Kyle Filipowski

[Hal14]

Ok, let's get him his own thread.

Good interview here.

Watch on YouTube

In case you don't want to watch the whole thing, the cliff notes version is:
-Had double hip surgery in late March
-Recovery time is 6 months, so he is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the season
-Had the hip issues dating back to summer of 2022 (and even a little bit in HS) so the hip issues definitely held him back last season and caused him to be less effective than he could have been
-He anticipates this season that with the hips at 100%, he'll be much more effective at defending people out on the perimeter, he'll be more explosive, a better rim protector and more agile on both ends
-They didn't call out his 3 pt % that I noticed, but I would think this season, now that he's healthy, we'll see the 3 pt % jump quite a bit compared to last season as well.

Long story short, he already was going to make a big sophomore leap. Now that we know he would have been much better last season if he was healthy and that this season he will be healthy, he should be in store for a really big sophomore leap.

I don't want to get too excited until we actually see him return to game action and see how he looks in games post-surgery, but I've got him ranked 11 on my big board as of now - and he could certainly move up even higher than that once we see him on the court in game action and we see how he looks post-surgery...

[clyde21]

hip situation is something to keep an eye on, he might be 100% post surgery but these things can come back easy and get even worse

[Duke4life831]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

[BlazersBroncos]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

Ya, I think he is a backup C at the next level - a useful guy that can spread the floor and gives good effort otherwise but just not enough otherwise to be penciled in as a starter. Kelly O w/o the passing level guy IMO. Which is a great, upper tier backup C and likely worth a late FRP but not a starter level guy IMO.

[Duke4life831]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

Ya, I think he is a backup C at the next level - a useful guy that can spread the floor and gives good effort otherwise but just not enough otherwise to be penciled in as a starter. Kelly O w/o the passing level guy IMO. Which is a great, upper tier backup C and likely worth a late FRP but not a starter level guy IMO.

Yup this is how I see him as well. If he cant improve his rim protection or his passing by a good amount, I also think he is a backup big. And ya someone I could see going in the 20s. Either that or a team might think he has the mobility to play the 4, which I dont think he has at the NBA level.

[Hal14]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

Obviously you want to actually see him prove it on the court, but if you watch the video in the original post of this thread, he specifically mentions rim protection as a key area he us focused on improving this upcoming season and he says that now that he won't be playing with hip pain/stiffness he expects to now play with more explosiveness, agility and to be a more effective rim protector.

Now that he'll be playing without the pain/stiffness in his hips, he could also improve his 3 pt %. He also talks in the video about being able to now get down lower in his defensive stance and be more effective defending in space out on the perimeter.

As for his offense being more on the potential side than actual production, idk about that. He averaged 15 PPG and was the go-to scorer for one of the best teams in the country, as a freshman in the ACC.

He didn't shoot a high % from 3 but at least his 3Pr wasn't *that* high (so he wasn't hurting the team as much by taking a high volume of 3's at a low %). Also, his FTr was very high. So he was still effective attacking the basket, getting to the line, scoring on put-backs, etc.

Filipowski's freshman season is actually in pretty good company production-wise. Let's have a look at the list of players who have met these thresholds:



And again, Filipowski put up these numbers, while playing with TWO injured hips. He had surgery on them in late March (after the loss to Tennessee) and is expected to be fully recovered by the start of the season.

Lastly, as far as his passing. I actually thought his passing was pretty good. Lots of solid passes to set up Lively for dunks or find the open shooter. He obviously wasn't an elite passer, but it's very rare for a big man in a high major conference to be an elite passer as a freshman. Elite passing for a big in a high major conference is typically something that we see developed later on during their college years - or once they get to the NBA.

These are the only high major bigs who had 11% assist rate as a freshman (while also meeting a couple other basic thresholds)

[Duke4life831]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

Obviously you want to actually see him prove it on the court, but if you watch the video in the original post of this thread, he specifically mentions rim protection as a key area he us focused on improving this upcoming season and he says that now that he won't be playing with hip pain/stiffness he expects to now play with more explosiveness, agility and to be a more effective rim protector.

Now that he'll be playing without the pain/stiffness in his hips, he could also improve his 3 pt %. He also talks in the video about being able to now get down lower in his defensive stance and be more effective defending in space out on the perimeter.

As for his offense being more on the potential side than actual production, idk about that. He averaged 15 PPG and was the go-to scorer for one of the best teams in the country, as a freshman in the ACC.

He didn't shoot a high % from 3 but at least his 3Pr wasn't *that* high (so he wasn't hurting the team as much by taking a high volume of 3's at a low %). Also, his FTr was very high. So he was still effective attacking the basket, getting to the line, scoring on put-backs, etc.

Filipowski's freshman season is actually in pretty good company production-wise. Let's have a look at the list of players who have met these thresholds:



And again, Filipowski put up these numbers, while playing with TWO injured hips. He had surgery on them in March and is expected to be fully recovered by the start of the season.

Lastly, as far as his passing. I actually thought his passing was pretty good. Lots of solid passes to set up Lively for dunks or find the open shooter. He obviously wasn't an elite passer, but it's very rare for a big man in a high major conference to be an elite passer as a freshman. Elite passing for a big in a high major conference is typically something that we see developed later on during their college years - or once they get to the NBA.

These are the only high major bigs who had 11% assist rate as a freshman (while also meeting a couple other basic thresholds)

Ya Ive watched the video and Ive watched his podcast episode with Ryan Kelly as well where he talks about this stuff. Thats just talk to me, Ill believe he looks drastically better with his agility when I see it. Ive just seen enough summer interviews with players talking about drastic changes to their game or their body and come next season everything looks the same.

He put up 15ppg on bad efficiency. In conference play he only had a 51 TS%, he turned it over 3 times per game to only 1.5 assists. And he the fact that he was the go to scorer for Duke last year was one of the reasons Duke had such a bad offense last year.

And ya he made solid passes, but if he isnt going to be a rim protector, just making solid passes isnt going to be enough on the offensive end.

I also want to be clear, I love Flip at Duke. He was by far my favorite player to watch last year and Im ecstatic that he is back for another year. But strictly speaking from a NBA prospect perspective. As a 7 footer he was an inefficient scorer, hasnt shown any ability to protect the rim, 2:1 turnover to assist ratio, doesnt have the agility and athleticism to play the 4 in the NBA. What is the selling point for him to be a lotto pick? He is a good rebounder. And ya I do think eventually his efficiency scoring the ball will be good. Which is why I can see him being a late 1st round pick. But he is either going to have to show he can be a true offensive hub or be at least a solid rim protector. He hasnt shown any signs of those two things yet, not even the potential of them.

[EvanZ]

Double hip surgery?! Had not heard that. Yikes.

[Hal14]

I still have the same issues with Flip when it comes to the NBA that I had for the majority of last season. He is a strict 5 that provides no rim protection, his offensive skill set is still more on the potential side than actual production.

There are 3 big things Im looking to see from Flip this year.

1. Can he show any kind of solid rim protection
2. Can he show big improvement in his scoring efficiency
3. Can he show any significant leap in his passing

#1 or #3 are the big things with me on if he can become a lotto pick. In today's NBA I want my 5 to be able to protect the rim and if he cant do that, he better be a true offensive hub on the offensive end (Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun).

Obviously you want to actually see him prove it on the court, but if you watch the video in the original post of this thread, he specifically mentions rim protection as a key area he us focused on improving this upcoming season and he says that now that he won't be playing with hip pain/stiffness he expects to now play with more explosiveness, agility and to be a more effective rim protector.

Now that he'll be playing without the pain/stiffness in his hips, he could also improve his 3 pt %. He also talks in the video about being able to now get down lower in his defensive stance and be more effective defending in space out on the perimeter.

As for his offense being more on the potential side than actual production, idk about that. He averaged 15 PPG and was the go-to scorer for one of the best teams in the country, as a freshman in the ACC.

He didn't shoot a high % from 3 but at least his 3Pr wasn't *that* high (so he wasn't hurting the team as much by taking a high volume of 3's at a low %). Also, his FTr was very high. So he was still effective attacking the basket, getting to the line, scoring on put-backs, etc.

Filipowski's freshman season is actually in pretty good company production-wise. Let's have a look at the list of players who have met these thresholds:



And again, Filipowski put up these numbers, while playing with TWO injured hips. He had surgery on them in March and is expected to be fully recovered by the start of the season.

Lastly, as far as his passing. I actually thought his passing was pretty good. Lots of solid passes to set up Lively for dunks or find the open shooter. He obviously wasn't an elite passer, but it's very rare for a big man in a high major conference to be an elite passer as a freshman. Elite passing for a big in a high major conference is typically something that we see developed later on during their college years - or once they get to the NBA.

These are the only high major bigs who had 11% assist rate as a freshman (while also meeting a couple other basic thresholds)

As a 7 footer he was an inefficient scorer

What 7-footer who has to create such a high % of their own shots and be the go-to scorer on their team has been an efficient scorer as a freshman in a high major conference?

I'll attempt to answer that question. 1. There's only been 1 other big 6'11" or taller, freshman in a high major conference who had to carry such an offensive load (attempting both 3's and 2's) and still manage to have an offensive and defensive BPM of 2.5 or higher:



Posting raw TS% and assist to turnover numbers is basically meaningless without context.

Duke only had 1 guy who could shoot the ball and he was injured all last season (Dariq) so of course Flip's assist numbers might be a little low. I already showed a screen shot that shows that he actually stacks up pretty good historically with other freshman bigs in terms of his assist %.

And his turnover % is naturally going to be a bit high when you're asking a 7 footer to handle the ball out on the perimeter so much and create so much offense on his own, while playing as a freshman in the ACC. And when the team has poor spacing, due to no shooters except for Dariq who was injured.

Lastly, you seem pretty hung up on the rim protection. Again, context is key! Looking at raw stats is meaningless without context. Of course his blocks % is going to be a little bit low - you do realize he was playing alongside one of the best rim protecting freshmen we have seen in the past 20 years? Lively. Of course the blocks % might look a little low when you're playing next to a guy like Lively who can block every shot. Given that context (and the context that Flip was only a freshman, and he was playing with 2 injured hips) I think a 2.7% blocks rate is actually pretty good.

I think the bottom line is you seem really pessimistic when it comes to the whole hip surgery thing - and I'm more optimistic with it. This isn't just some interview where a guy said he's been working on his jump shot or has maybe made some changes to his body or something.

-Flip got double hip surgery towards end of March, after the Tennessee game
-He played through the injury all of last season (he says that in the interview. You think he was lying? Why would he lie about something like that? Makes no sense)
-He's expected to make a full recovery and be at 100% for the start of the season

Those are facts. This isn't some rumor. It's not some guy in an interview just spouting off nonsense. They're facts. Unless you think Flip was just lying through his teeth for that entire interview.

Watching film last season, clearly he had some issues with hip mobility/flexibility and being able to quickly change directions and slide laterally to defend players out on the perimeter. That was an issue. Common sense tells us that if he makes a full recovery from this surgery, he'll be better in that area.

Common sense also tells us that he certain could improve his explosiveness, rim protection and shooting efficiency now that he will no longer be playing through an injury that was so serious that he needed surgery to repair it. Common sense also tells us that his blocks % will likely be higher since Lively is gone now and there's no one else on the team who is a very good rim protector so naturally his role will be to do more of that now..

[ItsDanger]

The hip surgery explains why he played so stiff on the court. But, as a team drafting him, I would be concerned with a young tall guy getting double hip procedure. Red flag for issues down the road.

[Duke4life831]

Obviously you want to actually see him prove it on the court, but if you watch the video in the original post of this thread, he specifically mentions rim protection as a key area he us focused on improving this upcoming season and he says that now that he won't be playing with hip pain/stiffness he expects to now play with more explosiveness, agility and to be a more effective rim protector.

Now that he'll be playing without the pain/stiffness in his hips, he could also improve his 3 pt %. He also talks in the video about being able to now get down lower in his defensive stance and be more effective defending in space out on the perimeter.

As for his offense being more on the potential side than actual production, idk about that. He averaged 15 PPG and was the go-to scorer for one of the best teams in the country, as a freshman in the ACC.

He didn't shoot a high % from 3 but at least his 3Pr wasn't *that* high (so he wasn't hurting the team as much by taking a high volume of 3's at a low %). Also, his FTr was very high. So he was still effective attacking the basket, getting to the line, scoring on put-backs, etc.

Filipowski's freshman season is actually in pretty good company production-wise. Let's have a look at the list of players who have met these thresholds:



And again, Filipowski put up these numbers, while playing with TWO injured hips. He had surgery on them in March and is expected to be fully recovered by the start of the season.

Lastly, as far as his passing. I actually thought his passing was pretty good. Lots of solid passes to set up Lively for dunks or find the open shooter. He obviously wasn't an elite passer, but it's very rare for a big man in a high major conference to be an elite passer as a freshman. Elite passing for a big in a high major conference is typically something that we see developed later on during their college years - or once they get to the NBA.

These are the only high major bigs who had 11% assist rate as a freshman (while also meeting a couple other basic thresholds)

As a 7 footer he was an inefficient scorer

What 7-footer who has to create such a high % of their own shots and be the go-to scorer on their team has been an efficient scorer as a freshman in a high major conference?

I'll attempt to answer that question. 1. There's only been 1 other big 6'11" or taller, freshman in a high major conference who had to carry such an offensive load (attempting both 3's and 2's) and still manage to have an offensive and defensive BPM of 2.5 or higher:



Posting raw TS% and assist to turnover numbers is basically meaningless without context.

Duke only had 1 guy who could shoot the ball and he was injured all last season (Dariq) so of course Flip's assist numbers might be a little low. I already showed a screen shot that shows that he actually stacks up pretty good historically with other freshman bigs in terms of his assist %.

And his turnover % is naturally going to be a bit high when you're asking a 7 footer to handle the ball out on the perimeter so much and create so much offense on his own, while playing as a freshman in the ACC. And when the team has poor spacing, due to no shooters except for Dariq who was injured.

Lastly, you seem pretty hung up on the rim protection. Again, context is key! Looking at raw stats is meaningless without context. Of course his blocks % is going to be a little bit low - you do realize he was playing alongside one of the best rim protecting freshmen we have seen in the past 20 years? Lively. Of course the blocks % might look a little low when you're playing next to a guy like Lively who can block every shot. Given that context (and the context that Flip was only a freshman, and he was playing with 2 injured hips) I think a 2.7% blocks rate is actually pretty good.

I think the bottom line is you seem really pessimistic when it comes to the whole hip surgery thing - and I'm more optimistic with it. This isn't just some interview where a guy said he's been working on his jump shot or has maybe made some changes to his body or something.

-Flip got double hip surgery towards end of March, after the Tennessee game
-He played through the injury all of last season (he says that in the interview. You think he was lying? Why would he lie about something like that? Makes no sense)
-He's expected to make a full recovery and be at 100% for the start of the season

Those are facts. This isn't some rumor. It's not some guy in an interview just spouting off nonsense. They're facts. Unless you think Flip was just lying through his teeth for that entire interview.

Watching film last season, clearly he had some issues with hip mobility/flexibility and being able to quickly change directions and slide laterally to defend players out on the perimeter. That was an issue. Common sense tells us that if he makes a full recovery from this surgery, he'll be better in that area.

Common sense also tells us that he certain could improve his explosiveness, rim protection and shooting efficiency now that he will no longer be playing through an injury that was so serious that he needed surgery to repair it. Common sense also tells us that his blocks % will likely be higher since Lively is gone now and there's no one else on the team who is a very good rim protector so naturally his role will be to do more of that now..

Ya Im not optimistic about a 20 year old having to have double hip surgeries.

Here is what I know from watching him all last season. Even during the first half of the year when Lively was only playing about 15mpg and Flip was playing heavy minutes alongside Ryan Young, Flip still wasnt any kind of a rim protector. In high school one of his biggest flaws was his lack of rim protection. I also saw him only hit 28% of his 3s, 91% of them were assisted on and most were wide open. I also saw him only shoot 57% at the rim and 50% of those were assisted on, so its not like the only reason his efficiency was so low was because he was constantly forced to create his own shot over and over again. He just didnt make his shots at a good rate. And a ton of his turnovers came from him doing unnecessary stuff out on the perimeter.

Again I like Flip a lot, especially at the college level. But when youre talking about what teams are going to be looking for from a 5 man in the lotto. The fact that he has never been a rim protector at any level, the fact that he wasnt efficient with his scoring or his playmaking. And its not like he is some raw athletic freak either. Again there are foundations with his game I like. He is a good rebounder, he is a solid passer for a big, the form on his jumper is good and he was a solid FT shooter as well. I do think he will make progressions in these areas and that is why I think he will be a late 1st round pick. But we're talking major progressions in areas that is needed to be a lotto guy and ya I dont think double hip surgery at this age is a positive.

[Hal14]

As a 7 footer he was an inefficient scorer

What 7-footer who has to create such a high % of their own shots and be the go-to scorer on their team has been an efficient scorer as a freshman in a high major conference?

I'll attempt to answer that question. 1. There's only been 1 other big 6'11" or taller, freshman in a high major conference who had to carry such an offensive load (attempting both 3's and 2's) and still manage to have an offensive and defensive BPM of 2.5 or higher:



Posting raw TS% and assist to turnover numbers is basically meaningless without context.

Duke only had 1 guy who could shoot the ball and he was injured all last season (Dariq) so of course Flip's assist numbers might be a little low. I already showed a screen shot that shows that he actually stacks up pretty good historically with other freshman bigs in terms of his assist %.

And his turnover % is naturally going to be a bit high when you're asking a 7 footer to handle the ball out on the perimeter so much and create so much offense on his own, while playing as a freshman in the ACC. And when the team has poor spacing, due to no shooters except for Dariq who was injured.

Also, you seem pretty hung up on the rim protection. Again, context is key! Looking at raw stats is meaningless without context. Of course his blocks % is going to be a little bit low - you do realize he was playing alongside one of the best rim protecting freshmen we have seen in the past 20 years? Lively. Of course the blocks % might look a little low when you're playing next to a guy like Lively who can block every shot. Given that context (and the context that Flip was only a freshman, and he was playing with 2 injured hips) I think a 2.7% blocks rate is actually pretty good.

I think the bottom line is you seem really pessimistic when it comes to the whole hip surgery thing - and I'm more optimistic with it. This isn't just some interview where a guy said he's been working on his jump shot or has maybe made some changes to his body or something.

-Flip got double hip surgery towards end of March, after the Tennessee game
-He played through the injury all of last season (he says that in the interview. You think he was lying? Why would he lie about something like that? Makes no sense)
-He's expected to make a full recovery and be at 100% for the start of the season

Those are facts. This isn't some rumor. It's not some guy in an interview just spouting off nonsense. They're facts. Unless you think Flip was just lying through his teeth for that entire interview.

Watching film last season, clearly he had some issues with hip mobility/flexibility and being able to quickly change directions and slide laterally to defend players out on the perimeter. That was an issue. Common sense tells us that if he makes a full recovery from this surgery, he'll be better in that area.

Common sense also tells us that he certain could improve his explosiveness, rim protection and shooting efficiency now that he will no longer be playing through an injury that was so serious that he needed surgery to repair it. Common sense also tells us that his blocks % will likely be higher since Lively is gone now and there's no one else on the team who is a very good rim protector so naturally his role will be to do more of that now..

I do think he will make progressions in these areas and that is why I think he will be a late 1st round pick. But we're talking major progressions in areas that is needed to be a lotto guy and ya I dont think double hip surgery at this age is a positive.

Well, he was projected to go 17th prior to announcing that he was returning to Duke:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10068651-2023-nba-mock-draft-predictions-entering-ncaa-tournament

So if you factor in progression in the areas that you mentioned and also factor in that this is a weaker draft class in the top 15-20 picks, I feel pretty comfortable with him as a late lottery guy at this point.

I mean, I don't even know if there's 8 guys I would put clearly over Flip at this point. Even the guys I have ranked in the 2 through 8 range have some major question marks and some uncertainty around how they will scale up this season vs tough competition. Guys like Collier, Wagner, Edwards, Holland, Almansa - how will they play this season vs competition that is much better than any comp they have faced before? What will their role be this season on their team and how will that impact their draft position? We have less of those concerns with Flip and there aren't exactly a bunch of other returners in this draft class that scream lotto pick either..

Watch on YouTube

Also, I don't really want to pigeon-hole him into being just a 5 at this point. He was used at the 4 a lot last season (when he was on the floor with Lively. And even when he was on the floor with Ryan Young, I think Young was the 5 and Flip was the 4).

Kelly Olynyk is possibly the closest comp for Flip..and I feel like Olynyk (at least during the past few seasons) has been pretty much split between mins at the 4 and mins at the 5. Last season in Utah he was mostly a 4.

I look at a guy like Horford. He has played a lot at the 4 over the past 4 years or so. I think it's certainly possible that Flip could end up having comparable mobility/athleticism to late career Horford. Both of them can shoot. Horford is a better, more switchable defender, but Flip is better at facing up and attacking off the dribble from the perimeter. I'm not comparing them as players here - just comparing them in terms of ability to play the 4 at the NBA level.

Another guy is Bobby Portis. He is more of a 4 who can sometimes play the 5. Can shoot it pretty good. Is a decent (but not great) rim protector. I could see Flip getting to the point where he has comparable mobility to him.

Markannen is more of a 4, sometimes even plays the 3. Occasionally plays the 5 but certainly nobody pigeon-holes Markannen into being just a 5. On the surface, Markannen and Flip seem pretty similar. Not great defensively but impressive ball skills at a young age for a 7-footer. At the moment, the comp seems like a reach, but if the mobility gets better for Flip post-surgery and the shooting efficiency improves (could certainly happen after the surgery. It's not a reach to say he probably would have shot a higher $ last season if he was healthy), the comp will seem pretty accurate and he could end up a lock to go in the top 10 - especially in a weaker draft class.

You certainly don't have to look far to find content that compares Flip to Markannen:
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/an-nba-breakout-that-may-propel-kyle

Watch on YouTube

[clyde21]

so if change one of those variables from 73% FT to 74% FT he'd drop off the list?

hilariously arbitrary

[Hal14]

so if change one of those variables from 73% FT to 74% FT he'd drop off the list?

hilariously arbitrary

No. He wouldn't drop off the list if you had to shoot 74% FT to qualify.

He shot 76.5% FT last season.

[Duke4life831]

What 7-footer who has to create such a high % of their own shots and be the go-to scorer on their team has been an efficient scorer as a freshman in a high major conference?

I'll attempt to answer that question. 1. There's only been 1 other big 6'11" or taller, freshman in a high major conference who had to carry such an offensive load (attempting both 3's and 2's) and still manage to have an offensive and defensive BPM of 2.5 or higher:



Posting raw TS% and assist to turnover numbers is basically meaningless without context.

Duke only had 1 guy who could shoot the ball and he was injured all last season (Dariq) so of course Flip's assist numbers might be a little low. I already showed a screen shot that shows that he actually stacks up pretty good historically with other freshman bigs in terms of his assist %.

And his turnover % is naturally going to be a bit high when you're asking a 7 footer to handle the ball out on the perimeter so much and create so much offense on his own, while playing as a freshman in the ACC. And when the team has poor spacing, due to no shooters except for Dariq who was injured.

Lastly, you seem pretty hung up on the rim protection. Again, context is key! Looking at raw stats is meaningless without context. Of course his blocks % is going to be a little bit low - you do realize he was playing alongside one of the best rim protecting freshmen we have seen in the past 20 years? Lively. Of course the blocks % might look a little low when you're playing next to a guy like Lively who can block every shot. Given that context (and the context that Flip was only a freshman, and he was playing with 2 injured hips) I think a 2.7% blocks rate is actually pretty good.

I think the bottom line is you seem really pessimistic when it comes to the whole hip surgery thing - and I'm more optimistic with it. This isn't just some interview where a guy said he's been working on his jump shot or has maybe made some changes to his body or something.

-Flip got double hip surgery towards end of March, after the Tennessee game
-He played through the injury all of last season (he says that in the interview. You think he was lying? Why would he lie about something like that? Makes no sense)
-He's expected to make a full recovery and be at 100% for the start of the season

Those are facts. This isn't some rumor. It's not some guy in an interview just spouting off nonsense. They're facts. Unless you think Flip was just lying through his teeth for that entire interview.

Watching film last season, clearly he had some issues with hip mobility/flexibility and being able to quickly change directions and slide laterally to defend players out on the perimeter. That was an issue. Common sense tells us that if he makes a full recovery from this surgery, he'll be better in that area.

Common sense also tells us that he certain could improve his explosiveness, rim protection and shooting efficiency now that he will no longer be playing through an injury that was so serious that he needed surgery to repair it. Common sense also tells us that his blocks % will likely be higher since Lively is gone now and there's no one else on the team who is a very good rim protector so naturally his role will be to do more of that now..

I do think he will make progressions in these areas and that is why I think he will be a late 1st round pick. But we're talking major progressions in areas that is needed to be a lotto guy and ya I dont think double hip surgery at this age is a positive.

Well, he was projected to go 17th prior to announcing that he was returning to Duke:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10068651-2023-nba-mock-draft-predictions-entering-ncaa-tournament

So if you factor in progression in the areas that you mentioned and also factor in that this is a weaker draft class in the top 15-20 picks, I feel pretty comfortable with him as a late lottery guy at this point.

I mean, I don't even know if there's 8 guys I would put clearly over Flip at this point. Even the guys I have ranked in the 2 through 8 range have some major question marks and some uncertainty around how they will scale up this season vs tough competition. Guys like Collier, Wagner, Edwards, Holland, Almansa - how will they play this season vs competition that is much better than any comp they have faced before? What will their role be this season on their team and how will that impact their draft position? We have less of those concerns with Flip and there aren't exactly a bunch of other returners in this draft class that scream lotto pick either..

Watch on YouTube

That is a mock draft before the combine, hell it was before March Madness. Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, and Nick Smith are all top 10 in that mock draft. Cam and Nick Smith ended up going in the 20s. And just a quick look at the guys predicted right after Flip

18. Colby Jones: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
19. Rayan Rupert: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
20. Brice Sensabaugh: Ended up drafted 28th
21. GG: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round

So those mock drafts really mean nothing on where Flip may have been taken in this past draft.

And to be clear, I got no issue that you have Flip high. Again for me I view him locked in at the 5 spot and he has never shown to be a rim protector. What non rim protecting 5s are starters in today's NBA? They tend to be offensive hubs like Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun. And Flip didnt show that kind of versatility or efficiency last year. And no way Im thinking about using a lotto pick on him if he doesnt show either of those things.

[clyde21]

so if change one of those variables from 73% FT to 74% FT he'd drop off the list?

hilariously arbitrary

No. He wouldn't drop off the list if you had to shoot 74% FT to qualify.

He shot 76.5% FT last season.

it's just random and artibrarily thresholds across the board.

[Hal14]

so if change one of those variables from 73% FT to 74% FT he'd drop off the list?

hilariously arbitrary

No. He wouldn't drop off the list if you had to shoot 74% FT to qualify.

He shot 76.5% FT last season.

it's just random and artibrarily thresholds across the board.

It's not random. It's showing the only bigs 6'10" or taller in the past 15-ish years who carried a really heavy offensive load, displayed a decent amount of offensive versatility and showed decent shooting touch as freshmen playing in a high major conference.

They're guys whose stat profiles were pretty similar to Filipowski when each player was a freshman..

Pretty good hit rate with this group..

[Hal14]

I do think he will make progressions in these areas and that is why I think he will be a late 1st round pick. But we're talking major progressions in areas that is needed to be a lotto guy and ya I dont think double hip surgery at this age is a positive.

Well, he was projected to go 17th prior to announcing that he was returning to Duke:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10068651-2023-nba-mock-draft-predictions-entering-ncaa-tournament

So if you factor in progression in the areas that you mentioned and also factor in that this is a weaker draft class in the top 15-20 picks, I feel pretty comfortable with him as a late lottery guy at this point.

I mean, I don't even know if there's 8 guys I would put clearly over Flip at this point. Even the guys I have ranked in the 2 through 8 range have some major question marks and some uncertainty around how they will scale up this season vs tough competition. Guys like Collier, Wagner, Edwards, Holland, Almansa - how will they play this season vs competition that is much better than any comp they have faced before? What will their role be this season on their team and how will that impact their draft position? We have less of those concerns with Flip and there aren't exactly a bunch of other returners in this draft class that scream lotto pick either..

Watch on YouTube

That is a mock draft before the combine, hell it was before March Madness. Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, and Nick Smith are all top 10 in that mock draft. Cam and Nick Smith ended up going in the 20s. And just a quick look at the guys predicted right after Flip

18. Colby Jones: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
19. Rayan Rupert: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
20. Brice Sensabaugh: Ended up drafted 28th
21. GG: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round

So those mock drafts really mean nothing on where Flip may have been taken in this past draft.

And to be clear, I got no issue that you have Flip high. Again for me I view him locked in at the 5 spot and he has never shown to be a rim protector. What non rim protecting 5s are starters in today's NBA? They tend to be offensive hubs like Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun. And Flip didnt show that kind of versatility or efficiency last year. And no way Im thinking about using a lotto pick on him if he doesnt show either of those things.

What's your point? The NBA draft is unpredictable. You could look at a mock from the day before the draft and no one had Josh Primo going 12 overall, just like no one had Sharife Cooper going in the 2nd round.

Most mocks right up until the draft had Gradey Dick going top 10. Every mock under the sun right up until the draft had Cam Whitmore going top 10. Most mock right up until the draft had Nick Smith going top 15.

Colby went 2nd round but was considered a steal in the 2nd round - many people saw him as a 1st round pick.

Wow, an 8 spot difference for Brice, no way! That's nothing. There's basically no difference between the 20th pick and 28th. And there were mocks right before the draft that had Brice going in the teens.

There's always exceptions. And some guys draft stock can change a little bit as you get closer to the draft. But the bottom line is, Flip was projected 17th before he announced he was returning to school.

Also, we seem to be talking in circles here because a few posts ago I just wrote in depth on why I wouldn't pigeon-hole Flip into being just a 5 at the next level and how he could certainly end up being a guy who can slide between the 4 and the 5 (that type of versatility would give him even more value) yet you continue to go on about how he's just a 5.

Your criteria for a 5 that they need to be either a rim protector or an "offensive hub" seems odd. I wouldn't really consider Kevon Looney or Dwight Powell to be either of those things. Or Al Horford. Yet all 3 have been starting C on teams that made deep playoff runs. Again, the guy who is maybe the closest comp for Flip (Olynyk) plays quite a bit at the 4 and isn't much of a rim protector either. I'm pretty sure that the career he has had, he has definitely returned lottery pick value.

Sabonis? Have you seen his assist numbers or shooting numbers at Gonzaga? He was definitely not someone that was seen as an "offensive hub" at the time. Only a 7% assist rate as a freshman (Flip had 11% as a freshman while playing a tougher schedule) and only an 11% assist rate as a sophomore. Didn't shoot any 3's as a freshman and attempted less than 1 three a game as a sophomore. Is it really that farfetched for Filipowski to develop into a slightly worse passing but better shooting version of Sabonis?

Is a slightly worse passing but better shooting version of Sabonis, simply Nikola Vucevic? Is there any reason why Filipowski can't be a Vucevic type of guy in the NBA? Even if Flip ends up being like Olynyk, but with better handles, is that not worth a lottery pick in a draft class that's weak at the top?

Sengun? He wasn't really considered an offensive hub as a prospect. He was a below average shooter who showed some shooting flashes, decent passing, who had really good post moves. But the question was, how would he translate to the NBA where low post scoring was becoming less and less valuable? Even if Flip doesn't end up being quite as good a passer as Sengun, but he ends up being a better shooter and taller. Is that not worth a lottery pick? Sengun is certainly on track to return lottery value..

Jokic was also not considered an offensive hub when he was drafted. Like Flip, he showed some pretty passing flashes before he was drafted but that's about it. So marking Flip down as a prospect and saying that he's not an offensive hub like Jokic, Sengun or Sabonis - yet Sengun/sabonis/jokic weren't even offensive hubs before they were drafted seems odd. And we still have an entire season left to play before the 2024 draft, so Flip could certainly develop more and showcase more of that offensive hub stuff this season - especially not that he'll be healthy and won't playing with 2 injured hips.

Wendell Carter Jr hasn't been that good in terms of rim protection in the NBA. And I don't think anyone would call him an offensive hub. Yet he's a solid NBA starting big man. Is it really that farfetched for Filipowski to end up being a taller WCJ with better handles and perhaps slightly better shooting?

Lastly, we need to also remember that with all of these evaluations, the draft is still a YEAR away. So it doesn't really make sense to look at what a player is TODAY (or even worse, look at what he did last season) and just assume that is the player he will be on draft night and those are his stats on draft night 2024. This far from the draft, there needs to be a level of projection, where we are projecting what might or what probably will happen this upcoming season to alter that prospect' draft position. That's obviously tricky to do, but it's the reality of the situation. The way mock drafts and big boards look today, is VERY different than the way they will look in March, or in June. The reason why I say this is for 2 reasons:

1) Again, there needs to be a level of projection, where we are projecting what might or what probably will happen this upcoming season to alter that prospect' draft position. it doesn't really make sense to look at what a player is TODAY (or even worse, look at what he did last season) and just assume that is the player he will be on draft night and those are his stats on draft night 2024.

2) When it's this far away from the draft, we need to be very careful when making such conclusive statements like "oh, this guy is a late 1st round pick" or "this guy is a 5, and there's no way he could ever play the 4" or "I need a 5 to do x or Y and if he can't do either, then he can never be a starter in the NBA". Like, woah, pump the brakes here - take it easy. There's an entire season that hasn't even starter yet that needs to happen before the draft! We also have to be careful with statements like "his assist to turnover ratio is this" or "his TS% is that". Like um, that was last season. There's another entire season that hasn't started yet that still needs to happen before the 2024 draft. Let's project what the stats might look like during the 23-24 season, factoring in last season's stats but also taking a very close look at the context behind those stats, how the stats will likely jump from freshman to sophomore season, factor in other changes that could affect their stats in the upcoming season (players who have left or been added to the roster, injuries that the player either has now or no longer has, etc.)

I mentioned Flip has a case for maybe being a late lottery pick at this point. But notice I was careful to not put any conclusive labels on him or his draft position. It's just not a good idea to do that this early in the draft cycle. Even with player comps. Player comps can be an overly simplistic way to evaluate players. Players are so different, they develop at different rates, have such different team contexts that most player comps don't end up being accurate anyways so it's kind of pointless to even make them. But they become even more pointless when we're making those comps this early in the draft cycle - when we have an entire basketball season that hasn't even started yet that needs to happen before the 2024 draft.

[165bows]

Hmm hadn’t thought of it that way but maybe Bobby Portis isn’t the worst comp for him. Not that it’s super close but just that I’m not sure who would be closer.

Was kind of a crap draft but Portis prob goes late lotto if you redrafted 2015 in hindsight.

[Hal14]

This mock was April 7, so it was after the entire NCAA tournament had been completed. Filipowski goes 19th..
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2023/04/07/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-tops-list/11617392002/

This one was on April 10, the day before Flip announced he was returning to Duke..he goes 20th pick..
https://clutchpoints.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-30-picks-ncaa-tournament

And the 2023 draft class was much better in the top 20 picks than 2024..