Duke4life831 wrote:Hal14 wrote:Duke4life831 wrote:I do think he will make progressions in these areas and that is why I think he will be a late 1st round pick. But we're talking major progressions in areas that is needed to be a lotto guy and ya I dont think double hip surgery at this age is a positive.
Well, he was projected to go 17th prior to announcing that he was returning to Duke:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10068651-2023-nba-mock-draft-predictions-entering-ncaa-tournamentSo if you factor in progression in the areas that you mentioned and also factor in that this is a weaker draft class in the top 15-20 picks, I feel pretty comfortable with him as a late lottery guy at this point.
I mean, I don't even know if there's 8 guys I would put clearly over Flip at this point. Even the guys I have ranked in the 2 through 8 range have some major question marks and some uncertainty around how they will scale up this season vs tough competition. Guys like Collier, Wagner, Edwards, Holland, Almansa - how will they play this season vs competition that is much better than any comp they have faced before? What will their role be this season on their team and how will that impact their draft position? We have less of those concerns with Flip and there aren't exactly a bunch of other returners in this draft class that scream lotto pick either..
That is a mock draft before the combine, hell it was before March Madness. Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, and Nick Smith are all top 10 in that mock draft. Cam and Nick Smith ended up going in the 20s. And just a quick look at the guys predicted right after Flip
18. Colby Jones: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
19. Rayan Rupert: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
20. Brice Sensabaugh: Ended up drafted 28th
21. GG: Ended up drafted in the 2nd round
So those mock drafts really mean nothing on where Flip may have been taken in this past draft.
And to be clear, I got no issue that you have Flip high. Again for me I view him locked in at the 5 spot and he has never shown to be a rim protector. What non rim protecting 5s are starters in today's NBA? They tend to be offensive hubs like Jokic, Sabonis, Sengun. And Flip didnt show that kind of versatility or efficiency last year. And no way Im thinking about using a lotto pick on him if he doesnt show either of those things.
What's your point? The NBA draft is unpredictable. You could look at a mock from the day before the draft and no one had Josh Primo going 12 overall, just like no one had Sharife Cooper going in the 2nd round.
Most mocks right up until the draft had Gradey Dick going top 10. Every mock under the sun right up until the draft had Cam Whitmore going top 10. Most mock right up until the draft had Nick Smith going top 15.
Colby went 2nd round but was considered a steal in the 2nd round - many people saw him as a 1st round pick.
Wow, an 8 spot difference for Brice, no way! That's nothing. There's basically no difference between the 20th pick and 28th. And there were mocks right before the draft that had Brice going in the teens.
There's always exceptions. And some guys draft stock can change a little bit as you get closer to the draft. But the bottom line is, Flip was projected 17th before he announced he was returning to school.
Also, we seem to be talking in circles here because a few posts ago I just wrote in depth on why I wouldn't pigeon-hole Flip into being just a 5 at the next level and how he could certainly end up being a guy who can slide between the 4 and the 5 (that type of versatility would give him even more value) yet you continue to go on about how he's just a 5.
Your criteria for a 5 that they need to be either a rim protector or an "offensive hub" seems odd. I wouldn't really consider Kevon Looney or Dwight Powell to be either of those things. Or Al Horford. Yet all 3 have been starting C on teams that made deep playoff runs. Again, the guy who is maybe the closest comp for Flip (Olynyk) plays quite a bit at the 4 and isn't much of a rim protector either. I'm pretty sure that the career he has had, he has definitely returned lottery pick value.
Sabonis? Have you seen his assist numbers or shooting numbers at Gonzaga? He was definitely not someone that was seen as an "offensive hub" at the time. Only a 7% assist rate as a freshman (Flip had 11% as a freshman while playing a tougher schedule) and only an 11% assist rate as a sophomore. Didn't shoot any 3's as a freshman and attempted less than 1 three a game as a sophomore. Is it really that farfetched for Filipowski to develop into a slightly worse passing but better shooting version of Sabonis?
Is a slightly worse passing but better shooting version of Sabonis, simply Nikola Vucevic? Is there any reason why Filipowski can't be a Vucevic type of guy in the NBA? Even if Flip ends up being like Olynyk, but with better handles, is that not worth a lottery pick in a draft class that's weak at the top?
Sengun? He wasn't really considered an offensive hub as a prospect. He was a below average shooter who showed some shooting flashes, decent passing, who had really good post moves. But the question was, how would he translate to the NBA where low post scoring was becoming less and less valuable? Even if Flip doesn't end up being quite as good a passer as Sengun, but he ends up being a better shooter and taller. Is that not worth a lottery pick? Sengun is certainly on track to return lottery value..
Jokic was also not considered an offensive hub when he was drafted. Like Flip, he showed some pretty passing flashes before he was drafted but that's about it. So marking Flip down as a prospect and saying that he's not an offensive hub like Jokic, Sengun or Sabonis - yet Sengun/sabonis/jokic weren't even offensive hubs before they were drafted seems odd. And we still have an entire season left to play before the 2024 draft, so Flip could certainly develop more and showcase more of that offensive hub stuff this season - especially not that he'll be healthy and won't playing with 2 injured hips.
Wendell Carter Jr hasn't been that good in terms of rim protection in the NBA. And I don't think anyone would call him an offensive hub. Yet he's a solid NBA starting big man. Is it really that farfetched for Filipowski to end up being a taller WCJ with better handles and perhaps slightly better shooting?
Lastly, we need to also remember that with all of these evaluations, the draft is still a YEAR away. So it doesn't really make sense to look at what a player is TODAY (or even worse, look at what he did last season) and just assume that is the player he will be on draft night and those are his stats on draft night 2024. This far from the draft, there needs to be a level of projection, where we are projecting what might or what probably will happen this upcoming season to alter that prospect' draft position. That's obviously tricky to do, but it's the reality of the situation. The way mock drafts and big boards look today, is VERY different than the way they will look in March, or in June. The reason why I say this is for 2 reasons:
1) Again, there needs to be a level of projection, where we are projecting what might or what probably will happen this upcoming season to alter that prospect' draft position. it doesn't really make sense to look at what a player is TODAY (or even worse, look at what he did last season) and just assume that is the player he will be on draft night and those are his stats on draft night 2024.
2) When it's this far away from the draft, we need to be very careful when making such conclusive statements like "oh, this guy is a late 1st round pick" or "this guy is a 5, and there's no way he could ever play the 4" or "I need a 5 to do x or Y and if he can't do either, then he can never be a starter in the NBA". Like, woah, pump the brakes here - take it easy. There's an entire season that hasn't even starter yet that needs to happen before the draft! We also have to be careful with statements like "his assist to turnover ratio is this" or "his TS% is that". Like um, that was last season. There's another entire season that hasn't started yet that still needs to happen before the 2024 draft. Let's project what the stats might look like during the 23-24 season, factoring in last season's stats but also taking a very close look at the context behind those stats, how the stats will likely jump from freshman to sophomore season, factor in other changes that could affect their stats in the upcoming season (players who have left or been added to the roster, injuries that the player either has now or no longer has, etc.)
I mentioned Flip has a case for maybe being a late lottery pick at this point. But notice I was careful to not put any conclusive labels on him or his draft position. It's just not a good idea to do that this early in the draft cycle. Even with player comps. Player comps can be an overly simplistic way to evaluate players. Players are so different, they develop at different rates, have such different team contexts that most player comps don't end up being accurate anyways so it's kind of pointless to even make them. But they become even more pointless when we're making those comps this early in the draft cycle - when we have an entire basketball season that hasn't even started yet that needs to happen before the 2024 draft.