suddenly he's averaging near 30 ppg.

Cole's EFG jumped around 50 pts in his 3rd season, and Suggs jumped 70 pts.

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[EMG518]

I think I like Franz more than Paulo. He just needs to improve his 3pt shot and take a larger volume but with the way he shoots ft's, I don't see why he wouldn't

I definitely still like Chet the most from that draft. Still the only concern is injury, always has been.

[Colbinii]

The problem is you’re putting caps on players’ ceilings 1.5 seasons into their career, which is a mistake.

But I never did that.

I just gave an example how a #1 isn't always as impactful on winning as a good #2 or even #3.

Manu Ginobili is far more impactful than Allen Iverson.

Are we comparing him to other 21.1 year olds? Or are you comparing him to players in their prime? Volume scorers generally take a little longer to develop. He's basically playing like a guard, and if you look at the guards on Orlando's roster, they each made big leaps in their 3rd seasons. If he shoots another 25-50% from the field, suddenly he's averaging near 30 ppg.

Cole's EFG jumped around 50 pts in his 3rd season, and Suggs jumped 70 pts.

I'm not comparing Paolo to anyone. I am just saying a 1st Option isn't always more valuable than a good 2nd or 3rd option.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

So this season Paolo basicly had his 3pt% tick up a bit and is averaging a few more assists, and basicly nothing else has changed from a statistic season to season POV. Is this worthy of lap taking or nah? I'd actually have expected more from standard progression. His FT/2pt attempt ratio has actually taken a hit year to year as well, though it was pretty good as a rook.

5 plus assists for a 250 pound 21 year is pretty interesting, though I'm not sure that's really what people even expected for banchero's supporters coming into the league.